Wanna know the truth?

Discussion in 'Dice Influencing' started by tabletop123, Nov 11, 2016.

  1. DeMango, Nov 12, 2016

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Another Home Run by TD!
     
    #41
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  2. tabletop123, Nov 12, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Once again, it takes Iron Clad discipline to bet ONLY on yourself! The remedy is to ONLY play at the most opportune times (empty tables, or near empty tables)!

    I have limited my Play to Monday thru Weds, & even though I don't always win, I get all of the SHOOTING opportunities that I need to HOPEFULLY put together a successful hand/s!

    You KNOW that you have arrived ( iron clad discipline) when you can WALK AWAY after only ONE successful hand! Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know...... Grafstein says that you should NEVER walk away from a hot table..........WATCH ME!
     
    #42
  3. Linaway, Nov 12, 2016

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    TT,

    Shooting quirks has a lot to do with your scenario as well as a sound dice property knowledge. There is far more to dice tha the top numbers. You have the material, you know of what I mention.
     
    #43
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  4. tabletop123, Nov 12, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Yes, & Dice Speak has been working MARVELOUSLY! It's like the American Express Card......Don't leave home without it!
     
    #44
  5. betwthelines, Nov 12, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    perhaps if you would continue with this and instead of attributing to him things that he is NOT saying or mischaracterizing his points, comprehend rather what he actually IS saying, then you would see what you are saying here much more often than you have...

    this is NOT saying that you need to---or even that you should---agree with anything that he says but only the merest minimum courtesy that you refrain from ascribing to him things that he has not said.

    and it is not just simple courtesy that will benefit you...mischaracterizing and misquoting those with whom you disagree at a minimum detracts from and more frequentily invalidates any positions that you wish to convey.

    good job. keep it up.

    tom p
     
    #45
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  6. betwthelines, Nov 12, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    most unfortunately goatcabin is no longer posting here but i sure wish he was still around to confirm or deny or clarify my memory of these things below...

    i have implored skulker, quite impressively facile at such things, to see if he could locate these threads from The Before Time but thus far it has been crickets...being solicitous of his time and/or interest, this does engender my complete understanding however...

    a highly regarded math guy, steve i believe, on the old rgc group once posted that after a million rolls of betting only pass line with double odds that about 12% would be ahead...

    everyone, myself and goatcabin included, thought that this percentage was way too high...this actually prompted goatcabin to run some wingcraps sims...

    he ran 10,000 trials uvva million rolls each (yes, virginia one billion rolls...this was as easy as dropping a hat for him) and betting only pass with 2x odds---again please bear in mind all this is strictly from distant memory---just slightly under 5% of the 10,000 players were ahead after a million rolls.

    he then ran the same trial betting only the 6 (or 8, i forget which) and something close to just under 3% of the 10,000 players were ahead arter a million rolls...

    then he did that same betting only the hard 8 (or 6) and --- i think this is quite telling, don't you think? ---
    ZERO PERCENT of 10,000 players were ahead arter a mil.

    --------------------------------------------

    you can question my memory and accuracy of things here, even aver that i am completely full of shit: no problem...but I DO NOT WANT ANY SHIT about a "million rolls being unrealistic" over a lifetime...

    i have kept unusually accurate track and have PERSONALLY witnessed and bet on over a million rolls at the local joint alone and this just since nov 2003...add in the approximately 90,000 rolls at non-local places since 2001 (extrapolating from local figures...time at the table has not been tracked in the non-local numbers) and i am well over a mil...

    AND THIS TRACKING JUST SINCE 2001!...i have been betting bank craps since 1974 although it is true that in the earlier years (first 15 or so) with nevada having the only game in the country play was much less frequent and visits 1 to 5 times annually...those youthful sessions were absolute marathons however.

    yes, yes, this amount of play might be embarrassing---hell shameful even maybe---but it is what it is.

    tom p

    "you cannot EXPECT to win...but you CAN play tough."
    --tom p, 1974
     
    #46
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2016
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  7. KokomoJoe4, Nov 12, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Unrealistic I know, but easy. If one were to bet ONLY a single contract bet at a time, with no odds to introduce more variance, NO ONE would be ahead after a million rolls.

    If I remember correctly, you are at something like 15 standard deviations from the mean to be at a break even point after 1 million rolls. Almost a certain loser.

    Introduction of odds certainly improves one's chances for success mathematically. Then again, so does increasing the size of your next bet. ;)
     
    #47
  8. betwthelines, Nov 12, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    Not Correct

    at least the sims suggest otherwise.

    something like 3% of 10,000 players were ahead after a million rolls betting only the 6 (or 8)...a very similar percentage would thus expect to be ahead with the actually slightly lower HA of the contract bet
    Correct

    almost a certain loser...the sims indicated over 97% would lose (again assuming the 6 bet only results would be fairly close to the contract bet only, a sim that was not actually run) .

    also i am a little unclear about the application of "standard deviation" here (or elsewhere for that matter...i "think" i vaguely understand sd and know it is relevant but have zero clue as to how to figure it & unclear as to applying its measure of significance)...for 97% of the players it apparently was not manifested: they were indeed not ahead...i could be wrong in my thinking on this sd thing but it seems to focus only on the tiny fraction that were winners...
    Correct.

    again judging only from the sims (and assuming that my memory is not too far off) adding 2x odds increased the percentage of winners from about 3 to about 5% vs a contract bet only...further higher odds would presumably increase the percentage of winners.
    Not Correct

    or at least an incorrect assumption

    every roll has identical probabilities...increasing or decreasing the bet, the results are going to "come out in the wash" over the course of a sample as large as one million rolls...however increasing the odds bet would presumably and certainly theoretically increase the percentage of winners.

    tom p
     
    #48
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2016
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  9. TDVegas, Nov 12, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    10 billion rolls?...not 1 billion?

    Zero on the hardways?....oooof.

    Buy 4/10 or 5/9--6%....4% HA.
    Wondering....1 in 100?
     
    #49
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2016
  10. TDVegas, Nov 12, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    The only thing I can think of why a DI would wager on a chucker (Randy) is if his own game has been shit on the table and the chucker hit 3-4 points...he might figure "fuck it....when in Rome".

    I don't see it being a lack of patience or lack of focus or seeking more action rationalization.
     
    #50
  11. betwthelines, Nov 12, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    well whatever the hell 10,000 x 1,000,000 is...alotta rolls anyway!

    well i'll be damned...my phone calcliator does show 10 billion...hokey smokes, rocky! i wonder how long that took to do? not all that long i bet...

    i personally have just not been able to figure it out how to do it on wingcraps, patient tutorials by steen notwithstanding

    tom p
     
    #51
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  12. betwthelines, Nov 12, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    yep.

    in my mind this just shows ta go ya that high HA bets are going to kick your ass "long term"...

    arter a million rolls with 10,000 players betting only the 6 (1.52% ha) about 300 were ahead...a pass line or contract bet only (1.41%) presumably would yield similar results (such a sim was not actually run)...but a pass only (1.41%) and taking 2x odds (0.0%) saw almost 500 still ahead arter a mil

    the stimulation taking the hard 6 only (HA 9.09%) indicated ZERO...NONE...NADA out of 10,000 players still ahead after a million...

    ((i disremember: it might have been the 8 and/or the hard 8 and not the 6))

    quite revealing, methinks

    tom p

    "you cannot EXPECT to win...but you CAN play tough"
    --tom p, 1974
     
    #52
  13. betwthelines, Nov 13, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    ----some additional information to goatcabin's 10,000 trials uvva million rolls----
    i myself have some time ago completed a trial of one million rolls playing Tough Craps, which most often involved limiting the pass and come bets to 4 (but far from "always"...actually from 1 [at the bitter end of a stake {bankroll}] to 5 when the stake is at a certain status)...i cannot tell you exactly but the odds bets probably averaged 3x to 4x...IOW a bit more than the double odds of goatcabin's stimulation...(TC is less concerned with "x-odds" than with actual dollar amounts)

    in short there was substantially more action with these million rolls than goatcabin's single pass bet with odds

    this was mostly wingcraps although pre-pc & pre-wingcraps and even a few times when my computer was on the fritz there were approximately 90,000+ rolled into a felt-lined, cardbored box using casino dice...great care was taken to insure these rolls were random, shaking them up, etc...

    with one completed trial one hundred percent are ahead after a million rolls! +$21,181, 1,000,051 rolls.

    700,862 rolls into the second mil the results <sigh> are not so sanguine!

    tom p
     
    #53
  14. KokomoJoe4, Nov 13, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Introducing larger bet size as one is losing is a much better way to: (1) improve one's chances to get into the black from the red, and (2) lose one's funds more quickly as he is losing.

    When playing a -1.41% against wager, chances for (2) are better, but (1) is nevertheless true.
     
    #54
  15. basicstrategy777, Nov 13, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    You math people are funny.

    777
     
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  16. TDVegas, Nov 13, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    The math works short term and long term. I understand the counter argument "you are only at the table a short time"....throw the math out....but...

    The reality is you are not at the table a short time. Overall, added up, those hours become days..become weeks....become months. Try playing a month straight non stop and see how you fare.

    Those that simply toss the math are missing a key component to gambling.
     
    #56
  17. Onautopilot, Nov 13, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    Yea, and the funny part is.....the math people and the non math people win and lose much the same, but sometimes it's nice to know the amount of luck one needs to win. In fact, most math people probably don't even play the game. :)
     
    #57
  18. basicstrategy777, Nov 13, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    If you pay no attention to the math....but pay attntion to 'the voices'...you win more. It makes sense, cause, you can't change the math.

    777
     
    #58
  19. basicstrategy777, Nov 13, 2016

    basicstrategy777

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    So it evens out ?

    777
     
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  20. Onautopilot, Nov 13, 2016

    Onautopilot

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    If one truly has precognition, they would not need to play craps, just buy a lotto ticket.
     
    #60
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