JPM revisited

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by The Midnight Skulker, Jun 12, 2020.

  1. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 12, 2020

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I was introduced to Jim’s Parlay Method (JPM) by Jim Ferr, its developer, in ye olde Usenet rec.gambling.craps newsgroup in the late 1990’s. Jim originally claimed it worked best with 3-6 players at the table but after further testing renounced that claim, which caused yours truly some embarrassment since I had defended it as a possibility from a withering attack by the legendary Mason, the newsgroup’s resident curmudgeon. (As an aside I will claim I alone held Mason to a draw over the life of the newsgroup, winning three rounds while losing two, one of which, this one, was a two-pointer.)

    Vanilla JPM is a definition of simplicity, which is why it is the method I show at the table to players who ask me how to play the game. Betting only Pass or Don’t Pass the player bets that the decision before last will repeat, a strategy known as avant-dernier. (Obviously the player must “sit out” and only observe two Line decisions upon stepping up to a table.) A base betting unit (e.g. $5) is established and progressed (in terms of units) 1-2-4-5-5-5-5-… on wins, dropping back to a single unit after every loss. (IOW it is a winning parlay progression capped at five units.) IMHO the method has staying power, provides a decent chance of showing a profit, and can get the adrenaline flowing when the dice co-operate.

    The method looks for a trend of passes (PPPP…), a trend of misses (MMMM…), or a trend of alternating passes and misses (PMPM…). Jim later added an advanced betting strategy to take advantage of alternating pairs of passes and misses (PPMM…) also, but I have never given it much attention and lack the interest to do so now. What I have always had an interest in doing is incorporating the best bet in the house, odds, into JPM’s progression. Hence during my sabbatical from the forum (and without the distraction of open tables thanks to COVID-19) I have to the sessions of sweet silent thought summoned up remembrance of things past, and sighed the lack of many a thing I sought, and with old woes new wait my dear time’s waste … (Sorry, got carried away. Be thankful it was William Shakespeare I summoned and not Lewis Carroll.)

    Because the player is putting up the long end of the odds, winning lay progressions require no small amount of analysis for oh, beamish player, beware of the day, / if your Snark…er, dice be a Boojum! For then / your profits will suddenly vanish away, / and never be met with again! [OK, no thanks necessary.] I may tackle this side if e’er I actually go Snark hunting, but for the nonce I will let this sleeping Boojum lie, laying no odds on the dark side.

    A front-side progression is relatively trivial: merely keep the flat portion at the minimum required to bring the total up to the level called for with odds. (For example, at a double odds table, the second bet would be 1+1 (one unit flat, one unit odds), the third bet would be 1½+2½, the fourth and subsequent bets would be 2+3, although a fifth bet of 2+4 could be added to the progression.) Of course there is a fly in the ointment: natural wins. (A comeout craps signals a return to one unit.)

    The simplest way to handle a comeout 7|11 would be to ignore it (i.e. count it as no decision and toll the progression). I am loathe to take this approach for two reasons: first, it runs contrary to the philosophy behind the method, which is to use “house money” to compound profits during a winning streak, and second, I would be increda-bummed summoning up remembrance [Had to make up for the slang.] of John Greenleaf Whittier: “Of all the words of tongue and pen / the saddest are these: ‘It might have been.’” OTOH I want to avoid having to consult a pocket calculator to figure out what to bet on the next roll, so I split the difference: add half a unit to the flat if betting Pass after a natural winner, then take odds to make the total bet match what the progression calls for or to hold the loss for the series to one unit, whichever is smaller. [Edit addition: colored text.]

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

    Here are some examples. All bets are Pass. (Note that multiple natural winners can muddy the waters only when betting Pass.) Double odds table.

    Example 1
    1. First bet 1 unit. Winner (natural or make point).
    2. Second bet 1 unit. Natural winner.
    3. Third bet 1½ units. Natural winner.
    4. Fourth bet 2 units. Point established. Take 2½ units odds.
    Example 2
    1. First bet 1 unit. Winner (natural or make point).
    2. Second bet 1 unit. Point established. Take 1 unit odds.
    3. Third bet 2 units. Natural winner.
    4. Fourth bet 2½ units. Point established. Take 2½ units odds.
    Example 3
    1. First bet 1 unit. Winner (natural or make point).
    2. Second bet 1 unit. Natural winner.
    3. Third bet 1½ units. Point established. Take 1½ units odds.
    4. Fourth bet 2 units. Natural winner. (Note 3 units odds would have been taken if point had been established.
    5. Bets now become a matter of taste. I personally would continue to add half a unit (or maybe even half of the winnings) to my flat bet after natural winners and take 3 units odds. Alternately a half or even a full unit could be added to the flat bet and odds reduced to keep the total bet at 5 units.
     
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    Last edited: Jun 13, 2020
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  2. KokomoJoe4, Jun 12, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

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    Agreed, this is a method of play that gives the player a decent shot at a win. The reason why this is true might not be obvious to all, but what jumps out at me is that the play involves only a single bet. OK, make that possibly two bets, line and odds.

    What many players seem not to realize is that the reason why the game of craps shows a very low house edge relates specifically to the line bets. Giving the house an additional 1.5 to 10% edge by placing an another bet will get you more action and might work to your advantage, but it probably won't.

    I have always thought that play should attempt to do two things: (1) keep losses minimized, and (2) maximize your wins while not playing so aggressively as to turn a win into a loss.

    Because 22.2% of all Pass come outs are expected winners, the parlay is an excellent way to turn 1 unit into 4 or 8 or 16 without touching chips in the rail.

    I'm with you on the wrong way odds MS. Although the best bet on the table, I'm not laying them.
     
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  3. random_roller, Jun 13, 2020

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    You mean BBBB, PPPP, or BPBP. Okay, there's hope for you yet, lol.
     
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  4. The Midnight Skulker, Jun 13, 2020

    The Midnight Skulker

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    The advanced strategy gets a little messy, particularly for those with a bad stutter; they have to bet their sweet b-bip-pee.
     
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  5. yacraps, Jun 14, 2020

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    I remember basketball jones, but now I may have to refer to yuh as baccarat Roller :)
     
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  6. yacraps, Jun 14, 2020

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

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    [email protected]#$king Midnight..LOL

    Midnight I have Jims play along with other authors plays including your transcripts saved to my favorites..I had the lap top on my lap fell asleep when I woke up the lap top was in pieces....on the floor :oops:... gosh dang it :mad:
     
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  7. The Midnight Skulker, Jul 22, 2021

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I have done some additional remembrance summoning and concluded that my original implementation of taking odds to JPM was overly complicated. I was “locked in” to the 1,2,4,5,5,5,… progression and went through some contortions to maintain it when the natural front-side winner fly landed in the ointment. I now think the following progressions – note the plural – are a better, and in the end simpler, way of dealing with that fly.

    The primary progression of 1,2,4,5,5,5,… remains unchanged, but it now governs only Don’t Pass bets (on which I still do not lay odds). The Pass Line progression becomes (“flat”+”odds”) 1+0,1+1,1+3,1+4,1+4,1+4,…, which, you will notice, is the same progression, but for total units at risk. Both progressions are progressed on a fly-less win regardless of which side that win was on, so how much to bet where is still easily determined.

    What do I do if the odds I wish to take exceed those the table allows? It has been a decade or more since I have encountered a table with less than 3x/4x/5x odds, but if I encountered that situation which, for example, is possible with that multiplier on points of 4 and 10, I would place the point for the excess of what I could take as odds.

    Meanwhile, back in the ointment, rather than progress on a natural Pass Line winner I merely add a unit to the flat portion. This means that I can no longer deduce how much to bet after some number of natural Pass Line winners from the flat portion of the bet that won; instead I have to look at the odds portion. As I continue to win I would leave my flat bet at its increased level while progressing my odds to the maximum of four units. Of course this means that during a hot trend (PPPP) I may have more than five units total at risk, but it also means I have won at least four consecutive bets.

    During a choppy trend (PMPM), where bets are alternating between Pass Line and Don’t Pass, winning a Pass Line bet naturally brings up a unique situation: I did not have a chance to take odds and therefore did not win as much as you would have if a point had been established and made. I personally am loathe to risk losing more than one unit on any individual series, so to keep things simple I make my Don’t Pass bet one unit more than the Pass Line bet I just won. Of course that means that I might be making a bet of three units, which is not part of the standard JPM progression. Furthermore, if that Don’t bet wins I make my subsequent Pass Line bet for only one unit more than the bet I just won.

    The following examples are taken from the OP, but are reworked assuming a choppy trend with this new (and dare I say improved?) method for taking odds on a 2x odds table. (Note that with such a low odds multiplier we know there is a real possibility of wanting to exceed that amount, so we increase our flat bet at need to avoid having to make a place bet to get the “odds” we want.)


    Example 1

    1. Bet 1 unit Pass Line. Winner (natural or make point).
    2. Bet 2 units Don’t Pass. Natural winner (non-bar craps).
    3. Bet 2 units Pass Line. Natural winner (7|11). (Would have taken 3 units odds.)
    4. Bet 3 units Don’t Pass. Point established and missed.
    5. Bet 3 units Pass Line. Point established; take 3 units odds.
    Example 2
    1. Bet 1 unit Don’t Pass. Winner (natural or miss point).
    2. Bet 1 unit Pass Line. Point established. Take 1 unit odds.
    3. Bet 4 units Don’t Pass. Natural winner.
    4. Bet 2 units Pass Line. Point established. Take 3 units odds.

    Example 3
    1. Bet 1 unit Don’t Pass. Winner (natural or miss point).
    2. Bet 1 unit Pass Line. Natural winner. (Would have taken 1 unit odds.)
    3. Bet 2 units Don’t Pass. Winner (natural or miss point).
    4. Bet 2 units Pass Line. Natural winner. (Would have taken 3 units odds).
    5. Bet 3 units Don’t Pass.

    Finally, one thing I may not have made clear in the OP is how to treat a comeout bar number (12, or 2 in northern Nevada) when betting Don’t. I count it as a decision for determining what bet to make next, but do not progress.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
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