First Harass and Belittle him, then "borrow" the Wizard's Material

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Apr 10, 2021.

  1. DeMango, May 5, 2021

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Thanks TD, you get it. Best description I could have written without getting technical. And no two tables have the exact same bounce characteristics is spot on. The best use of BoneTracker is as you say, the use of roll data from specific tables.
     
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  2. twodicebilly, May 5, 2021

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    TDv

    Bone tracker like smart craps and Win craps, all take your data and compile it and if you use the same
    set it gives you a percentage of how many hardways you get or how many shots end up with an on
    axis finish. Over time it can measure any improvements you make against random. Demango takes
    it a little further and they can show buy their standards if you are random or have an advantage.

    Great stuff, nothing wrong with that, i spent 15 years now with that stuff....love to do it.

    But i have to confess, i am not the same guy that 15 years ago on the Wov site was trying to indicate
    dice control is 100% certain. Now i admit to not being as smart as i would like to be, but even I began
    to question why people that could shoot real well were still losing so much, and why are your best shots
    always a seven, and why did i have a good many long hands and still feel at times i was struggling.

    Here is the deal, if i keep track of all the walleye i catch over 10 years fishing all over the midwest, and i look
    back my average is pretty good, i must be a better than average fisherman.....what does that average
    tell me about fishing Pike lake , or Pelican Lake or Red Lake....... Leech lake.....???? does that average show
    that i can catch 100 a day on Red and maybe 5 on Pelican no it does not.

    I found that just for me and maybe I am not as good as Demango or others, but for me, my results show clearly
    that I do much better on some tables than others, i do worse on high and high bouncy tables like Golden Nugget
    or Paris, or Riverside or Bowler, or Keshena than i do at Green valley, Scarlet Pearl, Boom town, Avi or
    Monte Carlo or Aquarious.....that is because i dont have to adjust my shot, it already works on those tables.

    You dont need Bone Tracker to tell you more times than not if i play at Paris i get my ass kicked and more times
    than not when i play at Aquarious i win....

    TDB
     
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    Last edited: May 5, 2021
  3. KokomoJoe4, May 5, 2021

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I have also praised DeMango for his sensible approach for analyzing results at specific table locations he plays on.

    My beef is not at all with this, but rather with his method for analyzing his data. Yes the information concerning top number results is accurate, if it is written down and then put into excel. Yes, he uses a spreadsheet to do his mathematical analysis, which is actually nothing more than an accurate ratio of box number(s) to hand ending sevens. As such, a spreadsheet is not needed, but whatever, use the spreadsheet because it will not miscount.

    An analysis of this data can be accurately done for every bet the shooter makes. Each of these wagers has different statistical expectations. All are negative expectation. When calculations show the player results to be better than expectation, he has better results than expected for the bet in question. However, calculated results CHANGE with the input of new data. If results have been and continue to be better than expectation, the player might call himself an advantage player or perhaps even a so-called DI.

    I do not dispute any of this, except perhaps for the noun used. I would say the player is definitely lucky and perhaps good.

    My problem is with none of the above issues. It is simply with using incorrect and inaccurate accounts of being "on-axis" to explain your dice results, because to properly analyze dice results, four dice faces must be considered, in exactly the same way they are used to properly describe the starting set being used.
     
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  4. TDVegas, May 5, 2021

    TDVegas

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    Again...as long as the method dictates an advantage AND is in some way repeatable.

    I don’t get involved in on axis, off axis, permutations, hierarchy, etc....because I know nothing on the subject

    As far as bone tracker, I would ONLY care about ONE thing...is the 1,000 roll data repeatable in the sense of holding the advantage. How one arrives there is not the point.

    Seeing how not much of anything has been proven in a case study that I know of....I would give equal billing to any method or claim. On, off, change sets, keep sets, low throw, high throw, bone tracker. I would not speak in definitive’s UNLESS it was clearly noted as a personal claim.

    I would object to the person saying “you don’t know what you’re doing but I do”....only because, as I said, because dice influence isn’t comparable to the advantage that card counting ensures. Mathematically known beforehand.

    Isn’t it more of a belief? Even going so far as to say...yes you have your data, but is it repeatable for next session, next session, next session? That’s what I mean when I say “belief”. You believe the next set of rolls WILL yield the wanted results....but ultimately, you don’t know.

    If it repeats...you’re off to the races. Congrats.
     
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  5. TDVegas, May 5, 2021

    TDVegas

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    If it was me...I’d probably give my data to someone with strong mathematical, analytical skills (wizard of Vegas?) and have him come up with “best strategy” for my 200, 300, 500, 1,000 roll block of repeatable data.

    Give me a best case betting scenario.
     
    #45
  6. bonetek, May 6, 2021

    bonetek

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    In spite of all of these "methods" of measuring "DI", the fact is that 99.999% of DI's can't put a grand on the inside numbers and leaveit up until they make at least one or two hits before regressing, because they cannot rely on their "methods" to avoid the "risk of financial ruin".
     
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  7. TDVegas, May 6, 2021

    TDVegas

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    I don’t think anyone can predict they won’t roll a 7 out....on any roll....beyond a guess. If someone knows they won’t roll a 7 on any 1 roll, I would like to make friends.
     
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  8. von duck, May 7, 2021

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    So, are you one of the .001% that CAN? :cool: Just you know, to clarify. :)
     
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  9. Mssthis1, May 7, 2021

    Mssthis1

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    Even with an advantage a person would need a 2 million bankroll minimum, plus the intestinal fortitude to weather the money swings to bet a grand on the inside coming out of the gate.

    The number commonly used for card counters is $2000 total bankroll for every $5 you plan on betting. I have learned from experience that number is too low.

    I'm talking about total bankroll or liquidity, not what you bring to the table for one session. That number will be much lower than your total bankroll.
     
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  10. DeMango, May 7, 2021

    DeMango

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    Do you know why this will never happen? Some folks are fine gathering results of a practice table. Taking the notebook out to the table does not happen except in very rare cases. I only know of two which includes myself.
     
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  11. DeMango, May 7, 2021

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    The answer is going dark, only making one bet. I'm thinking $500 bankroll for a $15 line bet, single odds, D'Alembert progression, betting on no one else. 1% Risk of Ruin, no di involved. Iron willpower required.
     
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  12. twodicebilly, May 7, 2021

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    missthis1

    The question is what is the point. What will you turn yourself into, i dont get it.
    If you play craps, like most of us do, then we sure as hell dont have to worry about where
    our next meal is coming from. And if you worked hard enough to accomplish that why would
    you take any chance of placing yourself in that position just to prove something on the craps
    table.

    NO one beats the table all the time, no one, and if your playing for big money, even short
    losing steaks add up...it easy to lose $10,000- $30,000 seen guys do that many time. also seen
    large wins.....since as TDV says you can never predict the next roll, why put yourself in that
    position .

    Maybe not everyone, but most people have a point where the cost of what you do will affect
    how you do it.


    tdb
     
    #52
  13. ChumpChange, May 8, 2021

    ChumpChange

    ChumpChange Member

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    I threw eight sixes and six eights on one turn on Shoot To Win Bubble Craps. I was only betting a couple bucks on the 8, but I'm betting the other players were betting $50 minimum on every number, since it's quarter night at the casino. There's a $195 line bet max with 2X Odds, and a $400 PB max at this machine.
     
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