Can You Beat Random Games with Betting Strategies?

Discussion in 'Other Casino Games' started by FrankScoblete, Dec 8, 2015.

  1. FrankScoblete, Dec 8, 2015

    FrankScoblete

    FrankScoblete Member

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  2. KokomoJoe4, Dec 8, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Excellent summaries re gambling in general and the negative expectation involved.

    IMO also great advice on craps play. Minimal number of line bets with whatever odds you can afford.

    Singing the same old song, my only disagreement is with the concept of advantage play craps, which I don't believe is happening. It's all random, and there will be ups and downs.
     
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  3. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 8, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Betting systems/strategies/methods cannot overcome the house advantage (HA) built into a game, but just what is the HA? It is the percentage of the total amount wagered on a particular proposition that the house expects to find its way into its coffers after a large number of bets. IOW it is a long-term expectation.

    What betting systems/strategies/methods can do is change "the shape of possible futures" (Alan Shank's, aka goatcabin's, words), the way in which that long-term expectation is realized. Some betting systems/strategies/methods seek sessions with frequent though small wins at the expense of the occasional disaster; others seek the opposite, accepting frequent though small losses with an occasional bonanza; still others try to maximize playing time; and then there's everything in between. Lamentably, in the end the liars figure but the figures don't lie: absent advantage play (i.e. the mathematical foundation of the HA holds) the house wins pretty close to what the numbers say it is expected to.
     
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  4. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    I was on a dead game when a new player came up and asked how to play. The stickman put the stick on the pass line and said 2,3,12 you lose. put the stick on the don't and said 7,11 you lose. put it on the field and said 5,6,7,8 you lose. put it the come 2,3,12 you lose. Put it on the box numbers and said 7 you lose. pointed at the prop box and said if it doesn't come like the picture on one roll you lose.

    The player looked entirely confused and asked "how do you win?"
    Stickman said "that's just it my friend you cant win but order a beer and throw me a $100 and I'll show how to have a great time and you might just get lucky."
     
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    Last edited: Dec 8, 2015
  5. Bases loaded, Dec 8, 2015

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

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    1) Frank, another good article, thanks.

    2) 7UWIN, I like the Stickman's explanation, I will use it going forward when people ask me how craps is played.
     
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  6. TDVegas, Dec 8, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Ha!! Throw this one on the DI board and you'll get a bunch of looks like when a dog tilts his head that he doesn't understand you.
     
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  7. DeMango, Dec 8, 2015

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Bet that dealer was NFL! (Not for long)
     
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  8. tabletop123, Dec 8, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    The Dealer said: "That's just it, you can't win " HILARIOUS!
     
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  9. Craps Poopshoot, Dec 9, 2015

    Craps Poopshoot

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    All any System can do is: minimize your losses and maximize your wins. Surprisingly, players with good money management and discipline tend to win more than they lose with any decent grinding Systems.

    Frank view on gambling is that you have a bucket of money with a small hole in it. In where you bet a dollar and win 96 cents. Frank tends to contently forget about volatility and does not believe that casino games get streaky, including Craps.

    Advantage Play is rare and often fleeting, and even with it, there is no guarantee that the volatility will be on your side!
     
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  10. FrankScoblete, Dec 9, 2015

    FrankScoblete

    FrankScoblete Member

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    "Frank view on gambling is that you have a bucket of money with a small hole in it. In where you bet a dollar and win 96 cents. Frank tends to contently forget about volatility and does not believe that casino games get streaky, including Craps."

    Those aren't my ideas. You must be referencing someone else.

    Streaks are abundant in games, including craps. Great or small volatility is abundant in many games or in betting certain bets in many games.

    But streaks can't be accurately predicted in order to win on such streaks over time. Streaks will happen but in a random game we don't know which ones or how long they will last.

    I'd be happy to send you a free copy of my new craps book I Am a Dice Controller: Inside the World of Advantage-Play Craps. Just PM me your address or email me at [email protected].
     
    #10

  11. Liman

    Liman Member

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    random streaks are why 99.9% of any of us win at craps.
     
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  12. tabletop123, Dec 9, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Realize Liman doesn't need confirmation, but I 've had conversations with two board members that have played craps with him. The guy has an uncanny knack for winning.

    Contrary to what Tdvegas speaks, SOME people are just naturally lucky, & I think that Liman (not to say that he's not a knowledgeable Crapster) fits that mold! Continued Success at the tables.
     
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  13. BBinWI, Dec 9, 2015

    BBinWI

    BBinWI Member

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    Frank,
    I appreciate your articles. I often see your offer to send a free book. Are there strings attached to this? I'd think sending free books to all who ask would get costly. But, if no strings, I'd love to read it.
     
    #13
  14. tabletop123, Dec 9, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    With Liman' s luck, & my toss...... We' d set the world on fire. Lol
     
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  15. tabletop123, Dec 9, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    I won't address the "other" stuff that people say about Frank. However, I will say this: He delivers (free of charge) as he promises. No shipping/handling, none of that!

    Some say that he only appears when he has something to sell. Its known that Frank has retired from GTC, so we KNOW he's not peddling Classes. As far as Frank ONLY showing up when he has a book to peddle........ Man' s gotta eat, doesn't he? Nothing wrong with earning a honest living.

    For those that think his literature is pure bullshit. ........ Don't buy it! As far as the speculation that Frank, & others "fleeced" people over at GTC: I fleeced people dam near ALL of my younger years. Doesn't make me a bad person. Absolutely no excuse for my behavior, although I believe there were mitigating circumstances.

    People move on to other, more productive things iN life! Still don't believe that Bullshit about the Captain, but Frank' s alright with me.
     
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  16. FrankScoblete, Dec 9, 2015

    FrankScoblete

    FrankScoblete Member

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    No strings. I've given away thousands of books and I absorb all the costs; I buy the books (I only get 30 free copies) and I mail them out. You will note that I rarely push buying them on these boards, although some posters have accused me of that. (Of course, I would love people to buy my books and they are best sellers so no complaints there.)

    I guess you can say I am doing what I wish people did for me when I was poor and living in a cold-water flat in Brooklyn in my younger years. Although I am not saying that people who want a free book are poor ---- don't get me wrong.

    I have also helped 10 good writers get book contracts, one of the hardest things to do if any of you know what it's like in the book world --- basically rejection and you need one-hell of a hard skin.

    I do not allow people to treat me to dinners or any other meals. The few individuals who get on my case on message boards don't know me --- or maybe some have met me and just don't like me. (I find that so hard to believe.)

    I have been charmed in my life. I've had good luck in the things that count --- wife, children. grandchildren, in-laws, my careers and my casino gambling is exactly what many players wish theirs was. Yes, I was seriously betrayed and hurt by my partner after 10 years but I learned a valuable lesson about loyalty and criminality there.

    So, no strings. Order the book but make sure you give me your address. I don't send out mailing or emails. I delete the addresses once I send the books out.
     
    #16
  17. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 11, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Although I have contributed to Frank's e-rag I have, to my knowledge, never met the man nor do I have any relationship, neither business nor personal, with him. I enjoy reading what he writes, and while, like tabletop123, I will not defend what he says to the death I will say you can do a whole lot worse than to take his advice. In particular I feel Chapter 10 of his book Forever Craps, which deals with personal safety, should be required reading for anyone venturing into a gambling venue. I have little doubt that some of the things that happen in Vegas stay there because someone paid the storage fee.
     
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  18. tabletop123, Dec 11, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    There you go Midnight, making false assumptions. I said that Frank was alright with me, & I stand by that statement.
     
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  19. The Midnight Skulker, Dec 11, 2015

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I was making no assumption, merely taking the same attitude of ignoring "the other stuff". Obviously I should not have mentioned your handle.
     
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  20. Craps Poopshoot, Dec 11, 2015

    Craps Poopshoot

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    sic in referring to Frank.

    In general, for the newbie, Franks books greatly help them navigate the casino and understand the games. I have no problems to recommend Franks books to such gamblers, who may be gambling for the first time.

    When it comes to Craps, Franks basic betting advice and money management is sound, however when it comes to Dice Control, The 5-count and The Captain ... In my opinion, Franks slips in to fantasy land where HOT SHOOTERS are those who make it past the 5-count and Dice Control is real. LOL :D only if that was true in the real world...I be living permanently a Las Vegas hotel suite.
     
    #20
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