Winning Craps Strategy

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Gary mead, Aug 28, 2017.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Sep 20, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Yeah,

    It really doesn't do you any good to correct them - makes it look like you think you are the expert at the game, yet stupid enough to volunteer them your money when they don't take it off when they should.
     
    #81
  2. lone irish digit, Sep 20, 2017

    lone irish digit

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    I always point out any overpayments the dealers make because of the eye in the sky will catch it and it could cost them their job. It is one of my most successful craps AP moves (along with the skunkhat) and usually results in a nice tip from the dealers when I color up.
     
    #82
  3. superrick, Sep 20, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Now, I can't pass this one up, is that what happened to you? When you moved you small bets around they started to give you a hard time?
     
    #83
  4. von duck, Sep 20, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    If they ever threatened to 86 ME for $78 six and eight bets, my very next bet would be, " $73, six and eight please". :D :cool:.
     
    #84
  5. Mssthis1, Sep 20, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    That guy did end up getting 86'd but I don't know the exact reason why. He had more issues than odd amount bets. Like cussing, breaking chips and arguing with the pit and hosts because he didn't think they were rating him well enough.

    I wonder why he wasn't being rated well:rolleyes:
     
    #85
    random_roller likes this.
  6. von duck, Sep 20, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    What's wrong with a guy, showin a little "spirt"? There's no justice I tell ya.:cool:
     
    #86
  7. The Midnight Skulker, Sep 20, 2017

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I am not about to spend a bunch of time grinding numbers on a thread 3-4 weeks old, so I'll accept $15/win above L1. Hence we seem to have the following conditions:
    • A win at L1 gets you $7.50 on average, one @ $9 for every three @ $7.
    • Therefore, 80% of the series you win will get you $7.50, while the remaining 20% will get you $15. Using this 4:1 ratio I get $9 as the average win/series.
    • A total bust, 4 consecutive sevens at the wrong time, costs you $6206.
    A couple side notes here:
    • We are interested only in decisions, not rolls. A decision occurs when Dugan shows while your bets are working, or one of your bets wins. All rolls that do not result in a decision are irrelevant.
    • Chip Magnet has not said anything about when he sets his action.
    6206 / 9 = 689.555..., the number of series you must win to offset a disaster.

    So, what are the chances of rolling four consecutive decision-producing sevens? Normally we think of Dugan as having a 6/36 chance of rolling, but in this problem six of those 36 chances are irrelevant horn numbers. Hence a decision-producing seven has a 6/30 chance, or 1/5 chance of rolling. (1/5)^4 = 1/625. Alas, you are expected to lose one series in 625, which is less than the 689+ that you need to win just to break even. I personally must therefore reject this system as a viable long-term strategy.
    John took a lot of flak on the old Usenet newsgroup, primarily for his innumerate attempts to justify his plays mathematically. IIRC reactions here have been mixed. I have not read any of his books nor seen any of his videos, but I have read of them on both media, and based on those observations I conclude that a beginner and even an intermediate player could do a whole lot worse than following this advice.
     
    #87