Winning Craps Strategy

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Gary mead, Aug 28, 2017.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Aug 29, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    ??

    24/36 x 1/6 = 0.111111 = 11.1%

    0.1111111^4 = 0.0001524 = 0.01524%

    where I did not even refer to the 2nd calculation above, stating only it isn't likely to happen but still could.
     
    #41
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  2. DeMango, Aug 29, 2017

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    I did 2/3 x 1/6 x 1/4 so yes I think you are right with the second figure. Can you translate that to "X to 1"?
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Aug 29, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    627 times in 5 million
     
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  4. DeMango, Aug 29, 2017

    DeMango

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    So divide both sides by 627? 7974 to 1?
     
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  5. DeMango, Aug 29, 2017

    DeMango

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    I, as a di, would take those odds, but there are better ways to go.
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, Aug 29, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    yep. Sorry, should have extended it out to that, about once in 8000 times
     
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  7. von duck, Aug 29, 2017

    von duck

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    That's not true, at the point you are at level 4 and down $1,168, if play and lose you would be down $6,206, so if you win, you add that plus the bet won, to your bankroll. TD, or accomplice.
     
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  8. Mssthis1, Aug 29, 2017

    Mssthis1

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    The odds of tossing a seven in a random game is one in 6. To figure out how often a seven will fall four times in the right sequence to knock you out in this progression is 6x6x6x6 or once every 1296 rolls of the dice.

    Like any long shot number like that you may go 20000 rolls and not see it once and then see it happen 3 times in 1000 rolls.
    I saw it happen tonight on the bubble machine. and I was only there an hour and a half.


    Edited. When I wrote this I forgot that a horn number gives you a free shot at rolling another 7. It'll happen 4.998 to the 4th power or once every 625 or so rolls.
     
    #48
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2017
  9. DeMango, Aug 29, 2017

    DeMango

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    Whoops!
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Aug 30, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    While this is true, it does not answer the question posed.

    By definition, a PSO is a two roll event given by 24/36 x 1/6.

    Odds of four in a row is given by taking this product to the fourth power.

    Interestingly, the most likely scenario to occur during two successive rolls on the craps table is given by 1/6 x 1/6 = 0.0278. Back to back sevens.
     
    #50
  11. Chip Magnet, Aug 30, 2017

    Chip Magnet

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    No.

    Say his starting bankroll is $10,000.

    After losing three times in a row, the bettor will be down $1,168, and his bankroll is now $8,832.

    At Level 4 he bets $5,038 across. He now has $3,794 on the rail and $5,038 on the felt. His total bankroll is still $8,832.

    If he wins his $845 bet on the 9, the $5,038 across comes down and goes back on the rail. He now has $8,832 on the rail. He collects $1,183 on his win, which is added to his bankroll.

    Adding $1,183 to his $8,832 bankroll, his new bankroll is now $10,015.

    This is a Martingale. At any level above Level 1, a win will only add $15 to his bankroll.
     
    #51
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  12. KokomoJoe4, Aug 30, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Magnet,

    There are some but not many players with a 10k bankroll. It's a proportional gamble whether you are playing with 100 or 10000.

    The Martingale comes down to risk proportionately large amounts of money to put yourself into a position of small winner, if you are lucky. Obviously, its downfall is the table limit. If there were no limit, it could not fail. Knowing this, the house sets maximum bets.

    I would much rather play craps from the opposite perspective, starting small and betting large ONLY when playing with chips that have not been long in my possession.

    A reverse Martingale, if you will, with a much nicer successful end result. Instead of recapturing all you have lost to get back to even, it can turn peanuts into a nice chunk of change. Give it a try.
     
    #52
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  13. superrick, Aug 30, 2017

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Yeah, it's been around for years and for years it has taught players how to lose big time!
     
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  14. Mssthis1, Aug 30, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    A PSO isn't a 2 roll event. There could be 18 horn numbers in between and it's still a PSO for this system. The only number that matters is the seven and the odds for that are exactly the same as the odds of 4 sevens in a row. It's horn numbers and non working box numbers on come out rolls that kill this system in real play compared to how it looks on paper. It would probably have a better chance of working if you were WOCO.
     
    #54
  15. Mssthis1, Aug 30, 2017

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    If you want to try this do it on a bubble machine at a lower level that is within the table limits of the machine.Highest limit I have seen is $500 on any given number to date.

    The bubble gives you the following extra advantages.
    1)More rolls per hour compared to a full live game. You can bet less and have the same expected win/loss rate.

    2) You can buy the 4/5/9/10 even at the lower $5 or less levels. On the larger 5/9 bets this makes a big difference.

    3) The machine doesn't care what you bet so no grouchy dealers or dealers who will pay you wrong on purpose on the odd ball amount bets. The first time you go to level 4 for 1 hit and then back down to $32.00 across every dealer in the casino is going to know your name and they'll all have a vendetta.
     
    #55
  16. von duck, Aug 30, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    You can look at it that way, but I think you miss a very important point in doing so. With the martingale or any other regression, with a win you don't just gain $s, there is the very important factor,of "position". Your gain should be thought of, as the difference between, a winner and a loser. In this case, a very large difference.:cool:.
     
    #56
  17. DeMango, Aug 30, 2017

    DeMango

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    Interesting observation. Why?
     
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  18. von duck, Aug 30, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    When one is playing any system, the house is playing, the reverse of that system. Nice little dance, around who's money you would be raising with.:D
     
    #58
  19. superrick, Aug 30, 2017

    superrick

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    Good post about what happens on real tables.
     
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  20. von duck, Aug 30, 2017

    von duck

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    Yes, bet a small fortune, and win.
     
    #60