Why Max Odds Bets?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Jan 23, 2014.

  1. basicstrategy777, Feb 15, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    I was talking about you. Let me know if I was wrong in what I said.

    777
     
    #41
  2. superrick, Feb 15, 2014

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Well that's pretty damn funny, I never use any aliases I always post as superrick on any board that I post on, I also help run : http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php

    That is a non BS board about craps, your good buddy Linaway hangs out there. I was told that I couldn't post on Heavy's board, because I'm always writing about the Madprofessor and all the fiction that he writes, and Heavy didn't want to lose his star poster on his board, I removed myself years ago from the DiceInstitute, because of all the fiction that was being written and all the lies that The Madprofessor would come out with if anybody questioned what he was writing, that is one of the signs of a Pathological Liar, just in case if you don't know how to spot one I think you and everybody else should read this: http://www.wikihow.com/Spot-a-Pathological-Liar!

    Every time I've proving that the Madprofessor is a fantastic fiction writer, he has called me and anybody else every name in the book and made up so many lies it's not funny. In over thirty years that the Madprofessor has been writing on the different craps boards no one has every met him that is a DI, nor has anybody every played craps with him, I play craps here in Vegas all the time and have been on the tables with some of the best shooters in this country.
    There is no reason why anybody should be writing fiction about the game craps, all these fantastic stories about the super great rolls, and all the money that they say they win does nothing but hurt all of the craps players. Making up a story of winning a cool half-million dollars off a $2000 buy-in, makes the casinos cringe. When they read stories like that they do everything possible to stop anybody that sets the dice.

    Some of these schools that teach becoming a DI, believes that they need these great fiction writers to sell their schools, I think it's pretty sad that they allow all the fiction that is written about the DI's and what they can do with the dice in their hands!
    The next time you see someone that is setting the dice get hassled you can thank the great fiction writers like the Madprofessor! The casinos believe all of the BS that has been written as to what a dice setter can do, and have done everything in their powers to put a stop to anybody that sets the dice. It's about time that everybody calls these fiction writers out, and put a stop to all the damage they do with their great fiction!

    While we're on the subject of somebody getting banned from a board , didn't you have a run in with Heavy back around 2002 0r 2003? Isn't it true that he asked you to seek out a different venue to post on?

    So let's get this straight, I never post under any aliases, if I'm going to write a post I'm going to put my handle it! I'm proud of what I write, and try to tell it like it is! I believe that no one on any of these boards should be writing fiction about what they do in a casino. I'm not selling any classes, and I make my money from the shooting craps.
    If you have a different opinion on anything I write please post it, so everybody can learn from it. But don't post something that's not true about me. You're barking up the wrong tree, by saying I don't know what I'm talking about, or by saying that I'm somebody else!

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  3. basicstrategy777, Feb 16, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    You have made your point. If what I wrote about you RE: aliases and boards was in error I apoligize. If I don't agree with what you say I will speak my piece as I feel appropriate. You are correct about me and Heavy over 10 years ago. Although I don't agree with his dice control thing I do think he is an experienced player with much to offer about the game.

    777
     
    #43
  4. The Comeback Kid, Feb 16, 2014

    The Comeback Kid

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    This is a “big tent” forum and all points of view are welcome.
    I can’t tell you how much time, money, and energy I’ve lost
    following lockstep with conventional wisdom.

    Prudent is he who appreciates an irreverent perspective, while
    staying on solid ground. The bold individual is one who can take
    what he’s heard; then learned thru trial & error, and carve out
    his own approach to the game.

    That fellow invariable comes away a success.

    So you’re both right, and we're all better for it, so everybody wins.

    Kumbaya

    Roll well my friends
     
    #44
  5. superrick, Feb 16, 2014

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    I read plenty of your stuff that you have written over the years, some of it, I think is very good, but I don't agree on everything that you write. If we didn't question what others write on the game craps we would all be doing one thing at the tables, and we know that isn't the case. While I will never go into great detail about the math of the game and throw out formulas to dazzle my reading audience, it doesn't meen that I do not know anything about the math of the game and how to interpret it.

    I've read every book I could get my hands on that has anything to do with craps, casino management, and yes the math of the game!
    Your so-called free odds bet was developed as a marketing ploy, to get players to bet the pass line bet! Over the years it's done its job very well, as I said before just because bet has a low house advantage doesn't mean you're going to win by continually betting that bet!
    Again common sense, should come into play, but of course it doesn't. You need the point that was established to be made, for that low house advantage to do you any good!

    The sad truth of the matter is, most times that it will never happen! Pass line bettors taking the so-called free odds go down in flames just like everybody else on the craps table. Locking yourself into a bet that can only be decided two ways leaves a lot to be desired. Casinos know that most players will never take the full odds they can take, and they don't have the bankroll to survive the game. The casinos also know that players do not think about the point that was established. Most players would never place the 4 or the 10, but when those points are established on the come out roll, they think nothing about putting their chips behind the line for those so-called free odds.

    Have a question for you, do you think for one minute that just because you took the so-called free odds for the 10 or 4 that you stand a better chance of the shooter making that point?


    Most true math guys, won't even bet on the 5 or the 9, let alone the 4 or the 10. Here's where the big misconception comes to play. What your advocating is betting on any box number that has been established as the point, just because you can bet the so-called free odds. Think about what I just wrote, if most true math guys would never bet the 5, 9, 4, or 10 what just changed when the shooter established one of those points?

    Please show us, how taken those so-called free odds changes the odds of making the 4's or the 10's if you can!

    Also let cleared air, there are some pathological liars that love writing fiction about the game of craps. While some players think what these guys are writing is the truth, I'm the guy that will always prove that they are writing nothing but fiction. So yes, there are some boards that do not like guys like me, because I make it harder for them to sell their bullshit!
    I also do not call anybody names to prove a point, I call the Madprofessor, the world's greatest fiction writer on the game of craps, which he is!
    Everybody that knows me calls me a DI, I play craps all the time and will tell anybody that I cannot win every time I go to the tables. I need good money management to stay ahead of the game. The reality of craps is that you will see plenty of great rolls coming from the so-called random roller's. All you have to do is look at who holds the record for the longest roll, that's right a so-called random roller!

    In closing, some posters come to these boards just argue, I don't! I have better things to do than to argue with anybody. If you don't like what I write my advice is self-censorship, if you disagree please tell me why and everybody else, so maybe we can all learn from your expertise!




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    #45
  6. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2014

    TDVegas

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    Then what is your opinion on taking odds if you are betting the don't pass?
     
    #46
  7. KokomoJoe4, Feb 16, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

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    TD,

    He has failed to respond to either of our questions regarding Laying odds on the Don't, as he has not responded to my observation of the effectiveness of place bets relative to his obseervation of four rolls, followed by seven -out.

    Next I will respond to the SHOUTED statement concerning odds of making the four or ten. ( or any other established point).

    I question your familiarity w/ mathematics if you fail to see the effect of odds. Either number will show half as many times as the seven. Your contract bet, paid evenly, is the only thing dragging me down from fair payment for the making of my point number. It is understood that the seven will show, on average, twice as often as the four or ten. When these numbers hit, I get 2:1 on my odds, hopefully big odds.

    The dragging down of a completely fair payment by my contract bet I do not like but accept for the following reason: I enjoy the 2:1 advantage I get on this bet on the Come out, and I look to parlay natural winners as often as they hit. I want to use this opportunity of a statistical advantage to my best possible financial gain since I am a Right way player by choice. In order to give myself what I feel is the best shot at winning, I want to take advantage of large come out winners, by parlaying winning naturals, and odds, in order to receive "fair" payment for my winning waers.
     
    #47
  8. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2014

    TDVegas

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    I get the whole idea that rolling a 4-10 is difficult and why compound that awful point with another bet. The liklihood is that a 7 will be rolled 2-1 times. The fact that odds pays 2-1 on these bets is where the math comes into play. I've played the dont pass enough times to know the 4-10 DO get hit. Again, I wouldn't do anything more than 1x or 2x odds simply because I know this is a negative expectation game. You WILL lose over the long haul of playing. it's for enjoyment only. I know playing this game a lot of times means I WILL lose. Anyone telling me differently is selling snake oil IMO.

    I like playing the don't pass simply because if I can get pass the initial come out roll, I have the edge. Throwing a couple more dollars on odds is a choice if you want to make it. I just wouldn't go crazy.
     
    #48
  9. basicstrategy777, Feb 16, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    S..........My thinking is different than yours.

    To me, the question is not is the 4/10 hard to make.......the question is are you being paid in direct proportion to the risk you are taking. When you take or lay odds odds, you are making a bet with a fair payout, with neither the casino or you having an advantage.

    The reason the odds bet is called free odds is because it is free. In short....you are free to make the bet or free to take down the bet AND you are getting an exactly fair payout.

    To have a bet in a casino, where it does not have an advantage on the payout and can be made or removed at will sounds about as good as it gets.

    Whether you should make the odds bet or not cannot hinge on if it is a fair bet ( because it is ).....it must hinge on if you can 'afford' to
    make it.

    It must be realized, fair bets can be lost, and the house edge has nothing to do with you losing. Sometimes it is just not your day.

    When you buy in for 200 and your opponent has 250,000 all stacked up facing you, who do you think will win that battle. You have to be lucky AND smart when you gamble.

    777
     
    #49
  10. Southern-Comfort, Feb 16, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    If you bet on a 4 or 10 coming up on a single roll, yeah that's pretty tough, and you should be hopping it instead of placing it if just one roll is what you want to risk it for.
    However, (or if I were SnakeEyes HOWEVER) if you are betting on a 4 and/or 10 at a turn at the dice, its all relative to how long the roll will be. On a turn, its not a bad bet, I actually love when the point is a 4 or 10.
     
    #50
  11. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2014

    TDVegas

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    Mathematically from a house edge point of view, 4-10 is the worst bet (compared to 5-6-8-9) and over the long haul you are going to lose more playing those two numbers.
     
    #51
  12. basicstrategy777, Feb 16, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    And if the HA is less ?

    777
     
    #52
  13. Southern-Comfort, Feb 16, 2014

    Southern-Comfort

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    The difference in the house advantage is really pretty inconsequential in a normal amount of play. Variance is going to distort it one way or the other, it is highly unlikely to turn out in an hour's play exactly as on paper.
    Chances for rolling it are a gamble, but cementing your short term decisuions entirely on long term math is just going to end up in heart break.
     
    #53
  14. superrick, Feb 16, 2014

    superrick

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    How in the world do you expect to get the answer to your question, if nobody knows who you are directing the question too!
     
    #54
  15. superrick, Feb 16, 2014

    superrick

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    #55
  16. TDVegas, Feb 16, 2014

    TDVegas

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    Well, I figured since you're harping on the odds bet, you would have figured out it was directed at you. Guess not.
     
    #56
  17. superrick, Feb 18, 2014

    superrick

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    Well I don't take anything for granted, your post could very easily been directed at 777.
    There are many different opinions on taking the so-called free odds on a don't bet. I'm not one that you would describe as a don't player. Most of my money is won on the right side of the table, although there are a few times that I will play the don't if there are no other players on the table. When that happens I get some very strange looks from any dealer that knows me.



    So here's my deal, I would never take the so called free odds on a don't bet, I would just take the chip, that you are using for your odds and add them to the flat bet. You already have the best bet you can have once you get pass the come out roll, why water it down with the so called free odds.

    As my good friend Linaway would says, that's like working overtime for half wages. Although most of the books you were read will tell you that the so-called free odds bet is a fantastic bet when you bet the don't, I have problems that, and here's why.


    I will use the 4's and 10's as an example, you need bet $20 your free odds bet to win $10! So you would have $25 bet to win $15

    You could use only $15 to win $15 on the don't pass line, and if you looked at the math of the game you would soon realize that your $15 don't pass bet is actually a better bet than a five dollar don't pass bet and $20 of so-called free odds.


    If we were using the same bet on the 4 or the 10 as a example for a don't bet, you can see that with your even money bet you are actually come out better, because if you were laying the 4 or 10 you would have to lay $20 to win $10. Your $20 don't bet will only pay you $10 remember the 2 to 1 on the don't side if you are laying against 4 or the 10, Bet $20 to win $10. But because the don't bet is paid even money you are now paid $20 on your $20 don't bet, and that is double what it should be! Are you following me on this one?


    So-called free odds bet is the sleight-of-hand trick that the casinos used to their advantage! It's nothing more than smoke and mirrors! To look at another way all the books say that a pass line bet with the so-called free odds is the best bet on the table, then they turn right around and say the same thing about a don't bet with the so-called free odds on it! How can you have two bets that are the best bets on the table?


    The casinos lock you when to your pass line bet when your betting the right side, because they know once the point is established you now have the worst bet. When you are betting the don't, once a point is established you can remove your bet, the casinos know that your don't bet is now in your favor. They would rejoice in seeing you remove your don't bet.


    Here's where the smoke and mirrors come in play, the so-called free odds bet it's not marked anywhere on the layout, they want you to believe that this bet is so good that they're trying to hide it from you! Yet, when you do not take the so-called free odds, you will have all the dealers reminding you to take that bet! Yes, yes I know the dealers and the casino wants you to win, that's why the casinos are in business, they want winners, they never want to see a loser!


    One more way of looking at taking your so-called free odds bet is once you lose a don't bet with the so-called free odds, you now have to have two wins to get your money back. Whereas with just a don't bet at a higher unit level, you only need one win to get your money back! I'm not going to break it down into percentages or use decimal points to dazzle you with what should be common sense math! There is a very simple reason for that, I've never seen the casino pay you in a quarter or half percent. There's no such thing as I almost hit that bet, and on that bet you should pay me a quarter of it!
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    Last edited: Feb 18, 2014
  18. KokomoJoe4, Feb 18, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

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    So here's my deal, I would never take the so called free odds on a don't bet, I would just take the chip, that you are using for your odds and add them to the flat bet. You already have the best bet you can have once you get pass the come out roll, why water it down with the so called free odds.

    Good luck with this endeavor Super. Let me know when you are able to accomplish this - you and I will be more successful than any of the strategists.

    I will advise the dealer as follows - "No, that hundred times my flat wager is NOT odds to be laid - add it to my flat Don't now that the point is established." Get me a coffee w/ bourban while your at it.....
     
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  19. The Comeback Kid, Feb 21, 2014

    The Comeback Kid

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    So here's my deal, I would never take the so called free odds on a don't bet, I would just take the chip, that you are using for your odds and add them to the flat bet. You already have the best bet you can have once you get pass the come out roll, why water it down with the so called free odds.

    I tried this yesterday at Borgata. Almost got away with it.
    If the table's boring, I recommend it.

    We all had a big hardy laugh... (Har Har Har)



     
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