Why lay odds on Don't Come?

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by nighthawk1, Jan 18, 2011.

  1. nighthawk1, Jan 18, 2011

    nighthawk1

    nighthawk1 Member

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    Hi all. I have a question on the odds bet for Don't Come. Basically, why would you ever want to make this bet? If the odds payoff is always less than 1-to-1, why not skip the odds and just add that money to the basic Don't Come bet where you'll get a 1-to-1 payoff?
     
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  2. willjohn562, Jan 18, 2011

    willjohn562

    willjohn562 Member

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    Because you may not want to risk it all on the come out. You will lose on a 7 or 11.
     
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  3. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 19, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Odds bets on either side, front or back, increase variance without increasing expected loss. Variance is what gives players a chance to win in a game in which they are expected to lose. Unfortunately, variance is a two-way street; it can also lead to higher than expected losses, so whether or not to take/lay odds is an individual decision based on balancing playing time against profit potential.
    I hope you're not suggesting adding what you would have bet for odds to your now-established Don't bet, because casinos do not allow you to do that! (It sure would be nice if they did, though!) Hence, I have to assume you mean increasing your Don't bet before the comeout by the amount you have allocated for odds.

    Once a Don't bet gets behind a number it is expected to win more times than it loses, so to avoid giving the player an advantage on the odds bet the house pays it at the reverse of the true odds of it winning, just as it does on front-side odds (which lose more often than they win, but get paid at better than even money). You must also consider that Don't bets go behind a number only 2/3 of the time on average; when the bet is resolved on the comeout you're an 8:3 underdog.
     
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  4. basicstrategy777, Jan 19, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    how about 2 to 1.

    777
     
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  5. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 20, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    One of the disadvantages of this forum vis-a-vis rec.gambling.craps is that posts are not threaded. Consequently, I can only assume 777's comment, "how about 2 to 1," refers to my statement that a don't bet is an 8:3 underdog if resolved on the comeout. The problem, of course, is whether or not to consider a push on the bar number as a resolution. Traditionally it is not, and as a result the house advantage on a don't bet is almost always given as 1.40%. If the bet is considered resolved as a push when the bar number is thrown on the comeout then the house advantage would be 1.36%, but that assumes a bettor makes the bet with the intent to pick it up if the bar number is thrown rather than leave it and wait for it to win or lose. Has anybody ever picked up a pushed don't bet, or seen someone do it?
     
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  6. basicstrategy777, Jan 20, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    The rule is, a shooter can pick up his Don't Pass bet on the come out roll, or at any time for that matter.

    777
     
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  7. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 20, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    True, and I have seen many wrong-siders (foolishly IMHO) pick up their don't bet (actually, call "no action") when it gets a point of 6 or 8, but I have yet to see a player pick up his don't bet after a comeout roll of the bar number. Hence, I stand by my original statement that a don't bet resolved on the comeout is an 8:3 underdog, though I will concede your point that it is merely a 2:1 underdog to win if a push on the comeout is (atypically) considered a resolution.
     
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  8. basicstrategy777, Jan 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    Somes reasons why........"why would anyone want to make this bet." i.e. laying odds on the Don't Come bet.


    1. You will win this bet more often than you will lose it.

    2. It is the only fair bet in the casino i.e. the casino does not have an edge on an odds bet.

    3. It lowers the house advantage.

    4. You are past the most dangerous time for a Don't player ( come out phase) and are now in an advantagious position (point phase).

    5. If compare making a 15 dollar flat bet to a 5 dollar flat bet and lay 10 dollars odds ( betting the same amount of money)
    you win more and lose less if you lay odds.


    The reason people don't lay odds is because they are playing with a short bankroll....they are playing scared . If you have the money you should lay odds, IMHO. By the way, if you lay odds in increments of 6 dollars you will always lay a correct amount of money no matter the point.


    777
     
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  9. goatcabin, Jan 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    I have heard this argument many times. Since you already have a better-than-50% chance to win and get even money, why make an additional bet with the same win probability but get less-than-even money? Here's why:

    You make a $10 don't pass bet and it goes to a point of 4. Now, you have a 66.7% chance to win $10. So, should you lay $20 to win $10, or save that $20 to make a couple of don't come bets? If you lay the $20, your expectation is zero, i.e. you have a a 66.7% chance to win $10 opposed to a 33.3% chance to lose the $20, so they balance out to zero. If, OTOH, you make two $10 don't come bets, the expectation is to lose $.28.

    The point is, any money put on the flat part of the line bets carries an expected loss; any money bet on the odds does not.

    To reduce expected loss and increase variance, minimize your flat bets and maximize your odds, understanding that increased variance, while bettering your chance to come out ahead, also increases losses when the dice go the other way.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, Ca
     
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  10. goatcabin, Jan 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    In my view, this is misleading. All the craps books say this, because they combine the odds bet with the flat bet. However, they are really separate bets, with different payouts. The expected loss, a money amount or percentage, is totally a function of the flat bet. Taking or laying odds does not change this at all. This is key to understanding odds bets.

    $10 pass, ev = -$0.141
    $10 odds, ev = $0.00
    $20 odds, ev = $0.00
    $50 odds, ev = $0.00

    Now, the books will tell you that the HA is -1.414% for no odds, -0.848% for single odds, -0.606% for double odds, etc. etc., implying that you expect to lose LESS by taking odds. However, you expected to lose EXACTLY the same amount, regardless of odds. The expected loss is a function ONLY of the flat bet.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
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  11. basicstrategy777, Jan 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    How do you reconcile what you are saying with my item # 5.

    Are you saying my item # 5 is wrong ?......or is it a true statement.


    777
     
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  12. goatcabin, Jan 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Try quoting a message to which you're responding, 777. It makes it a lot clearer.

    Your #5:
    5. If compare making a 15 dollar flat bet to a 5 dollar flat bet and lay 10 dollars odds ( betting the same amount of money)
    you win more and lose less if you lay odds.

    That statement is not exactly correct. By laying odds, you will lose the same amount when the shooter makes his point, but less on comeout losses, but you will win less when you win. What is correct is that your expected loss is less with $5 flat, $10 odds than with $15 flat, for exactly the same reason I discussed re your #3 -- the expected loss attaches ONLY to the flat bet.

    Let's compare a $15 DP, no odds, to a $5 DP, laying $12 odds, because, as you pointed out, with multiples of $6 you always get a correct payout, regardless of the point. Also, keep in mind that you only lay odds 2/3 of the time, so your average amount on the table is less than $15.

    For 60 bets:
    flat $15: ev: -$12.62, SD $116
    $5, lay $12: ev: -$4.21, SD $98

    In this case, the average bet is $13.23 with odds, so even your variance is less. This means that you will win less and lose less at the extremes. The higher variance of the $15 flat will mean you win more if you come out more than .47 SD better than expectation. Anywhere "below" that, and you are better off with the $5+$12.

    As a general rule, I prefer to minimize my flat bets and take (or lay) as much in odds as I'm comfortable with.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
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  13. nighthawk1, Jan 22, 2011

    nighthawk1

    nighthawk1 Member

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    Great comments, and it has given me much to think about.

    What I was suggesting in my original post is that since you will always have an advantage anyway after you get past the Don't Come come-out roll, why not just flat bet it at, say, $50, or whatever figure you are comfortable with. Just start out with that amount on a flat bet, skip the odds bet, and get 1-to-1 payoff everytime you win. I do realize that if I flat bet the minimum and wait till I can make an odds bet, I will "save" myself money should I get whacked with the 7/11 on the come-out. Anyway, good comments and I appreciate them.
     
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  14. goatcabin, Jan 22, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    The trouble with betting $50 flat is that you now have an expected loss of $.70 for every bet. It's because every flat bet is subject to the severe comeout disadvantage on the don't side. The odds bets never face that.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #14
  15. basicstrategy777, Jan 24, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    All the craps books and their authors say say one thing and you say another.....

    What does ".........not exactly correct mean." ? It is or it isn't.


    By the way, who made you hall monitor.


    If you can't figure out my comments are directed at you, especually when they appear right under your post,don't answer.


    777
     
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  16. goatcabin, Jan 24, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    The books/authors are not wrong; if you take the ev and divide by the combined bet handle, flat bet plus odds, you get the figures they quote. I just think it's misleading, implying that you lose less that way, which is not the case. Looking at them as separate bets, with separate ev's, gives a clearer picture of what's really going on, in my view.

    Once again, I will quote you, so everyone can see to what you're referring:
    "5. If compare making a 15 dollar flat bet to a 5 dollar flat bet and lay 10 dollars odds ( betting the same amount of money)
    you win more and lose less if you lay odds."

    My response was:
    "That statement is not exactly correct. By laying odds, you will lose the same amount when the shooter makes his point, but less on comeout losses, but you will win less when you win. What is correct is that your expected loss is less with $5 flat, $10 odds than with $15 flat, for exactly the same reason I discussed re your #3””the expected loss attaches ONLY to the flat bet."

    It seems quite clear to me.


    It's not just a matter of to whom your comments are directed; it's the context. It's just easier to follow the dialog when you quote. Most people on this site do that; there's a reason. Perhaps there's a reason you don't.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
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  17. dustedone, Feb 2, 2011

    dustedone

    dustedone Member

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    DON'T PASS/ DON'T COMES wagers can be a hedge bets against the table depending on the established point or DON T COME point.

    What is the best part of DP/DC wagers is that you can elect not to play them after that point has been established; With a PASS LINE/ COME wager a player is committed to this booked bet once the dice are rolled.

    Another thing most people don t know is that: DP/DC wager can be reduced to the minimum table wager or be removed at anytime, but it CAN NOT be added to odds set aside. PL/C wager can be increased to the maximum table wager at any time, but can never be decreased with the odds set aside.

    ie: $40 DON"T PASS or DON"T COME bet and a FIVE is rolled establishing the FIVE as a DP point or DC point(time to make the decision to play the wager, there are no right or wrongs IMO)

    1) One can decrease the flat bet to the table minimum.

    2) One can "down" the bet removing it all together.

    3) One can call "no action" and just leaves the bet where it is at(not so with a DON T PASS wager, it must be played, removed, or decreased after a point has been established)

    * 1 and 2 can be done at anytime.

    Most casinos will let the player play the PASS LINE once you down the DON T PASS line wager. And most players will say that taking down a DONT wager gives the house back their advantage. How? If the wager is not on the table how can the house take it?


    But back to my first statement on the hedge of the table. With the table at just double odds, a $40 wager on a "no show" point of FIVE with double the odds of $120, a $30 PLACE bet on the SIX and EIGHT, a $10 PLACE bet on the NINE, FIELD and HORN HIGH YO, and $40 on the DON'T COME wager the table is hedged against the SEVEN and table table is set-up as a money generator.

    If any of the wagered PLACE bets are rolled in this combination, collect the payout and call "no action" on the DC bet and the $10 return wagers on the FIELD and the HORN HIGH ELEVEN.

    If the HORN bet is rolled collect all the payouts and return wagers of $10 of the FIELD and HORN HIGH YO, with a return wager of $40 on the DON'T COME.

    If a FOUR or TEN is rolled take full odds($160) on the established DC point and return on the FIELD, HORN HIGH YO, and DON'T COME wagers.

    If the seven is rolled collect ALL your payouts.

    If you have reached 3 established DONT points, in this case the FIVE, FOUR, and TEN, one might choose not to bet the DON'T COME wager and change to a HORN HIGH THREE.

    When one has reach the MAX odds on the DP/DC point(s) and the setup is still generating chips, one can LAY odds against one or all established DP/DC points. I would lean more to the FOUR or TEN in this instance.

    Playing the Darkside is to wager more to win less vs. playing with is to wager less to win more; hummmmm . . .So I can see where you might ask, "why take the risk?"
     
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  18. goatcabin, Feb 3, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    The house cannot take it, of course. But at this point in the life of the wager, the PLAYER has the advantage. That's what you're throwing away by reducing or removing the bet.

    There is a good reason that you cannot reduce/remove a pass/come bet after a point is established -- the house now has a substantial advantage, after the player had the advantage on the comeout roll. The exact opposite is true for DP/DC -- the house has a big advantage on the comeout, while the player has the advantage after a point is established. That is why the house will not let you increase a DP/DC after the point is set. So, by reducing or removing a DP/DC bet after a point is established, the player is throwing away the "good" half of the bet, having survived the "bad" half.

    Let's examine the difference between a straight DP bet and one where you call it "off" if the point is 6 or 8.

    The "perfect 1925" for DP
    lose to natural: 440 -1
    win craps bar 12: 165 +1
    win point 6/8: 300 +1
    lose point 6/8: 250 -1
    win point 5/9: 264 +1
    lose point 5/9: 176 -1
    win point 4/10: 220 +1
    lose point 4/10: 110 -1
    -----
    net for 1925 bets: -27 (the 55 times the 12 is rolled result in no net amount)

    If we remove the 300 wins and 250 losses on the 6/8, the overall net is -77. This MORE THAN DOUBLES the house advantage.

    Of course, every one of those "hedge" bets carries its own expected loss, 45+ cents apiece on the place 6/8, 40 cents on the place 9, 3-6 cents on the Field (depending whether triple or double 12), $1.22 on horn high yo and 56 cents on the DC. So, you add drastically to your expected loss, then you reduce variance by making bets that, to some extent, offset each other, which means you have to be more lucky to overcome the expected loss.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
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  19. The Midnight Skulker, Feb 3, 2011

    The Midnight Skulker

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    IMHO taking any of these actions with an established Don't bet is wrong, and not just because, as Alan has pointed out, the player is the favorite to win an even money bet. The main reason is that, should the player get cold feet, there is typically an alternative that guarantees a profit: place the point your don't bet is on! Let's take the example cited: $40 behind 5. Suppose that, after a few neutral rolls, the player fears that the shooter has gotten hot and will make the 5. Rather than decreasing or taking down the don't bet suppose the player hedges it off with a $35 place bet. Now if the 5 makes the player wins $49 on the place bet while losing the $40 don't for a net gain of $9, and if the 5 misses the player wins $40 on the don't while losing the $35 place bet for a net gain of $5.
     
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  20. goatcabin, Feb 3, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Without the hedge, the ev of the $40 DP behind 5 is $8. With the hedge, the ev is $6.66. The big difference is in the variance. For 60 of these, the ev is $480, SD $304 for the non-hedge, $396, SD just $15 with the hedge. The reduction in positive ev is, of course, due to the expected loss on the place bet. You give away part of your advantage in return for a guaranteed gain.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
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