When I should I step away after a hot shooter

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by bsayegh, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. bsayegh, Dec 6, 2017

    bsayegh

    bsayegh Member

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    My friends and I love to play craps, but when things are going well we start to bet on emotion rather than logic. I usually stick to the pass line + odds, various come line bets, and occasionally the Don't Pass, but when someone hits a few points I start making stupid bets.

    The worst thing is that after the shooter rolls a 7, I find that everyone assumes that:
    1. The next shooter will be just as hot
    2. If you just wait for the dice to get back to the hot shooter, he/she will again be hot.
    This almost always leads to losing most of what I just won. I even tell myself that it doesn't matter how hot a person was because they probably wont be again.

    At what point do you just step away? If a shooter is hot, then the next person 7s out immediately, do you color out? Do you wait for a few people? Do you just switch to the Don't Pass? I have no issue with the Don't Pass but always managed to get screwed by a 7 or 11 on the come out.
     
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  2. TDVegas, Dec 6, 2017

    TDVegas

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    Set win limits before you start and don't go under it when you hit it.

    There really is no way to know when to step away. It's usually a gut feeling. Sometimes a good decision...sometimes not.

    Limits are the only solution in my mind.
     
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  3. bsayegh, Dec 6, 2017

    bsayegh

    bsayegh Member

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    I guess I have never considered a Win Limit. I typically just try to make what I can and rarely count it (I do stick larger chips in my pocket so that I don't use them). I usually lose half my bankroll before someone gets hot so I'm already climbing out of a hole. Lets say I buy in for $200, what would be a logical limit?
     
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  4. von duck, Dec 6, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    :confused: :D :D :D
     
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  5. HornHiYo, Dec 6, 2017

    HornHiYo

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    Good post. Only you can answer that question and it sounds like you are on the right trail; noticing your behavior and others.
    My favorite time to leave is when I have more than doubled my buy in and I’m too tired to play.
    Next is stepping away when my table take shrinks down to equal my buy-in and I’m tired or hungry with a nice comp for dining (I try to never press with more than my table take)
    Next is stepping away from a choppy table neither winning or losing but tired or hungry.
    My least favorite is lost buy-in, tired and hungry.
    There’s a lot of members here willing to share good unbiased info and none are guaranteed best or to win. Everyone starts and stops for different reasons. You’re not wearing their shoes so do what you feel is best for you and your situation.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 6, 2017
  6. KokomoJoe4, Dec 6, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Of course we all see ourselves having the best answer to these "questions of optimal craps play", and I am no different.

    There will be plenty of losing hands and losing sessions. We all know this.

    The game is a game of streaks. Gambling funds have different values to different people. One thing we probably all have in common is that of looser play with money we have just won. By looser, I mean only that we find it easier to risk this new-found money.

    Never step away when in the process of winning. Keep wagering, as aggressively as you dare, until seeing a loser. This loser should be the specific point that you seek.

    Bet bigger and bigger with your winnings until you experience a loser. When the loser shows, leave.
     
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  7. James Hall, Dec 6, 2017

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    The first question a person needs to put to rest when deciding when or when not to play
    do the terms , "HOT TABLE" and "HOT SHOOTER" have any VALIDITY?
    If so how do you determine if either of those conditions exist?
     
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  8. bsayegh, Dec 6, 2017

    bsayegh

    bsayegh Member

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    I believe a shooter can be hot for a period of time. Sometimes a table can be hot (2 or 3 shooters in a row hitting multiple points before 7-out). I realize that it is just a standard variance that doesn't follow any rule other than probability, but there a times when you get to a table and 5 people in a row cant hit a point. At that time I would consider the table "cold". If a shooter shoots for 30 minutes and hits 5 points in the process, I would consider that "hot". I never go to a table expecting that, just hoping for it.

    If we were to draw a graph of a day or week of craps shooters, it would show that 7 generally hit a lot, then 8/6, then 9/5, then 10/4, with 2 and 12 being the least likely. But at any moment in time, be it 10 minutes or 2 hours, it is possible for the improbable to happen, and that is what a hot table it. Its just being lucky enough to be at a table at the right time.
     
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  9. mycoalsmith, Jan 6, 2018

    mycoalsmith

    mycoalsmith Member

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    I have found with myself that after betting on a hot shooter, that I tend to make stupid bets as well.

    I am usually a very conservative player. I usually do a 5 count to get on a shooter and start out with low bets and then start pressing once I've gained back my initial bets.

    I have found after a hot shooter and I'm up in my number of chips, I start betting early and start pressing early - simply because I'm up. This usually ends up in my extra chips I had disappearing and into the casino's stack of chips.

    I have also found after a really hot shooter, it's usually best to start playing the Don't Pass. Lady Luck has just shone on your table and chances are, she has left and gone somewhere else. I think there has only been ONE time my play that after a hot roll, the next shooter ended up being hot as well.

    If it's also nearing your leave time - your best strategy would be after a hot shooter, immediately coloring up and LEAVING the casino. (I should follow my own advice though - because it is hard to leave when you just saw a good roll!!!!)
     
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  10. TDVegas, Jan 6, 2018

    TDVegas

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    Discipline. It's the name of the game.
    No issue.
    Discipline. Again, IMO....a gambler should stick with the plan. Of course there are times when a "what the hell, why not" moment hits....but if you find this sending chips the other way---disband this practice.
    These are merely gambler fallacy thoughts...but if your instincts tell you this, ok.
    They bank on you staying. They want you staying. They do everything in their power to keep you there. Discipline. Never a bad idea to walk with winnings.

    We all will violate the rule. I did yesterday. Should have left after this roll. I was up. 5 come out winners in row. Hit the win mark. Good time to walk.

    image.jpeg
     
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    Last edited: Jan 6, 2018
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  11. basicstrategy777, Jan 6, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    You should not have win limits...you should have win goals.......you never want to limit your wins...........Once you have reached your win goal or come close to it, you must have a strategy on how to handle it.....it's in my book.

    You should have a floor beyond which you will not go, under any circumstances; this concrete floor is your loss limit.

    Your win goal must be realistic....to say I want to triple my money is not realistic......the lower your win goal the greater the chance you will achieve it.

    A basicstrategy is fine....but worthless unless you have the discipline to follow it.

    There are times when you will stray and listen to your nose......I will not criticize this as it is normal. ...however, it shouyld not torpedo and sink your ship.

    The more experience you gain the more "clever" you will be on when to walk and when not to walk.....plus other stuff.

    It's dificult to figure out what will happen but you might be one of those that can do it better than others.

    Many say you should leave the table after a hot shoot....I don't buy that and will stay for at least a few more hands.....sometimes a table, like a shooter, can be hot for hours, days, weeks.

    Everybody that gives you advice here will be right....even if it contradictory.

    Good luck.

    777
     
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  12. TDVegas, Jan 6, 2018

    TDVegas

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    I think the consensus on the meaning of win limit is that once you hit that point....not to go below it.

    It doesn't mean once you hit your $100 win limit (point)...to cash in and leave. It just means you've hit a point. Don't go lower. Of course you can continue to go higher.
     
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  13. von duck, Jan 6, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I agree with what you say, but would like to know more about "other stuff".:)
     
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  14. Druck

    Druck Member

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    And when you get on that hot streak, press big. I doesn't happen often. Easier to said than done.
     
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  15. basicstrategy777, Jan 6, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    As an experienced play ( which you are), I am confident you know what the 'other stuff' is.

    777
     
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