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Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by JimmyS1985, Feb 24, 2011.
Let me know when you learn to roll 7's and I will play with you anytime.
I read the original question and it morphed a bit during the discussions, but I spent too much time thinking about the options with a $100 bankroll.
We came up with a $200 bankroll for playing a $5 table when training new Craps players... and that was dusting off any nickels and dimes that we found in the Casino parking lot to add to the bankroll.
But. This poor guy is getting lots of great strategy for playing, but we need to get back to the $100 bankroll. I played at the riverboat just north of the Lewis & Clark Park in St. Louis and had my butt whipped playing smart. The table I remember was right at the entrance to the Casino Floor. These early days you had to show identification, get your Player's card good for buying in for up to $500, I do not recall if I had a full body search, but should have as this had to be an ten foot long table with 40 people ready to find a spot to put some chips into a rack. Had I been female, I would be yelling RAPE. And... I kid you not. If you could make it up the narrow entrance ramp without getting pushed overboard... it was worse inside. I think this boat ended up at the mouth of the Mississippi and moored in Louisiana, and possibly sunk to make it a fish garden. I recall it was a $10 table at the time.
With a $100 bankroll, and this is hard earned cash, if you are winning... it is plenty. The purpose of a bankroll is several fold. We will assume now that there is a 12 foot table with 80 "maids in waiting", pressing against you with one or both of someone else's hands feeling around for a loose chip in your pocket that you are holding back for later... (Go to Boonville, MO... fewer in attendance.) I had my wallet in my front pocket just as personal protection, sexual or robbery. The bankroll is what is needed to SUSTAIN a player during LOSING GAMES. If you are winning, then the bankroll and action on the table just need time to get you into a position to collect your chips and get the flying $#%& off that boat. But, because of gasoline... I regress just recalling the... experience. Like the Three Stooges and saying Niagara Falls... and Curly would go nuts... That is me and St. Louis.
You will never win by playing a standard $5 bet over and over. Cannot, Will not, cross my fingers and... get your damn hand out of my pocket, NEVER. The Don't Pass might seem statistically a great way to play, but with $100, leave the ends of the table for these pros explaining the Don't to you. Play the Pass Line with the rest of us Pirates wanting to leave with Casino Cash and not a coupon for a free bag of cold pop corn. Play the inside numbers, front line and some some odds. Lose, leave that boat, if it is still moored there and not stolen by the City of EAST ST. Louis. Win, try to get your bankroll of $100 back into your pocket and keep half of every win that comes your way. Feeling rich, throw in a Hard 6 and Hard 8. Lose, get off that boat and find a good clean used practice layout and try some systems. We use to use at home: cents for $1, nickels for $5 and quarters for $25 chips and played on the $12 layout you can get at some hobby shops. Or draw one out on a four foot piece of paper.
If you keep getting your pockets emptied. Try pressing your bets, adding to the Pass Line odds, go down to $3 hardways, etc. Do what is comfortable for your bankroll. But... just for old time sake. And trust me, I have the fondest memories of St. Louis, especially after that $35 Parking Ticket (just west of the Football Stadium) given to me while loading my truck, my wife and Blue Heeler sitting on the tail gate, the meter had time and well fed, but the sign down the street said you had to be out of there at exactly 4PM for, whatever. The guy comes from the opposite direction, at 4:01 in his go cart and sticks paper on my window and the wife says, "whats up?" Well, lets not go into that ugly scene, but I do... I love St. Louis.
PLAY this easy, game. Place the 6 and 8 with the minimum bet, determined by the $5 or $10 table. Then toss the stickman TWO $5 chips to play on $5 on each, Hard 6 and Hard 8. You will not only have sweaty palms over hitting a few risky bets and maybe leave with something in your pocket. Mind you... keep that pocket zipped as that crowd behind you will show no mercy if you are holding a position with three $1 chips in the rack and a $5 Field Bet. Unless you have good life insurance.
Thank you. I feel much better. And I do... I really, really would like to stop in St. Louis again. This is the therapy I have been needing now for twenty some years. Ahhhh.... finally, I can get rid of this feeling that I am being followed by that stinking parking go cart SOB... AND Forum Moderator... if this is in poor taste, and trust me I cleaned this story up... delete this message to prevent ALL Craps players on this Forum from getting Blacklisted at this wonderful, colorful and.. well just charming piece of Hell I remember of St. Louis.
What's an ideally sized bankroll?
That's the topic title for this tread - does anyone have a specific answer? Is there mathematical data to back up a connection between bet size (or pattern) and bankroll needed for a pre-determined bust rate?
In limit poker that is a ton of math to determine how many big blinds you need to start with to play "properly" - is there anything similar for craps out there - keeping it simple; X bet on pass and 3-4-5X odds played; how many times the pass bet X should the bankroll be to have a bust rate of Y after Z hours of play.
I have to say there have been a lot of great responses in this thread.
For a random game of craps, the smaller the bet the better. That is a given. I’d recommend enough money to give yourself a thrill but not so much money as to give yourself a headache should you lose (which you ultimately will). So I’d go with $10 in the session for every $1 I bet. Should the unfortunate happen and you lose your session stake, then quit. (If you are betting $12 on the 6 and 8, then you would need $240. Then throw in a Pass with odds, add that in, and go from there.)
Players of a random game must always remember they are betting real money not just chips. A 10 to 1 ratio seems reasonable to me.
For a dice controller, it is a very different thing. Dice controllers must think just the opposite – they are betting chips not money. Thinking in terms of money is a distraction. Thinking of anything is a distraction. Dice controllers must calm the “wild monkey” in their brains and money matters are food for that monkey.
So I recommend a huge bankroll to small bets. If you were betting pennies you would not think about the money. You would roll the dice in a relaxed way because you emotionally had nothing to lose but a few pennies. So your maximum bet at the start should have the “penny impact” on you.
Every dice controller must make the decision as to what his risk should be. When you invest your broker will usually ask you what kind of risk you can handle. Many people will say, “Oh, I can handle risk” but when an investment gets creamed, they get shaken to the core because they couldn’t handle the risk they thought they could handle. So give some serious thought as to what losses you can handle and maybe double the bankroll you initially thought at first.
(If the following thought pops into your head when you are rolling, you are betting too much money: “My God I have a lot of money out there.”)
Having lost my very first gambling stake of $5,000 over two decades ago I can tell you it hurt. I thought I could handle risk but I couldn’t. Since then I have slowly built up my bankroll so that it would take many decades of constant losing to wipe it out --- and I don’t have that many decades left.
So for the random player, you are betting hard-earned money. For the dice controller, you are betting nothing but chips.
There have been a lot of great responses in this thread!!
If you have an advantage bet 1/2 Kelly (For example if you are a positive expectation of 1% then bet .5% of your bankroll.)
If you don't have an advantage then your ideal bet size is zero so your ideal bankroll size is zero.
If you don't have a positive expectation just bet enough to give you a thrill. As little as possible as much as necessary.
If you have an advantage when you throw then try to bet zero on other people and 1/2 Kelly when it's your turn. This means betting enough so they don't kick you off the table while you wait for your turn to toss the dice. Have you ever been kicked off the table for not betting while you wait for the dice?
Bankroll management only makes sense if you have a positive expectation. If you have a negative expectation you need to bet as little as possible. I'd call this money management not bankroll management.
For me this means sitting around waiting and not betting while the dice get passed around the table. Boring, but not unprofitable.
Lets say my ability to influence dice is 1% and I have $10,000
That means I bet zero on place 6,8, (1.5%HA). Zero on other players.
The minimum on the pass line, 1.4% HA. I'm still losing money because 1%-1.4% means I'm losing money here.
And 1/2 Kelly, .5% of my bankroll on the free odds. $50 on the free odds.
So this would have me winning 1% of $50 = $0.50 and losing 0.4% of what I bet on the pass line.
((Edited several times ))
First, let's use a number of rounds instead of hours of play, as the rolls/hour will vary quite a bit, and it's the number of bets that really count.
So, let's take 60 decisions, roughly 200 rolls.
Let's take $5 pass, 3, 4, 5X odds.
For 60 decisions, the ev is -$4.24, the standard deviation $190.37.
Assuming one doesn't bust first, there is a .1587 probability of losing $195 or so, which represents one SD worse than expectation. So, if you started with $200, you'd have roughly a 15% chance of busting within 60 decisions. Suppose you started with $300; in that case, to bust would mean being about 1.55 SD worse than expectation, for a probability of .06.
This is a rough method of figuring the bankroll necessary to achieve a certain bust rate over a given number of decisions.
300.00 on 10.00 dollar table. 500.00 if you are heavy on odds.
Alan, your RoR numbers are quite a bit off.
I would link to my Blog on this concept but it is not yet done, so when completed I will let you see it first to go over it.
One can easily use EV and Standard Deviation to calculate Bankroll and RoR%s.
Don Schlesinger's Trip RoR formula (from his Blackjack Attack book)
is well known in the BJ camp, not much outside and for many craps bets, even 345X odds, it works well.
So does a simulation.
Your 15% RoR sometimes during the 60 decisions looks to be closer to
about ~27.4% chance of busting. (2 million simulation)~83% higher
Don Schlesinger's Trip RoR formula returns 30% RoR (larger errors for higher odds and low number of trials since the formula does not include skew)
Here is a link to Dunbar's excel sheet using DS formula if interested.
Trip RoR Excel link
I find most times the RoR% over N bets to be between 1.7 and 2X higher than the one-tail SD% value.
For here and now a coin toss example.
I promise to show you my EV/SD Bankroll Blog as soon as I have it completed.(If you are interested)
100 coin flips
$1 bet each flip
ev = 0
$SD = $10
so a 1SD bankroll would be simply $10 and one would expect to bust that stake 15.87% of the time.
It is about 2x that value.
RoR formula: 31.731050786291400%
10 million session sim: 3190132 busted out or 31.90%
Calculated: 31.972732% (markov chain method)
Say a 2SD stake of $20
Theo would be 2.2750132% (1 in 44)
at the end of 100 flips with unlimited credit or a $101 stake
Bust rate is actually 4.604407% about 1 in 22 sessions
I was going to link to a few threads that shows this over at WoV but
the site is down at this time, I update later if you are interested.
I am sure you can figure all this out on your own.
DS RoR formula
risk = N((-B-ev)/sd) + e^((-2*ev*B)/var) * N((-B+ev)/sd)
Yeah, a bit more than adding 2+3
N ( ) = the cumulative normal density function of ( ),
e = the base ofthe natural logarithm system (~2.7183),
B = the short-term bankroll, expressed as a negative number
of starting units,
ev = expected value, or win, for the trip, in units,
sd = standard deviation of the win, in units, and
var = variance of the win (the square of the sd), in units
Get DS book and this is on page 162 with examples. It is worth it.
(I can give you my pdf version since I do have the book - just ask it you would like it)
These methods are very accurate for Craps bets RoR and Bankroll
but are difficult for most to do without a program or spreadsheet.
Good Luck for now
Thanks. That makes doing any math seem too stupid for Bankroll and ruin requirements.
For how long of a length of play and over how many bets again??
I missed that part in your explanation Sir.
And how many sessions on average will still bust out??
I thought so.
FrankS has an article where he says 10X your spread per session. Seems he knows his stuff well.
I do not see anything in it about how many bets and how long to play and what returns of RoR and session bust outs.
Proper Bankroll for Craps
Too many times using it (10X method)
I get 15% to 45% session bust rates. Way too high for me. Maybe the math is just too easy.
One size fits all.
I guess too many just find the "one size fits all"
bankroll requirements the easy way to go,
and they, IMO, are the ones that bitch and cry the most and the loudest
when they are busting out of many sessions way too soon.
OP there is more accurate methods than, as an example - just bet 10X your total wagers on the felt
Good Luck for nows
Oops!! You're right. I got 27.7% from my "C" program sim. I see what the problem is: the - 1 SD outcome includes situations where you lose more than that but come back to that figure later, which you can't do if you have busted! The ev/SD figures are good, assuming that you complete the 60 bets, never busting or quitting because you reached a win goal.
I am interested in you EV/SD blog, 7Craps.
The 10X spread for a session is merely a way to slow down the amount lost and spread it out over time since we are dealing strictly with random rolls. When doing so, all random shooters (and those who bet on random shooters) eventually "bust out" unless they have a monstrous bankroll. Still the long-term prospect for all of them, big bankrolls, little bankrolls, Timmy's college fund, is to lose. With 10X I figure you might get hammered in a session but it isn't quite so bad as busting out on a 20X one, etc. I am just spreading the wealth here...rather, spreading the unwealth here, also trying to cut down those marathon times in which many players engage.
Random rollers / bettors on random rollers are losers. There is no polite way to say this. Some of you agree that it is best to bet nothing on them but that tends to be hard to do if you play during peak hours. Given a table of 12 individuals and five minutes per shooter, not betting means you spend 55 minutes just standing there waiting to get the dice. Most casinos would get annoyed at this. Also, as a random roller you are just spreading out the losses over time --- which is a good thing.
On controlled shooters we are dealing with a whole different animal. Fatigue, emotional upset, distractions are the key ingredients, not how much you have won or lost.
My general guideline is to take the dice between three and five times (figuring an almost empty table or one where I am with Jerry "Stickman" or other good controllers) and then take a break. I can only lose my initial spread all those turns if disaster strikes and lose the minimum that I bet on random rollers who make it past the 5-Count. So let's say my spread on myself is $400, then with five turns with the dice the most I can lose in a session on myself is $2,000 --- if I haven't hit a single bet. (Add in a trivial amount on random rollers since that is what I bet on them) and these are my potental bad sessions.
If I am shooting well then I may go past the five turns with the dice. Also, if I am betting on Jerry "Stickman" or other dice control friends, my shooting is strickly three turns and I'll pass the dice if my friends are doing well and I am stinking up the joint.
Dice control is as much a mind game as a math game --- even though you never discount the math.
So, in general terms, this is my basic guideline for playing. I do enjoy those of you who like to figure out math formulas. That shows intense thinking and analysis.
There are indeed more accurate methods for determining the optimal bankroll size, and I suggest they use utility, not financial success, as the standard of measurement. Is not the goal of gambling, indeed any activity, to maximize the enjoyment derived from it? If a player finds that he/she is busting out way too soon then what's the point of doing a risk of ruin calculation, the result of which is already known? Certainly increasing bankroll is a way to address the problem, but other things, like a modification of betting strategy, should also be considered.
Oh, you -- I'm using a general "you" here, not you specifically, 7Craps -- say you play only for profit; that you're not at the table to have fun? Then all you are saying is that for you there is a one-to-one correspondence between enjoyment and financial outcome. Calculations involving utility are more general in that they also include players who place value on things like table time and socialization in addition to and perhaps even above profit.
The problem with trying to maximize utility mathematically is identifying and quantifying the parameters involved. Risk of ruin and similar calculations may be of academic interest to some, but I -- and I admit this is probably akin to blasphemy -- have never analyzed my own bankroll requirements by grinding numbers. Rather, after extensive experimenting and postmortem analysis I have settled on a betting strategy and a bankroll of 20X of my initial spread per shooter as giving me the best chance of having a positive experience at the table.
My point, if any, is that optimum bankroll cannot be calculated from a betting strategy alone. 10X and the other suggestions offered here seem like reasonable starting points to me, but they are only shots in the dark. As you say, 7Craps, there is no one size that fits all.
If one should try to employ a classic system (Fibbo, Labby, Marty, Dalembert) then of course the lowest bet is your starting bet. But session bankroll would be hugh. So maybe .5-1% !!
If you can't win off a yard, forget about it. The idea in gambling is to increase a small amount to large. Easy on a Craps Table.
So easy even a caveman can do it!
As a novice player myself, I've thought about the OP's question, before. I've decided to buy-in for what I can afford to lose. IOW, my buy-in is my loss limit. I brought this up in another thread: http://www.crapsforum.com/viewthread/9677/ The question there was whether to buy-in for $200 vs. $150, whether the additional $50 was worth it. It came out to be, it doesn't make any difference.
What's the use of buying in for $200, if you don't want to lose it? If I don't want to lose more than $150, then buy in for that only & when the chips run out, that's it. This idea of putting a loss limit on your bankroll doesn't make sense. If I don't want to lose $200, then buy-in for $150. Simplifies things. For me, at least. Just have to watch my dwindling (or increasing) row of chips. If the OP doesn't want to lose more than $50, then buy-in for $50. Multiply these amounts 10x, 20x, however many times. It's all the same.
Sometimes I think flashing a big buy-in is just that. Impress the other players, but leave the game while no one is watching when half that buy-in is gone.
The idea of a loss limit does not make sense to you, but it makes sense to me.
The ancient Greeks believed you should exercise the body and the mind. Exercise makes you stronger.
In my opinion, the greatest quality you can possess as a gambler is discipline; without it you have no chance. By having a loss limit and adhering to it will exercise your discipline, and make it stronger.
You should be able to buy in for 1000 and walk away with no less than 500.
You should be able to walk around craps tables and not play.....you should leave the slot machine ahead 1 dollar. You should leave every game you play, ahead at least 1 dollar. This is difficult to do. The reason for doing it is to see if you can and to exercise your discipline.
I have never left a casino broke. It is a bad feeling to lose.....it is a worse feling to lose all the money you walked in with.
So.........having a loss limit can be beneficial for not only the game your are playing but for future games as well, IMHO.
I can see what you're saying, 777. BTW, congrats for never leaving a casino broke. I guess it's just a matter of personal preference. I suppose if you can walk away w/ half your buy-in (I won't call it a bankroll.) intact, that can be a source of satisfaction, in itself. OTOH, there's not much difference between what I suggest and taking half your buy-in chips & putting them in your pocket. Maybe I've already got the discipline you say every gambler needs, because I think carefully re: what I can comfortably lose.
Craps is fun for me, & I want to keep it that way. So, if I lose my buy-in, that's what I budgeted for that session. Of course I'm disappointed at losing, but there's some discipline in that too: Not letting your losses destroy your enjoyment of the game. And, it's easier to feel that way, if you remind yourself of why you bought in in the first place. Buy-in only for what you want to lose & live w/ it, if you do. There's always the next session. Right?
How much one can afford to lose depends on each and every individual. These amounts and/or percentages are not the same for everyone. To each his/her own. In many ways, the issue has to be resolved before even approaching a table. As Frank S. has said, in so many words, "You shouldn't be risking Johnny's orthodontic needs."
I'm ready to quit the game, entirely, if it's going to affect my financial standing, overall. I hope it never gets to that point, but if it does, by carefully managing my money in the meantime, it'll take longer to get there.
I agree 100% about the buyin being the loss limit. Otherwise, whom are you fooling?
However, the size of the buyin does determine one's chance of lasting some given time at the table, if that's your issue.
No, the size of the buyin is not my concern. That's for each individual to decide, based on a variety of circumstances, which vary widely among individuals. IOW, there is no "ideally sized bankroll" as the OP is asking. I'd say the ideally sized buyin (bankroll) is what you could lose that session. Only you can decide that, by whatever measure you use.
As to the size of a "hand," which the OP may also be asking, I've read that at a $5 table, your "hand" should be no more than 4X the basic bet, or $20. If your basic bet is $10, then $40, etc. This is suggested as staying power at a table. I use this rule of thumb to determine when I'm betting in excess of that $20, which I sometimes do. It's sort of a lode star re: what I'm reasonably risking.
I know this is all very simple to experienced craps players who use sophisticated strategies, etc. I don't know how they gauge what they're risking at any one time vs. their buyin, total bankroll, etc. I assume they do. But, Alan, you are right in this respect: the dice don't care. I find, playing craps, free, on the computer, that I could have $1000, $5, $40 at risk any one time. The winning/losing dice rolls don't change. I can win/lose $20, $40, $500, etc., but regardless of amount, it's the roll of the dice that determines, and no one knows what that will be. A few sessions, great. Other sessions, disastrous. Doesn't matter what strategy I use.