Whats an ideally sized bankroll?

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by JimmyS1985, Feb 24, 2011.

  1. basicstrategy777, Mar 26, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    Taking or laying odds reduces the overall edge the casino has on the money at risk, in spite of what crooked shot says.

    777
     
    #41
  2. goatcabin, Mar 26, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    OTOH, taking or laying odds does not change the casino's expected gain one IOTA.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #42
  3. basicstrategy777, Mar 26, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    The theoretical casino take may be the same but the more odds you take/lay, the smaller the percentage
    of your bet they take.

    777
     
    #43
  4. goatcabin, Mar 27, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Yes, but that's just because you're betting more; you're not saving any money. The only way you can lower the house's expected gain from you is to bet LESS on bets that carry a house advantage. So, if you normally bet $10 pass and you change to $5 pass (regardless of whether or not you take odds), you reduce the casino's theoretical take. Or, if you stop making place bets in addition to your pass bet and, instead, put that money on pass odds, you lower your expected loss.

    Otherwise, you are just increasing volatility without reducing the casino's take, which, of course, may be exactly what you want to do.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #44
  5. DeMango, Mar 27, 2011

    DeMango

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    So we bet zero. Or both you guys learn to shoot the dice as opposed to feeding chicken.
     
    #45
  6. basicstrategy777, Mar 27, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    There is no question in my mind that dice setting is a complete and total waste of time and does not work.

    The only people that benefit are the snake oil salesman that peddle this idea and prey on those seeking the magic bullet and easy profit. Their face saving mantra is ....practice...practice....practice.

    There is no secret....there is no easy profit.

    I believe a chicken feeder, (a grandmother ) held the dice for 4 hours and 18 minutes, a world record. She did not take lessons.
    When asked about how she held the dice for 154 tosses, what she said not only applies to her but to you....she said, "these things happen."

    The new bumper crop of craps winning hopefuls, which feed the proponents of this dark art, would be better served learning the game and learning how to gamble.


    777
     
    #46
  7. DeMango, Mar 28, 2011

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Here is the difference in gambling from being a DI. When you shoot it is called gambling. I would follow Alan's advice and bet zero. When I shoot we have a chance. I'm thinking pass line and the 6 & 8, but Alan might disagree. I'm sure he will chime in shortly!
     
    #47
  8. goatcabin, Mar 28, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Now YOU are putting (the wrong) words in my mouth! I have never advised betting zero. I only advise understanding that every bet except the odds bets carries a negative expectation. From this, one can conclude that, by betting less on the flat bet (or other bets) and more on the odds, one actually REDUCES expected loss. By leaving the flat bet the same and ADDING odds, one does not reduce expected loss. This is what BS777 does not seem to grasp. This is obscured by stating that taking odds reduces the HA.

    Why is the HA for the flat bet and the odds combined, whereas the HAs for place six and place 5 and place 4 are NOT? Why don't the books simply show these HAs?

    pass/come 1.41%
    pass/come odds 0%
    place 6, 8 1.52%
    place 5, 9 4.0%
    place 4, 10 6.67%


    Well, when BS777 or I shoot, we still have a chance -- variance guarantees it. When you shoot, apparently you believe that you can modify the actual probability distribution, as opposed to BS777's delusions about the distribution just naturally being different at different times. I rate them about equal, myself.

    Question: If the pass point is 4 or 10, do you still use the same set as you do when the point is 5, 6, 8, 9?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #48
  9. DeMango, Mar 28, 2011

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Well, when BS777 or I shoot, we still have a chance -- variance guarantees it. When you shoot, apparently you believe that you can modify the actual probability distribution, as opposed to BS777's delusions about the distribution just naturally being different at different times. I rate them about equal, myself.

    Question: If the pass point is 4 or 10, do you still use the same set as you do when the point is 5, 6, 8, 9?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA[/quote]

    Yes Alan;
    My 4 or 10 is usually one die off axis, using the Hardway or All 7 set. So therefore a 6 or 1 shows up to match a 4 or 3. I'm keeping who I brought to the dance, in order to repeat the result. Normally I do quite poorly with two axial sets that are called V3, V2 etc. I know some would use the V2 to try to produce the 4 or 10, I'm just not that good!

    DeMango
     
    #49
  10. goatcabin, Mar 28, 2011

    goatcabin

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    There are a lot of different names for the sets. Personally, I name them by rotational axes, i.e. no6-1 means the die rotates around the 6-1 axis, so that, on a "successful" throw, the die cannot end up on either 6 or 1. There are different ways to arrange the faces, but this implies control over the pitch as well as the axis, which is a "whole 'nother thing".

    On the comeout, I would use both dice on no6-1, so that:

    4 sevens (25%)
    no 2 or 12
    no 3 or 11

    If the point is 5, 6, 8 or 9, I would use no5-2, no6-1, so that:

    2 sevens (12.5%)
    3 sixes and 3 eights (18.8% each)
    2 nines and fives (12.5% each)
    1 four and ten (6.3% each)

    If the point is 4 or 10, I would use no4-3, no6-1, so that:

    2 sevens (12.5%)
    2 each of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10 (12.5% each)

    Apparently the "Hardway" set is the same as my no6-1, no6-1, which is a "high-sevens" set. Unless you glue the dice together, it seems to me this is not a very good choice for the point roll. Actually, the "All-sevens" set is the same axis as the Hardway, just different faces showing. Do you really believe that you have control over the pitch as well as the axis? The V2 set is apparently no4-3/no6-1 and V3 is no5-2/no6-1, the two sets that, based on axis control, are best for point rolls.

    So, how good do you think you are? What pattern of "not good" makes you think the Hardway set is better for you?

    Well, I don't believe any of it, myself, but I have studied the math of it extensively, including running many, many simulations in WinCraps using different probability files.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #50
  11. DeMango, Mar 29, 2011

    DeMango

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    Alan;
    You really have to chart yourself in the casino to see what your dice are doing. There are five "Foundation Frequencies" that a pair of dice can do: Primary Face Hit, Double Pitch, Single Pitch, One Die Off Axis and Both Dice Off Axis. With the Hardways, measure your results as a ratio between PFH's and DP's. If you DP too much then use the A7's for the point cycle and the HW's for the comeout. Realize that you are going to see a 6 or 1 or both about 50% of the time which will decrease your sevens considerably. In short I would reccomend the book; "The Mad Professor's Crapshooting Bible" I've said too much already.......

    Oh and stay away from John Patrick (making a cross with both hands)
     
    #51
  12. goatcabin, Mar 29, 2011

    goatcabin

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    But don't you realize that you can't distinguish between your expected 44.4% "on-axis" results and ones where your dice actually stayed on axis, eliminating the other 20 outcomes. You have to SEE what the dice do. It takes thousands of rolls to get enough info to say you have evidence that you are influencing the dice. But if you watch them, preferably record your throw in super-slo motion, especially with two different colored dice, you can see what's actually happening. If the dice hit the back wall and bounce off to the sides, it doesn't matter what the result is -- it's random!

    You gotta be kidding! >:) You should have read some of the exchanges among me, a guy named Mason and JP on rec.gambling.craps. My first taste of JP was when I bought his book, "Advanced Craps". Even then, I knew enough to see that he was an innumerate asshole.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #52
  13. DeMango, Mar 29, 2011

    DeMango

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    In the past there have been high speeed films taken. It really does seem like random on film. The end results are what matters however. Take what the table gives you and bet accordingly. There are no shortcuts.
     
    #53
  14. goatcabin, Mar 29, 2011

    goatcabin

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    Then it is random.

    That's right; there are no shortcuts. You just have to get lucky. Speaking of which, I'm headed up to Jackson Rancheria today to check out their version of card craps. Got an e-mail back from their Table Games Manager that said, "We offer a 3x-4x-5x game with limits of $5-$500 for flat
    bets with $1000 limit on odds. Lay bets are the inverse of this. Prop
    bets are limited to $1500 max payout. I would go into more detail, but
    I have read many of your posts and know you are well versed in craps
    structure, so I am confident you understand our structure. Good Luck!"

    I don't know on which Forum he's read my posts, or even rec.gambling.craps.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #54
  15. DeMango, Mar 29, 2011

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    There are about 10 casinos in MS where I have way too many friends! And too many stories that begin with; "Before Katrina...."
     
    #55
  16. lucky2bALady, Aug 4, 2012

    lucky2bALady

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    Bring what you can afford to lose :)
     
    #56
  17. dustedone, Aug 5, 2012

    dustedone

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    I have posted on this subject on my point of play; but would like to cover points that I have received through PMs:

    A winning system/strategy falls into a 6 hand profitiblity. That is a players system/strategy should show a constistant profit/win in 6 hand or less. I say this because that 2 of the hands last longer than the average hand per 6 hands. And I say hand not game; remember one can not beat the game one has to beat the dice. In past I may have used the word game(s) but my intent is HAND(S).

    To test one system/strategy, a player needs to figure the on amount of money they are going to risk on each hand. And most players play table minimums which maybe key to most system failures.

    This was recently my observation, but have tested my play earlier this year. My play was very tight and stuck to table minimuns and found my play flat. I found that 3x a hand amount increace to even a 2x increase gave me room to reduce these hand amount once the correct moment condition surfaced. I had worked this into my play in the past through winning at table minimums and increasing the hands stake. I increased my hand stake early in the year to 2 seasons ago and thought this was the reason my profit were up. The increased stake was not reason. It was my play and the ablility to reduce my wager once a favorable bet or game condition was reached. (This is not the five count method or progressive reduction play; though I believe it may have relevence to my observation)

    Once a player figures on your amount per hand they wish to risk. The simple calculation of the amount per hand times 6 hands is the ideal stake for a winning system. My friend has always stated, "that to win at craps, slow increases in profits triumph over large wins."
     
    #57
  18. Quixote2, Aug 29, 2012

    Quixote2

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    I use a bankroll of 7.5 hands. For a player with a $5 table I will put up $20 per hand. Hopefully one pass line single odds and one come with single odds. (I have to ocasionaly pull $1 for the 5 and 9 odds out of the singles stack for drinks). I will only risk $20 per player or hand. If some craps are thrown when trying to establish a number I will place the 6 or 8 for $6. If I am down to $5-6 on the table, I will wait for the shooter to make me a believer by making some points or the place bet. I place winnings in the upper rail until I get my initial $20 back. Any additional winnings go into the lower rail. When the lower rail exceeds $20, I start pressing the bets (odds or place bets). I try to match the total bets on the table to what I have in my lower rail. That way the house only gets 50% of the total winnings and I get 50%.

    Several times I have had well over $100 on the table and in the lower rail. On my last trip to Reno, my best session was $580 cash out on a $150 buy in ($430 profit).

    When a shooter completes his hand, I can tell imediately how much I made on the shooters hand by counting what is in the lower rail (conversely I can see what I lost on a hand by looking at the upper rail and seeing how much less than $20 is up there.

    Normally I play about 3 hour sessions before taking a break. Over the last 20-30 years of following this game I have found that pass/don't pass can grind down to about 15 net don't pass before turning around. I stand around and grind out the slow net loss. The profits are made in the occasional streaks (hot hands) and you have to agressively press but make sure that you have some profits when the 7 ultimately shows. Maybe one hot hand every 3 hours?

    Some day the 6 sigma series will get me and I will lose 6-8 buyins in a row. I have been known to buy another $50 on ocassion, $200 buy in for 10 hands or 20 numbers. So far the $200 total/10 hands/20 net don't pass has been successful. Knock on wood.
     
    #58
  19. dustedone, Sep 4, 2012

    dustedone

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    Q2,

    It is great to see your structure and your patience w/ the game. The bankroll size is purely a form of management and sticking to ones plan. I see guys that will build their wager up slowly w/ minimum investment. When the table sevens-out they load up right where they lost out and seven right back out losing double.

    As I stated earlier that I have profoundly worked out a new game plan for myself that has given me an exciting outlook on the game an my play. To play off the table minimums gives a player the means to increase profits w/out a change to their risk/reward. That is if one develops a successful strategy.

    True I maybe risking more money per hand but the reward go hand in hand w/ my strategy. I am looking for a favorable condition in the hand to reduce the risk and in turn once the certain condition or conditions are met I will reduce the conditional loss. I WILL ALWAYS LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE. But the less money lost on the table the higher the reward.

    Believe me, I have had this strategy within my game play but I guess I failed to see it. My play ALWAYS started w/ table minimums and still does today. But like I said at the minimum there is nowhere to go but up

    keep those dice a warm Q2 and on the table. good luck
     
    #59
  20. Lifeisacrapshoot, Nov 7, 2012

    Lifeisacrapshoot

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    HA means House Advantage. I find it ironic that the acronym is "HA". ;) It feels like "someone" is trying to tell us something. Hope to be saying, Hahaha all the way to the bank.
     
    #60