Whats an ideally sized bankroll?

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by JimmyS1985, Feb 24, 2011.

  1. goatcabin, Mar 20, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Actually, DeMango, if you live near a casino, it's not a bad gamble. Your expectation is no different from anyone else's: edge * action. In this case, you cannot lose more than $100.

    In fact, a $5 passline player can play for a couple of hours with very little chance of busting (around 1-2%); ev is about -$5 on a bet handle of about $303. Chance of being even or ahead after 200 rolls is about 47.8%. The biggest win in 20,000 sessions was $160. Of course, this is not very exciting play.

    With single odds, the bust rate goes up to 20%, but the ev is still just -$4, about 47% chance of being even or ahead after 200 rolls. In 20,000 sessions, the biggest win was $312.

    The fact that you're likely to bust does not mean the casino has any more advantage over you, overall. When you're playing short, there is a premium on the early decisions, of course.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #21
  2. basicstrategy777, Mar 20, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    When you’re playing short, there is a premium on the early decisions, of course.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA

    So hotshot.......tell me how knowledge of THE MATH helps you win when you are playing short and you must win early decisions.

    You going to pull out your probability sliderule and tell me to bet the 6/8 because it is suppose to shows more than any other box number, even though while at the table they are not showing. Afterall it would be the mathematically correct thing to do.....and you would lose.

    Here is another instance where the math would hurt you and the 'Art' side of the game would help you.

    The shorter your time at the table, the less important the math is. It doesn't help you win.


    777
     
    #22
  3. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Why must you always imply that I think the math helps you win? I have never said that, so you are putting lies in my mouth. Stop!

    Why would you lose?

    Knowing the math can never hurt you. It's all up to the dice, not your mindless superstitions.

    How're you doing with your negative probabilities, BTW?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #23
  4. VegasDiceController, Mar 21, 2011

    VegasDiceController

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    With a $100 bankroll try this Jimmy...This is my advice to anyone

    make a $5 PL and $5 DP.. any 2,3,7,11 washout (no loss)...1 in 36 rolls u will lose $5 on a 12 rolled on come out..

    Once point is established ( say a 6..make a lay bet of $6 to Win $5. If the 6 hits you lose $6 lay and the pass and don't pass wash out
    If you lose Level 1 bet, you go for a 2unit Win on Next shooter...with that said, do this after a loss
    Make a $5 PL and a $5 DP bet..Once point made, Lay to make 2units... Example..Point is 8, Lay $12 to make $10...If 7 comes, You Net $4. (a $10 Win on Level 2 minus a $6 Loss on Level 1 bet)..If you

    If you Lose 2 bets on 1 shooter, Level 1 -$6, Level 2 _$12 for a Net of -$18.... You Stop and start sequence over on next shooter at Level 1...

    Qualify a Dont table by looking at amount of chips in the racks not the toal amount of money... count chips... I person could buy in for $500 and it looks like alot... look at majority. If you have a few Dont bettors, thats usually a good sign. People yelling and screaming, I would stay away, but keep an eye as it will turn soon and you will look over and they will be gone...

    This Method of Play has beaten the Book 72 hrs at the Craps Table


    It works and I use it on tables where I see cold or choppy or I see point made then point Loss, etc..

    Hope this helps, any ? let me know
     
    #24
  5. tercol58, Mar 21, 2011

    tercol58

    tercol58 Member

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    My very first trip to the craps table was with $5 after a losing day at the poker table I turned that $5 into $100 with out a clue what I had done rite or wrong been spending some time at the craps table ever since. I neverbu8y in for more than$100 often for less with limited but varied success.
     
    #25
  6. basicstrategy777, Mar 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    Knowing the math can never hurt you. It’s all up to the dice, not your mindless superstitions.

    How’re you doing with your negative probabilities, BTW?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA



    If , as you say, the math does not help you win and it is all up to the dice.............why is your math any better
    at making me a winner than my siperstition....my hunches....my intuition.....my clairvoyance.....my 'due theory'......my following the flow of the dice......my shooter qualification rules.......in short my ART.

    Math is math........it does not tell you how to play craps and be a tough player. You need more ingredients than math in the craps soup to make it tasty. Your soup isn't tasty....mine is.


    777
     
    #26
  7. DeMango, Mar 21, 2011

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Alan;
    I hear you about a $5 PL bet, no odds. That can make $100 last a very long time. If that is the math, fine. But who plays that way? Even in theory the best play, is the 3 point Molly and that takes $15 or $30-32 with single odds. One seven and whoops there goes 1/3 your bankroll.
     
    #27
  8. basicstrategy777, Mar 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    DeMango......You have summed up Alan. Great contributor on the math of the game.....zero contributor when you are looking
    for ways to play that are PRACTICAL. Who the heck is going to play this game by only betting the Pass Line. Ridiculous.

    This is another case where Alan can say, "see I'm right" , about the math of the game ....but the math has no useful, practical application to the average craps player. I may be flawed when it comes to some of my ideas on the game.....but better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without one.


    777
     
    #28
  9. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Of course, this is the infamous "doey-don't". Just be aware that you are paying the 1.4% TWICE.

    I assume you mean lay ODDS, not make a $6 lay bet, which would still cost $1 vig.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #29
  10. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Still haven't learned how to quote, I guess, 777. Use the force! >:)



    When you think you know something that you don't, it can lead to mistakes. If you believe the probability of a seven after three non-sevens is .5177, you are in trouble!

    The math can tell someone who understands it how to get the best chance of achieving a goal - for a session or a lifetime. As an example, if the original poster's goal is to be able to play for a couple of hours with very low risk of busting a $100 bankroll, then the best chance of achieving that is to play the passline with no odds. It's a low-HA, low-volatility way to play. OTOH, if his/her goal is to double the $100, you have to accept a much higher risk of losing the $100, because you need a lot more volatility to have a reasonable chance to double your bankroll. Being able to adopt a strategy that matches your goal is the chief value of probability math as it applies to craps.

    Once you start to play, it's all up to the dice. If you are lucky, your "siperstitions", clairvoyance, "due theory", etc., may APPEAR to work, but they do not increase your chances of winning one iota. These "soup ingredients" are all based on a failure to grasp the ramifications of independent, random events, as is obvious to anyone with a modicum of intelligence.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #30
  11. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    I didn't say it was exciting; in fact, I said it would be boring. However, if a player has only $100 and wants to play for a couple of hours, it fills the bill. You can't have everything.

    BTW, what makes you think the 3-point Molly is "in theory the best play"? Best for whom? Under what circumstances? Do you understand that all come bets carry their own HA? So, if you make come bets with money you could bet on pass odds, you are increasing your expected loss while reducing your volatility. I understand the desire to cover more numbers, but just understand that you are paying for that.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #31
  12. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Once again, please stop putting words in my mouth. I do not ADVOCATE playing the passline with no odds. In fact, I do not ADVOCATE any particular strategy. If a player has only $100 and wants to play for a couple of hours, minimum passline gives him the best chance to do that. It's up to the player to decide what's best for him/her, not to me or to you.

    Actually, I don't think it's unusual for players to simply bet the passline, but I haven't taken a survey. Most of your ideas on the game are flawed, because you cannot grasp the ramifications of a constant probability matrix and random variation.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #32
  13. basicstrategy777, Mar 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    Believe it or not I was never good at math; I had to get after class instuction to get thru calculus .

    What you cannot seem to grasp is that in this game there are no flawed ideas. One idea is just as good as another. There is no best. The best idea is what is working at the time.....and that can change. Your math and its correctness has nothing to do with it.

    You cling to the math like it is a life preserver. Like it is the only life preserver out there. There are many life preservers out there....you should let go of the math one and try them all.

    777
     
    #33
  14. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    You don't say!!!
    I'm shocked!
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #34
  15. basicstrategy777, Mar 21, 2011

    basicstrategy777

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    I hope I brought a smile to your face. ( although it is true )

    777
     
    #35
  16. DeMango, Mar 21, 2011

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    I goto bed for eight hours and the cruise missles are out and about! Alan, the conventional wisdom has always been the three point Molly. My preference is PL plus single odds and place the 6/8. Now take your heart medication for the next one..................................Run a D'Alembert on the former and a Martingale on the latter. Stay away from outside numbers = That's gambling!!
     
    #36
  17. goatcabin, Mar 21, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Whose "conventional wisdom"? All the books I read when I was learning about craps, 30 years ago or so, wrote about "lowering the house advantage" by taking "full odds", which in those days was no more than double odds. Those books had a very narrow view of the math of craps, never really getting beyond calculation of the HA, only hinting at volatility and skew. Of course, the same principles apply to come bets as to pass bets, but nowadays, with higher odds multiples allowed (3, 4, 5X at most casinos, much higher at some), it is possible to concentrate more and more of one's bet handle on the odds bets, which provide additional volatility without increasing the expected loss at all. This is primarily why I eliminated come bets from my play.

    Assuming ratios of 5:5:6:6 you have expected loss per set of resolved bets of about .25 of a unit, compared to .07 of a unit if you just bet 5 pass line and take odds with the rest. Is it worth upping your expected loss by 3 1/2 times to get three numbers covered?

    Do you mean at the same time?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #37
  18. DeMango, Mar 22, 2011

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Yup, same time! Pass line would go 5,10,15,20 etc plus single odds. 6/[email protected] would go 6,12,24,48,96 etc Now that's gambling!
     
    #38
  19. noseven, Mar 26, 2011

    noseven

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    Using the Martingale system is mathmatically sound and it works. The key is the BANKROLL!!! The casino will welcome you using the system because there BANKROLL IS LARGER!!!
    Is it wise to battle with the casino? Probably not, unless you are an adrenaline junkie and adequately BANKROLLED.

    I have applied the Martingale system to field bets.

    1. Whatever the BANKROLL amount be prepared to depart from. This is the price for the adrenaline
    2. Have fun!!! (Every adrenalin high comes to an end so enjoy it while it lasts.)
    3. Pay attention. YOU MIGHT HIT A 2 OR 12 WHILE CHASING YOUR BET.

    IF YOUR FIRST BET IS $100 USING THE SYSTEM, AND YOU LOSE 10 CONSECUTIVE BETS IN PROGRESSION WITH THE SYSTEM, THE ADRENALINE WILL COST YOU $51,200. (of course you have table limits. usually up to $5000)
    IF YOUR FIRST BET IS $5 AND YOU LOSE 10 CONSECUTIVE BETS, THE ADRENALINE WILL COST YOU $2,560. THIS IS YOUR MINIMUM BANKROLL.

    The probability of having a session with 10 consecutive losses is low but not impossible. (Especially if the system is applied to a passline bet)
    When the strategy is applied to the field or the so called "sucker garden bet" probabilty changes greatly in favor of the player and the adrenaline flows faster.
    Moreover, by applying the strategy to the field you are doing more than just chasing the first bet, you are also gambling for the 2 or the 12 to double or triple your OVERALL BETS. If the 2 or 12 is rolled it the late phase of the progression then I strongly suggest geting off of the ride and going to get some cotton candy OR INVEST IN SOME PROPERTY.

    THIS COULD BE CALLED A BANKROLL STRATEGY. IT IS BOTH MATMATICALLY AND PSYCHOLOGICALLY SOUND. HAVE FUN.
     
    #39
  20. goatcabin, Mar 26, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Well, "mathmatically", or even "MATMATICALLY" (see below), the probability of losing 10 straight Field bets is HIGHER than that of losing 10 straight passline bets, because the probability of losing a Field bet is .555, compared to .507 for pass.

    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #40