What' s YOUR Strategy?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015.

  1. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I am running a little experiment.....I have a pair of dice sitting here on my desk. I figure if they do have a "memory" of past events, then they should be able to communicate in some fashion. Having a memory indicates a fairly high level of cognition, and should include some ability to communicate.....so far, nothing but silence. :)
     
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  2. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    LOL! That's what I'm talking about. I love your humor here but on one hand you say play the way you want then on the other hand it seems you're saying but if you play like "this" this is how ridiculous you are for playing like that. So again, over the long haul, negative expectation game, your chances of losing are very good and expected to happen so what's the use? LOL!
     
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  3. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    "Due" theory supplies the casino with the bulk of their income! After the slot player has put several hundred dollars in the machine.....it just has to be "Due" to hit, so they put another hundred in, no hit, now it's really DUE....head to the ATM, and get some more ammunition! :)

    Kinda funny, that random number generator in the machine, is, for all intents and purposes, much the same as the random number generator of the craps "machine"....the dice.
     
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  4. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    I have never said any way of playing was ridiculous, ever...I don't think. I have said that some of the reasoning might be ridiculous though. :)

    What's the use? It's fun, it's exciting, it's challenging! Much the same as life....it's fun, it's exciting, it's challenging....it's a gamble!
     
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  5. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    I would be willing to say any player that shows up at the craps table supplies the casino with their income. Again, the house has the advantage and the player is on the negative expectation side. You make me very happy to say that I play the game for entertainment. If I played for any other reason I would be in trouble. :)
     
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  6. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    I agree you haven't "said" it but when you use the analogy of watching two dice to see if they talk with each other, the analogy suggests ridiculousness. I think I just created a word.
     
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  7. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Reminds me of the "true" story of the three guys that took shift turns at watching the roulette wheel in Harolds Club years ago. They were waiting for X number of black to show, then they were going to bet their entire bankroll on red. I think it was somewhere around 16 straight black hits they were looking for.

    As I remember, it took several months, maybe longer, then they made their play.....I won't bother giving you the outcome. :)
     
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  8. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    But only the "reasoning", not the betting strategy. Waiting for 5 rolls with no seven, then laying the 10, is not a ridiculous strategy, in fact, it is not a bad strategy at all.

    You got me wrong here, almost all of the strategies "Due" theorists use, are sound strategies.....BS777 calling his bets off at some point based, on whatever, is a sound strategy, his reasoning might be construed as flawed is all.

    I have no quarrel at all with number due players, or any other reasoning one uses. My only objection sometimes, is when they claim it gives them an advantage, as relates to the EV of a bet....that's all.
     
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  9. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    Ok thank you for the explanation, we are back on the same page. Trust me, it has been pounded in my head that this is a negative expectation game and the house has the edge. There is no chance that I will think I have an advantage at this game, unless of course I happen to over hear a conversation the two dice are having. ;)
     
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  10. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    It's raining out, a rare event here in SOCAL, was going to go for a hike today, the rain squashed that plan....so I started posting on here to pass the time, and got carried away. I don't like going to the casino on a Friday, especially when so many people are off for the holiday.....but, sounds like a plan, or at least something to do besides pestering the "Due" theorists here. :)
     
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  11. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    One last thought before I head out......Those dice I have sitting on my desk, might just communicate in a way that I can not tune into. May be quantum entanglement, hadn't thought of that.

    I'll ponder that on my way to the casino! :)
     
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  12. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    LOL! Awesome! Best of luck to you!
     
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  13. tabletop123, Nov 27, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Good luck at the tables OAP! Give em hell, buddy!
     
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  14. tabletop123, Nov 27, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Looks like I'm stuck here on the forums until I can sneak away from the wife. Man........
    Her grip Is mighty tight, & it's not the conventional three finger grip. More like a Bear Claw grip! Lol
     
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  15. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2015

    TDVegas

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    take the magic 8 ball...it knows all.:)
     
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  16. betwthelines, Nov 27, 2015

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    you are not correct, blackcar...why do we play? we play the game over the "long haul" with the hope that we will get lucky and WIN...we play it over the short term with the hope that we will get lucky and win...

    THE MATH DOES NOT "SAY" THAT ONE WILL LOSE EVEN OVER A LIFETIME OF PLAY...THE RESULT IS NOT eminent OR EVEN IMMANENT...INDEED THE "MATH SAYS" THAT SOME MUST WIN!!

    You are not correct. RESULTS ARE NOT PRE-DETERMINED..."THE MATH" DICTATES NOTHING...

    Bank Craps is not a game of skill...it is a game of pure luck...therefore your due theory or your feelings or your voodoo bets are just as good as any rookie bet, just as good as anyone's bet especially over the short term, a given session or even a given shooter (as far as i know all bank craps players with the exception of the Tough Craps player organize their play around the shooter of the moment)...

    now, true, over a "long term" it is especially useful to know which bets are better mathematically as higher vig betting makes it problematical at best and more closely impossible over the "long term" to be a winner (i rolled out 1,000,051 rolls [one atta time] on wincraps & was ahead +$21,181 playing tough...a math head on the old rgc group set up a bet file simulating 1,000,000 rolls by 10,000 shooters making higher vig bets [i wish i could remember what those bets were] and ZERO were ahead after a million rolls...that same math guy---'pilot i believe has mentioned his name a few times but it escapes me now as usual---also said that about 12% would be ahead after a million rolls betting pass line with 2x odds...this seemed an awfully high percentage to me and goatcabin, another highly respected math guy who used to post there and here, thought it is closer to 5%...but, still, after a MILLION rolls?) so, yes, "long term" it does matter what bets you make and your statement that losing is "immanent" carries good accuracy given high HA bets...

    but bank craps offers close to, if not the "fairest" bets in the casino---indeed completely "fair" in the case of odds and at some places other "free" bets as well---thus one needs just a little "less luck" to be a winner so it makes perfect sense "why" we would choose that game to test our LUCK...

    tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p





     
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  17. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    Well I've kinda thought that since I was introduced to this game but when the math guys get on a roll it seems the message is no hope. I like to think luck has a big thing to do with it along with the size of the bet and the type of bet. That is what caused me to gravitate to this game. I have no desire to play any other game of chance the casino has to offer. I like the excitement of the table and the people around it. I do have the approach however, that I am playing for entertainment. I do have a craps budget each time I go to Vegas. It is in the budget as money spent. However, if I happen to win, happy days. I try to take in to consideration the type of bet, my bankroll, and what I consider my best strategy for success.

    Sometimes the math guys get to me and I try to understand their thinking because it sure looks to me from their viewpoint and what they say that it is next to hopeless to be successful. I value what you have to say about this great game. I would love to understand in LAYMAN'S TERMS how a tough craps player bets because I would like to try it out on my craps trainer app. I get lost when reading the tough craps player original post. It seems to say if you don't have the 4,10 free bet that is available at the casino you mention, then play the don't pass along with the don't come and take full odds every time. Of course you mention to adapt to your own bankroll. I feel like I'm missing something. Seems there is more to it than that. But thanks again for your thoughts!
     
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  18. Craps Poopshoot, Nov 27, 2015

    Craps Poopshoot

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    Nice. That is Zen Master level of thinking. Love it!
     
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  19. basicstrategy777, Nov 27, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    All numbers apportion themselves the way probability says they will apportion themselves. It happens every single, solitary time, without fail. Every time. Every time.

    It's inevitable....the math says so.

    And if a number hasn't shown in a while, it MUST show to make everything happen the way it's suppose to.

    All I know is what happens......and you can call it any kind of theory you want.

    Of course there is an elastic band, and when it's stretched too far it will come back and make everything right with the world.


    777
     
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  20. lone irish digit, Nov 27, 2015

    lone irish digit

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    So your saying your underwear might be too tight. Be careful when it snaps back.
     
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