What' s YOUR Strategy?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015.


  1. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    I don't think strategy and math are as big a factor as players make them.

    If the bank is unlimited and pays .99 to winners, and you don't manage your money correctly you cant win regardless of strategy

    Look at it like you're the bank. If a guy buys in for 500 plays 10 on the don't and the point is 10. he read in a book somewhere his best bet is to the lay 10x odds he does, after 8 rolls he wins.
    Next point is 4 he makes the same bet after 8 rolls he loses. He stays and plays the same all night until he loses 500


    At the same time a player buys in for 10000 plays 200 on the don't after 4 rolls he plays an iron cross for 200 catches 3 #s then takes everything down except the flat bet. He does the same on the point of 4 then colors up and leaves up 2.5%.

    Which of these players would you want on your game.
    I used the don't with lay as an example of what is considered by most a strong play

    I used the iron cross as an example of what is considered by most to be a bad play
     
    #61
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2015
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  2. Craps Poopshoot, Nov 27, 2015

    Craps Poopshoot

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    7uwin,

    Seems like your time as a Craps Dealer has well educated you as in to the way to profit. Congrats!

    I hope everyone is taking notes here. 7uwin is telling you the basics of pro Craps play.
     
    #62
  3. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    No place for religion in craps.....nothing says the seven must appear 1 in 6, that is the odds of it showing, but.....oh hell, you know this. Forget it.
     
    #63
  4. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Sounds like you have a running mate for your "Due theory".
     
    #64
  5. basicstrategy777, Nov 27, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    You and I know we can't call it on the nose.......but if you are in the area it helps you win.

    And I say the past can give you a rough idea when you are in the area.

    I use it....that plus magical powers I possess.

    I love ya bro..


    777
     
    #65
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  6. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2015

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Short term variance can yield just about any result. I rolled four 12's in a row. The guy next to me playing a horn martingale on wins has enough money to choke an elephant. Me, playing pass line bet lost 4 in a row.

    Anyone can come up with ANY scenario for winning. The more you play, the more hours you spend at the table...the more you realize strategy and math ARE importent to the bottom line.

    A good bet is one that hits. A lot of craps is simple timing. Whatever your play, you're either at the table at the right time...or not. If not, I'd rather only lose $1.36 per $100 wagered than $10 per $100 wagered.
     
    #66
  7. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Waving the white flag here!

    I am seriously out numbered, by the "Due" theory, and "trend" theory proponents, and why you make your bets, or for what reasons, is your business anyway. And in most cases, the strategies mentioned, are as good as any, and better than some....no matter that the reasoning is flawed.

    Who cares if past events offer no useful information about future events at the craps table.

    And if you are consistently winning with what ever strategy you use, who am I to question that.

    This doesn't mean I won't relapse and comment in on these proffers in the future, but it might need a rest for now.
     
    #67
  8. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    No problem 777, you have an agenda, you have to defend your "Due" theory.....you wrote the book. :)
     
    #68
  9. DeMango, Nov 27, 2015

    DeMango

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    Nope (last I heard)
     
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  10. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I'm getting close to becoming a convert, take up DI, and employ "Gambler's Fallacy" in my play.

    Since I am still in a negative position for my craps play over the years, and there are all those here on the forum that are net positive using the above strategies, maybe it's time to climb on the wagon!

    But first, I have to "believe" all the stories of success, and the only reason for my not believing all the stories, is based on my understanding of the mechanics of the game.......reinforced by the casino's stories of success.

    But I will ponder those factors some more, maybe I am missing something here.

    Becoming a "Pro Craps Player", instead of just a craps player sounds inviting. :)
     
    #70
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  11. Craps Poopshoot, Nov 27, 2015

    Craps Poopshoot

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    Going Pro is really all about being detached.

    No ego,
    No greed,
    No regrets
     
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  12. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Sounds good! If I employ all three of those, I can expect to reduce the EV of the bets I make? In other words, if I wait for 5 rolls without a seven, then lay the 10, I increase my chances of winning by more than 2 to 1?
     
    #72
  13. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

    black3car Member

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    I value your approach to the game via math and what you say definitely plays a part in how I approach the game. However, I also like to use the "Due" theory simply because if I used your approach and did not deviate from it at all, I wouldn't play the game because I'm going to lose over the long haul. Not saying I'm gonna win using the "due" theory it is just the idea that if I approach the game according to the math and the negative expectation, I would be depressed playing the game because I already know the end result...I'm a loser. It might make you feel better if we changed the name of the "Due Theory" to "The Blind Faith " theory. I think you could deal with it a bit easier by just laughing it off then. ;)
     
    #73
  14. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2015

    TDVegas

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    That's like saying "it's due"...
    or "wait for a trend"....
    or "follow the wave"...

    These terms play no role in how the dice roll and when you are being paid less than fair value on every single bet you make...ego, greed and regret really play no role in AP.

    No ego...I never go in with a chip on my shoulder or a superiority complex
    No greed....I'm not greedy
    No regrets...Is that like drink your milk today? I see no correlation to advantage play in "regret"
     
    #74
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  15. black3car, Nov 27, 2015

    black3car

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    Again I must say you are right TDV but knowing that I find it hard to play the game without using the "due theory" otherwise we know the outcome in the long run (loser) so I can't come to grips with playing a game that I'm gonna lose no matter what over the long haul. What I especially have trouble understanding is those of you who discount everything but the math, sincerely, why do you play? Over the long haul the result is eminent...you along with everyone else will lose.
     
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  16. TDVegas, Nov 27, 2015

    TDVegas

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    If I thought "it is due" and played ONLY with that mindset....I would simply be a HEAVY Don't pass with odds better. Once you have broken thru that first roll and no 7-11 has come up...the 7, in a sense is ALWAYS due. You now have the advantage. To me, it's a no brainer if you play with a mindset of "it's due". The 7 is the most common role. In a sense, that is what is due.

    I don't know...maybe I'm being obtuse and not understanding.
     
    #76
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2015
  17. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    But The math does not say you are going to be a loser, it just says what your chances are of losing or winning. We have a chance to win because of the variance of the game, and if that variance favors our bets, we get LUCKY, and smile on the way home!

    Enjoy the game, and play any way that makes you feel good about your decisions, it's your money. Doesn't matter the reasoning, due, faith, little voice, what ever....those are usually as good as any other reasoning. It is a random chance game, and we pay the casino a small commission to enjoy it, pretty simple really.
     
    #77
  18. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    We do not know the outcome, and never can....the math tells you nothing about a future outcome, except the likelihood of it happening or not happening. You are misconstruing what the application of mathematics is really telling you about the game.
     
    #78
  19. lone irish digit, Nov 27, 2015

    lone irish digit

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    My best advantage play strategy is to lay all the box numbers after the 20th roll. Crapspooper reference shows I have a 98% probability of hitting a seven on the 21st roll. So far I have not lost with this stategery but am still waiting for someone to get past 20 rolls. Will update later if someone on this table gets past 20.
     
    #79
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  20. Onautopilot, Nov 27, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I miss Goatcabin, always liked his analogies, especially the one, "There is no cosmic rubber band pulling things back to expectation!".
     
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