Separate names with a comma.
Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015.
OAP are you ready to say uncle like Frank did to Crapers math reasoning.
I don't understand why anyone would think roll 1 is different than roll 5? Everything is the same whether roll 1, 5, 15 or 25. Every roll is like a new day with the exact same expectations....roll 1 or roll 35.
Yep, for each role that is true. Though the Science of Probabilities and Applied math is more than most peole can grasp. Though guys like James Grosjean have used this to dominate over the casinos in every game.
But, what the hell do I know....
Close, real close.
I don't know much either, but I do know that there is no one using probability theory to dominate the game of bank craps! They may claim to, but claims are a dime a dozen, maybe cheaper.
This does not mean that someone can not use probability theory to establish a penetration level that can produce some winning percentage of bets, or sessions. I use it all the time, it is the basis of all of my play strategies!
But I would never claim it gives me any advantage over the EV of an individual bet, never! It does however give me the advantage of "knowing" my chance of success, it allows me to select the deepest penetration my bankroll will allow, for my session goal.
I have strategies that are expected to win 99% of the time, but that is not dominance of the game, that pesky 1% is hiding around the corner, ready to introduce its self at any moment!
the 5 count serves a purpose.
it doesn't increase anyones chance to win more.
people cannot accept that if they go into a casino and double their bankroll in 6 minutes or lose 70% of it in 6 minutes, and they are done, its torture.
by waiting for a 5 count, it prolongs the time at a table.
wont increase your chances of winning, but it helps the uncontrollable urge to stay at a table and play.
actually it increases one's chance to win LESS
also lose less, of course...
oh, yes, time at the table is a rational, understandable goal---in fact it is a tertiary goal of the Tough Craps player...
but, as with everything "tough" it seems, it is "trumped" by a secondary goal: to get plenty of action
thus the 5 count is not for him...but is solid & good for the goals of some, to be sure...
tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
You know Tom, you often say you don't know any other "tough craps" players besides yourself, and I believe that. But years ago, I think I might have been able to introduce a few to you. When I dealt the dime table, yes, that is 10 cent table, in Harolds Club, there were a few players that came in with their $5 bankroll, and bet pass line with full odds, come bets with full odds, pressed, and pressed.
They almost always left to replenish their $5 bankroll and return for another go at it, over and over again......but, on those rare days that they walked away with $200-$300, it was a joy to behold!
Note: Full odds back then was double odds.
i have not stated outright, other than perhaps by error of omission, that i was the only Tough Craps player -- i would not be surprised if there wasn't/aren't others (and indeed you are suggesting that at least there was [past tense] at one time)
what i HAVE stated---and have not been contradicted in the approx 15 to 20 years i have posted it---is that i am the only KNOWN TC player that plays tough EXCLUSIVELY (of course originally---and actually until quite recently---i had indicated that there was two of us but i have lost track of the Other, who is therefore no longer "known"---coupled with this too is the very likely possibility that this rather portly gentleman, who seemed too to struggle with breathing[!], has left this veil of tears since he was quite a bit older than i at the time i played with him [twice] about 15 years ago, putting him roughly in his early-to-mid 90s would he is still with us...in any case he has not [afaik] nor is posting on public forums...but at the time he was most definitely "known")
whatever. who cares? primarily i hang my hat on "the Tough Craps player" (singular) as narrative license on these forums, yet in defense of that---if defense is even necessary---it remains---again as far as i know---salient, accurate...and fun...
tom "home runs are sometimes boring" p
"Fun is good" - Mike Veeck, 1993
Sorry, the reply got mixed in with the quote, too tired to do it over.
The Illusion of Advantage Play is that you always win. You can have the advantage with Video Poker or Blackjack and still lose, that happens all the time. And, it is possible to lose more sessions than winning session but have your wins far out pace your losses.
Craps offers quite a few Advantage Plays but few, if any, use them because they are counter intuitive and very dull to play.
By the above definition, Stanford Wong is a tough craps player. Everything by the book of math.
he never makes place bets?
yes as long as the natural 7s arnt killing me. Sometimes I look to leverage my don't. If im behind an outside number for a 100, run a 4 count with a couple 6 or 8s I may place 30 on 6 and 8.
If they 7 out im still up 40% of the base wager.
If I catch 2 numbers and take them down and the point hits I only lose 30%.
If I catch 1 and they pass I lose 65%
Catch all 3 up 170%
So if you haven't rolled a 7 in 35 rolls.....and everybody say 1 in 6.......does that mean the 7 is due ?............for 1 in 6 to hold, you need that 1, do you not.........and if it must happen religiously, how can you say it's not due. I mean , logically speaking.
Sometime you people don't make sense.
Sometimes 7 doesn't come for 35 rolls. with a count i'm in the game and will make money.
sometimes it comes 20 times in 35 rolls. with a count I will miss a lot of those 20.
Mostly, the dice follow the expected probabilities and expectations, however they can, and do, go off on a tangent where you can get a 35 roll and no sevens. That would be rare but not impossible.
Ultimately, it is always up to the player how they play and when they play. I simply choose to play when the dice are behaving as expected and I choose to only put my bets out there when I have a likely shot at winning.
If the dice are acting strange then I will wait or I am off to the next table/casino.
The craps table is not a Rodeo, you don't have to ride the table till you break it!
" I simply choose to play when the dice are behaving as expected and I choose to only put my bets out there when I have a likely shot at winning. "
Sounds like a great strategy.