What' s YOUR Strategy?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015.

  1. tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    We hear it all the time. Five Count, wait for an inside number to roll, wait for a repeating number, etc. Before placing a bet.

    The seven shows roughly 16.67% of the time. There are no Systems to beat a negative expectation game. How many of you feel that It behooves you to employ some type of qualifying method before placing a bet, or do you jump right in after the point is established with your place bets?
     
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  2. random_roller, Nov 25, 2015

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    I tend to bet more aggressively when I'm rolling. Not because I think I'm more skilled or luckier than another shooter, but because I can accept losing on my rolls better than I can on someone else's. Bet on yourself and give it your best shot, so to speak. So I'll make additional bets right after establishing a point when I'm the shooter.

    Having said that, I'll wait at least 1 roll after a point is established before placing additional bets when others are shooting. No mathematical rationale -- it's psychological. I really dislike losing my place bets on a PSO. I feel "ripped off" when that happens. Also, if there's a stick change (or other delay in the game, such as a buy in), I'll also wait a roll before making an additional bet.

    Of course, if the table has been decidedly one way or the other, I'll make adjustments, especially if I'm way up (or down).
     
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  3. basicstrategy777, Nov 25, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Because prevention of early losses are so important to me, I qualify every shooter. Patience is important in this game.

    My book contains 19 strategies, and this is one of them.

    777
     
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  4. tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    BS777, Pm me some information on your book (specifically price, Contents, etc. Thanks!
     
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  5. eagleeye2, Nov 25, 2015

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    tt,

    It has been said many times that, If You Bet on Every Roller; you are a SHURE LOOSER, from my observations playing on Craps Tables, in Casino's, that has been verified.

    Thus some type of strategy appears necessary; assuming you wish to win, rather than be entertained, thereby donating $$$ some 60% of the time.

    Now it appears that some rollers are just lucky or sufficiently skilled to have more good rolls than bad rolls, one would be best to bet on them & skip the others, assuming that is possible.

    Personally, I do not bet on other rollers unless I have seen them roll before & made a judgement on that roller. If you hang around your Local or Favorite Casino, you will recognize many of the rollers there & bet according to your past experience with that roller.

    If you flit around, or have access to multiple Casino's you will see mostly new rollers. I like to see all shoot & watch the action closely on that shoot. Only if I really like that shooters throw, will I bet on them prior to seeing their full roll. Naturally a roll under 5 will prevent me from betting on them the next time they get the dice.

    As to my Rolls, I generally limit myself to Betting on Three #'s, the point + two of the #'s I have been hitting on that table, as it has been pointed out here, "all tables are a bit different, even with a consistent throw".

    Now, some may say that the three BET limit is Defeatist on a long roll, but hold your horses there! Any long roll brings out Point #'s beyond the three originally selected, assuming that new # is made, thus for each NEW # you make, you have added an additional # Bet to the original three. If you make three or four points, you now likely have 4 or 5 points Bet on. With a long roll, you clean up, with a minimum of initial risk.

    Additionally, I tend to Press #'s that I hit, thus making nice profits, before 7'ng out, while further limiting risk of loss.

    Think about it, & give us your reply.

    eagleeye2
     
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  6. tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Well, because i TRY to influence the roll, the 6/8 is always a part of my strategy. I normally wait one or two rolls before making a place bet, so that i can see what my dice set is doing.

    I' m constantly in a struggle to bet only on myself, but. ........ you know how that goes. I usually pick up ALL the numbers as the hand progresses!
     
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  7. random_roller, Nov 25, 2015

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Do you try and get an idea on the come out roll or are you trying (setting) for a 7 / 11? Or just chucking the dice towards the other end of the table on the come out?

    When I'm at a casino, for better or worse, I want to play, not watch. So I end up betting on almost every roller -- most of the time PL, but sometimes DP. That doesn't mean I'll make additional bets beyond that on each shooter, but I usually try to have at least one other bet. If I want to gamble for a while but need to protect my buy in first and foremost, I'd play Pai Gow, not craps.
     
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  8. tabletop123, Nov 25, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    I play to avoid the seven. I want a good dice set that's gonna give me loads of Box Numbers. Sometimes i'll play a three way seven & set for Seven' s on the come out roll.

    There's so many different ways to attack the tables! Unfortunately, they're all negative expectation Systems. Craps is a very tough game to beat.
     
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  9. Liman

    Liman Member

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    Ill never understand a 5 count to determine the "quality" of a shooter.

    to me, its just another myth.

    why not qualify to 8? 10?
    qualify up to 20 and most likely never lose a dime in any casino for the rest of your life.
     
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  10. Liman

    Liman Member

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    but I do have a strategy, although its a well kept secret, I will let it go here.

    bet pass line, one unit, take 5 times odds to start, Bet come, one unit, 5 times odds, repeat, keep 2 come bets up at all times with pass line.
    Only increase odds past 5 once you make 20% of your bankroll not counting the money on the table.(approx. 20%, no one has to count their money constantly at a table)

    I win more than most do here, no dollar wise, session wise, so all the people that laugh at this sensible straight forward betting, all I can say is, play with me anytime Im at a casino, lets see who leaves with more money according to their bankroll. 9 out of 10 times it will be me. Guaranteed.

    for those that want to see one of the luckiest strategist play craps, meet me at Valley Forge Casino December 29th and 30th.(as long as weather cooperates)
    Ill show you how its done. Noone has to pay me, and as usual, my treat for lunch/dinner whether I kill them or get murdered.
     
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  11. lone irish digit, Nov 25, 2015

    lone irish digit

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    That strategy Liman is somewhat close to the late Rapping Captains level 1 exponential betting strategy. If my memory is correct he used the 20% to increase the odds trigger but had the 5 box number covered by come bets and odds.
     
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  12. eagleeye2, Nov 25, 2015

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    You must either have Bad Luck @ Craps, or bet on the High % House advantage Bets.

    Pass Line, Place the 6 & 8 have only 1.4% house advantage, with Odds on Pass Line reducing that 1.4% house advantage further; while Pai Gow has the following house odds, taken from wizard of Odds web Site.

    ""House way Strategy — Dealer Banker

    Event Pays Combinations Probability Return

    Win 0.95 2,402,491,783,820,756 0.291195 0.276635
    Push 0 3,341,087,256,920,524 0.404958 0.000000
    Loss -1 2,506,879,990,473,120 0.303847 -0.303847
    Total 8,250,459,031,214,390 1.000000 -0.027212""

    Or a 2.72% house advantage, nearly double!

    Could you explain how you hang in there better with Pai Gow with a greater negative advantage on bets?

    eagleeye2
     
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  13. random_roller, Nov 25, 2015

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Happy to explain.

    First off, I am well aware of the house advantage of the bets I make in craps. Placing the 6 or 8 results in a 1.52% HA, not 1.4%. I don't make too many high HA bets at the craps table (dollar total relative to my PL w/odds, Place 6 & 8 bets), but if the table is decent I will make a field bet (or an iron cross bet if no PL wager) and/or a covered $2-$5 hardways, as well as a $2-$5 fire bet. I will also buy the 4/10 if the vig is paid on a win. Last, but not least, I also make periodic bets for the crew.

    Pai Gow Poker is often a much slower paced game (@25-30 hands per hour at a full table) than Craps, with @40% of the hands resulting in a push. Statistically, I expect to win @29% of the hands and lose @30% (rounding accounts for the remaining 1%). Skill in setting (hands) comes into play in this game and reduces the HA -- and, unlike in craps, this is quantifiable. But here's arguably the biggest difference -- I have a considerably lower average bet per Pai Gow hand than I would per roll at the craps table. At a $25 table, even if I only make a PL & Place 6 & 8 bets, I have $85 subject to a 1.41% to 1.52% HA (assuming no odds), versus $25 subject to a 2.54% to 2.72% HA for a hand of Pai Gow. The expected loss on just the place 6 & 8 bets alone is $0.91 ($60 x 0.0152), versus $0.68 ($25 x 0.0272) per Pai Gow hand. Finally, I tend to tip the dealers more frequently when playing craps, and after a while those dealer tokes add up. Taken together, I am much better able to preserve my buy-in when playing Pai Gow versus Craps.

    BTW, I have never lost my entire buy-in ($100 min.) at Pai Gow. Even with an expected HA of 2.5% to $2.7%, I don't recall having ever lost more than $40 or $50 after playing Pai Gow for several hours. Wish I could say the same thing about craps. Of course, the flip side is I haven't ever won big playing Pai Gow, either.
     
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  14. Onautopilot, Nov 25, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    Never understood the logic behind the 5 count, or any other count for that matter, other than not betting as much as you would have. But to each their own, and if it extends your time at the table, and that pleases you, go for it.

    The EV of a bet never changes, whether you bet it on the first roll or the 20th roll, makes no difference. I don't wait around, I'm originally from the south......"Just get 'er done!". :)
     
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  15. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    I play pass or dont on almost every shooter. there is no logic and no math. I use a 4 count before I go further into the game. I miss a lot of PSOs and runs where 7 is showing more than once every six rolls sometimes I will count 5+ times before my action shows up

    I also miss a lot of numbers, but I'm not playing for the big hand anyways
     
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  16. Liman

    Liman Member

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    if your playing the don't, wouldn't you benefit by all those pso's?
    why qualify a shooter(for me, this is a moronic expression, qualify a shooter like this means anything) by waiting for a 5 count if you want him to strike out?
     
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  17. basicstrategy777, Nov 26, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    OAP.....the reason for the 5 count is that , after the come out, the PL bet is resolved in less than 4 rolls....and as you know 7 is the dominent #.

    People want to not experience the early PSO experience which is not uncommon. I've seen the dice go to all 16 shooters and if people bet their normal PL w/odds and place the 6/8....they would lose a big bunch of money with no winners.

    The reason for the 5 count is to avoid the above and to aoid early losses ; it's a form of qualification of the shooter.

    The 5 count is not a bad play and a form of strategy the player can use to avoid a bad streak of quick 7 outs.

    Early losses, early losses, early losses must be avoided at all costs....the 5 count can help to prevent early losses. It eliminates them for sure.

    The math says after the come thge bet is resolved in 3.375 tosses.

    You can counter this with the random/independent crap but random/independent will not prevent early losses....with certainty, the 5 count will.


    What is your arguement for not using it. You might miss out on winners......who cares; winning will take care of itself....it's losses you must micro-manage, and the 5 count is on tool you can pull out of your strategy bag.

    777
     
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  18. tabletop123, Nov 26, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Some argue that you should bet the first five rolls & then turn your bets off. Others say wait five rolls & then turn your bets on! The five count WILL save you from all the Pso' s, & short rolls, but you aren't any safer after that fifth roll. 16.67% regardless!
     
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  19. tabletop123, Nov 26, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    However, i will admit that the five count has saved me ä lot of money. On the flip side, you WILL have days wherein you seven Out as soon as the five count is completed. That's why they call it gambling.

    When not using the five count, i still NEVER bet the next roll After the point is established. NEVER!
     
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  20. basicstrategy777, Nov 26, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    Nothing is fool-proof regarding developing a strategy for playing the game.

    You just have to figure out and devise strategies that, based on your experience, the math, and voo-doo suit YOU the best.

    Your strategy soup, I believe, needs more then the math ingredient, to be the most effective. Just math is a bland soup anyway........I want/need a little spice. Can't hurt.....who knows.


    777
     
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