Waiting for the point to be established?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by mt11, Jan 24, 2010.


  1. idoc

    idoc Member

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    Diceman, how much are you betting? If you only betting table min and 2xodds it must take you a while to make "thousands".
     
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  2. goatcabin, Feb 24, 2010

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Well, diceman, somebody could make the same statement about "never bet more than single odds...", etc. etc. If you don't believe the odds are "free", why do you take odds at all?

    Player 1 takes no odds.
    Player 2 takes single odds.
    Player 3 (diceman) take double odds.
    Player 4 takes 3, 4, 5X odds.

    (All four have the same-sized flat bet and the same bankroll. The casino allows 3, 4, 5X odds max.)

    After a hot roll, player 2 says to player 1, "You could have made a lot more if you had been taking odds!"

    Player 3 (diceman) says to player 2, "You could have made a lot more if you had been taking double odds!"

    Player 4 says to diceman, "You could have made a lot more if you had been taking max odds!"

    Each player speaking is correct.

    The next week, they all meet again at the same casino. The dice are "cold". After an hour, player 4 is broke. Diceman says to Player 4, "You would still have some money if you had only been taking double odds!"

    After another half hour, Diceman is broke. Player 2 says to Diceman, "You would still have some money left if you had only been taking single odds!"

    After another half hour, Player 2 is broke. Player 1 says to Player 2, "You would still have some money left if you hadn't been taking odds! Those odds bet are not "free"; they can kill you!"

    You're all right, it's a candy mint and a breath mint! >:)

    Taking or laying odds adds volatility without adding any house edge, since they pay the true odds, unlike any other bet on the table. Volatility works both ways, allowing you to win more when you are lucky, and lose more when you are not. If your bankroll is not sufficient for the level of odds you are betting, then your "risk of ruin" is going to be high; at the same time, a higher odds multiple gives you a better chance of overcoming the house edge on the flat part of the bet.

    Something to consider: the more of your betting goes on the odds bets, INSTEAD of the flat bet, the lower your expected loss is.

    For example, if you bet $10 flat with double odds, your expected loss for 60 bets is $8.48 with a standard deviation of $221; your average bet is $23.33. If you bet $5 flat and take 5X odds, your average bet is $21.89, your expected loss for 60 bets is $4.24 and the standard deviation is $228.15. Your "risk of ruin" for any given bankroll is about the same, because the volatility is about the same, but your expected loss is cut in half.

    One way to use odds that I like is to start out betting the passline minimum with single odds. If I get ahead, I will start taking double odds; if I continue to win more, I will go to 3, 4, 5X. If you progress the odds instead of the flat bet, you get more variance without adding to your expected loss. In that sense, the odds bets are "free".
     
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  3. dados

    dados Member

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    News from the Dice Brickwall Graveyard near Searchlight, nevada .
    I see some new HEADSTONES in the Dice Brickwall Graveyard near Search light Nevada .

    What ever happened to money management ?
    Single odds, full odds , still ODDS dont work as well on the DO PASS as they do on the DONT PASS .

    REPEAT: DONT PASS .UNLESS YOU KNOW PROFESSIONAL STOP LOSS MOVES AND THE NUMBER ONE RULE FOR PLAYING DONT PASS
    THEN CAREERWISE OUTCOME WILL BE FATAL. YOU MUST ALSO(DONT PASS) BE LIKE THE CONG-"TAKE THE STEAM"!
    INCLUDED IS MONEY MANAGEMENT . THE SALMON. FROM DEATH COMES LIFE .

    YOU DETERMINE YOUR DONT PASS STAKE BY THE NUMBER OF SALMON IT CONTAINS . EXAMPLE:
    3 NUMBER ATTEMPTX6-STAKES. YOU ARE WORKING 3 SALMON EACH STAKE USING PROFESSIONAL STOP LOSS MOVES
    (STOP LOSS MOVES GET THE MONEY)

    A (ONE) STOP LOSS MOVE-1.SHOOTER "BUCKS" A POINT YOUR BEHIND(MAKE NO FUTHER BETS AGAINST THIS SHOOTER)
    SAY YOU WIN 2 LOSE 1 OF THE NUMBERS YOU ARE BEHIND , YOU WOULD THEN SHOW A PROFIT WHICH GOES IN THE POCKET OR 2ND GROOVE ON THE DICE TABLE ,ABLE THEN TO START AGAINST THE NEXT SHOOTER WITH A FULL STAKE (3 SALMON)

    WHEN ALL OF THE STAKES (6) HAVE BEEN USED UP YOU COUNT THE CHIPS(SALMON) YOU HAVE IN YOUR POCKET
    If more$ than your takeout stake (Percentage) you go up one LEVEL , so long as you win you increase the Salmon Value, UNTIL YOU TAKE THE CRAP TABLE HOME WITH YOU .

    Next week i will give you a TAKE A SHOT (HI PROFIT) Dont pass game , it is NOT for the faint hearted-RUSSIAN LOUIE was the only person i ever saw who could play this game for 30 days !
    DADOS correrelgallo www.diceprofession.com
     
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  4. goatcabin, Feb 25, 2010

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Well, some don't like laying odds because you have to bet more than you win. Obviously, this involves more risk early in your session, since you can lose money faster. OTOH, you are less likely to lose more points on the don't side because the seven is the most likely number.

    Let's say you have two $10 bettors, one pass and one don't pass, each betting 3X odds on/against the four, for three bets. The DP is laying $60, the pass betting $30. The ranges of possible outcomes are:

    DP -$210 to +$120
    pass -$120 to +$210

    A guy on rec.gambling.craps used these ranges to argue against laying odds on the DP/DC. However, he was ignoring the probabilities of each outcome. It is much less likely to lose three point decisions on the DP/DC than on the pass/come, of course. However, the risk is there; if you have a bad streak of luck, you can get hammered laying the long end.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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