Waiting for the point to be established?

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by mt11, Jan 24, 2010.


  1. mt11

    mt11 Member

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    I've been trying something new. Been running it on practice sites before trying it live. Previously I had been putting one unit on the pass, taking full odds when the point is established, and following with two come bets with full odds behind as well. What I'm doing now is waiting for the point to be established before putting bets out. If the point is a 4/5/9/10 I do not play the pass, and only play two come bets with odds. If the point is a 6 or 8, I make a two unit bet and back it up with full odds. Is this allowed at most casinos? Some practice craps games online have the ability to make a pass bet after the point is established, and some do not allow it. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks.
     
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  2. lucky4688, Jan 24, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    mt11,

    I have to agree with bypassing the come out roll. I do that as well. I don't believe the pass line is as benefitial as its made out to be. By bypassing the come out roll, you can pick and choose which numbers you want to bet on. Also, you are not locked in to a commited even money wager. Personally, if im going to risk my money, i want to be able to have control over what my bets are working for.

    You can put money on the pass line after the point is established, however your money is obviously working for the point. Casinos allow this because once the point is established the odds are in the houses favor with the seven being the most common number thrown on the dice. I wouldn't recommend commiting money to the pass line, especially if the point is already established. The whole reason for playing the pass line to begin with is the get the 2 to 1 advantage on the come out roll. Even by taking true odds on the pass line will not give you a significant advantage with payouts. Especially if you are working with a 3x 4x 5x odds table, compared to 100x or 500x.

    I'm not sure what the significance of making come bets with a point of 4, 5, 9, 10 is, over making a pass line wager if the point is a 6 or 8?

    Some may disagree, but here is what i recommend:

    If you want to bypass the come out roll, that is perfect. Once the point is established, instead of dropping money on the pass line, make place bets on the number you were going to make the pass line wager for. They are much more versatile and allow the player more control of his bets and betting strategy.

    Here is why: A 10 dollar pass line wager on the 6 or 8 with max odds of 50 pays 70, A 60 dollar place bet pays 70. Why commit the extra ten dollars which cannot be removed, called off, or regressed. Pressing the even money wager doesn't give you an advantage because a 20 dollar pass line bet with max odds of 100 pays 140, and a 120 dollar place bet pays 140.

    If you hit the 60 dollar place bet for 70 and wanted to press, you can go to lets say 90. A 90 dollar 6 or 8 pays 105. If you hit the point and come back up on the 6, in order to press you have to increase the pass line bet in order to increase the true odds bet. You could make the pass line 15 and the true odds 75. All that and it still pays 105. And now you have committed 15 more dollars to the even money pass line bet, which cannot be removed once it is made.

    Lets say you wanted to removed your odds or just come down on a number all together, you can remove the odds but your pass line stays up. So no matter what number you are betting on, if you do not take true odds, your pass line bet for that number will always pay you significantly less than a place bet.

    I would also recommend getting away from the come bets: I understand that you make come bets for the 2 to 1 advantage and possibly for a hedge, but lets say your come bet starts working for a 4 or 10. And then you play max odds. Then a 10 dollar come bet with 30 odds pays 70 dollars. If you commit the same 40 dollars and buy the 4 or 10, it pays 78 after the vig. I'll take the extra 8 dollars. Also consider the fact that you didn't have to hit the same number twice to get payed off, and you wont have a 10 dollar flat bet working on the come out.

    If your come bet starts working for a 5 of 9. And then you take max odds. Then you have a 10 dollar flat with 40 odds which pays 70, or you can just make a 50 dollar place bet which pays 70 and then you dont have to worry about having a ten dollar cushion because of the 10 dollar flat working on the come out. You can actually buy the 5 and 9 for that amount and make 73 dollars even after the vig. Not a lot of people buy the 5 and 9, but if you are going to bet, why not get the most for your investment.

    In summary, i guess its obvious that i favor place bets. Like i said, they are versatile and allow the player a lot of control. I feel they are where the real money is to be made on the table.
     
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  3. mt11

    mt11 Member

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    Thanks for the input Lucky. The reason I do not play the pass on a 4, 5, 9 or 10 is I like to have the 6 and 8 working. Taking your place bets suggestion into account, do you think this plan is acceptable?

    Wait for the point to be established. If the point is not a 6 or 8, make place bets of X units on the 6 and 8.
    - How many units should I be placing?

    If the point is a 6 or 8, make a two unit pass bet with full odds behind.

    Or are you saying scrap the pass line bet altogether, and only place? I suppose in that case I would place the 6 and 8 on every point. I should also point out that I would be working with a limited bankroll. I plan on bringing $200 with me, and betting in $5 units. Placing $70 per number would wipe me out quickly during a cold roll.
     
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  4. lucky4688, Jan 24, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    mt11,

    Sorry about getting long winded in the last post, its just sometimes easier to understand when the math is right their in front of you.

    Having the six and 8 working for you at all times is a great idea. They are the next most common numbers thrown other than the 7.

    Really the point should not effect what numbers you bet and how you bet them. Their is no rule that says the point has to even be played at all. So if the point is a 4, 5, 9, or 10, and you want to make a place bet on the point, that is fine. However, you can choose to not bet the point at all, and just place the commonly thrown numbers. I understand that if the point is a 4, 5, 9, or 10, that you play the come in order to try and get the 6 and 8 working. But you can just place the 6 and 8 and then they are working for you right away.

    So lets say the point becomes a 4 or 10. Well those numbers aren't thrown as much as the 5, 6, 8, or 9. So my personal opinion, because you are working with a 200 dollar bankroll, is to not play the 4 and 10 right away. I like the fact that you understand the bankroll you are working with and do not want to bet too aggressive. You are right in thinking that you will get wiped out fast if you bet above and beyond what your bankroll will support. Unless you catch a very lengthy roll, you wont be at the table long at all.

    Use the theory that 1 in every 10 shooters is going to have a decent shake. You take your average bet and multiply it by 10. Thats why it is very important to know what strategy you want to use, and be consistent with it at all times. So assuming a 10 dollar table right. You decide you are going to place the 6 and 8 for 12 dollars a piece. Thats an average investment of 24 dollars a shooter. So in theory you should bring 240 or more dollars to the table. Or using a 5 dollar table. If you decide you are going to place the entire inside for 22 dollars. Than multiplying by 10 would give you a 220 dollar minimum to bring to the table.

    So here is what i will suggest as far as a strategy of play. It should work well for you and your bankroll:

    Definately scrap the pass line idea all together. Unless you are the shooter obviously. Their is a point in time where making a flat bet with odds will pay more than place bets, however with your bankroll you are most likely lot going to be starting your betting at those high amounts anyways. 100x odds tables allows for this more commonly than 3x 4x 5x odds tables. So if you are at a 3x 4x 5x odds table, i would never bet the pass or commit my money to an even money wager like the pass or come.
    Wait until the point is established. No matter what the point is. I would do one of two things.

    Place the inside for 22 dollars right away. Assuming you are on a five dollar table and want to make five dollar bets. That way you have the entire inside working for you. I would take the first three hits as same bet. That would be 7 dollars, 7, and then another 7. Which gives you 21 of your 22 dollar investment back. Once, you have taken three hits, you are almost at even. Every hit after that, i would press my bets. You are playing with the houses money at this time and it is time to press and take advantage. The downfall of making 5 dollar bets, is that the first press is always a full press. A good amount of numbers need to be thrown in order to start profiting a significant amount. However, i do not know what your win goal would be, or how conservative you want to be with your bets. You may want to press a couple times and then remove your bets all together. Because i feel 5 dollar bets are limiting, here is my second option for you.

    Wait until the point is established, and then place the 6 and 8 for 12 dollars a piece. Each hit with pay you 14 dollars. So take the first hit as same bet. Every hit after that, press the number hit. If you want to be more conservative, take the first two hits as same bet, and then press. Once you start profiting a little, and definately once you have your initial investment back, i would get on the 5 and 9 as soon as possible. They pay out better than the 6 and 8.

    For both of these suggestions, getting on the 4 and 10 is going to be at your discretion. I would only bet the 4 and 10 if i was profiting well and the 4 or 10 is being thrown.

    So i guess in summary, i say scrap the pass line, and im also suggesting to scrap the come bets. I think you will see bigger profits and more flexibility to do what you want with your money at the table. I forgot something else, I would also hedge my pass line wagers with an any craps bet of two dollars. That is if your pass line wager is 10 dollars. I would always play minimum pass line bet and take odds. No need to commit more money to even money if you dont have to. Hope this all made sense. If not im open to questions comments concerns. Good luck
     
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  5. idoc

    idoc Member

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    mt11,

    I am gonna make this real simple.

    With a $200 bank roll place the 6 and 8 for $12 each after the come out. You are risking $24 to win $14 if it hits. Consider a progressive betting strategy or stay at $12 each. THEN COME DOWN after 4 or 5 rolls and start all over on the next come out.

    Good Luck.
     
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  6. lucky4688, Jan 26, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    mt11,

    Idoc is recommending coming down on your place bets after 4 or 5 rolls. Their isn't anything wrong with playing that way, but if you already have your initial investment back, why not press and make more money. Here is a quick pressing chart which shows why i don't agree with removing bets if you are already even.

    hit bet pay take tot. take hit bet pay take tot. take
    1 12 14 14 14 1 12 14 14 14
    2 12 14 8 22 2 12 14 14 28
    3 18 21 9 31 3 12 14 14 42
    4 30 35 23 54 4 12 14 14 56
    5 42 49 31 85 5 12 14 14 70
    6 60 70 40 125 bets removed 24 94
    7 90 105 45 170

    The chart to the left is what i had said about taking first hit as same bet and then press every hit after that. In two hits you pretty much have your initial investment back. Getting that initial investment back is the number one priority. After that, it shows approx. a 50% press. Moderately aggressive but still has a better payout that idocs. Hits 2 through 4 are tough and are slightly aggressive, but thats how you can get to the real payouts. Once you hit a 30 dollar six or eight the payouts are significantly better, even with a press. I agree with a progressive pressing system, and the chart on the left is what i would recommend. Remember you can still remove your bets at any time. Simple or not, never not press, if you remove your bets after you started pressing your return is more than if you didn't press your bets. I've always been skeptical of removing bets. Especially if i'm staying up for 4 or 5 rolls, and not just removing after the first payout. If i have my intial investment plus some back already, for me i'm pressing and making good money. You dont want to be that person at the table who won 100 dollars when everyone else won 1000 after a hot roll. And trust me that will happen one day if you don't consider a good pressing system. Good luck
     
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  7. idoc

    idoc Member

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    mt11, pressing your bets is a good strategy. In fact, that's how I play. But for a novice player with a limited bank roll a conservative approach is the better way to play. You may not get the big pay off and you may miss out on that monster roll. But with a conservative approach you should be able to play a longer session and learn the game better. And, you may even win some.
     
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  8. lucky4688, Jan 27, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    mt11,

    Whether you are a new player or not. Im always going to give you advice that i practice myself. Sure the game is somewhat complex and may be difficult to pick up on for a new player. However, this forum is where new players go to get the best advice on how to play. I feel i gave you the best advice and don't recommend setting aside a better way to play for an inferior method because of being a "novice".

    I agree a new player should be conservative. The conservative approach is taking hits as same bet until your initial investment is back in the rail. After that i feel the strategy and pressing system i showed you is the one to follow. The math proves it in my personal opinion.

    Placing the six and 8 for 12 dollars each fits your bankroll. It is not super aggressive nor is it above and beyond what your bankroll will support. Remember to get your initial investment back before you press and you should log some decent table time.

    The best bet is the educated bet.
     
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  9. filthysanches, Jan 27, 2010

    filthysanches

    filthysanches Member

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    i wasnt about to read all of that , so if this has been covered in all those novels i apologize.
    A good method to betting with a limited bank roll that seems to work well for me is the five
    count method google it, it's worth a look see.
     
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  10. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 28, 2010

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Since I'm going to respond to two posts you will have to forgive my Usenet format.

    lucky4688 wrote:
    Placing the six and 8 for 12 dollars each fits your bankroll.

    John Patrick took a lot of flak during his all-too-short stay on rec.gambling.craps primarily because he touted his THEORIES and METHODS (his capitalization) as the cat's meow and called everyone who didn't use them a dope. Well, that's as may be, but when it comes to conservative strategies, which I also recommend to raw recruits, you're hard pressed to find better than his. The one that comes to mind has been called the Manhattan Progression because, in units, it starts out 2-1-2, which is the area code for that NYC borough. (It is actually a regression followed by a winning progression.) Applied to this case, place 6 and 8 for $12 each. After the first hit, which pays $14, regress both bets to $6. You now have $12 total at risk and are therefore guaranteed a $2 profit for the series after only one hit. As each number rolls you press one unit on that number only so that you never have more on the table than you have put in your rack for a series. With this approach you need only one hit to come out ahead on a shooter, and you are in to win on the big hand.

    filthysanches wrote:
    A good method to betting with a limited bank roll that seems to work well for me is the five count method google it, it’s worth a look see.

    Let me save you the trouble. The count starts at 0 when a new shooter is coming out and stays at 0 until that shooter establishes his/her first point. That and the next three rolls count as 1, 2, 3, and 4. To complete the count at 5 the shooter must then throw any point number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10). You then start betting.

    The assumption of this method is that some shooters are better than others. Whether these "rhythmic rollers" are consciously influencing the dice, unconsciously influencing the dice, receiving supernatural assistance, standing in a vortex of positive variance, or whatever is irrelevant. The five count assumes they exist in the here and now where you are and has you betting on them more often than on the other shooters, dubbed "random rollers". The method's base assumption is debatable, but even if it is invalid the method keeps you out of action, but occupied, while the count is in progress and thereby has you betting less per unit of time, which lowers your exposure to the house advantage.
     
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  11. lucky4688, Jan 28, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    midnight,

    Yeah its conservative. The only benefit to the regression progression method is that the first hit allows you a profit. After the first three hits however, my approach yields a tremendously bigger profit. The first hit shows a profit margin of 8 dollars, then 5 dollars, and then 4 dollars compared to my method. After that my method shows a profit margin of 4 dollars, 13 dollars and 24 dollars. It just keeps going up from their. And if the bets do get removed, the difference is huge. I understand that it is nice to hit one bet and then be even. If just a couple one numbers sevens break the sessions for someone, then their is probably a bigger issue. I would much rather not regress and suffer through the first couple hits with only a 4 dollar difference, so that i can profit tremendously after that. The regression sets you back significantly.

    hit bet pay take tot. tak hit bet pay take tot. take
    1 12 14 14 14 1 12 14 14 26
    2 12 14 8 22 2 6 7 1 27
    3 18 21 9 31 3 12 14 8 35
    4 30 35 23 54 4 18 21 15 50
    5 42 49 31 85 5 24 28 22 72
    6 60 70 40 125 6 30 35 29 101
    7 90 105 45 170 7 36 42 36 137
    8 150 175 85 255 8 42 49 43 180
    9 240 280 160 415 9 48 56 50 230


    I just dont see the benefits outweighing the negatives to patrick's ultimate conservative approach. Even as a new player i would never use the regression. Maybe i'm missing something midnight?
     
    #11
  12. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 28, 2010

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Forgive my Usenet format for quoting, but I think it makes it more clear to which part of your post my remarks refer.

    lucky4688 wrote:
    The only benefit to the regression progression method is that the first hit allows you a profit. After the first three hits however, my approach yields a tremendously bigger profit. The first hit shows a profit margin of 8 dollars, then 5 dollars, and then 4 dollars compared to my method. After that my method shows a profit margin of 4 dollars, 13 dollars and 24 dollars. It just keeps going up from their. And if the bets do get removed, the difference is huge. I understand that it is nice to hit one bet and then be even. If just a couple one numbers sevens break the sessions for someone, then their is probably a bigger issue. I would much rather not regress and suffer through the first couple hits with only a 4 dollar difference, so that i can profit tremendously after that. The regression sets you back significantly.

    First, I would note that you are charting a bet on a single number only rather than both 6 and 8 as we were discussing previously. Second, it is of more interest IMHO to see how much you have made in a series if you were to lose the bet you are making, so I have restated your tables. (I have also taken the liberty of using the progression I actually use, but without the regression.)

    hit bet pay net hit bet pay net
    1 12 14 -12 1 12 14 -12
    2 12 14 0 2 6 7 +8
    3 18 21 +10 3 12 14 +9
    4 30 35 +19 4 18 21 +17
    5 42 49 +42 5 24 28 +32
    6 60 70 +73 6 30 35 +54
    7 90 105 +113 7 30 35 +89
    8 150 175 +158 8 60 70 +94
    9 240 280 +243 9 60 70 +164

    To explain what I have done look at the fifth hit line, the one where you bet $42. I figure the "net" column as the sum of the pays for hits 1-4 less the bet in line 5.
    14 + 14 + 21 + 35 - 42 = 42
    So after 4 hits you are guaranteed a profit of $42. That is also the number of hits you need to outperform my progression to any significant degree. Of course the difference between the two methods increases dramatically after that, as would be expected because your progression is more aggressive.

    lucky4688 also wrote:
    I just dont see the benefits outweighing the negatives to patrick’s ultimate conservative approach. Even as a new player i would never use the regression. Maybe i’m missing something midnight?

    What you're missing, if anything, is that there are different strokes for different folks. Craps neophytes are typically amazed at how quickly $20 evaporates. Add to this their ignorance of what it was they were betting on and you have a very negative experience. My suggestion of the Manhattan Progression was aimed at giving a novice some table time with a chance to show a profit. YMMV
     
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  13. filthysanches, Jan 29, 2010

    filthysanches

    filthysanches Member

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    The Midnight Skulker,
    actually we bring out the pitboss voodoo dolls and cast chicken bones under the table, before
    we throw making the dice hop in such a way that apeases the God we commonly refer to as "Little Joe".
    but in reality your comment on the 5count method is a little off base. Just because it comes from
    rhythm rollers dosnt require you to disregard it as a flawed system, cause in reality, however you may
    shoot has no actuall influence on the way the 5 count works”” within reason, you actuallly have to keep
    the dice on the table, that is the important part. The 5 count does function as you explained, but not for
    the reason you say. The 5 count works on the idea that in principle dice will land on a seven after 6 rolls,
    a statistical consistancy random rolling or witch craftery aside. this maximizes betting benefits by taking
    advantage of this fact. finish your count bet a come, the next roll has a good chance of being a 7 statistically
    you win, if not a seven then you have a number with odds and your betting normal. All I can say is I have bet
    this way many times with some success, which is why discrediting it because of you skeptic bias on controlled
    shootersis not fair if 1: you dont know what your talking about and 2: it could potentially help someone rollin
    on a budget

    Praise Little Joe
    -filthy
     
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  14. lucky4688, Jan 29, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    midnight,

    Yes you are right. I was charting a one number comparison. I don't think that it really makes a difference. I showed a 26 dollar tot. take after the first hit, to reference your 12 dollar regression. Whether or not the chart is said to be a 6 or an 8, either way the first hit pays the same amount. Also, after the 12 dollar regression it is going to leave you with 6 dollars on the six and 8 no matter what number is hit first. The second hit doesn't matter if its a 6 or 8 as well because its going to pay the same amount again, for both of our pressing charts. The third hit yes, thats where the monetary change happens, but your method was soley based on the fact that after one hit your even.

    I dont know what IMHO or YMMV mean?

    Also, i'm trying to figure out what you charts mean. I just couldn't figure out how you came up with some of the numbers. Maybe if you have a different way of explaining it. Sorry, i just dont understand what your getting at. I understand that 14+ 14 + 21 + 35 - 42 = 42, but i dont understand its relavance. Those numbers aren't what i'm actually putting in the rail. Also, your net column, i can't figure out how you got any of those numbers. And yes, i suppose my method is more aggressive, but more aggressive or not, the whole goal is to profit the most money on each roll. If you have a progression system and i have a progression system, if mine is making more money per hit, then i don't see what their is to debate. And if i wind up with more money on the layout at any one time, even better because if its removed, then im profiting that much more.

    "different strokes for different folks", yep you are right, my method of play isn't exactly the best method of play for everyone. I don't want to seem like i am shoving my way down anyones throat. If thats the way this seems, then i apologize. I just believe that the math doesn't lie and if their is a more profitable way of doing something, then i want to share it.

    If you dont mind, try to explain what your charts mean in a different way, cuz im curious as to what you are getting at.
     
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  15. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 29, 2010

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Let me address filthysanches first. My stance on dice control (aka rhythmic rolling, aka precision shooting, aka DI, and probably a lot of other names) is that the sheer volume of anecdotal evidence suggests that there are shooters who can do it. I myself attempt to influence the dice, but all I can claim is that sometimes the magic works and sometimes it doesn't. To my knowledge there is no scientifically acceptable evidence that anyone is beating the game. I guess that makes me an agnostic; I'm not convinced that it is happening, but I'm not saying it isn't.

    As for the 5-count, I use it. I was merely pointing out that its main purpose is to identify "good" shooters, and there may not be any. You will note that I sort of recommended using the method because it does reduce one's exposure to the house advantage (while the count is in progress) which in turn is expected to prolong playing time on a given bankroll.

    As for the 7 appearing one out of six times, well, that's a different topic. All I have room for in this post is that in a game of random and independent trials, which craps is, the probability of an event occurring is always the same regardless of the results of previous trials. Big Red has one chance in six of showing its head on each an every roll. To claim it is more probable to appear after five non-seven rolls is the Gambler's Fallacy.

    -----

    Next is lucky4688. As before what I am responding to is in italics.

    I was charting a one number comparison. I don’t think that it really makes a difference.

    It does and doesn't. For a single number there is no reason to regress since one can lock in a profit merely by making the same bet. With $12 on both numbers a regression is necessary to lock up a profit after only one hit.

    I showed a 26 dollar tot. take after the first hit, to reference your 12 dollar regression. Whether or not the chart is said to be a 6 or an 8, either way the first hit pays the same amount. Also, after the 12 dollar regression it is going to leave you with 6 dollars on the six and 8 no matter what number is hit first. The second hit doesn’t matter if its a 6 or 8 as well because its going to pay the same amount again, for both of our pressing charts. The third hit yes, thats where the monetary change happens, but your method was soley based on the fact that after one hit your even.

    Yes, the Manhattan Progression is designed to lock up a profit after only one hit while still making a bundle on a big hand. I could not run a comparison of your progression to the Manhattan because you did indicate what your total bet was and how it was divided between 6 and 8 (though I would assume you divided it evenly regardless of what number hit). The progression I suggested would look like this.

    hit bet how divided pay net
    1 24 evenly 14 -24
    2 12 evenly 7 +2
    3 18 +6 on # hit 10.5 +3
    4 24 +6 on # hit 14 +7.5

    After this it gets messy. (BTW for hit 3 pay I used an average of the same number hitting as in 2 for $14 and the other number hitting for $7. Similarly for hit 4 pay I used an average of the same number hitting as in 2 and 3 for $21 and the other number hitting for $7.)

    I dont know what IMHO or YMMV mean?

    Sorry. I've been posting to Usenet for around 15 years and to this forum for maybe 15 hours.
    IMHO = In my humble opinion
    YMMV = Your mileage may vary
    BTW = By the way

    Also, i’m trying to figure out what you charts mean. I just couldn’t figure out how you came up with some of the numbers. Maybe if you have a different way of explaining it. Sorry, i just dont understand what your getting at. I understand that 14+ 14 + 21 + 35 - 42 = 42, but i dont understand its relavance.

    The "bet" column shows how much you are betting, so on hit 1 of the original charts you are betting $12 (on either 6 or 8). The "pay" column shows how much you will win for that hit, namely $14. The net column shows your profit or loss for the series if you lose that bet, so if you lose the first bet you are down $12 for the series. For subsequent rows this net amount is the sum of the "pays" for the previous rows less the "bet" amount for that row.

    Those numbers aren’t what i’m actually putting in the rail.

    The "net" shows how much the money in your rail as increased or decreased if you did not get hit #N. In the example calculation, you make $42 when you get exactly 4 hits.

    ... i suppose my method is more aggressive, but more aggressive or not, the whole goal is to profit the most money on each roll.

    No, your whole goal is to profit the most money on each roll. Other players may attach more importance to playing time.

    If you have a progression system and i have a progression system, if mine is making more money per hit, then i don’t see what their is to debate.

    If your system nets more per hit than mine then I would have to admit that it is superior. It does not, however. Your system goes for the gusto, accepting more frequent but small losses, while the Manhattan Progression losses less often while sacrificing some of the profits that could have been made on a hot shoot.

    And if i wind up with more money on the layout at any one time, even better because if its removed, then im profiting that much more.

    After some number of hits, yes, but not at the beginning of a series.

    ... my method of play isn’t exactly the best method of play for everyone. I don’t want to seem like i am shoving my way down anyones throat. If thats the way this seems, then i apologize.

    I did not get that impression. My point is that everyone has to decide how to distribute the frequency and magnitude of wins and losses for him/herself. Your progression works for you and may work for others, but not necessarily for all others.
     
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  16. lucky4688, Jan 29, 2010

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    midnight,

    "Yes, the Manhattan Progression is designed to lock up a profit after only one hit while still making a bundle on a big hand. "

    I suppose this is the main thing that i was talking about. I agree with the fact that you lock a profit after one hit with your progression. But what i was trying to show was that yes, it is a profit, however it is not significant enough to lose such large amounts of money after the 3rd hit. My chart shows me at -2 after the second hit, with a press, and up 7 with a press at the third hit. I mentioned if you want to see (+) marks after the second hit, take the same bet again. But what i didn't like was the idea of single unit pressing. I just wanted to show a much better idea on how to make that bundle, after the initial investment was returned. Yours showing a profit at one hit, mine showing almost even at two hits. I suppose once again it is just my style of play, but thats not a substantial risk, compared to the risks your taking. And for the outcome and payout potential, i feel it is 100% worth doing. But like you stated, its my thing and not necessarily others. I guess i just like to profit more.

    "No, your whole goal is to profit the most money on each roll. Other players may attach more importance to playing time."--once again this is my personal opinion, but anyone who puts table time higher on the importance list than making the best bets and trying to find a better way to profit, than that person has their priorities all wrong. To me this makes no sense at all.

    Yes, compare my pressing chart to your method, and i have to hit more numbers than you, to get my initial investment back. After the third hit, my system nets significantly more money than yours on every hit. Some may let a couple dollars get in their way of a big payout, but i know what little losses i may suffer getting their, i will be rewarded ten fold.

    I understand where you got the numbers in your net column now. Thanks for taking the time to explain. I hate to say it, but i still don't understand the relevance to using that type of charting method. I've charted a lot of progressions and payouts and not once have i used that or seen it anywhere. This is obviously why i wasn't following and taking to it very well. The payout column is what the bet column pays out obviously, but what importance is that when i press and don't put that much money in the rail anyway. Using averages and getting half amounts. Sorry i still dont see what any of that matters.

    I just wanted to chart a progression comparison. Why worry about what happens if that bet is lost, the reason for charting the progression is because we are assuming the bet is won. And if the bet is lost at any time, we have already assumed we took our initial investment back in most cases, so whats the difference. I dont know midnight, you went over my head with the charting you used.


    hit bet pay take tot. take tot. take take pay bet hit
    1 12 14 14 14 26 14 14 12 1
    2 12 14 8 22 27 1 7 6 2
    3 18 21 9 31 35 8 14 12 3
    4 30 35 23 54 50 15 21 18 4
    5 42 49 31 85 72 22 28 24 5
    6 60 70 40 125 107 35 35 30 6
    7 90 105 45 170 112 5 35 30 7
    8 150 175 85 255 182 70 70 60 8
    9 240 280 160 415
    10 360

    Respectfully posted
     
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  17. dados

    dados Member

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    Newbie or any Do Pass player.
    CAREERWISE-THE DO PASS 6 & 8 Play has BROKE more crapshooters than ALL the other bets on a dice table COMBINED !
    The LARGEST HEADSTONES in the DICE BRICKWALL GRAVE YARD near Searchlight, Nevada IS THOSE OF THE DO PASS 6&8
    crapshooter.

    Many Dealers will say TO A NEW PLAYER -"you forgot your ODDS , they are FREE !

    First of all the FLAT bet must be made before ODDS pay ANYTHING-

    Mis-outs OCCUR about 5 times more often than does bucking a POINT , POINT ESTABLISHED , wait one roll before placing odds .
    It hurts when a point is bucked , but the pocket benefits(odds saved) on 5to1 mis-outs .

    There is a HUGE DIFFERENCE between a PROFESSIONAL DICE PLAYER(CAREER WINNERS)and a DEALER or EXPERIENCED dice player.(CAREER LOSERS).

    PROFESSIONAL DICE players use STOP LOSS moves and 100% winning hedge bets whe necessary to GET THE MONEY .
    www.diceprofession.com
    THERE is very few Professional Players around . most are BACKSIDE or WRONG bettors , here again to be successful on the backside you must know and USE the number ONE dont pass RULE-or Careerwise it will be FATAL
     
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  18. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 31, 2010

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I think I need to clarify my intent on this thread. It is not, I say again not to prove the Manhattan Progression is better than yours. Rather, I presented it to mt11 as an alternative to yours.

    When I belly up to a table I have with me a bag of tricks, as it were. If one method isn't working I pull out another. Each method exploits a particular sequence of events, and of course I'm hoping to match the method with the sequence that occurs. In order to do this I have to have more than one method in my bag. I was trying to give mt11, and anyone else who might not have thought about regressing bets, something to think about trying.

    "No, your whole goal is to profit the most money on each roll. Other players may attach more importance to playing time."--once again this is my personal opinion, but anyone who puts table time higher on the importance list than making the best bets and trying to find a better way to profit, than that person has their priorities all wrong. To me this makes no sense at all.

    With the possible exception of compulsive gamblers, every player wants to win. Unfortunately, being as we players are expected to lose we have to balance how frequently we win with how much we win with how much we are willing to lose when we don't win with how long we want to play. At the risk of seeming immodest, but to take advantage of something I've already written, I invite you to look at http://midnightskulker.casinocitytimes.com/articles/1453.html for a more complete answer.

    I understand where you got the numbers in your net column now. ... I hate to say it, but i still don't understand the relevance to using that type of charting method.

    My chart format shows how much a player will have won or lost at each stage of a progression assuming the player continues to bet (and progress) until a bet is lost. It shows, then, how many consecutive wins are needed to break even or show a profit, and how quickly (or slowly) that profit will grow as additional bets are won. I personally demand that a sequence show a profit after two wins in a row. OTOH (= "On The Other Hand") I saw a guy run a full five-level parlay on both Pass and one Come. Obviously he was willing to wait a while for his ship to come in, but it was a really nice ship when it showed up.

    Using averages and getting half amounts. Sorry i still dont see what any of that matters.

    The averages and half amounts were an attempt to use expected values instead of having to develop individually each scenario when both 6 and 8 were placed. As you stated, since both numbers pay 7:6 it doesn't matter which one hits the first time. And since the Manhattan regresses both numbers after the first hit on either it doesn't matter which one hits the second time. For the third hit, however, when only the number that hit is pressed, it does matter whether that number hits (for $14) or the other number hits (for $7). Since each of those conditions is equally likely I showed the average payoff (of $10.50) rather than make two branches of the table.
     
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  19. goatcabin, Feb 5, 2010

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Hey, Skulk! Alan Shank here.

    No matter how you "slice it and dice it", the overall expectation is ALWAYS edge * action, so the more you bet the higher the expected loss. If you could play millions and millions of sessions of "Manhattan" and the more aggressive method, and you graphed all the outcomes, the means of both graphs would be edge * action, so Manhattan would lose less. However, the shapes of the graphs would be quite different. Patrick's methods generally are aimed at getting more winning sessions, but smaller wins. An aggressive method is going to result in more losing sessions, but bigger wins.

    If you are betting a constant amount, never raising or lowering your bets, then the order of wins and losses doesn't matter - at the end of the day your net is (wins - losses) * bet amount. Whenever you start changing the amount of the bet, however, the order of the W's and L's becomes critical - you start "chasing a pattern".

    Those charts comparing the two methods for different numbers of consecutive hits leave out an important aspect: the various probabilities of each number of hits. The more hits you need to get ahead, the lower the probability of getting there. And, neither chart shows the result of zero hits, which takes up over half of the "probability space". To simplify, let's just talk about betting on one number, placing the six.

    hits prob. Manhattan progressive
    0 .545 -12 -12
    1 .2479 + 8 + 2
    2 .1148 + 9 +10
    3 .0512 +17 +25
    etc. etc.

    So, although it only takes 2 hits in a row for the progressive to be $1 ahead, and it pulls away from there, 79% of the time you never get there. You need to WEIGHT the numbers by their probabilities.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  20. diceman, Feb 23, 2010

    diceman

    diceman Member

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    I also play the Pass Line followed with two Come Bets. I never bet more then 2 x odds irregardless how hot the table is. Sure a lot of times the dealers say to me, if you've taken full odds you would have won a lot more. True, had I known the shooter would be a hot shooter at that point, I would have mortgaged my house. What I'm saying is Odds will kill you, never exceed 2 x odds I know they are called free odds They are not free, and are very costly. Ive been playing this way for quite some time now and winning in the thousands. By playing this way it puts you on the hot numbers being rolled. Normally all players play the 6 & 8 according to the odds of rolling numbers True, but the true odds are at the moment you are at the table . There hasn't been a set of sequence set yet as to what #'s are hot, what are not. Keeping in mind that theoretical probabilities are based on a long term of play. Another thing I don't do is play across or inside, that is a sure way of losing your bankroll pretty fast. The Come bet follows hot numbers. Also if a shooters sevens out on the second roll, yu win on the seven on your Come bet, granted, you lose on the pass line, not so much of a bad hit versus players who play, across, or inside. Think about it. As far as online casinos KEEP AWAY.
     
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