Varience and hot roll betting

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016.

  1. TDVegas, Sep 6, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Tomp....

    What are we talking here?
    8.5 SRR...off the fucking charts?

    Write your ticket?
    Island in the Sun type money?

    Are we talking complete bullshit or is the realm of probabilities enough to call possible or even remotely probable?

    I saw where Mustsng Sally also said absolutely "no way" on the Wov board.

    Brass tax (tacks), tomp....I assume with your offer of almost insurmountable odds, that replicating 8.5 ain't happening in a controlled demo?

    Complete, honest assessment (as you always do)....then I'll walk from this thread and trust your confidence on the matter.

    Quite honestly, Billy...you've employed the same name calling tactics here as you've employed on the Wov board and you were warned by the administrator to cut the shit. Here, you don't have the problem of being warned. Members have noted it, though and the irony is there. Different sandbox, same problem.

    "That said, the people opposing your contention are addressing what you are saying, without addressing you personally about it (so far). Vigorous debate can be frustrating and insulting by implication, but that implication is self-imposed by you; THEY are not making personal assaults on you. When you reply to them, you are not limiting yourself to debunking their contention or refuting their arguments; you are name-calling and being disparaging of those people for holding those opinions and making those arguments in opposition. Thus the warning."
     
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    Last edited: Sep 6, 2016
  2. twodicebilly, Sep 6, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    TDV


    One last reply because it is needed.

    I don't feel bad at all for calling your actions what
    I did, and on the WOV board I said Mathextremist was
    acting like a jerk.....

    You were and he was...... If I was out to dinner with a few
    people and one kept insulting another I was say hey your
    acting like a jerk..... itf it was even worse I could say your
    acting like an ass hole....

    If I was doing the same thing and my friends indicated
    that to me I would feel hey maybe I was out of line.

    You, Autoguy, Mrv and Mathextremist and to a lessor
    extent others all act the same. You insult, question, poke
    fun of misunderstand on purpose and on and on... and when
    I I question that...wow.... how dare some one reflect upon
    my actions.......

    Sorry bud, I did and I don't regret it for a second.

    What pisses you off is I understand your games, and
    I am willing to call you on it.

    tdb
     
    #242
  3. TDVegas, Sep 6, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    The administrator called YOU out on it!!

    You're having the same EXACT problems over there with doubt of your claims as you are having here. You lash out in name calling and get warned for it. I don't know, maybe they've chased you from that board. Seems a lot over there doubted your contentions...same as here. I found it ironic.

    Mustang Sally was particularly calling you out as were others....as the claims are not believable.
     
    #243
  4. Onautopilot, Sep 6, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Your actions speak volumes about who you are, an nothing about those you direct your name calling to!
     
    #244
  5. random_roller, Sep 6, 2016

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    TDB,

    What casino in Madison are you referring to that has craps? I might have an excuse to make a stop next time my wife & I travel to Wisconsin if there is a craps table in Madison.


    TDB SRR Capture.JPG


    I've been to Ho Chunk Madison several times over the years (not recently, however) and it was traditional Bingo & Class II Slots (high speed bingo). But improvements are coming, as noted on their website:


    Ho Chunk Madison Beer Capture.JPG
     
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    Last edited: Sep 6, 2016
  6. KokomoJoe4, Sep 6, 2016

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    I wouldn't take it even if it came with $500 with which to gamble.
     
    #246
    Onautopilot likes this.
  7. random_roller, Sep 6, 2016

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Have you ever sat through one of those time share sales pitches in exchange for a "free" stay at some hotel/resort?
     
    #247
  8. betwthelines, Sep 6, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    this is not correct.

    tdb was quite clear that his average of 12.33 was for three sessions only---the last 3 if i am not mistaken...not sayin' 12.33 isn't impressive, especially since come out naturals are not included but he was quite clear that his overall average going back quite some time, maybe 40,000 rolls is about 8.1 or maybe slightly more...

    since naturals are not included it is hard to say whether his results are better than random or not but he certainly claimed no average hand of over 12!

    exactly what it is he is claiming is difficult to determine from his posts but there is no need to mischaracterize what he is claiming...

    tom p
     
    #248
  9. betwthelines, Sep 6, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    well, my questions were sincere, yes, but i am afraid that i have nothing to offer you either...

    'pilot and tdv are DI skeptics is all...as am i and others on here, maybe most others...you are correct, they "can't do" but nor do they claim they can do...because you have formidable, insurmountable even, differences of opinion i think that you might be reading things into their posts that are not there...

    true, it seems they do not believe you "can" but i see nothing in their posts suggesting that they HOPE you can't...that is simply not there...

    but as for any ideas that would help you with your "skill", no, they have none...nor do i...betting strategies however are a different story...i can't help you much there myself either other than Tough Craps but 'pilot especially has been around the block and knows more schemes than just about anybody...tdv sticks to pretty much low ha bets...

    it can all be good.

    tom p
     
    #249
  10. Onautopilot, Sep 6, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Tom, if you notice, I said "at a specific casino", go back to his post #233 of this thread and read what he said. (The post is included in his quote reference, you have to click on it to read his response).

    Note what he said about consistency at Kechena Casino.

    No mischaracterizing, I don't think!
     
    #250
  11. twodicebilly, Sep 6, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    ps.... when I say the constant edge stuff has not worked
    I am talking about for me and others I know, I am not
    saying it has not worked for some one I don't know.
     
    #251
  12. hartzehn22, Sep 6, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    HHY- IMO, you don't need 40,000 rolls to establish your known advantage but if you've kept records as well as TDB says he has, the 40,000 rolls can't hurt his abilities to define what his advantage might be.

    Now from my own experiences of tossing. If I have say 1000 rolls that I have tracked of myself on a live casino craps table (this past month of August) and I'm keeping track of as many variables as I possibly can, I'm attempting to define my advantage based on my rolls and the variables that I've defined. Because I have certain signature number (s) that i'm predicting based on my my dice set and other variables, I will adjust my betting system for my rolls based on what I know is consistent for me and what is occurring at the table in real time. I'm always working off of real time rolls but I combine real time rolls with my signature number expectations. Do I always roll my signature numbers every single time. Of course not! But I endeavor to come as close to my "known advantage" as I can.

    But in all honestly, because I've been tracking my throws and my sets for so long, I know very quickly if what i'm tossing is appropriate or not. For me it is imperative that I am at the table with certain expectation based on my history of rolls. I typically let that lead my betting because I do believe that what I've rolled and tracked over the past 10 years is a good indicator of what I am capable of reproducing. It is that simple. Now, when bias dice are present and you know they exist, certain dice sets or styles of tosses are appropriate or not and you must adjust.

    Now after 40,000 rolls of tracking, I'm almost certain that TDB has a good idea of what he can and can't do when he is tossing the dice. That's just my personal opinion and it is based on my own experiences
     
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    Last edited: Sep 6, 2016
  13. betwthelines, Sep 6, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    ok. fair enough. from that post i can see how you "might" have arrived at your conclusion...however 2 things:

    in a different post he indicated a "long term" average of a little over 8 (possibly i am misunderstanding here but i understood that at the time to mean over his 40k rolls)...BUT MORE THAN THAT in the post you referenced (#233) his number at Kechena Casino. was the same "12.33" that he laid out for his three sessions there (he actually showed all the rolls)...coincidence? maybe but i don't think so...i believe those 3 sessions are the extent of his records there...now he did add, "I record every time I play there" suggesting more play than the three but, frankly, i don't think so...

    in any case tdb is not claiming 12.33 overall and while he might disagree, imo there is no way he will maintain that average at that "specific casino" with any decent amount of additional play...but he is a DI...they think that way...

    in my post just prior to this i scolded tdb a little for perhaps reading things that were highly negative into YOUR posts (&tdv's) advising that i did not see those things and that he should take care not to read into posts things that are not there...

    my advice to you is the same, is all

    tom p
     
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  14. HornHiYo, Sep 6, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    There is no craps table(s) in the Madison casino. Hasn't been since day one.
     
    #254
  15. random_roller, Sep 6, 2016

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    I was hopeful there might be a casino with a craps table I had overlooked while driving through that part of Wisconsin, but apparently that isn't the case.
     
    #255
  16. HornHiYo, Sep 6, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    Yeah. He may have an idea of how he rolls at the tables and then he may not if he goes by his SRR data. He would have to log It many many bad rolls before the impact would be seen in an average over 40k rolls.
    Then too it sounds like he lumps all sessions together and that further dilutes the value. A SRR of 9 at casino X and a SRR of 5 at casino Y gives an average SRR of 7. How is that beneficial in either casino X or Y?
    It seems SRRs would be a little more reliable when used to track tables seperately. Then too smaller books of rolls give recent results on a shooters performance.
    But don't tell him! He posted elsewhere he will play any way he wants to play and doesn't want anyone's advice.
    Kinda likes to put a 8.5 ounce sinker on a bobber capable of supporting only 6-ounces.
    Just saying....
     
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    Last edited: Sep 6, 2016
  17. twodicebilly, Sep 6, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    we call the Dells... Madison

    There is one in Madison that has only slots. the dells has couple of Tables

    tdb
     
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  18. twodicebilly, Sep 6, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    maybe I will just go throw them all away.... these guys have never seen my
    shot, or how I play or what adjustments I make and yet it is almost
    unbeleiveable.....they are experts on my play, and understand without seeing
    the records what they failed to measure.... who knew such expertise was
    available.
     
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  19. HornHiYo, Sep 6, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    Actually, the one near the Dells is in Baraboo.
    Madison is not close.
    Your casino references must be a characteristic of your fishing stories; using neighboring landings as a diversion to hide the 'ol fishing hole. Aye?
     
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  20. HornHiYo, Sep 6, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    You funny man.
     
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