Varience and hot roll betting

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016.

  1. tabletop123, Sep 4, 2016

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Good post, Twodice! This is what I have said all along..... That i CAN show consistent influence on my home table. There is no question about it!

    However, using the SAME toss on ANY foreign CASINO table might just end up as a Nut Clipper. My toss does NOT change, but table conditions do.

    This is why I NEVER. claim an advantage on any table other than my own!
     
    #201
  2. hartzehn22, Sep 4, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    OAP- I agree w/ all the above. Excellent post. It is not rocket science, rudimentary in fact but nonetheless tedious work that has to be calculated to establish your known advantage, if in fact one is to claim one.
     
    #202
  3. hartzehn22, Sep 4, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDB- I think you explained your determination of your SRR quite well. I think OAP and other naysayers don't understand the subtleties that DI'er's must take into account when dealing with different tables. This is what separates you from OAP and quite frankly from all other naysayers. You have to remember that TDV doesn't believe in dice influence so they don't have the brain matter in place to literal comprehend what you are comprehending and experiencing what you are experiencing. I not saying these people are less intelligent. All I'm saying is they have a different perspective and experience and their intake of information and their experiences with dice tossing are obviously different then people who know they can influence. OAP, I believe is a little more open to trying to understand the subtleties of the game and the more you hash out here on the forum may lead some naysayers to DI nirvana (lol) but I expect not many.
     
    #203
  4. hartzehn22, Sep 4, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    HHY- TDV will never show up for the shoot out. He's all smoke and mirrors.
     
    #204
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  5. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    #205
  6. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    I am damn lucky I can get anything I type show up here.

    tdb
     
    #206
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  7. HornHiYo, Sep 4, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    I think I get your point. Let's see:
    You are saying if TDV came to your house for a shoot out that your experience on your table with your dice in your environment would give you an edge over TDV and there is no question what so ever your SRR will be longer over 3000-rolls.

    If I were a betting man, and I am, I would put my money on your experience. But it wouldn't be much because I believe any calculated DI advantage based on SRR is tiny and fleeting and variance can eat it up quickly.

    My point from a fishing perspective is this: if you fished only one lake for many years you might become more of an an expert with each passing season. More likely you would get better results than a stranger fishing the lake for the first time.
    But if I took both you and the stranger to a new lake your past records and successful experiences from the one lake do not necessarily give you an edge over the stranger at the new lake.

    Likewise, if you met up with TDV at a table you've never played before it is possible your experience may not matter one bit.

    If you have ever played with others who are not considered DIs you know there are plenty of times when they had the good hands and you didn't.

    In this scenario I'd say there should be plenty of questions on whose SRR will be longer. If I were a betting man, and I am, I wouldn't bet one way or the other.
    But if I were at the table during the shoot out I would be betting right side hoping to catch a long hand and pressing my bets as the long hand developes
     
    #207
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  8. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    #208
  9. wonko33, Sep 4, 2016

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    I think you guys are typing like this is a typewriter, hitting return at the end of each line instead of just for a paragraph.... Old dogs, new tricks ;)
     
    #209
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  10. betwthelines, Sep 5, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    I AM SINCERELY TRYING TO UNDERSTAND

    i consider myself of average intelligence and am making a sincere attempt to understand what tdb is saying about what his 40k rolls show but more importantly what they mean in terms of a confidence level...

    obviously his confidence level is high...i am trying to get at why, specifically, what is it that his 40k rolls--yes, a quite healthy, trustworthy sample--shows him that leads to this confidence level...frankly his explanation may be "simple" to the DI cognoscenti but it remains quite confusing to this DI skeptic who is VIRTUALLY, COMPLETELY IGNORANT of the ways, the actual details and techniques of DI...what i do know about that is primarily from osmosis on this forum when mental ignoring (ignorance) slips a bit (an exception is davey's delusions which i read with some interest, his brevity a plus too...also while i hate to admit it, he actually is correct: i do have trouble with those low & outside hard sliders...lol)...

    as alluded to, this ignorance is willful since i could not be less interested in the details but am quite interested in the results...this ignorance DOES NOT DISQUALIFY ME FROM WEIGHING IN ON THE SUBJECT however and especially when posted on a public forum...i maintain that craps is a game of pure luck...a very high percentage, if not all, of DI proponents maintain that there is skill involved and it is a fair question to ask what makes them think so.

    casinos do not think so.
    o, sure, there are many a superstitious crew that might think so but they certainly have a responsibility too to keep the rolls legitimate, to maintain behaviors at least minimally acceptable to civil society & to keep the game moving along...

    i make no claims other than after a lifetime of betting on over a million random rolls (perceiving NONE otherwise) my results conform to mathematical expectations...DIers OTOH DO make claims of skill or effectiveness that the results are better than or other than random...

    FURTHER
    --- and this is where the rest of us especially come in --- the vast majority of DI proponents (on here) seem to have a need to convince others of this efficacy and for anyone who disagrees the only counter for some is to cast aspersions on the content of the dissenters' character...this being a public forum the same slurs are cast the other way by DI skeptics...any "progress" in the debate is thereby constrained...

    ...my post number 187 on this thread was not replied to directly but i have gleaned partial answers from some of the other posts here such that i need to let those questions go...

    but where i am REALLY CONFUSED and genuinely hope that someone can straighten me out is in this SRR vs. "hand" thing (the Tough Craps player has his own, idiosyncratic definition for "hand" but we can set that aside for the purposes here)...tdb did explain his criteria for a "hand", which does differ from the common understanding, but that is perfectly OK...and 'pilot went on to explain a possible rationale behind tdb's criteria...i have problems with those criteria but do "get it" and, again, as long as there seems to be some agreement about it that is sufficient for the purposes here & we can go with it...

    ok, first thing i need to state what my understanding has been of "SRR"...this is "sevens to rolls ratio"...thus SRR has a mathematical expectation of 6...

    however i believe that tdb has written---and please, please, please, correct me if i am wrong here about what tdb has written---at least twice that his "SRR is between 8.1 - 8.4" or similarly paraphrased, over the course of his 40k rolls...

    IF we are using my understanding of SRR,THIS HAS TO BE ONE OF FIVE THINGS
    1. a "typo" or mis-type
    2. he really meant "hands" and not SRR
    3. the SRR definition is different than mine
    4. the dice are so biased as to be beyond ridiculous
    5. it is so far removed from reality as to be virtually impossible
    yet, again unless i am mistaken, tdb has written this at least twice...now if i were a betting person, i would offer very long odds that no one, not the most skilled DI in the world could maintain an SRR of even 7 over the course of 3,000 rolls...if all agreed on the fairness of the dice---and personally fucking monopoly dice straight out of a new box would satisfy me---i would put up $500 to anyone's $10 that no one can do an SRR of 7...ever...3,000 rolls...further as long as it is stated before the roll(s), you can "count" any damn 3000 rolls you want! if you don't want to start counting until a point is established, fine...if the ambient humidity is more than 70% and you don't want rolls to count in that case, fine...if you are feeling "off" or feel your skills are not quite right and don't want to count those rolls, fine...you pick ahead of time any damn 3000 rolls you want...an SRR of 7?? 3000 rolls??...No Way...$500 to your $10...5,000 rolls?? $1000 to your $10...

    so basically that is where my confusion lies...SRR needs clarification because i can assure you that tdb's ---again by the SRR definition above--- ain't no 8.1

    any genuine clarification, without name-calling if possible, would be appreciated...

    tom p
    ps and please, please do not counter with my bet proposal is "not realistic" OF COURSE it's not realistic! ain't gonna happen...i know that...both you and i know it ain't gonna happen.. but you and i all also know that actual iteration of the proposal is NOT THE POINT...the point is no one can do an SRR of 7 with fair dice and legal rolls over 3000 rolls...period.



     
    #210
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  11. Onautopilot, Sep 5, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Good luck!
     
    #211
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  12. Onautopilot, Sep 5, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    It requires several aspects. First, you need to know how to analyze the data. Second, you need to understand the analysis. The first deals with statistics, the second with probabilities.

    If the data is valid, and the analysis is done correctly, only then can one draw conclusions that are also valid.
     
    #212
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  13. twodicebilly, Sep 5, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    wonko you got the old part right....

    And tired, an old dry well showed up in the yard of one of my rental properties
    so I had to find out how large it was to fill it... got that done and my doctor of
    many years has been after me to drink more water.

    So his orders were a gallon a day for a week and yesterday was my first day
    and I spent most of the evening in the bath room getting rid of the frickin
    gallon instead of sleeping. Now my son in law wants to play 18 holes
    today. He is from Slovenia so never had a chance to play golf until he got
    here and had been taking lessons and last year he finally beat me
    so now he wants to rub it in. Actually that was a bad reflection on the golf
    lessons because I am awful at it.

    So at any rate, hitting the return key something I will put on the list.

    tdb
     
    #213
  14. betwthelines, Sep 5, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    thank you...same to you...

    seems weird to ask this but by "good luck" do you mean like in general? if so, see above...

    or, as i suspect, do you mean "good luck" with getting straight answers with respect to my post that you quoted? if so, again, thank you...but i (too?) have, i do think, quite realistic expectations about that, viz low ones.

    tom p
     
    #214
  15. Onautopilot, Sep 5, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    "Good luck" in two respects, first in getting a straight answer, second, in getting it without name calling. :)
     
    #215
  16. twodicebilly, Sep 5, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    tabletop


    Correct, with work, anyone can get an advantage on their table.
    However in the real world of casino play that may or may not mean a thing.

    As a player you wont know that unless you record the results so you
    can compare your table against the casino, and different casino
    tables against each other in terms of your results.



    I have been more than clear on what I do and why I do it, I am done trying
    to explain it to the kids.

    twodicebilly


















     
    #216
  17. betwthelines, Sep 5, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    you are not the judge on whether you have been "more than clear" in your explications

    readers are the judge of that...if some are confused by it, they are confused...for whatever reason, absolutely it might be stupidity, they are confused but if you have been "more than clear", it suggests that you would get through to the slower among us...if some are confused, they are confused ...period. in that case clarity has not happened and you cannot assert with any credibility that it has

    you have refused to answer SIMPLE questions that require little or no "clarity" at all such as how many of your vaunted 40k rolls have been 7s...now you may not know the answer or it would require more effort to find out than you are willing to put into it, which is perfectly fine and anyone should understand that but you should at least have the adult courtesy to state so or provide the answer instead of crickets...it was not a trick question, requiring only a one word or one number answer...

    but, no, instead you want to take your ball and go home, suggesting that it is you yourself who is confused as to who are the "kids" and who are the adults...

    tom p
     
    #217
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  18. TDVegas, Sep 5, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I would assume that when a person is discussing their SRR..It is being done under the generally accepted terminology of how that is calculated...

    Much like when a golfer discusses his fairway "hits" percentages or "greens" percentages....this is done under a STANDARD format (so all can understand and compare under one "umbrella")

    It is not based under some personalized definition. By all means anyone can track their data as they wish, but if it's going to be discussed as a basis for making claims or a contrast and compare against others...it should be done under generally accepted terminology definitions.

    It sounds like one cannot just claim "My SRR is...."
    without first quantifying how that is done...
    It sounds like one MUST first offer their definition or interpretation...then say "My SRR is...."

    That's really the only way to have a common sense discussion/debate on the subject of SRR.
     
    #218
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2016
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  19. TDVegas, Sep 5, 2016

    TDVegas

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    I don't think it can be because he does refer to randies as having a SRR of 6. How can you claim a randie is going to be SRR of 6 (standard definition), but then use a different set of criteria (roll data) to determine SRR of 8.4-5 for yourself?
     
    #219
  20. betwthelines, Sep 5, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    well, true, he hasn't been real clear but it has to be a claim using a different criteria or a mix-up in terminology or something like that...he cannot seriously be claiming an SRR of 8 over 40k rolls by the common understanding of SRR...

    over that many rolls using a standard SRR of 8 is only "possible" theoretically in the wild, wild west of probability mathematics...in the real world of two fair dice (monopoly, craps, pig, backgammon etc etc etc) such an SRR is virtually impossible...almost certainly has not been done ever on planet earth in any series of 40k rolls...hell it is not likely doable even unfairly by, for example, a skilled army blanket roller such as the old salt out on the ship at sea or the devious corporal in some army bivouac!...lol...

    tom p
    -g. geist: be careful...i wouldn't be as certain about that last
    --tom p: yah...you're right...
    ---g. geist:
    ----tom p: but i would still be tempted to lay some long odds against it
    -----g. geist: yah
    ------tom p: the ol' salt'd be shooting himself in the foot to roll out 'n srr of 8, don't you think?
    -------g. geist: yah
     
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