Varience and hot roll betting

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016.

  1. twodicebilly, Sep 3, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    See that's it in a nutshell..... TDV and Autoguy don't give a shit. like I said they are like smokers
    in a casino. they make everyone around them miserable and then say ...why don't you just ignor us???

    There are two reasons why TDV and Autoguy are like they are.


    1... they can be

    2....if they were decent and added anything to any conversation they would add
    nothing. The only way they get noticed is to act like jerks.

    They have lots of conversations here I don't respond to because it does not have
    anything to do with what I do.... but when they attack any person that works on their
    shot, they are actually attacking us all.

    tdb
     
    #181
  2. Onautopilot, Sep 3, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    How was your fishing trip with the grandson? I also went fishing today, caught a few nice bass, gave 'em a kiss and sent 'em back to grow larger.
     
    #182
  3. TDVegas, Sep 3, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    In here, you CAN and DO have the ability to remove a "smoker". In the casino you can't do that.

    It is NOTHING like a smoker.
     
    #183
  4. Onautopilot, Sep 3, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Billy, actually, I was trying to help you. It appeared that you might not be using your data in the best method. I was suggesting that you try a different calculation, and gave you examples of it.

    But if you are happy with the information you gain by calculating it your way, o.k.
     
    #184
  5. hartzehn22, Sep 3, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- smokers are annoying here on this forum and in the casino!
     
    #185
  6. TDVegas, Sep 3, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    As I stated in the other thread..for someone who is annoyed by my postings....you sure seem to like to respond to them.

    Respond as you like...just noting.
     
    #186
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  7. betwthelines, Sep 3, 2016

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    tdb,
    my intention is not to get in the middle of your pissing match with 'pilot and tdv (ok, ok so i am a liar, lol) but i do have 3 honest, genuine, no-agenda questions:
    tdb
    how many of these 40k were 7s?
    according to the wov site the average hand is 8.53 (8.5255 to be precise) rolls so 'pilot is accurate at least in this...

    thus your "8.1-8.4" is certainly within the standard deviation of random, though in fact slightly less than the random average...HOWEVER you also suggest that your analysis does NOT include some rolls...while this seems rather weird to me, i am wondering if in your statistical analysis do you have an accurate record of the average length of a hand that includes all rolls? (and if i am misunderstanding here & your 8.1-8.4 does in fact include all rolls, simply state that and we are good)...

    but my main question is, did you have a consistent objective over the course of these 40k rolls (7 avoidance, more 6s or 8s etc)?...and if so, how did those results turn out?...now of course if you had varying objectives over the course of this lengthy trial that would make your answer a bit more complicated and i would indeed understand if in fact you have no definitive or precise answer...

    other than these genuine questions though i do have one declarative point...if you are making rolls without stated objective(s) before the fact, then any declared results would be more than suspect...i can take any 3,000 rolls or any 40,000 rolls and be a HUGE WINNER if i am allowed to apply my criteria (ie a large number of possible bets, which btw would all be hop bets, lol) with an analysis after the fact...as i have stated many times, the bastard, sunzabitchin', asshole casinos make you bet before the roll...

    tom p
     
    #187
  8. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    autoguy


    laughinggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg

    I wont answer that, you would suggest I lied about having grand kids
    or even a boat.


    tdb
     
    #188
  9. Onautopilot, Sep 4, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    If a DI is setting for a seven on the come out roll, I can understand them not wanting to count that roll in their overall SRR.

    But in reality, SRR means nothing....length of hand is the more important aspect of DI, and / or, specific numbers rolled.

    So if I had 40,000 logged DI rolls, I would look at several aspects of that data.

    1. Average length of hands. (all rolls included)

    2. SRR on the come out rolls. (If I were setting for them on the come out)

    3. The standard deviation for all "expected" numbers I was setting for. (more of this or that)

    Of course, if I were changing sets for various reasons during the overall 40,000 set of data, I would identify those sub-sets, and apply the above criteria for each of those sub-sets also.

    It would be a task for sure, but the only way one could establish a true "confidence level" for each objective.......Length of hands, specific number combinations, and the come out 7's, if setting for them.

    Now maybe Billy is doing all of this, and I am just not understanding his offered data.

    But with the above exercise, then structuring a betting strategy that matched the "confidence level: established, one should be able to take full advantage of any identified "skill" level.

    There are other complexities.....if you are rolling more of one numbers or numbers, then you are also rolling less of other numbers, and that would be information you need in structuring your betting strategy.

    Billy mentioned that it wasn't rocket science, but it is a challenging probability exercise.
     
    #189
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  10. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    autoguy

    You don't have any understanding what I do..none...
    How in the world can you help me...
    And then I assume that when you attack , question or
    insult every other person on here that works with the
    dice like Linaway or their shot like SR or James you
    are trying to help them ????


    Sorry after having spent 40 years in court work I can tell
    a con job when I see it. You and TDV are two peas in a pod.

    tdv
     
    #190
  11. TDVegas, Sep 4, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Absolutely great point.

    In any kind of one off between a random roller or a DI...it's going to be a short term battle. In my view it's going to be 50/50 on win/lose. Even DI's admit it can't just be dialed up, bad sessions happen, bad days, off days. Also good days. Understood. The random roller can essentially say the same thing. Neither can predict when that will happen in such short term scenarios. A DI's own words indicate it might not go well...even though they would like not to admit that. Understood.

    If, if, they lose (I still concede it's a coin flip and they could win) they might say the random roller got lucky.

    "YES"....I'm going to yell. YES. Lucky. It's a random game of chance. Luck is required. Needed. It's a big part of the game. I got it during the session. Or, maybe you got it.

    I still think for any confidence in DI...as was noted by another member, it has to be a short term claim...meaning you can consistently skew something in 36 roll sets to HAVE confidence. Not think it. Not assume it. Know it. Not rely on 2,000, 3,000 or 40,000 roll data.

    Others may differ on how to determine enough of a confidence level for it to matter and how many rolls that would take. I can respect that. This isn't an exact science. Same would apply for those saying they can spot bias dice in 20-30 rolls or others saying you need much more.

    Beyond it all..I think any advantage player has to be on a live table on a regular basis.
     
    #191
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  12. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    autoguy


    you cant be that stupid...... I did everything humanly possible to make
    sure you did not misunderstand how and why I calculate it like
    this.... but I will provide it again...
    Sorry I forgot something.

    I understand you will get all worked up over the hands instead of just
    3000 shots.

    I have indicated this before, but you will certainly want to turn it
    around some way.

    The reason I use hands and the type of hand I count is because I
    want to have some way to determine how different tables or different
    shots affect the number of shots I have on the table.

    I start at the come out roll determination shot. If I throw a 7, 3,2 and 8
    I start the count at 8. I do that because that is the point that I really
    start to risk money. I want to see if there is a difference in the
    average number of shots I get at Keshena as compared to Green Bay
    as compared to Turtle lake or Madison. Since every table is different
    I expect my averages to be different,and they are. Since that is
    the way I play, that is the way I practice and the way I record
    what happens there.

    See now you cant insult me or my records by playing games with the
    way I record my data.


    I guess that did not help you had to insult me anyway suggesting I don't
    understand SRR....

    Then you got the guts to ask about my grand kids....

    you got nerve I give you that..

    tdb
     
    #192
  13. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    hornhiyo


    Its not a gamble on my part, I am 100% sure my roll length will be longer
    than TDV ... 40,000 rolls sure.

    I have spent now 30 years fishing lake Michigan, he and I out there fishing
    I will out fish him....period.

    I have spent 28 years now fishing one lake in Canada, we go out there for two weeks
    I will out fish him ..period

    He has played bubble craps a lot I have not.. if he and I play each day for 2 weeks TDV
    will beat me ....

    Its not a matter of one person being better at everything.. but a matter of what one
    person has worked longer at and got better at than anotherthat has spent no
    time doing it..
    tdb
     
    #193
  14. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    autoguy

    There is noting civil about you....

    case in point..... you said ...

    When I ask a question, I am not always rejecting your proffer, I may doubt it, but I would also provide my reasons. Considering those reasons might just be helpful in some cases.

    You said the same to Linaway... "you may have something here but I doubt it..

    I could say to you... Autoguy.. you may be a decent guy...but I doubt it.... now lets
    talk about fishing.......

    sorry I doubt it.


    tdb
     
    #194
  15. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Autoguy


    Here is the point, I have tried as hard as I know how to explain what I record,
    I don't know how else to explain it... it seems pretty simple to me....

    If I seem short to you on this subject is because I assume rightly or wrongly
    that you fully understand and are just trying to make others look stupid as
    you and TDV both do on a regular basis.

    You understand I have a right to calculate my roll length anyway I want...correct?
    you do understand that???

    I have explained a number of times that GTC uses SRR the very same way.
    They fully understand it is 8. 4 or 5..... but they want to show the number of
    rolls after the point is set.

    If you as your suggest are smart enough to want to help me, then you can determine
    that is my (SRR) is between 8.1-8.4 not counting the come out 2,3,7,11,12 , it is also
    higher than the typical SRR definition of 8.4 or 8.5.

    There is a difference between the way different shots react of different tables, the GTC
    works better on a harder table or one that is either 12-14 feet long than one which is
    16 feet. It also works better on an older table with the smaller pyramids. The inline
    shot works better on softer tables than a GTC shot and also can be used on the
    newer tables... Others have other shots they use......

    If you don't record your average shot on each over some time, you cant make
    a correct decision about your betting positions.

    Now again I have just given you more respect in trying to explain this than you
    have ever given me or any other DI on this board....

    Why I will never know

    twodice billy
     
    #195
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  16. Onautopilot, Sep 4, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Fair enough.....I'm finished if you are. No more references to me, and you will no longer hear from me.

    It is evident I have nothing to offer that you care to hear....again, fair enough. If I no longer see "Autoguy" in your posts, I will ignore them completely!
     
    #196
  17. HornHiYo, Sep 4, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    All that practice time and record keeping and it appears he is still is no better off with it than he is without it.
    The proof is in the pudding!
    He posts about taking a number of DI classes both on and off axis DI shooting along with learning to read dice. Now he schmoozes with SR, Harley other Short Busers and the ACA!
    Seems one still in search of has yet to find the gold!
     
    #197
  18. HornHiYo, Sep 4, 2016

    HornHiYo

    HornHiYo Member

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    Fishing is one thing. Gambling is another. If you have a shoot out, good luck but TDV is just as likely to have the better hands.
    Frankly, I think you may have under estimated variance. But don't say I didn't tell ya so.
     
    #198
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2016
  19. twodicebilly, Sep 4, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Hornhiyo


    Thanks

    I agree fishing is different, but my point was that experience is part of
    the confidence you have. I am not talking about some shoot out at
    a casino, I suggested a simple test.. .he throw enough hands with
    the starting point at the pass line set point shot until he gets to
    3000 rolls, I will do the same.

    As you recall it was TDV that suggested if you have an edge it cant vary
    and it was me that suggested you cant calculate it that way because
    everything varies..

    The reason I understand I can have a longer roll average is I can vary
    my set according to the shot I have at the time. that is far different
    than suggesting we both go to the table and throw 3000 shots with
    the very same etc such as you would in a typical smart craps or
    Win craps set up.

    In that way I think this is similar to fishing in that if we went on
    Lake Michigan to fish and used only one bait and one way of fishing
    we would catch much less than now with the ability to have hundreds
    of different baits and 4-5 different ways to present them.

    Just like in bubble craps... I bet TDV is pretty good at that, he can do
    it everyday.... I don't think I could beat him in a reasonable test now.

    twodicebilly
     
    #199
  20. wonko33, Sep 4, 2016

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    James and Twodicebilly, why do you guys hit the return key at random places in your sentences? It looks so weird and makes it hard to follow.
     
    #200
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