Varience and hot roll betting

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016.

  1. Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    Ok new to the site. A little history. Have been playing poker since I was 8. was a slow reader as a child and have dyslexia. Teachers told my parents to let me read anything to get better. I started reading about gambling and poker ( 2 different things by the way). at 13 built a craps table in my basement. stopped playing when I went to college, and did not pick it up again seriously until 2003 when I saw Moneymaker at WSOP.
    Started plating on line and then when it go shut down starter playing in casinos. about 4 years ago started wandering over to craps table to kill time waiting for Tournaments to start. fast forward to today. I might play a poker tourney now and again but I go to casinos to play craps. Lots of Craps.
    Typical is for me work a 1/2 day mid week ( I own my own business now) and travel 1 to 2 hours depending on casino and play from 2 pm to 12pm. So I see a ton of rolls. probably 600 to 700 in a session. I am up to 2 times per month consistently.
    Why do I tell you all of this? It goes back to that table in the basement. I rolled for hours and hours.
    and I can testify that if the dice are true the odds work out. They just do. This includes setting dice ( which I do but for a different reason I will go into later.) Next post will start the real discussion.
     
    #1
    Settingcanthurt likes this.
  2. Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    I know there is a calculation for Variance and would appreciate an stats guy on the forum to chime in and add some depth to the conversation. So I f we look at Variance as the only concrete mathematical explanation for consistent winning opportunity how do we expand on that?
    1) betting patterns ( not systems ) - The difference is a system is something you follow through on regardless of Variance. I will define betting patters and making low house odds bets or taking bets down based upon what is happening with the dice right now. So some would say hogwash right here and now and I don't blame you if you do, But if Variance is real then patterns within the variance are real also. call it variance squared if you will.
    Example: shooter 1 has come off a very good roll ( 3 points or better). I have been doing 1 of 2 things here.
    1. Cash out and take a break if I am wining big or just gotten out of a big hole back to even.
    2. Start playing the don't pass with odds while placing 1 or 2 numbers. If numbers hit 2 times I take down my don't bet and play off the 2 numbers. I will do this until something feels right to get back to my normal aggressive play.

    Again this has nothing to do with Odds we know they are in house favor but ie we target the variance when it is in our favor we should be able to build an advantage.

    The interesting thing about the variance when it swings the other way. for the house to have a variance of 3 loses in a row If we have switched to betting the don't pass and remove our don'ts on the times we win 2 pass bets. Yes Please someone with a stats and craps background start breaking this down.

    I don't know if its timing, luck or if I am onto something here because I am winning.

    next topic will be table carma and mistakes
     
    #2
  3. Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    2. Karma and mistakes
    I believe what come around goes around. How I apply this to craps. We all make mistakes. lots of them. The casinos have an advantage in that they have personnel trained to do a job, people to watch them, people watching the watchers and cameras watching friggin everything. So lets focus on our mistakes for a minute. I am very social at the table to both players and deals. In fact I tend to help defuse situations in a lot of cases. I also tip when I win ( I pay for some decent money with average starting bets at 100 to 360 per roll.) So when I am winning I am the guy starting the pass line bets for dealers and encouraging others to place odds for them. I am the guy that saves a few $1 chips for a tip when I loose. I am the guy who tips $25 on the solid wins and places a $5 world bet for the dealers as I am coloring up. I do this for several reasons. First I liked to be liked as much as the next guy and most dealers are nice people also so being nice to nice people is easy for me. But from the gamblers side I also get the benefit of dealers looking out for me when I make a mistake. They are not breaking the rules they are helping a customer. simple things that add up. Reminding me to palace odds, or to pick up my field bet ( yes I do those on specific occasions too), Then there are other benefits. When I want to book a bet they make sure I get mine in before the roll either verbally or holding the dice in the middle until I am done. I get colored up out of order if there is a crowd at the time. I can call for bets to be slid over at the other end of the table so I have a clear landing. and many others of small importants.
    Now there are those occations when a dealer does make a kistake that no one catches, a verbal bet gets confued. hard 6 vs, hard 8 and the number I called hits soft. Well guess what the ass hole that complains and does not tip looses his bet everytime where as It goes my way very frequently. one roll bets that stay up by mistake, my questions on payouts errors are very rarely contested. est.
    then there are the holly shit he winked bets. Yes the dealer recognized he made a mistake and let it go on purpose. You got to walk a fine line on this one because if it happens more than now and again it is truly cheating.
    No statistical analysis needed here I just know that in a typical session this is worth $40 to $50 of bets so I am ahead against my table tips and putting some towards my drink tips.
     
    #3
  4. TDVegas, Aug 6, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    15,860
    Likes Received:
    9,607
    Well, not really. You may HAVE targeted variance to build wins...but unless you can predict the future, you have no idea if that favorable variance will continue, stop or reverse itself.

    If there were some type of "science" to winning craps....i.e. "If this happens, that will happen, increase bet on this, increase bet on that"...

    Craps would no longer exist.

    People and the desire for money are like termites in a wood factory. If they even sniff opportunity to make easy money thru some kind of "science wagering system" that actually works..there's already a line out the door of those wanting a seat at the table.

    The casino craps table would long be fire wood.
     
    #4
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2016
    The Midnight Skulker likes this.
  5. Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    3. Bet size
    I have watched a lot of guys move chips. The casinos in my area Foxwoods Mohegan and Twinn River have mostly $10 and $25 minimum bets with 5x or 10x odds.
    Twinn River casino gives some extra play on the 5x odds table when you make a $15 pass line bet they let you go to $75 on 4 and 10, $100 on 5 and 9 and $125 on 6 and 8 basing the odds on the pay out being fair to the player. Someone please calculate those additional bonus odds for me. I also like the first step up on buying the 4 and 10. I usually buy them for 25 and go to 35 if it hits, This still costs only a $1 vig and at Foxwoods they take the vig after the bet is decided. so you only look it when you win. I want to name my next Boat 70 for 1. Ok another one for the stat guy. what is the true house odds on the 70 for 1 payout on winning bets only against 2 to 1 odds? also I believe that in this scenario buying the 5 and 9 become more profitable than placing them. I do not see any other players doing this but I will start doing it at foxwoods on my visit this week.
     
    #5
  6. Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    I agree systems do not work. and I agree that variance comes and goes so this plays into the 2nd half of the topic Hot rolls
     
    #6
  7. Tonemonster, Aug 6, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    The table tends to even out even over the course of a 500 roll sample size, I have a betting size that has been working against my bank roll size. so I start with 10 on pass and when the point is made I put up 50 odds and 60 on 6 and 8 if they are not the point. if one of them is the point I put 60 on the 5 for a total of 180 action. If the table is choppy I should hit 1 of those bets 14 to 6 against the 7. If I hit the 6 or 8 I buy the 4 and 10 for 25 and place the 9 for 20. no new money in but reinvested the entire win. If one of my big bets hit again I take the profit and move the 6 and 8 down to 30 and drop odds down to 30 which leaves me with 130 action and $50 left to recapture. I continue on keeping $25 and reinvesting the $5 chips. During the choppy part of a session I may put in as much as 2,000 before a hot roll hits. but usually enough 1 point rolls keep me +/- 500, a decent 2 point roll and I have won $500 to $750. Now the hot roll. If I get either a long 2 point roll of 3 points and Up I am hitting it hard for 2 to 3 k on that roll.
    After that roll I go to the don'ts as described in betting patterns above. I am starting to peel off wining to pay for cash purchases around the house so that even if I run my bank roll dry I have taken out my original bank roll.
    I am not saying this is anything but luck and will treat it as such.
    But I am trying to see if anyone that crunches numbers has look as variance plus the effect of betting into that hot roll and going to the don't pass after such rolls has any statistical value that can be applied.
     
    #7
  8. Twelve4s, Aug 6, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    6,379
    Likes Received:
    6,468
    Gender:
    Male

    You live in Mesa, by any chance?
     
    #8
    HornHiYo likes this.
  9. Tonemonster, Aug 7, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    no on the east coast
     
    #9
  10. Tonemonster, Aug 7, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    Dice setting- yes I set dice. I do it fast and consistent. It has NOTHING to do with outcome of the roll.
    It has to do with table energy. Ok I have created an image at the table as a shooter. Most people remember the good rolls not the bad ones. What benefit is this.
    1) When I approach a crowded table I get let in by the regulars who think I am a good shooter and I don't make too many center bets that slow down the game. This lets me jump into a hot roll now and again.
    2) people give me my space. I am a big guy 6'1" 275lbs. I get 2 racks of space and no one tries to crowd me.
    3) I can call off stick change for a roll at my regular casino. I stand in 2nd position right of stick usually so I have the ear of the stick and the oncoming stick, I tip they like me, they drop there keys, they ship the dice, they do what it takes to please me.. I will put my place bets off during a stick change. going off for any 1 roll is a good thing. I end up covering all 5 plus the point. I end up with 200 to 600 in place bets. I come back on for 25 a number so it is a great excuse to take down several bets. and everyone says how did you know when the dice hit 7. I did not know diddly they just think I did.
    4) I get tipped by big winners. I get bets made for me. I have had regulars chant tip the shooter.
    5) I get drinks paid for from players. My regular casino charges $5.50 for a Corona at the tables.
     
    #10
  11. eagleeye2, Aug 7, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,244
    Likes Received:
    557
    Gender:
    Male
    Tonemonster,

    Interesting posts, most here hope that your Skills, Technique, or Whatever continue, as they have in the past.

    You will find some here, however, that despise a winner, as they are always losers. Best for you to ignore them, as they try to take your postings down.

    eagleeye2
     
    #11
  12. Dave G Ct, Aug 7, 2016

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Messages:
    6,907
    Likes Received:
    851
    Gender:
    Male
    Nice posting Tonemonster
     
    #12
  13. Twelve4s, Aug 7, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    6,379
    Likes Received:
    6,468
    Gender:
    Male
  14. eagleeye2, Aug 8, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,244
    Likes Received:
    557
    Gender:
    Male

    Twelve4s,

    No Players, No Chips, Point is (4), what, they hit 12 of them?

    egleeye2
     
    #14
  15. Twelve4s, Aug 8, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    6,379
    Likes Received:
    6,468
    Gender:
    Male

    Take another look. Try zoom.
     
    #15

  16. FredP

    FredP Member

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,329
    Likes Received:
    749
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Northern NJ, Clinton area
    I see chips and a hand.
     
    #16
  17. eagleeye2, Aug 8, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,244
    Likes Received:
    557
    Gender:
    Male

    tWEL
    Twelve4s,

    I stand corrected, there appears to be two bets on the table, with a 4 as the point.

    I still ask, Point is (4), what, they hit 12 of them?

    eagleeye2
     
    #17
  18. Tonemonster, Aug 8, 2016

    Tonemonster

    Tonemonster Member

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2016
    Messages:
    12
    Likes Received:
    4
    Gender:
    Male
    Ok will be off for a 2 day run

    Room comped for 2 days - value $300
    $500 free bet- I put the coupon on Black, $250 on Red, $25 each on 0,00. Min. win is $200 max win $600
    150 points for just showing up- will fill the gas take at 1.5 point per $1 so 50 bucks in gas.
    free food for 2 days= $100
    free booze for 2 days = $100
    average bet will be $200 for 16 hours of play at 1.41 house advantage x 5% comp rate= 225 players points


    bank roll for 2 days $5000. will let you know how it goes.
     
    #18
    Onautopilot likes this.
  19. Onautopilot, Aug 8, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,733
    Gender:
    Male
    Good luck, and enjoy all those comps!
     
    #19
  20. Twelve4s, Aug 8, 2016

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    6,379
    Likes Received:
    6,468
    Gender:
    Male

    I doubt it. I just thought it was a cool table.
     
    #20