# ugly night a the tables

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by scott22, Feb 5, 2012.

1. kaysirtap, Mar 3, 2012

### kaysirtap Member

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mmm hmm... now I see why you were kicked off a different board. The math behind comparing the bets is absolutely relevant... you can compare the PL only without odds to the Place bet with same dollar amounts. I'm guessing that you just don't know how to do it properly, or you know that it shows that you are wrong.

You claim PL bettors are not being honest to newbies because you think the bet is only better under certain conditions, and you are wrong. It is you who is not being honest because you recognize the difference between Pass Line bets and Put bets in that the former has a chance to win on the come-out roll, but you refuse to acknowledge this difference when you compare them to Place bets in terms of net wins. Perhaps it is you who is the newbie.

Falcon, do you agree that the “real” math says that the Pass Line (without odds) is better than a Place bet?

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2. slorch, Mar 3, 2012

### slorch Member

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Falcon-

you've been banned from a craps board before?

Very, incredibly difficult to imagine why...

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3. Sancho Panza, Mar 3, 2012

### Sancho Panza Member

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I realize that my math ain't too great, but let's see whether this dumb question can qualify me for the charmed circle.
Could you explain with a simple example or two how this principle works:

"Place bets of equal \$\$ amounts out pay PL/FO bets at 3X and 4X."

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4. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

### falcon Member

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Sure, I will give you one example to keep it short. \$10 minimum table with a minimum \$10 PL bet and 3x odds for an additional \$30. The point is a 10. After the point is established, a player Places the 10 for \$40 - same \$\$ amount at risk.

The shooter converts and wins the 10 point. The PL/FO combined pays \$70. The Place bet pays \$72. If there was a 7 out both lose their \$40. Of course had the shooter thrown 7/11 at come out, he would be ahead by a net \$8. A craps come out would dig his hole a bit deeper at -\$12. The fact that the shooter has no choice as to the point creates a separate dilemma for his FO wager as to how much being that the house now has that two to one edge against conversion. The Place bettor also has choices should he choose not to play the PL.

Hope this satisfies your curiosity, and it is accurate. There is nothing wrong with the math here, but the "establishment" is so heavily invested in the FO that somehow they do not believe that newbies or modest players should be exposed to other possibilities and choices which COULD be better. Their feet are planted in cement.

falcon

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5. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

### falcon Member

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kst: I answered most all your questions and concerns back on page 3 of this thread. Did you review my post?

Where exactly did I say that Place bets were better than PL bets? The only way one can compare the PL bet w/o odds to the Place bet is to have a Place bet turned on at come out. Let's do that. So here is the breakdown: \$10 PL vs \$10 Placed 6 at come out:

7 = \$10 PL winner; 11 =\$10 PL winner; craps =\$10 PL loser; 4,5,6,8,9,10 no harm/no foul

6 = \$11 Place winner; 7 = \$10 loser; any other number = no harm/no foul.

Advantage for a winner = PL
Advantage of payout = Place bet.

Now then kst why not tell everyone here why you think I got kicked off the other boards.

As far as being wrong, you actually believe that one can make 1,000 PL bets for \$1 and only lose \$14 (rounded down .10). You actually believe that one could have 996 PL winners during any string of 1,000 consecutive PL outcomes. You actually believe that everyone in the craps "establishment" believe that too. WOW - go for it. So here is the challenge, do you really, really believe that out of 1,000 PL wagers one could only lose \$14 (rounded down .10)? Be honest now; the newbies want to know.

falcon

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6. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

### falcon Member

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Twice, i.e., two different forums. I am a rock star. I was also banned from the fairtax.org board when I came up with questions about the law their chief economist could not answer and put a huge dent in their taxing philosophy that would in fact ruin the US economy not stimulate it.

falcon

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7. kaysirtap, Mar 4, 2012

### kaysirtap Member

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I'm guessing that it's because you are a major PITA. If I had a board, I'd kick you off too. Your statements about the game constantly need correction as to not mislead and confuse others who may seek information here.

Just what I thought... you don't understand what the math says. I don't know where 996 came from, but I'm guessing that it's because you can't do math either.
Yes

Do you agree that the “real” math says that the Come bet (without odds) is better than a Place bet? A "yes" or "no" will do fine, thank you.

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8. slorch, Mar 4, 2012

### slorch Member

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By third grade, I had learned that 2-1 was better than 9-5.

You evidently cannot master this.

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9. falcon, Mar 4, 2012

### falcon Member

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You obviously agree with kst above that if one bets on 1,000 consecutive PL outcomes for \$1 each, the player will only lose \$14 (rounded down).
Since they must have covered that in third grade math, can you explain to me how that happens in third grade language?

By the way, a \$40 Place bet on the 10 pays @ 9-5 \$72; a PL for \$10 plus 3x odds @ 2-1 for \$30 pays \$70. Go figure.

falcon

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10. DeMango, Mar 4, 2012

### DeMango Member

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1,000 X -.014 X \$1 = -\$14 And that kiddies is how we solve the expected value of rolling the dice for 1,000 turns!

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11. falcon, Mar 4, 2012

### falcon Member

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So go for it. Start your own forum. I will come on and continue to intellectually challenge some really outrageous assertions as you have acknowledged below, and you can kick me off the board. How good is that? Or I could start a forum and you could come on board making those same outrageous assertions which I would intellectually challenge, and I would leave everything up there for the other folks to make comments or challenges to make informed decisions about how they might want to play. No guts - no glory.

Just what I thought... you don't understand what the math says. I don't know where 996 came from, but I'm guessing that it's because you can't do math either.
Yes[/quote]

Okay, in simple third grade language, so that slorch can relate, explain the "math" that would allow one to make 1,000 consecutive PL bets for \$1 and only lose \$14 (rounded down .10). You see the simple arithmetic states that in order to only lose \$14, one must win 986 PL wagers out of 1,000 \$1 PL bets to only lose \$14. Your turn.

Do you agree that the “real” math says that the Come bet (without odds) is better than a Place bet? A "yes" or "no" will do fine, thank you.[/quote]

Sorry, that is a are you still beating your pet armadillo question.

\$10 Come bet vs a \$10 Place 9 bet:

7 = \$10 Come win; 11 = \$10 Come win; craps = \$10 Come loss; all other numbers are a no harm/no foul.

7 = \$10 Place loss; 9 = \$14 Place win; all other numbers are a no harm/no foul.

falcon

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12. falcon, Mar 4, 2012

### falcon Member

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Very good Demango; you surprise me. Unfortunately, the .014 is not part of the bet. It is the result which cannot happen. kst challenged me to do the work and make the bets; I declined. I am sure you would too, and by the way, "expected value" is not reality. \$\$\$ to the house are reality.

falcon

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13. slorch, Mar 4, 2012

### slorch Member

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Hey Falcon you convinced me...

That \$2 Hi low pays better than the PL bet too...

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14. kaysirtap, Mar 4, 2012

### kaysirtap Member

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I think you meant to say that you will continue to be intellectually challenged.
Oh... so it's 986 now. Falcon, you mathematical and quoting genius... 986 wins and 14 losses at \$1 each is a win of \$972. The arithmetic really doesn't get much simpler than that.

This is what I'm talking about... you don't understand the math behind the game... and it doesn't even look like you understand math at all.

To lose \$14 it would be 493 wins and 507 losses. You should really stop trying to make fun of other people's math when it is obvious that you can't do it yourself.

I guess it doesn't do any good to ask you about "real" math when you can't seem to do any math at all. The correct answer was "yes", but thanks for playing.

Just in case other people are curious, I'll post another PM quote from you:

The 1.41% HA on PL bets is, I believe, real in the perfect math world, but I maintain that it has never been documented or accomplished except with virtual simulations. - falcon

Thanks for acknowledging at least once that the 1.41% is "real". We'll let others decide what kind of effect the perfect math has on reality.

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15. basicstrategy777, Mar 4, 2012

### basicstrategy777 Member

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Common sense is like deodorant... The people who need it most never use it.

777

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16. Southern-Comfort, Mar 4, 2012

### Southern-Comfort Member

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Nice one... wide open for a smartass response, which will only prove the correctness of the statement. I'm gonna steal it. Thanks!

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17. falcon, Mar 5, 2012

### falcon Member

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[q=kst]: To lose \$14 it would be 493 wins and 507 losses. You should really stop trying to make fun of other people's math when it is obvious that you can't do it yourself.[/quote]

That math is correct. I was wrong in my illustration. No excuses.

falcon

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18. falcon, Mar 5, 2012

### falcon Member

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The 1.41% HA on PL bets is, I believe, real in the perfect math world, but I maintain that it has never been documented or accomplished except with virtual simulations. - falcon

[q=kst]: Thanks for acknowledging at least once that the 1.41% is “real”. We’ll let others decide what kind of effect the perfect math has on reality. [/quote]

Is has been reported that there are 3 million people that play craps in this country. It is my guess that 2.985 million or less could care less or even entertain your 1.41% "reality." The "others" play, try and win, try and have fun, and play as the "establishment" suggest, and mostly experience what has been quoted on the first page of this thread.

falcon

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19. The Midnight Skulker, Mar 7, 2012

### The Midnight Skulker Member

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I still have to ask to what do an 11.1% net advantage and this new figure of 89% (rounded up) apply?

And another question. In other posts you contend that the \$10 PL bettor taking 3x odds has to win 4 comeout decisions to make up for a loss during the point roll. Aren't you ignoring the possibility that the PL w/3x odds bettor might win a point decision, thereby making up more than the loss?

"Liars figure but figures don't lie." Attached is a spreadsheet comparing a \$30 PL bet with no odds -- for the numerically challenged, that is less than the amount you claim to be necessary to match the performance of a Place bet on the point -- to a \$30 Place bet on the point made after that point is established over 1980 perfectly distributed Pass Line decisions.

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20. guido1, Mar 8, 2012

### guido1 Member

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It has been documented many times but one can believe whatever they want too.
falcon. you are exactly right about all those that push the 1.41% pass edge only.

expected value, by itself, is a useless value.

You and I know that.

You and I need to stamp out all this "ev only" stupidity.
Lets Do It man!

"expected value and variance" or "ev and sd" is the real world controlled by the short change effect that the casino does on all their payoffs.
You and I both know that the pass line pays even money when it should pay \$251/244 per \$1 won.

real world distributions from the math...

1000 pass line bets at \$5 has an ev of -\$70.70707
with a standard deviation of \$158.0981
~73% chance of ending between -\$230 and +\$110 (house edge of -4.40% to 2.20%)
yes, variance for everyone!!!

~33.9% chance of being even or coming out ahead.
~10% chance of losing more than \$280
~10% chance of winning more than \$130
~1.43790 chance of winning \$280 or more
Taking just 1X odds INCREASES all the chances of being even or coming out ahead.
Yeah!

Yeah!!!
Take that you ev pushers.