ugly night a the tables

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by scott22, Feb 5, 2012.

  1. slorch, Mar 2, 2012

    slorch

    slorch Member

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  2. kaysirtap, Mar 2, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    Falcon, do you agree that the “real” math says that the Pass Line (without odds) is better than a Place bet?
     
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  3. slorch, Mar 2, 2012

    slorch

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    [/quote]

    1. I am an experienced player, but am always willing to learn.

    2. A place bet will never approach the lack of house advantage on the free odds bet, regardless of the incremental increase of units. Never.

    3. You continue to ignore the advantage enjoyed by the right way bettor on the PL bet on the come out roll. You cannot just summarily dismiss that difference unless you are choosing not to face reality...
     
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  4. falcon, Mar 2, 2012

    falcon

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    It does... you just don't understand what the "real" math means.
    Exactly what I just said. That's not what the "real" math means or says. You've confused math with gambler's fallacy. The "real" math says that the 7 has a 1/6 chance of being thrown. That's all the "real" math says. What that means is that it will show once every six rolls ON AVERAGE.

    Stop pretending that you understand the math.

    [q=kst]: It does... you just don’t understand what the “real” math means. [/q]

    Your "real" math is all about "on average"; "long term"; "expected outcomes"; and perhaps a host of other lofty undefinable entities which cannot be counted on to create a wagering edge. Your form of proof is, again, all about computer simulations with millions of virtual rolls and an unlimited bankroll. Those quotes above reflect the real world of the here and now using real time, real play, and real money. There is nothing in your "real" math that can change random.

    Do you at least agree that the "real" math says that the Pass Line (without odds) is better than a Place bet?[/quote]

    If I do not bet the PL at come out and you do, for me there is no outcome at all. Otherwise 11% of the time a winner will happen for the PL player against my no involvement choice and that is okay with me.

    falcon
     
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  5. kaysirtap, Mar 2, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    Falcon, you're better off not trying to quote properly because you have people saying things that they didn't say.

    Do you agree that the “real” math says that the Pass Line (without odds) is better than a Place bet?
     
    #65
  6. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    1. I am an experienced player, but am always willing to learn.

    2. A place bet will never approach the lack of house advantage on the free odds bet, regardless of the incremental increase of units. Never.

    3. You continue to ignore the advantage enjoyed by the right way bettor on the PL bet on the come out roll. You cannot just summarily dismiss that difference unless you are choosing not to face reality...[/quote]

    It has been stated a number of times that the PL bet is a separate and independent wager, which I acknowledge. #2 above has absolutely nothing to do with the PL wager in that it cannot be made as a stand alone bet. The FO by definition occurs after the point is established and is, at that point, tied to the PL wager which pays only even money. The house gets to recoup the so-called player advantage at 4x or less. Compartmentalizing the two wagers allows one to evade the fact that once the player produces a FO bet, the advantage in payouts can only exist at the 5x level or higher.

    Your # 3 dismisses the vast majority of play which occurs after the point is established and then dismisses the fact that a 7 out takes both bets which is extremely difficult recover with multiple PL winners. The real paradox lies in the fact that PL wagers are almost always at the table minimum which leads me to wonder if that "advantage" is so great, why is there such timidity in the bet? Why do PL players steadfastly tout this huge "advantage" of the come out to justify or bolster their argument but only manage those minimum wagers? It is you who is dismissing/ignoring the "great" bet.

    falcon
     
    #66
  7. basicstrategy777, Mar 3, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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  8. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    You are right up there with Demango. It is pretty easy to get under your skin too.

    falcon
     
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  9. kaysirtap, Mar 3, 2012

    kaysirtap

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    Oh falcon... do you agree that the “real” math says that the Pass Line (without odds) is better than a Place bet?
     
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  10. slorch, Mar 3, 2012

    slorch

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    I'll suffer through my ignorance.

    You'll pay for yours...LOL.
     
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  11. DeMango, Mar 3, 2012

    DeMango

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    DeMango does not argue with a fool.
     
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  12. basicstrategy777, Mar 3, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    If I am going to be a prick, I want to be the King of pricks. I try to be the best I can be....in all things. Hopefully I am at or near the top. I have been told by others I am indeed at the top level.


    777
     
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  13. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    Isn't it great to be # 1 at something? Congrats!! Perhaps you could post the dictionary total evaluation of "prick" as it relates to you and Demango if your inference is that of being in the top 2 to enlighten the masses.

    falcon
     
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  14. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    I always try to "pay it forward." As an "experienced" craps player, you should be able to respond properly to the questions above. After all there are newbies and modest $$$ players who would be able to make informed decisions about their play based on intellectually honest and accurate answers to genuine concerns.

    falcon
     
    #74
  15. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    "argue"??? Try the word "disparage." By the way, are you in the top 2 with BS777?

    falcon
     
    #75
  16. slorch, Mar 3, 2012

    slorch

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    Noob players and your misguiding statements are the main reasons for peoples' responses on this thread.

    Experienced players, or anyone that passed 3rd grade math, know your statements are false.
     
    #76
  17. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    [q=kst]: Why do you try to always emphasize that this advantage is for “one roll”? Do you think it makes a difference how many rolls there are between the come-out and the decision roll? Is the “one roll” advantage somehow bigger in proportion during a roll like 9, 9... as opposed to a roll like 9, 2, 3, 11, 11, 2, 9? It’s not. You talk about “one roll” as if it’s insignificant. It’s not. [/q]

    Finally got to your March 1 post.

    The vast consensus of opinion here is the touting of the PL "advantage" at come out. That is the great difference maker according to most. The continuous objections to what I post is that I am "ignoring/dismissing" the come out roll winners of the PL and therefore cannot make any comparisons to Place bets in terms of payout shortages or advantage.

    The significance or importance of one roll as it relates to your example can be stated just as easily as 9, 7... as opposed to a roll like 9,2,3,11,11,2,7 which on average is more likely than your example. So if the player has a PL/FO at 3x on a $10 table, he is down $80, and now needs eight PL come out winners to break even or two consecutive point conversions to amass a small profit, which I know you recognize to be difficult but not impossible.

    [qkst]: Yep, that’s about right. 66+% of the time the advantage is “flipped on its head” (or however you like to put it). Hey, by the way... that means that 33+% of the time, that advantage is not flipped on its head. “One roll”, you say falcon? 33.3%, I say.

    If your mantra is that 66% of the time the “one roll” advantage doesn’t exist because the PL isn’t resolved on the come-out roll (it could have been a 7 or 11, but it wasn’t), you must also agree that there is also no disadvantage during all of the intermediate rolls - because the PL isn’t resolved then either (it could have been a 7, but it wasn’t). That should mean that there isn’t a disadvantage 75%, 72% and 69% of the time once the point is established, depending on the point. By this logic, there is only a disadvantage on the decision roll - when there is a decision, it will most likely be in favor of the casino (the 7). Therefore, there are only two rolls that are meaningful to the Pass Line: the come-out roll and the decision roll. On one of them, the player has an advantage. Is one out of two rolls significant enough for you?[/q]

    That is a great summation, and I agree with it. For me, the player advantage on the come out is not significant or important because of what your summation above shows and the fact that the PL is a contract bet that I as a player cannot control. The almost mandatory response for PL bettors is the FO follow up because of the indoctrination by the "establishment." To win a table minimum wager at the rate of 11.1% of the time net at come out is truly insignificant when taking in the whole picture of negatives as you have posted above. Obviously, others, such as yourself, are making a different decision.

    [q=kst]: If your justification for “tied together at the hip” is that they lose together, then I guess Place bets are also tied at the hip to the PL bet?[/q]

    Do not deny that as all right side bets are tied to a 7 out.

    [q=kst]: You don’t believe this approximation is correct for 1000 PL bets? Try it for yourself and let us know how it works out. No odds. A bet is complete once it has won or lost.[/q]

    I know that it does not work. You go first and do the work to prove and support the hypothesis. The craps "establishment" needs to know for sure as it is they who are so heavily invested in the 1.41% HA.

    [q=kst]: C’mon, man. It’s right there in front of you. People will play the come out roll all they want, and when the bet is resolved on that roll, they will likely be a winner... I know you know this. Factor those wins into your comparison. Show us you can do the math.[/q]

    No argument here within the stated parameters, i.e., a resolved come out roll will most likely be a winner in favor of the PL player.

    As far as the math on the other questions, they are of no concern to me in that they do not relate to the basic premise of the PL/FO payouts vs similar $$ risk on Place bets at 4x or less.


    falcon
     
    #77
  18. basicstrategy777, Mar 3, 2012

    basicstrategy777

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    3 rolls of the dice get me 'your' 80 dollars not 8 PL winners......$10 parlayed twice on the PL will do it.

    And if the third roll is not a natural but a point number I still have a chance for my 80 bucks by making the point.

    I don't need no stinkin place bets.


    777
     
    #78
  19. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    Very good scenario, but a $15 hopped 7 will do the same thing if you are a clairvoyant, and you only need one 7. I like your creative thinking. You really have some potential there. How often have you tried that strategy after losing two consecutive points at the table in reality?

    falcon
     
    #79
  20. falcon, Mar 3, 2012

    falcon

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    And you passed third grade; how many tries did it take you?

    falcon
     
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