Truth and lies about Craps

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Craps Poopshoot, Sep 30, 2017.

  1. Craps Poopshoot, Sep 30, 2017

    Craps Poopshoot

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    If anyone ever says it is easy to win at craps - they are lying!

    Craps is a very unique game, and there is no other game like it in the casino. It is a game where YOU the player control the degree of Risk and volatility you want to get yourself in to.

    The higher risk comes high rewards!

    I have personally seen players come to the tables with $300 and walk away with over $33K! Only with Craps can this happen. When that does happen, it is the talk of the town for a few weeks, as players, floormen, dealers all tell about the player they know who hit it big at so and such casino.

    The downside of this is that the same players always loses it back to the casinos, and as the casinos see it, the Player is only "holding their money".

    Players are always looking for 'The Edge' something to give them a leg up over the casinos to chop down the house edge, or raise the Positive EV (Expected Value). This then beings in SYSTEM play and of course Dice Control/Influence.

    There is no SYSTEM that can beat the build in house edge in Craps. Most systems present a structured play to the player that if the player follows correctly, and has the bankroll to actually implement it, can over time bring them to win more than they lose. But the two critical elements of any system is:
    • Player has to have the correct bankroll to play the system,
    • Player has to actually follow the system correctly
    It is my observation that most players who learn or buy systems do neither.

    I think the Gambling Professor has it right in his methods, but requires a minimum of a $18K bankroll, and that is outside of the players day to day living expenses! Even if they have the money, most won't follow his methods anyway. The method I use is somewhat based on his ideas, the Dice Doctor ideas, and of Mr C's book, Craps as a Business.

    Oh, I am not claiming I am living off of gambling; No, I am not. Nobody is, not Howard, Not Heavy, NOBODY.

    Heavy, the so self-acclaimed Dice Influence Guru, in this thread explains the truths about Dice Influence...
    • Players must have a home Craps table to Practice Upon
    • Players must bet correctly
    • 20% of players actually have any ability at all to control the dice (even if the first two requirements are meet)
    My beef with Heavy and Howard always has been that they omit these TRUTH to new signups to their seminars who attend with the belief that they are gong to learn how to have Advantage Play with Craps as per what Heavy has said in his website and adverts.

    Heavy further elaborates in this thread as to why DI does not work, and defending Howard while excoriating yours truly. I honestly think that Heavy has really ever seen Howard shoot the dice, where i have watched Howard play many times in many different casinos, and stand by what I say about how he shoots the dice (short throws).

    Casino Towns bring out the worst in people! The emotional highs and lows that gambling brings is simply to much for most people, where they go on tilt emotionally way to easy. Emotionally challenged people are irrational and make irrational and illogical choices. Does not matter if they are winning or losing, for once the emotions kick in, they are lost to them and make poor choices that are greatly in favor of the casinos.

    Players lie. Lets just get that out as a fact. People lose but they will tell you that they are doing OK, or that they are winning. I have seen players 'lose out' here in Vegas only to deny it, and hawk everything they own to these shit pawn shops, max out credit cards on cash advances, and even engage in pimping or prostitution to just get the money in hopes of 'winning back some of what they lost'

    I have meet people coming to this city to do an 'Intervention' for a relative who has dug themselves a hole so deep, that they cannot get out of it. Here is how bad it gets...
    • No money in savings or checking
    • Markers all over town unpaid
    • Maxed out credit cards
    • No possessions of value cause they hawked it all to the pawn shops
    • No car, cause its in repo
    • Eviction notices
    • Utilities cut off
    • No phone, cause they can't pay the bill
    • No job. Cause they choose to go gambling and not to work or believed that gambling was their job!
    People who fall victim to Las Vegas become bitter, and everything they see is jaded by the losses they inured. They deny that gambling was their down fall, and they still believe that they have some system or 'skill' that will WIN, and only need the chance and bankroll to win it all back.

    Lose outs, that is someone who goes bust here in Vegas often following some delusional belief about a system or skill that involves high volatility betting and play.

    Ego with gambler is often the agent of the downfall. Ego denies the losses, whispers lies in ones ear that they can win, and raises anger towards those who point out any realities about their losing.

    LOST WAGES, aka Las Vegas is where dreamers come. So many come here with some scheme or idea on HOW TO BEAT THE CASINO and they play it out. Most lose, some win BUT they all eventually go home. Most people realize afters few trips to Las Vegas that their dreams and schemes to Beat Vegas is just that - fantasy dreams - and come to just understand that Las Vegas is just a playground for adult fun, and it's not going to be a place where they come to make money.

    Locals either play very conservatively or simply don't play at all. My own informal polling of locals shows me that 70% of the locals don't gamble at all, for they see no hopes of winning or ever recovering losses. Of the 30% that regularly gamble its more of a social thing - Bingo or keno lounges. There are whole rows of 4-card keno machines that have quite the social scene going on. Most locals keep their Gamble conservative and play within a budget. All locals know of some lose out who lost it all and had to have a relative 'rescue them' from Las Vegas, and that becomes a warning to the locals who play as to what happens when you let gambling run a muck!

    There are no locals who live 100% off of the casinos, TDVegas got that one right. Most locals who play regularly have Social Security, pensions, 401K investments, other cash investments that more or less pay the daily bills they have to pay, leaving a surplus for them to go play with weekly.

    Guys like Richard Munchkin, Bob Dancer who are local pros here in Vegas, all have secondary income from other sources and they will tell anyone who ask that today you need that to survive in Las Vegas as a gambler for Vegas is not like it was 15 to 20 years ago when gamblers could thrive here.

    Loses bring anger, anger brings hate, hate brings delusions!
    Its a cycle I have seen to much in this town, even to the point of making enemies out of nothing! Those who lose are convinced that the Casino did something, perhaps so, but the player still made the choice to play a losing game. Casinos make changes all the time, often against the players favor. 6/5 blackjack, tipple zero roulette, changes to the Video Poker software loads, unbalanced craps dice, higher volatility slots (and often to flashy and noisy), reduced comps and freebies, resort fees, parking fees, reduced services overall, cover charges for pools and clubs, and no host can give you anything anymore!

    So losing is easier in than ever in Las Vegas, your bankroll is hit harder to just pay for the things you need - food, rooms, drinks, parking.... Frustration sets in, anger builds up, resentment and paranoid thinking festers. This is all that is needed for delusions to brew, and where enemies are created out of thin air, accusations of this and that are flying all over the place, and thick emotional DRAMA is all that is left from the mess that is known as Las Vegas.
     
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  2. KokomoJoe4, Sep 30, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    No one in their right mind should contemplate making a "living" gambling. There will possibly be a few "success stories" with this, depending on how you might define success.

    At best, it should be an exercise to let off some steam, maybe have some fun, and try to win some money, with the understanding that you probably will do just the opposite.

    Of course there can and will be some nice wins. There will also be plenty of losses.

    I am not playing nearly as much as I did in the past. Going in this evening, but that's another matter.

    I have found that playing as aggressively as I dare, but only when playing with house money, I have an opportunity for a big win from a small buy-in. As many writers have stated, you can stand a lot of small losers if you have a few big winners.

    IMO, this is the best a regular gambler can hope for. It's not like we can decide in advance how much we are going to win today, but I'm predicting 3K.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 30, 2017
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  3. tabletop123, Sep 30, 2017

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Craps as a living? Ain't happening! Dice Control? Sometimes, but most times.....Random! During my trips, I saw EXACTLY what Poop described. Patrons pissing away money when they had No chance of winning!

    I even witnessed a few shooters that displayed a small measure of influence with the Dice......Negated by very bad betting, ie...Across, Inside, Iron Cross, Pressing, & NEVER putting ANYTHING in the Rack, etc.


    In my opinion, if you have ANY influence with the dice, 2 numbers ( Max) is the road to success. Anything more, & you've relinquished any edge that ya MIGHT have possessed. The Return of Investment is ridiculous, betting 3-6 numbers at a time!

    Other Shooters......I know this will open up Pandora's Box, but Mr. Hall is correct! If ya stand there, & bet on most shooters.....consider your bankroll.....Gone!

    Yep, other shooters have long rolls, repeaters, hit fire bets, All Talls, etc, but I would rather win, or lose my own money. Simply a matter of preference.

    Degree of difficulty for winning.....Very hard to consistently win, regardless of a person's skill level with the dice. Why? Simply because THOSE that THINK they possess MORE than MAYBE a 2% advantage with the dice are delusional.
    To make matters worse, this 2% skill level is BEFORE the house edge is even factored in! ( Just my opinion)

    After my most recent experience, ( even though I did quite well), I can truthfully say that I will be playing less at the Casinos than what I had originally planned. I gave it some very serious thought since my return, & it's just not worth it for me, because ya have to bet big to win big ( which I simply refuse to do anymore), or Ya have to grind with Casino winnings, which takes time ( which amounts to playing long session....something else I ain't gonna do). Thinking you're gonna step up to a table, & unleash monster hands, or profitable hands CONSISTENTLY, without having to stand there, & Grind, because ya just tossed a Brick ( PSO, or short hand) is a pipe Dream!

    It's just too much of a grind ( even playing short sessions), & I am just not very fond of the Tatics that the Casinos have instituted to ENSURE that guys that practice their tosses will have no more of a chance of winning than TDVegas's Monkey tossing the Dice.

    The Old School tables with the traditional felt layouts are a thing of the past, & with THAT being said......So is Old Top!

    When I get the urge to toss a few......The garage is only a few steps away! Yep......think I'm just gonna sit on these winnings, & spend it on the GrandKids!

    The wife wants a new car. Maybe I'll just say: "Fu**k the Casinos, & give her a nice Down Payment!

    Craps......The game ain't what it used to be! Fucking Bean Counters.......Gonna run away those that REALLY play the Most!
     
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  4. TR31

    TR31 Member

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    Here are some examples of AP's in Craps

    A) Live Craps
    - Play during Table game promo's like Hot Seat (or special drawings) where some random table player is picked and awarded free money. This was true at the Sienna in downtown Reno as they had few Table players so your odds of winning extra money was pretty high -- typically, I would be one out of 30 to 40 table players at the time of the promo.
    - Hustling match play's. A friend of mine typically gets $50 in match plays. One time, the casino made a mistake and sent him a coupon for $500 in match play. We decided to use Bacarrat due to lower house edge. He bets $500 & $500 match play on banker while I bet $750 on player. When Banker wins, he gets $1,000 less commission and player bet loses $750 so we net $250 less commission. If the hand was a tie, we ignore the hand and wait for next decision. If player won, I win $750 and he loses $500 cash & $500 match play coupon but we win net $250. So we had a lock of about $250 due to playing as a team. We could have done the same with live Craps. And yes, some people do weekly match play runs.

    B) Bubble Craps
    - Hustling free play.
    * Guy gets $100 a week in free play (or Air money that needs to cycle through a slot machine to be converted into cold, hard cash). Game of choice would be video poker or video Blackjack at about 97% payback or 97 cents on the dollar!!
    * Guy decides $100 a week in free play is not enough (that is over $5K per annum folks!) so he uses family plan and plays on wify's account (not recommended) and a couple of relative's accounts (again, not recommended) so he gets $400 a week (that's $20K per annum folks!)
    * some people use the extended family plan and play on 20 or so accounts (not recommended) but you get the drift (the reason the family plan or extended family plan is not recommended is because the casino can bar you but the biggest reason is once you are a "big fish", a host will lock onto you the moment you insert a player's club so once you get big, the family plan route doesn't work as well).
    - Hustling other things of value
    * casino offers free gifts that can be sold on eBay or Craigslist; btw gift cards like gas cards are very valuable. During one promo, the casino was giving away Apple products and iTunes cards and lots of AP's showed up tor that one so it was hard to get a seat.
    * converting comps into stuff that can be used at Gift shop. You see AP's who don't smoke buying cartons of cigarettes so you get the idea.

    Here is the bottom line -- many people try to find an angle to beat the casino and a game like Craps might be the vehicle. Casinos typically send free food or room offers, and/or match play to get players to come and gamble so why not turn the tables and play Craps when you get great offers or great promotions. Then rinse and repeat.
     
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  5. TDVegas, Sep 30, 2017

    TDVegas

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    You got that right.

    A person could come to Vegas and "live to play". He cannot play craps to live.

    Social Security?....not sure what it's paying these days. Maybe $15k? A person could supplement that with minor, minor income. Maybe another 8k working part time as a greeter at Home Depot or something. Add 2-4K per year thru some other means (IRA, trust, whatever)

    $28k per year.

    On Medicare. No family to support. No wife.

    Certainly no one is "living the Vegas life" with this income....but since this is Vegas, I could probably outline a recipe for someone to play craps every single day, get some comps, food credits, free play. Hell, I know a guy here who volunteers at a soup kitchen. Tells me these guys can eat a hearty meal and will be almost good for the day. There's your food bill...almost zero.

    No car, takes the bus, bums for rides, flip phone. Clothes come from the Salvation Army or some other charitable cause. Catholic charities will provide the needy with other basics.

    Shared apartment or Trailer or room to rent. There are many sleaze infested places in Vegas where a person can likely rent a room for real cheap.

    $1,000/month dedicated to craps.

    Sure. Why not? Unless you are an utterly stupid gambler, you won't lose the entire $1,000 and might even have some winning months. Then you get a little carry over.

    Then you have the other guys...the married ones, older, no kids to support anymore.

    The guys who are living here playing regularly are living and gambling off OTHER INCOME. That income would or could be a combination of SS and a pension. These guys are now 65+ and were part of the "defined pension" generation. They get a check every month. Guaranteed. Some more than others.

    Every month, they get their check....turn over part to the wife for household expenses and gamble with the rest. Some months they have extra money. Then again on the first of the month, another pension check arrives.

    Then they surprise their wives with a few casino chips or a nice comped dinner. "it's been a good month, hun"....the reality is its just leftover money that they haven't lost this particular month. I mean....they still need to show the wives they aren't complete degenerates.

    No one, I mean no one, is literally "playing craps for a living."

    Fucking bank on it...regardless of what James Hall and his delusi....mistaken belief mind says.

    Living to play?.....sure.

    The inability to play for a living has NOTHING to do with "not wanting to" or "family issues" or anything else The overriding reason is that it simply **cannot be done**.---Regular income off the craps table.

    Back to our regular programming.
     
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  6. von duck, Sep 30, 2017

    von duck

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    :confused::):cool:. CHA- CHING!
     
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  7. DeMango, Sep 30, 2017

    DeMango

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    Well TD, sounds like the life of Harley!
     
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  8. TDVegas, Sep 30, 2017

    TDVegas

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    Yup. Or delusional.
    Sure
    The reverse is true as well
    Few and far between.
    Yep.
    I honestly think these numbers are just made up shit. I've heard 3%...5%...15%...20% and more. Heavy isn't tracking students results. These are made up number, IMO.
    I certainly agree that people who come here better have their shit together and if they think they are going out 4-5 times a week to make bank...they better have a bus ticket back home or a damn fine trust fund.
    A healthy attitude about the realities of gambling had better be PRIORITY #1 for anyone coming here.

    Vegas is a great city. Definitely built for adults. If you have a level head and aren't swimming in the kool-aid...it's an enjoyable place to live and play.
     
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    Last edited: Oct 1, 2017
  9. TDVegas, Sep 30, 2017

    TDVegas

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    Never met him. Don't know him. Dont really know anything about him. Don't need to know him. I've got enough common sense and I've seen enough in Vegas to know that the ONLY people "living the Vegas life".....have other means to support the claim of "living the Vegas life"....

    It ain't happening on the craps tables.

    Is there anyone out there truly "living the Vegas life" and simply just playing craps? I guess anything is possible but IMO it is so far removed from reasonable thought...that I really don't give it much credence.

    I've been 100% consistent in this thought since I arrived January 4, 2014. Never wavering.

    If others believe it to be true...they are certainly entitled to that thought.
     
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  10. tabletop123, Sep 30, 2017

    tabletop123

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    One thing that I am certain of.....It is not wise to wager large amounts UNLESS you're playing with winnings! No matter the skill level with the influence thingy.....ya just don't know when that sang Seven is gonna show up ( right side betting).

    I have given serious thought of a skilled Di possessing a 2% advantage, & betting only the 6/8. Even THAT is no guarantee in the game of Craps.

    Any thoughts on a skilled shooter betting only minimum Passline with 1×odds, or a minimum passline bet, combined with a minimum place bet on the Sister number?
     
    #10
  11. tabletop123, Sep 30, 2017

    tabletop123

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    It absolutely kills me to say this, but TD...I reluctantly agree with you! I won't go into detail, but if it wasn't for a huge hit, I'd have come home a loser. What REALLY helped, was my decision to stick to betting only two numbers! I made the transition towards the end of my play, & it made a HUGE difference.

    Inside, Across, Even, Outside, etc is a pipe Dream ( long term)! There ain't a shooter alive that tosses good enough to,escape the gun-fire of the aforementioned bets! NO ONE!
     
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  12. Edward-ky, Oct 1, 2017

    Edward-ky

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    Did you forget about the James Hall gang?
     
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  13. badddoin, Oct 1, 2017

    badddoin

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    This is a pretty good post, CPS, thanks for posting it.

    I think a lot of the things mentioned are what's kept me from moving to a gambling town. I never really gave Vegas much consideration, but I was seriously contemplating a move to the gulf coast several years ago. There's a few decent driving gigs outta the port in Gulfport.

    I have a tendency to slip into degenerate gamblerism from time to time if I'm not careful. I haven't "busted-out" in a long time, and the thought of doing it at this stage is plenty unappealing.

    I was at the Palace Station a couple of years ago, and I ground out a small win. I was in the cashiers line, and it was a pretty long line, then I realized it was actually the paycheck cashing line. The cash-out line was the window to the right - it was empty.

    Work all week, bring my check to the casino, lose it, be broke till Friday, no thanks.
     
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  14. Mssthis1, Oct 1, 2017

    Mssthis1

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    You couldn't even make minimum wage per hour average. It's still dependent on when the six, eight and the sevens come. With only a 2% advantage you could have sequences well over 1000 rolls long where you're on the wrong side of the variance line because the six eight and sevens came at inopportune times. That's up to 10 hours of you actually shooting at a table where you are the only shooter. it's weeks of shooting at full tables.
     
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  15. TDVegas, Oct 1, 2017

    TDVegas

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    A grind play is the only thing I would try. It's not going to work, but I would do that before I would try and turn $100 into $1,000. Walk with $200 because I can guarantee if you try and push the positive $100 with bigger bets....hoping for $1,000...you're going to lose that +$100 a lot.

    I'm talking a regular player here....not once a month James Hall "taking a shot"
     
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  16. Craps Poopshoot, Oct 1, 2017

    Craps Poopshoot

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    Risk of ruin calculators are interesting and can give you some insight in to your chances of really winning ... or losing
     
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  17. TDVegas, Oct 1, 2017

    TDVegas

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    In the land of mistaken beliefs, Mesa, AZ...anything is possible. The mind can conjure up just about anything as it relates to gambling.

    In this case, it sounds like 4-5 of them are drinking from the same batch of kool-aid.

    No harm. They really aren't close enough to live table play for it to become or fall into a degenerate gambler issue. No, no...these are merely thoughts of the mind played out on practice tables in the great Southwest.

    Fun, fun, fun for the Mesa boys.
     
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  18. James Hall, Oct 1, 2017

    James Hall

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    LOL
     
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  19. James Hall, Oct 1, 2017

    James Hall

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    Another very negative post and a feeble attempt at being relevant
    Making absolute statements about things he cannot possibly know EVERYTHING about is way beyond silly
    To be able to know that NOBODY makes all or part of their living playing craps he would have to know a lot more about every craps person on the planet.
    He is probably making assumptions and relaying unfounded opinions based on his own failed attempts at the game

    At least now I know why TDV has such a negative outlook on life and the game of craps
    All these friends of his that he was referring to would be depressing just to be around and they should never be playing craps
    They are prime examples for the , "LEARN to WIN or QUIT" , scenario
    For him to say there are NO long term winners is just simply not true
    There were people on this planet who said , "NO HUMAN WILL EVER RUN A MILE IN UNDER FOUR MINUTES'
    For him to say no one does or ever will , proves who is DELUSIONAL , seeking AFFIRMATION and RELEVANCE
     
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  20. TDVegas, Oct 1, 2017

    TDVegas

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    Know about the person? No. Know about the game to "know it"? Yes.
    One either plays craps or not. There is no "attempt".
    These are more of your delusions. Trying to compare craps to an "outlook on life" is where your problem begins and ends, cowboy.;)
    Never said there were no long term winners. The game allows for it. No doubt. It's not you...but there could be some out there.:)
    Once again trying to compare a random game to sports of skill, endurance:rolleyes:. More of your delusions. You're entitled....but delusional. No harm. Oops. Mistaken belief.
    Long term winner? I've already stated it is possible.:D

    It's just not you or any of the Mesa Mafia boys.
     
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    Last edited: Oct 1, 2017