Tracking Multiple Trends

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by The Midnight Skulker, Apr 12, 2018.

  1. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 12, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,454
    Likes Received:
    2,889
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    I am spinning this thread off The Math For Beating Gambling Is Here thread because I have jumped on Liman's bandwagon and stopped posting there.
    An interesting point. I suggest most players put the cart before the horse. They start with a betting strategy and look for a trent that can be taken be exploited by that strategy. Take the Can't Lose strategy, where the player makes a Don't bet, then places the point that it establishes, balancing the amounts to guarantee a profit whether the point makes or misses. Such a player will look for a trend without comeout 7s and 11s.

    Suppose instead a player approaches a table with a "bag of tricks", tries to spot any trend, then picks the appropriate trick to exploit it. (I get the impression that this is the approach The Strategy uses.) Obviously the perceived trend must continue for the trick to work, but could there not be more than one trend in progress?
    What if a Can't Lose player also notices that at least one 8 is rolled before the Line point is resolved? Clearly that trend could also be exploited (if it continues).

    So the $64,000 question becomes, Without a computer what trends should a player look for?
     
    #1
    yacraps likes this.

  2. Liman

    Liman Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    7,209
    Likes Received:
    5,196
    Trends are history
    It's a useless strategy to claim to identify a trend
    I'm sure the casino loves these kind of bettors
     
    #2
  3. Dave G Ct, Apr 12, 2018

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2015
    Messages:
    6,195
    Likes Received:
    622
    Gender:
    Male
    Liman
    Trends dominate in Gambling.Toss a coin 15 times You will not see H- T - H- T - T-:H .More likely see H- H-H - T-T or something similiar.So bet into it - no guarantee but the fact that you will see groupings.
     
    #3
  4. von duck, Apr 12, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    6,251
    Likes Received:
    1,813
    Gender:
    Male
    Thank you Dave, for confirming our suspicions. :)
     
    #4

  5. Liman

    Liman Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    7,209
    Likes Received:
    5,196
    Trends are discussions of an event that took place previous to the present moment
    Anyone who wants to bet on what they saw or recorded for one minute or 6 days and then bet accordingly to what they think will happen will do no better or worse than a first time player who sticks to a place or come bet
     
    #5
    yacraps likes this.
  6. von duck, Apr 12, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    6,251
    Likes Received:
    1,813
    Gender:
    Male
    OK people, you heard it hear first, there will be no more "trends" as predicted by our own "Nostra-Liman" Craps "GURU".:) Ya know, I'll bet Nostradamus would have been a good trend player.:D
     
    #6
  7. von duck, Apr 12, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    6,251
    Likes Received:
    1,813
    Gender:
    Male
    I think I will witness a "trend" sometime tomorrow. This disproves your assumptions. Before we can discuss trends, we must first find a definition of "trend" that we all agree on. This is so we know we are all talking about the same thing. So far, all we know is that a "trend" is something that has already happened, and should not be discussed. Therefore I assume, we should only talk about things which haven't happen yet...........Anybody got any good stories about something that hasn't yet happened to them?.........anybody?........hello........hellooooo .........????
     
    #7
  8. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 12, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,454
    Likes Received:
    2,889
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    I see my point -- If you believe trends offer you some advantage why limit your search to just one? -- has been missed. :oops: What was I thinking?
     
    #8
    yacraps likes this.
  9. Mssthis1, Apr 12, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Messages:
    1,469
    Likes Received:
    1,967
    The ones I watch for are comeout sevens. You have to get lucky and catch a lot of comeout sevens to have a shot at long rolls. If comeout sevens are plentiful I'll consider laying the 5 or 9 or even the 6 or 8 if they have not been showing up.

    I also watch for horn number clusters. Since I don't bet in the middle, I'll lay off the box numbers a little if the short hands 7 rolls or less, are loaded with horn numbers.

    I'm looking for 2 box numbers before a seven and they're hard to come by when you start seeing rolls like 10,3,11,12,8,7
     
    #9
    TDVegas likes this.

  10. Liman

    Liman Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    7,209
    Likes Received:
    5,196
    had to edit, no reason to respond to trolls.
    trends are useless on craps tables, they only look good on paper after the roll is over.
     
    #10

  11. Liman

    Liman Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    7,209
    Likes Received:
    5,196
    again, had to edit, its a waste of time trying to get anything intelligent or worth discussing with the trolls like von duck or hall. just a waste of fucking time.
     
    #11
    FredP likes this.
  12. Freddyy, Apr 12, 2018

    Freddyy

    Freddyy Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2016
    Messages:
    509
    Likes Received:
    231
    Gender:
    Male
    When I see rolls like that (10,3,11,12,8,7) I grab my chips and get out. Not a good day.
     
    #12
  13. von duck, Apr 12, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    6,251
    Likes Received:
    1,813
    Gender:
    Male
    You got a like from MsPee. :D What do you expect on a craps forum, a bunch of intellectual geniuses? Lighten up, and you might even get a like from Me. :) You were already indicating that you did not want to discuss it, I was just milking you for one more post. :D
     
    #13
  14. basicstrategy777, Apr 12, 2018

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    7,960
    Likes Received:
    6,211
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    Math proves trends exist, and can determine short ones and long ones and how often they occur.

    We know they exist and we know they start with a few wins in a row......

    What's the problem ?

    777
     
    #14
    yacraps likes this.
  15. von duck, Apr 12, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    6,251
    Likes Received:
    1,813
    Gender:
    Male
    No problem, no problem man, put the gun away, we don't want any trouble. Whatever you say man. :D
     
    #15
  16. The Midnight Skulker, Apr 12, 2018

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    3,454
    Likes Received:
    2,889
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    If you're betting strictly front side I certainly cannot fault you for packing up after that sequence. The question I was asking, however, is what a player with a large number of strategies at his/her disposal might look for before selecting one of them to use (or bailing). I claim no expertise at charting, in fact I have never done it with pencil and paper, but given the sequence 10,3,11,12,8,7 I can think of the following strategies I might use should the trends they exploit continue.
    • See a horn, bet a horn.
    • Lay the point if it hasn't made in four rolls.
    • Section 8 after a point is established, one hit and down.
    That is not to say that on the next shooter I would plunk down a bundle on 6 and 8 working and/or another bundle on the horn on roll #3 (the yo) and/or lay 10 for another bundle on roll #6 (the 7-out), but those are the trends I would be looking for.

    As an aside I would also think that any trend not attributable to variance is more likely to be caused by a player than by the gaming equipment. Hence charting by shooter, while more trouble than charting the table as a whole, would seem to yield more accurate results if charting is of any use.
     
    #16
    yacraps likes this.
  17. Onautopilot, Apr 12, 2018

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,542
    Gender:
    Male
    That's called "variance".....a common event in random chance games!
     
    #17
    yacraps likes this.
  18. Mssthis1, Apr 12, 2018

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2016
    Messages:
    1,469
    Likes Received:
    1,967
    if you ask 100 different people to define the advantages of charting you will get 100 different answers.

    I feel that a chart of say the last 50 rolls has little real value. If something really weird like 40 out of the last 50 rolls were non field I'd probably toss out a field bet "just in case"

    I have charted over 4000 rolls on my favorite bubble, broken down into 720 roll segments since that is bonetrackers max. I have found useable information in those samples. The vast majority of the time the numbers which were short in the previous book will catch up and the numbers that had an abundance in the previous book will be short.

    Not always though. Sevens have been less than expected for the past 4 books of 720 and hard 10's have been significantly short for the past 3 books.

    The number of sevens in 4 rolls or less has been pretty much flip flopping between above random and less than random. That is the important number for me since I prefer to play 2 hits and regress. I use that number from all the previous sessions to adjust my base bet size and try to ignore what happens during the current session.
     
    #18
  19. von duck, Apr 12, 2018

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    6,251
    Likes Received:
    1,813
    Gender:
    Male
    :cool:
     
    #19
  20. BuckShot, Apr 12, 2018

    BuckShot

    BuckShot Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2018
    Messages:
    276
    Likes Received:
    116
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Niagara Falls, Ontario Canada
    TRENDS are based on history. Yes, correct. But trends can also be
    *Shooter at spot 1 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 2 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 3 rolled a ton of 8's and was a dice setter
    *Shooter at spot 4 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 5 rolled a ton of 4's & 9's and was a dice setter
    *Shooter at spot 6 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 7 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 8 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 9 rolled a ton of 6's & 8's and was a dice setter
    *Shooter at spot 10 rolled a ton of 6's & 8's and was a dice setter
    *Shooter at spot 11 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 12 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 13 PSO
    *Shooter at spot 14 rolled a ton of 9's & 10's and was a dice setter

    Second round here is what you do.
    *Shooter at spot 1 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 2 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 3 BET 8's
    *Shooter at spot 4 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 5 BET 4's & 9's
    *Shooter at spot 6 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 7 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 8 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 9 BET 6's & 8's
    *Shooter at spot 10 BET 6's & 8's
    *Shooter at spot 11 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 12 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 13 Don't Bet
    *Shooter at spot 14 BET 9's & 10's

    No math needed. Just keep a visual chart on the shooters and BET on the trends of what the shooters are rolling.
     
    #20
    yacraps likes this.