The Worst in 44 Years

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by betwthelines, May 14, 2016.

  1. The Midnight Skulker, May 24, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    At the risk of beating a horse that has died a thousand deaths already I will mention a thought I had a few days ago...and not just because I'm surprised I remember something that happened that long ago. :confused: Consider the odds bet, either side. With fair dice the odds bet gives neither the house nor the player an advantage; both sides are expected to break even. Introduce a bias, any bias, and while I have not run an exhaustive analysis of all possibilities -- actually I haven't run any analysis -- I would wager a sizable sum that there would be at least one box number that would be expected to hit or miss more frequently than with unbiased dice, thereby making the odds on the appropriate side, taken or laid, player positive. Would a casino, particularly one offering a high odds multiple, really want to create such a situation?
     
    #101
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  2. twodicebilly, May 24, 2016

    twodicebilly

    twodicebilly Member

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    Harley

    Two months ago we charted at table at Keshena, there were 27 out of 28 seven outs
    were 6-1......

    At Green Bay there is a 12 footer with ATS bet, we did not actually chart it, but
    between Dave and I we figured there was a 2 every 180 rolls or so. I have never
    this year seen the small side of that bet hit. There are lots of talls hit. There are a
    ton of 3,s , Friday night we figured there were over 600 rolls with no 2 and then
    there were 3 of them in 5 rolls. go figure.

    twodicebilly
     
    #102
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  3. Harley, May 24, 2016

    Harley

    Harley Member

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    twodicebilly - we see the same on several of tables in Vegas - the lack of the Aces .... hitting half of the ATS is no big skin off the casino's hide - people that hit half will try more than 35 times usually to get that one 35 to 1 payoff - it's the All that the casinos dread

    .... and most big casinos know exactly what dice to put on the table to avoid the ATS payoff - they have tons of statistical data on which dice produce better payoffs .... you think a corporate casino is going to ignore certain data in today's mega-information world that can lead to more profit
     
    #103
  4. eagleeye2, May 25, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    Harley,

    I repeat my Post # 19 From this thread, as it continues to APPLY!


    Harley,

    100% of one 7 combination is excessive, but could happen. I am a believer that some of the Dice Manufacturers can Produce Dice that Favor any # they choose.

    I am of the firm Belief that this is accomplished by Preferential Cooling the Square Extrusion, Creating Differential Density, to which they can Imprint any of the 6 #'s they wish. Matching #'s adding to 7, makes this a deadly combination against the player, producing 7's at exceptionally high rates & devastating the players bankroll.

    Casino's will Kill the Golden Goose of Craps, if they continue with the Biased Dice Gig, which they currently are doing!

    eagleeye2
     
    #104
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  5. FredP

    FredP Member

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    I have forgotten more mathematics than you'll ever know.
    Adios.
     
    #105
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  6. wonko33, May 25, 2016

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    Devil's advocate is that people would not know hence would not take advantage of it. People here talk about detecting the bias but they really can't, not with the amount of rolls they track.
    They suspect bias and act on it (why not? there are a lot of good basic bets you can choose to make) but to really take advantage of this you would need inside info, maybe a few swiped dice to assess the level of bias and elaborate the best strategy.

    So I don't think it would be a huge risk for the casino
     
    #106
  7. AdvantageCrapsPlayer, May 25, 2016

    AdvantageCrapsPlayer

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    Wow, I feel for ya bro. Was curious to see if you took down the roll data?

    ALao was this Aria at City Center?

    The easiest way is to take roll data is to grab a few baccarat cards and a few dual colored pens. Use the 1-12 part of the card and use all EVEN rows for your roll data. Use ODD rows to put you arrow pointing to the CO rolls. 2,3,11,12,7 or any box number

    From there write all sevens in red. Take a snapshot of your session and post it. At least we can help you find out where the paying side of the table would be for future use. Typically if dice that bad it is the whole case.

    Sorry but when you said 16 straight DP TrendSetterCrap players just got drew
    Wood. . Lol. BC That's 8 straight winners I see and then 1 loss. Do a net of 7

    Can you send roll data or get future roll data?

    Thx.
     
    #107
  8. AdvantageCrapsPlayer, May 25, 2016

    AdvantageCrapsPlayer

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    Have you ever recorded 144-180 consecutive rolls on on of those Tribal Casinos? If so do you have the roll data?

    Maybe track next time out? I'd like to analyze it.

    Thanks CPS
     
    #108
  9. AdvantageCrapsPlayer, May 25, 2016

    AdvantageCrapsPlayer

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    Totally agree. At least for what TSC is looking for. I want the chops, the small runs, the big runs etc. I want number to take a hike for 20-30 minutes before returning. If a person is stupid enough to bet a number that hasn't rolled in 20-30 minutes than they should be just giving their $!! Away to the needy. It would be better served. I love the clumps of variance of a dominant number coming back as well.
     
    #109
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  10. AdvantageCrapsPlayer, May 25, 2016

    AdvantageCrapsPlayer

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    How do you know you weren't grabbing the same two 6-1 dice or the same 3 4-3 dice?

    Lol
     
    #110
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  11. Harley, May 25, 2016

    Harley

    Harley Member

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    The Midnight Skulker - you assume every craps player is as observant and math-minded as you ....

    The casinos bank on the fact that over 95% of their players do not know anything beyond the basic math of the game ... In fact, the casinos do all they can by filling you full of alcohol, through deception and distractions to keep you off your math game

    Otherwise, why would they still offer a very beatable game like BlackJack in it's very basic form - they rarely do .... Likewise with Craps

    Just because you or AdvantageCrapsPlayer or I can observe a bias doesn't mean most casual players can
     
    #111
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  12. TDVegas, May 25, 2016

    TDVegas

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    He used his Superman Harley eyesight. A lot like Superman. Able to leap tall buildings and detect an out of place nuclei in the formula make up for the dice.

    The better question is what the hell is he doing frequenting casinos that are engaging in fraudulent behavior and trying to rip off players?

    He's been in Vegas how long now and has noted and tracked the legit casinos and the not legit. What the F is he doing walking thru the doors of the corrupt casino? AND playing???....is the better question.
     
    #112
  13. Harley, May 25, 2016

    Harley

    Harley Member

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    The odds of grabbing the exact same dice is like 5% with a stick of 5 dice ... I am posting while driving, so my math may be off a little

    Don't Do Math and Drive ....
     
    #113
  14. wonko33, May 25, 2016

    wonko33

    wonko33 Member

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    10%.... not driving ;)
     
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  15. Craps Poopshoot, May 25, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    I have recorded over 700 rolls at the Tribal casinos. Ill send you the data in a private message.
     
    #115
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  16. The Midnight Skulker, May 25, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

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    Let me wager a somewhat less sizable sum and claim that all box numbers would be affected. Seems logical that if the Devil is being summoned, which we seem to be assuming is the purpose of using biased dice, then the probability of making any point would be reduced.

    Back when I was a break-in player odds were a closely guarded secret. Not so today. [expletive deleted], they're advertised! Granted: most players are front-siders; hence reducing the probability of points making would seem to enhance the house's overall advantage. OTOH wrong-siders tend to be more savvy, hence more likely to pick up on such a bias and exploit it.

    I agree with you guys: geniuses like us are in the minority. Still, as a casino Dumas (pronounced "DUMB ass") I would much prefer to use fair dice that smart consultants assert give me a known advantage rather than trust players to be as ignorant as I am, thereby introducing the potential for a disaster I can't blame someone else for. (Come to think of it, though, I may be overestimating my ability to impersonate Dumas.)
     
    #116

  17. 7uwin

    7uwin Member

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    Charting 180 rolls? Charting 600 rolls?........good grief....

    there's an old saying "craps can drive you insane trying to figure out a way to beat it"

    If you're standing at a craps table charting hundreds and hundreds of rolls you may be prime for psychoanalysis.
     
    #117
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  18. Craps Poopshoot, May 25, 2016

    Craps Poopshoot

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    I charted the Tribal dice because I needed to know if they where cheating me by using 'bad dice'. Its the only casino within a reasonable driving range so the info was critical for my decision on how to play.

    Sure, it sounds crazy - though what I was seeing happening on the table was crazy too. When you see rolls like: 2,12,12,3,4,11,2 over and over - you wonder "AM I losing it, or are the dice wonky?"

    Investigation was needed, answers where found.
     
    #118
  19. eagleeye2, May 25, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

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    #119
  20. TDVegas, May 25, 2016

    TDVegas

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    Ok, understood. Any person would want to know if they were being cheated.
    You are kidding, right? You are being ripped off by a tribal casino using bad dice and you want to go back and try and figure out "how to play"..?

    Is your argument the fabled "the casino is cheating me"....
    OK, why are you going back there?

    answer..."it's the only game in town"
    ???????
     
    #120