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Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by superrick, Dec 23, 2016.
Merry Christmas Wizard!
Merry Christmas to you and yours as well. Just so ya know, I am a for real Wizard! My gig is the use of potions. Basicstrategy777 gave me some advanced training on magic. Math is forbidden in the recipes. Only chants are recognized. The boxman frowns on the use of potions being poured on the dice, but I have conjured up a hand lotion that works just fine. None are the wiser when I use it. These potions also have MEMORY!
Funny how things work. 2 weeks ago my Braun razor kicked the bucket....
Somehow Santa knows...oh, he knows...
And merry Christmas to you and yours too.
I think it really depends on what you qualify as a "living".
As time has gone on, I have found that MOST (not all, MOST) times at a table, I can easily whip out to 100 to 200 up. (just the nature of my level of play). In a place like vegas, with real discipline, it would not be crazy to think that you could do that on a daily basis.
For my upcoming trip, I am going to try something I always say I am going to do, but never end up doing...I am going to start downtown and try to hit each table for a hundred and move along. Have to develop a few rules for myself to not get bogged down, but I will have the free time pre-superbowl, so I am going to give it a go.
Is craps a loser long term? Yep, so is every other game sans an edge like uncontrolled card counting. I think you could make a similar living at poker, I am sure many people do, but it is a bit of a grind too.
There is no "grind" play when you are being paid less than fair value on every winning bet and losing in total every losing bet.
The casino can "grind" out a living....in fact they do. That's because they hold the edge. Unless you can flip house edge upside down...there is no way to ensure regular money.
Short or long term...each winning bet is paid less than fair value. There are means and methods to ensure high winning percentages but those involve martingale plays where the expectation is an eventual catastrophic loss.
If you feel you can ensure wins....I'll give you an open mind. Let me watch 20 of your sessions while you are here in Vegas. If you after 20 sessions...you have a nice profit, I'll be more than glad to report your success---also buy you a steak dinner. All I need to witness is buy in amount and cash out amount. Beyond that I leave you alone to play the game.
Now, being net ahead by years end? A tough craps type player utilizing come bets with odds has chipped house edge down to its lowest level. With a bit of luck...he can be ahead. He's not going to ensure regular wins...but he's playing this game as close to zero sum as you can get. Just a bit of luck is what he needs.
Place bettors utilizing 4-5-9-10 and other higher house edge bets...I give them very little chance to be net ahead after a year. Certainly no way are they making regular bank.
Anybody placing 4,5,9 and ten is a fool. Those needed to be bought with vig on a win.
Yeah...buy is the way to go. I sometimes use place generically....meaning wager.
I did this last summer, playing a Don't system I developed, and won at every table I played at. I don't use a players club card either, cause there is no point..you will get nothing.
Pooper: Was this on your shooting from the don'ts or betting dark on bad shooters? If the latter, would love to hear your system!
Well, the system is Patience and Discipline. Perhaps 1 in 1000 have a clue as to how to shoot the dice, and if I am on the table with such a shooter I don't make any bets. It is not to say that they will have a good roll, it is just that they may get a few more repeaters than anyone else, and that does not work for me.
What I look for is tables where the shooters will roll 6 or 7 rolls with no repeaters, and better if there are craps rolls with in those rolls. There are lots casinos and tables in Las Vegas, so I simply go shopping for a table that suits my needs.
SuperRick says that laying odds on the Don'ts is Stupid. I agree. Making Lay bets is equally stupid.
I also don't let a shooter beat me twice. If they knock off a bet, it is likely they will knock it off again.
Lots of the times I just watch the game play with no bets in action.
I use the Don'ts method that is outlined in The Dice Doctor. He says it is his main method of play for over 50 years. So far, the method had done well for me - though it is a grind and it takes Patience and Discipline to play it. Most Craps dealers give me the nod of approval when they see me play like this, most players see my chips slowly increase while theirs quickly vanishes.
I have some slight alterations for The Dice Doctor Don'ts play based on buy-in, and the trend of the dice. It is quite possible to lose with this method, and I have a few times. Sometimes the dice that appear cold and choppy suddenly heat up, and repeaters can hurt. So, you have to know when to leave a table when you are the don'ts player.
A switch player, one who plays whatever way the table is going, sometimes can get the honey, though most often gets stung TWICE!
Like I said, there are LOTS of casinos in Las Vegas and LOTS OF TABLES. If one is not going your way, find another. That is also the same advice I give about women too!
Grafstein states repeatedly throughout his book that laying up to maximum odds on your Don't bet is the BEST bet on the table, so in this sense you and SR are in disagreement with him.
That is a fact!
Sam in his basic don'ts play does not lay the odds. In his TRUE COUNT system he lays max odds, however he cites that it is an expensive method of play.
Odds for the Do's and the Don'ts is just increasing volatility.
However, if the dice are rolling your way and you are winning, then laying odds may become an option.
Also if, as a DI, you can avoid the point (anti snipe) while increasing the 7, you enter perfect world casino!
There are a few casinos where I can set the on the comeout roll and hit a craps or the 4 or 10. Then I set the and hit the seven. However, this is only when the dice are so cold at a few casinos that I can do this! Most othertimes I just rely on the randomness of the dice.
If you are a DI, then shoot the seven! It is really the only way to play...that is if you are a DI.