The Math of Crapless Craps

Discussion in 'Other Casino Games' started by KokomoJoe4, Jan 18, 2020.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Jan 18, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    shows the game should be called Craps for Suckers.

    All numbers except seven are potential points. One very good thing in the game: Odds coming out show 6 ways to win, no ways to lose. Stop the game right there an I'm all over it, but unfortunately, we have other rules.

    Just by removing the winner eleven at come out, we reduce expected come out winners from 22.2% of the time down to 16.7%, and this changes the math from -1.4% for craps down to -5.4% for crapless. With this type of house advantage, it is not even possible for the game to offer any Don't bets.

    The Don't bettor would be at such a strong advantage laying against the outsides, that the house would pay him essentially nothing on the winner. For example, Lay bet, no snakeyes. In a fair game,which we do not have in the casino, I would lay $60 to win $10. Now since the casino would need not only its vig, and since this needs to be more than 5% = 50 cents, let's call it $1, but they would need to account for the fact that the Lay bettor would expect to win 5 of his six bets, so we need to short him even more on these wins.

    Ultimately, they would have to be at something like paying $7 or $8 on the winner 2/12 for the $60 lay bettor, who will win almost all of his wagers.

    Sure the odds payout on the outsides looks incredible playing Do, but a quick look at crapless doesn't do much for me.
     
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  2. Mssthis1, Jan 18, 2020

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    My main issue with crapless is that the volatility and variance increase exponentially and it's much harder to catch a long roll that was created thanks to comeout sevens. Roll a 2/3/11/or 12 and the next roll,rolls are point cycle instead of another comeout.

    I do play it on occasion if it's an empty table. I make place bets on the regular numbers and avoid the 2,3,11,12. If one of those is set as the point I reduce my odds or don't take any odds because IMO, it doesn't take much negative variance to kill the bankroll on a crapless game.

    Wouldn't work well at all for the way you play.
     
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  3. von duck, Jan 18, 2020

    von duck

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    It doesn't work for the way anybody plays. :confused: Kind of like the bubble, in that respect. :cool:
     
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  4. DeMango, Jan 18, 2020

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    Just learn to influence more 6’s in your toss. Then bet 8-12.
     
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  5. von duck, Jan 18, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    How many tables have you closed down, using the "awesome" strategy? :cool:
     
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  6. random_roller, Jan 19, 2020

    random_roller

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    I'll play crapless craps once in a while when I'm in Council Bluffs at night. It's usually a $5 table. Yes, the 2, 3, 11 & 12 are potential point numbers, but they're also not come out losers (2, 3 & 12) or winners (11). That's 4 less losers and 2 less winners on the come out compared with traditional craps, making the PL bettor a 6-0 favorite on that roll. And on a percentage basis, 6-0 is better than 8-4.

    So let's say the shooter rolls an 11 on the come out. Bummer, because there is no natural payoff and the point is a tough number to hit. At that point, it's place & buy betting time. The 2, 3 and 12 are tough numbers to hit, but buying any of those numbers is better than buying the 4 or 10 from a HE perspective, assuming proper betting. Getting paid 6:1 or 3:1 is nice, certainly better than 2:1. Place betting has the same HE for the respective numbers as traditional craps.

    So, yes, crapless is a much worse game (from a HE perspective) for PL & Come bettors, but if you're at the crapless table and the 2s & 12s start hitting...
     
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  7. Mssthis1, Jan 20, 2020

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    Hi Random: That's the same place I usually play crapless. For whatever reason that table is usually not that busy and the dealers in general are excellent.

    I'll play the outsides on occasion but recently I've had things on the wish list that I deem more important than gambling. Because of that, I've been less apt to risk money. I usually buy at green chip level so a little negative variance can get expensive quick.

    On the positive side I hit a $10, 12 with $100 odds there once, and had $1/$10 on it for the dealers. That was sweet.
     
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  8. random_roller, Jan 20, 2020

    random_roller

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    Agree the craps dealers at Horseshoe Council Bluffs have generally been excellent when I've played there. And when you hit the extreme outside numbers on a crapless table with big odds, that is a great feeling.

    If memory serves, we both like the tables at the nearby Ameristar, too. Unfortunately, Council Bluffs is a bit of a drive for me. With the Huskers sometimes playing worse than my intramural football team (which, admittedly, was loaded) the past 10 years, there isn't much incentive for me to head out that way. Well, perhaps Runza...

    Spending your money on non-gambling priorities is a good thing. Better for the economy, too.
     
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  9. von duck, Jan 21, 2020

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    "For whatever reason"? :confused: That table is usually NOT busy, for a very good reason. Nobody, should EVER play the crapless game. Let the crapless table "masterbate". :cool:
     
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  10. KokomoJoe4, Jan 27, 2020

    KokomoJoe4

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    If the house paid you $7 for the winner laying $60 behind the 2 or 12, it shows a 4.3% house edge.

    Would this be a popular bet if it was offered?
     
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  11. Mssthis1, Jan 27, 2020

    Mssthis1

    Mssthis1 Member

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    I doubt if it would be popular. $9 would be the proper payout with $1 vig. Win $9 X 6 = $54. Lose once, -$60 = a $6 loss per every seven attempts.

    I don't even like laying the 4 or 10 because you have to win 3 times to get ahead from one loss. 2 wins and you're still down the vig.

    I'd rather lay the 6 or 8 even though the HA is higher. Who knows, they may be using 6/1 biased dice which would slaughter a 4/10 lay better.;)
     
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  12. DeMango, Jan 27, 2020

    DeMango

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    Correct by mss, laying $120 on 2/12 would pay $19. Anybody do the math on that one? While you are at it figure lay $180 to win $29. Should be a reasonable figure.
     
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