THE HOLY GRAIL for CRAPS PLAYERS

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by SevenOut, Sep 3, 2013.

  1. SevenOut, Sep 3, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    2: 1-1
    3: 2-1, 1-2
    4: 1-3, 3-1, 2-2
    5: 1-4, 4-1, 2-3, 3-2
    6: 1-5, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, 3-3
    7: 1-6, 6-1, 2-5, 5-2, 3-4, 4-3
    8: 2-6, 6-2, 3-5, 5-3, 4-4
    9: 3-6, 6-3, 4-5, 5-4
    10: 4-6, 6-4, 5-5
    11: 5-6, 6-5
    12: 6-6

    The above are THE 36 combinations a pair of six sided dice can be thrown (6 times 6 for a total of 36).

    If you have a Six on top, the bottom will show an... Eight. Every time, every day for eternity.
    If you have a Double Ace on top... a Double Six on the bottom.
    If you have a Hard Eight on top... a Hard Six will be on the bottom.
    The opposite side of each and every "honest" die will add up to SEVEN. Pick up one die and... presto... better be a Seven!
    Just check it out and you will quickly grasp this!

    When you want to figure what "correct odds" are, you need to compare the dice total you want against your losing dice totals.

    For the Pass Line bettor... example a 6. A six can be thrown 5 ways. A seven can be thrown 6 ways. Thus the payout is 6 to 5. Correct odds. For a Don't Pass bettor... it is reversed. You bet 6 to win 5, as there are five ways to LOSE. You always find YOUR number of combinations to WIN and put those against the number of combinations to LOSE.

    Now for fun. You are playing $1 on the Hard Eight. The table pays 9 to 1 or 10 for 1, so a $1 bet wins $9. What are the correct odds? What is the House Percentage?

    Many new Craps Players are at first, overwhelmed with all of the numbers on a Craps layout. I will take the small Craps layout and fold it into HALF an put a ruler between the 6 and 8. This ruler represents the 7. The left side 4, 5 & 6 has the exact same odds as the 8, 9 & 10, mirror image. Same with the 2 & 12, 3 & 11... Take the 4, 5 & 6, subtract 1 from each to a 7 minus one, which becomes 6. Example: 7-1= 6 TO 4-1=3 for odds of 6 TO 3, reduced to 2 to 1 which is correct ODDS for the 4 and the 10. Again, take 7-1= 6 TO 6-1= 5 which is 6 to 5, which is correct odds for the 6. The "mirror" image to the 4, 5 & 6 are the 8, 9 & 10 (but you cannot use the simple math to get an immediate ODDS for those, just use the left side of the cloth. Once you feel comfortable with this concept of understanding ODDS, you are on your way!


    A personal note:

    If no one cares about this aspect of the basic REAL mathematics of Craps, I will have no further additions to this Topic. But, if you really want to get quizzed and have a bit of fun... answer this very basic Hardway question and then ask one of your own for... comment.

    I, among all posters on this Forum, understands that being a beginner can be intimidating among the close scrutiny of more experienced players. If you are intimidated by the posters on the Forum... the pressure at a live table can be severe. You think everyone is staring at you... and they are not. The other players are more concerned with THEIR chips and game. Once YOU understand the game from the view of a PLAYER and I can later add... view of a DEALER... we all can progress. I would suggest, ever so slightly, that one of our resident current Craps Dealers put up a New Topic for Beginner Craps as the Holy Grail of Craps Dealers. You and I know who you are...

    I feel I am being your friend and not critic, which is not my plan. This New Topic is for newbie, beginner and advanced players. I cannot help on Dice Control as it is not in my Holy Grail of Craps, but someone in that area of Craps might want to begin the Holy Grail of Craps Dice Control or Influence.
     
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  2. Dave73, Sep 7, 2013

    Dave73

    Dave73 Member

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    Hard 8
    One way to win, 10 ways to lose (any of the 6 combinations that make seven, plus the 4 easy eight combinations)

    True odds 10 to 1
    Payout 9 to 1
    HA = 9.09 (10-9)/(10+1)

    Now, my question. What is the House Advantage on the Iron Cross for a single roll (since the field is a one roll bet)? Lets do the Iron Cross at the minimum bet on a $5 table. The Field pays double on a 2 and triple on a 12. Would the HA be better or worse if you could BUY the 5 at $20 with a vig only on the win and PLACE the 6/8 for $24 with $20 in the Field?
     
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  3. SevenOut, Sep 7, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    ************
    You cannot get much better than that 9.09% or 9 1/11%. In Australia they were using 10 TO 1 payouts, which will never come to the US.

    I think defining an "Iron Cross" for a single roll would get some working on this question. I have never heard of an Iron Cross as I am from the old school of Craps. Being generous on the 3x for a 12 is going to narrow the House Advantage between the two and the winning vig on the 5... my head hurts just trying to repeat this.

    Hardway bets are easier to work with, as I like them, so I am asking a couple of John Scarne questions. The question may seem simple, but the answers could vary considerably.

    (1) What are the Odds of throwing a Hardway on the Come Out roll? And why? (edited- this is worded to throw you off!)

    (2) Which easier to roll... a Hard 8 or a Hard 4? And why? (edited- if you are throwing 8's to hit it hard 8 OR throwing ONLY 4's to throw it hard 4, "which is easier to achieve/hit as a hardway? (Dave73 had the old question answered but is carrying "ONE" error as a reason in statistics...)
     
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  4. Dave73, Sep 7, 2013

    Dave73

    Dave73 Member

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    Any Hardway on the CO?
    4/36= 1/8
    This is the chance of throwing a hardway on any roll. It doesnt matter if its the CO or not, the dice dont care.

    Which is harder to throw, a Hard 4 or a Hard 8?
    They are the same, 1/36. A hard 8 pays more than a hard 4 because there are more ways to lose with the hard 8, but they are just as likely to be thrown. There is only one combination for each of the 36 possible outcomes.
     
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  5. SevenOut, Sep 7, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    **********

    Dave, could you explain the Iron Cross play? I am not familiar with it. I am sure there are others that need to understand what it is.

    The answer to question two is close, but not close enough. It will be... closer... if you catch the common error in your first answer.

    The Come Out answer is wrong.
     
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  6. Dave73, Sep 7, 2013

    Dave73

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    The 4/36 is right but my reduction was wrong. It's 1/9.

    The iron cross is a grind type of betting system that wins something on every roll that is not a 7.

    You place the 5 for $5, the 6&8 for $6, then $5 on the Field
     
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  7. DarkSiderRidah, Sep 7, 2013

    DarkSiderRidah

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    SevenOut,

    An Iron Cross = Placing bets on 4 specific positions on the layout. Place bets on 5, 6, 8, & a Field Bet.

    It's done after the point is established. You win on every roll except 7.

    That's all.

    -DSR

     
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  8. SevenOut, Sep 7, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    DSR and Dave73. Thanks for the Iron Cross definition. Seen it in action and never knew it had a name.

    Dave73. Give us a value on the Vig on your $20- 5 ($1?) payoff versus a $21 Place Bet, and describe why you mentioned... on paying the vig only on a win versus, paying the vig up front, as I am use to seeing on the 4 and 10 buys of $25. Remember this is the Beginner Craps and we are all trying to get an opportunity to work this one out. Hearing the vig paid up front or paid after a win... is a major concession with the Iron Cross action, I believe... IF I were buying the 4 and/or 10 with significant bets. This is going to be interesting. I have never seen anyone Buy an inside number for minimal bets. A $25 4 or 10, paying a $1 vig on a WINNER the gain is $4 after deducting the $1 vig from the additional $5 win, which amounts to a good bet.

    For Dave73. I am trying to figure out how to let others jump in on the initial questions, that you responded to and need yours and some other member's input as to closing "debate" over an initial question/answer session. As soon as we can all figure out once an answer is given, and the person asking the question obviously knows, or thinks that his answer is correct, and makes says the "current" answer has an error or not correct... how long should we give others to work on it as far as time. Or just let it run its course until someone figures it out? Like your question that will be a good example in the works.

    I am NOT using the Scarne on Dice (1945 edition) as the Craps layouts had different odds payouts, but the mathematics is true. It takes some extra work to get from a 7 to 1 hard 6/8 to a 9 to 1 hard 6/8, as an example from old layouts to modern layouts.

    I am using as my reference the Scarne's New Complete Guide to Gambling (1961 and in many reprints) that has old and current table payouts. There may be other current books available if others would mention them that include Craps mathematics and how they get to those odds and House Advantage percentages (which I seem to call them House PC).
     
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  9. SevenOut, Sep 7, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Original questions:
    (1) What are the Odds of throwing a Hardway on the Come Out roll? And why?
    (2) Which easier to roll... a Hard 8 or a Hard 4? And why?

    ********
    Dave73
    Any Hardway on the CO?
    4/36= 1/8
    This is the chance of throwing a hardway on any roll. It doesnt matter if its the CO or not, the dice dont care.

    Which is harder to throw, a Hard 4 or a Hard 8?
    They are the same, 1/36. A hard 8 pays more than a hard 4 because there are more ways to lose with the hard 8, but they are just as likely to be thrown. There is only one combination for each of the 36 possible outcomes.

    [quote author="Dave73" date="1378614864"]The 4/36 is right but my reduction was wrong. It's 1/9.


    Question #1: Can someone jump in and work on this? I blew this one decades ago! My wording is "very specific" on both questions. This is a good clue. I see Dave73's method... but it is not the answer for MY crafted question #1.

    Question #2: My hard 8 and hard 4 is AFTER a Come Out roll. Maybe that is where I did not add enough background information and you are correct on the reasoning. Maybe I needed to add to my question a bit more detail. I will explain myself better, as NOW I am seeing why my question is misleading... so I will edit my initial question.

    Just to keep the questions and answers straight... if we could cut and paste the part of the question and answer to your response all of us can keep track of the latest development.
     
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  10. jkluv7, Sep 7, 2013

    jkluv7

    jkluv7 Member

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    I'm going to have to agree with Dave73's responses on the HW rolls.
    The only thing that would make the C/O roll different is that these bets are traditionally NOT WORKING on the C/O roll, unless the player specifically requests them to WORK. Not withstanding this, the probabilities Dave 73 states certainly seem true.

    The major problem I have with the Iron Cross(besides an easy bet to make), the money you make each roll is offset with money lost in the field. Take this roll sequence as an example :

    5 6 8 Fld = 21

    5 + 7 - 5 = + 2 Win on the Place 5, lose in the field
    4 + 5 = + 5 Win oh the Field 4
    9 + 5 = + 5 Win on the Field 9
    6 + 7 - 5 = + 2 Win on the Place 6, lose in the field
    8 + 7 - 5 = + 2 Win on the Place 8, lose in the field
    ====
    + 16 Total won so far in 5 rolls
    7 = - 21 Lose the $21 on the table with the 7
    =====
    TOTAL = - 5 Total for average of 6 rolls = -5

    You gotta get REAL lucky to get up to 5 rolls !

    If this would have been $22 on the inside (5/6/8/9) and each was hit, we would have won $28 - $22 still on table for a net gain of $6.

    Jeffrey
     
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  11. SevenOut, Sep 8, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Question 1: The Hard Way roll on the COME OUT... One last clue and I will respond when I see this come up. Hard Way numbers are 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12... (edited... I was WRONG... there are NO "easy" 2 or 12 so this part of my statement should be deleted as a Hard Way number.) Hard Way numbers are 4, 6, 8 and 10. What are the correct odds of throwing ANY ONE of these on the Come Out, or even On the Hop roll? It is not 1:36.

    Not working on the Come Out was an answer I was not expecting.... but not having anything to do with the Odds. That was good.

    Question 2: Dave73 has the Odds worked out already, which is the harder part of the answer. I should add... if using long run statistics with two shooters competing on throwing a Hard 8 or another only throwing for a Hard 4, which shooter is more likely hit their number Hard against the other possible combinations? (We all probably have to emphasize the LONG RUN statistics and not the quirks of Craps to solve some of these questions...)

    Added-
    Newbies be aware. As you can see, you are reading comments by guys who know their stuff. But... Craps will give you more grey hair than kids, dogs or in laws! jkluv7's response to Dave73's question is what we are looking for. I am now curious if that is the answer being looked for or not. I was thinking about my statement on Question #1 and caught myself calling a 2 or a 12 a Hard Way. They are NOT Hard Ways as they cannot be thrown in any other die combination that would be a Soft Way. Although, on a Come Out if you want to throw a 2 or 12, the odds are the same to throw one of these as a 2-2, 3-3, 4-4 or a 5-5.

    This is why I love Craps. You have to look at ALL the possibilities and eliminate the "facts" that get in the way while getting an answer that is accurate. Even after you think you have this thing completed, someone throws in something that changes the thought process. I actually rolled over in my sleep, these numbers ran through my head and ... bingo... I added two numbers that were not Hard Ways as the definition would apply.

    Dave73 figured in a similar error into his consideration. There are 36 die combination totals. The odds of throwing any one Hard Way and that would also include the 2 and 12 on the Come Out is 1:35. There is 1 way to win and 35 ways to lose. Not 1:36. AFTER the Come Out, there becomes a second math problem, according to Scarne and I will have to present that to offer next. I need to get back to bed and add this twist at a reasonable hour...

    Although the first post is the Holy Grail for Craps Players... as many can see... this has more twists than a crooked road! This is why, going back to another Topic about Expert Players and becoming one. That title is earned one situation after another, and another, etc.!

    I am thinking about why Buy of an inside number at the present as the major bet and why? The extra payout is minimal. I am trying to find an accurate payout comparison for Buying a 5 at any amount up to... where it is a prudent bet.

    Playing the Iron Cross reminds me of the Doey/Don't where you expose your bankroll for a small win on most short games and a big loss for a Point-Seven. Jeffrey seems to be working on this one. I have never played such a game, but watched a player Buying a 4 and 10 at $25, and sliding a stack of $20 to $50 in chips onto the Field when he felt there was a Field Number coming. He was doing good for awhile and then lost because of the excess Field bet money being lost and lack of 4's and 10's.

    I can already see that this Topic has gone pretty advanced to be helping a new player grasp the basics.
     
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  12. Dave73, Sep 8, 2013

    Dave73

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    I see the issue.
    1/36 is not the same as 1:36
    In essence we are both correct but we answered the question differently.

    I want to clarify that I am NOT advocating the use of the Iron Cross. It is a beat down because with $22 exposed you only win $2 on the 5,6,or 8 which are fairly common numbers in a random game.
     
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  13. SevenOut, Sep 8, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    OK. Now we each see where are coming from! No wonder Craps can be difficult to follow as the numbers can be expressed in one 1/36, two 35:1 or 1:35, a third way (percentages) and no doubt a fourth coming soon to our local theatre. I read John Scarne in the mid-1970's, so that is where the fractions and odds come into a conflict. That is why I used his question and answer on page 281. English, French, Russian and some Italian to translate.

    I always prefer to figure the odds as: how many dice combinations are losers: how many dice combinations are winners. I will express the odds of throwing on one roll 2 or 12 as 35:1, 35 to 1, which of course is Correct Odds and not the 30 FOR 1 payout on the table cloth. Some enterprising beginner should be able to figure the House Percentage, now knowing that the correct payout compared to the actual payout at the table... do not equal one another... (I added this for additional clarity which should give others to consider.)

    Placing the 5 for $20 brings in $28, so I have to assume by Buying the 5, win $30, $1 vig and you end up with an extra $1. Which is still $1 or 5% of $20. I think if you just covered the inside bets, left the Field to those who like playing with fire and hope a shooter hits a lot of inside bets, playing your first win proceeds on the Hard Six and Eight, putting the extra chips into your rack.

    The generous Field with the 12 use to be around some Casinos, but I wonder if that shows up much at a large Casino today. I watch the Field Bettors and often it is a Woman or a player with a $25 buy in moving a $5 chip in and out, sometimes letting $10 ride it out for one more roll. Almost like going to the Zoo and getting your hand between the bars in the Lion's cage, only to be distracted at the wrong time and getting your finger nails trimmed.

    I am with you. The Iron Cross would be a way to stretch your time at a table, but not very profitable over a long session.
     
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  14. basicstrategy777, Sep 9, 2013

    basicstrategy777

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    With the vig taken on a win, buying the 5/9 is always best.

    With the vig taken up front, buying the 5/9 is tricky and to be advantageous to the player, should be taken at certain betting levels only.

    Buying the 5/9 for 20 dollars is not the correct mathematical play.

    777
     
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  15. SevenOut, Sep 12, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    For you Lay Bettors, here is a pitch for you to tell me what numbers the Lay and Vig are being made.

    (1) A player throws three $25 chips onto the table and says "Lay $75 against the (which possible number(s)). AND what is the payout of this (number) when the Seven Out is rolled?

    IF, you have already figured this out as you are a Lay Bettor, I am taking this out of a Dealers Manual.

    (2) IF this Lay Bet is taken down by the Player, how much of his original $75 is returned by the dealer?
     
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  16. Dave73, Sep 12, 2013

    Dave73

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    That's a good one.... will probably many beginners who don'tplay the don't
     
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  17. rudeboy99, Sep 12, 2013

    rudeboy99

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    7-out, I can't agree with you more about the content of the first post in this thread...if one is going to try to get a handle on this game, I think it is IMPERATIVE that they learn the probability factors concerning the random roll of two dice. These odds are the engine that drive the game, and a persons knowledge of them allow them to make logical, mathematical decisions thereof. This is the foundation to acquiring an understanding of the game. :coolsmirk:
     
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  18. SevenOut, Sep 13, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    I am throwing out this question for a beginner, as this is a fact of playing Craps you need to know. This is probably where the question really belongs, so I moved this part from the Craps Dealer topic.

    (1) “WHY does the Craps Dealer ask and WANT a VIG of 5% when a Buy or Lay Bet is made?”

    This question is in the Las Vegas Strip Dealers School dealer’s manual directed toward a Dealer student. You really do WANT to know what the dealer is being taught, as it is important to your game. Even I want to refresh myself on the Don’t Pass bets!


    (2) Which Craps Table has BETTER ODDS for the Hard Six and Hard Eight bet?

    Casino 1- 9 to 1 OR
    Casino 2- 10 for 1.

    And Why?
     
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  19. Dave73, Sep 15, 2013

    Dave73

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    I guess no one else wants to play...
     
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  20. jkluv7, Sep 16, 2013

    jkluv7

    jkluv7 Member

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    I have known forever there is a 5% vig collected on a Lay bet, but not WHY. I also know the 5% is on the TOTAL Lay bets, not just on one bet, although most dealers collect on just a single bet.

    I can only guess that the vig is to cover the fact I did not go through the D/P or D/C ?

    Jeffrey
     
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