The Bell Curve Strategy

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by The Comeback Kid, Oct 15, 2013.

  1. The Comeback Kid, Oct 15, 2013

    The Comeback Kid

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    The Bell Curve - price = FREE

    This strategy utilizes both sides of the game, and when it gets going - is such a blast.
    And isn't that why we're all here?
    Players at the table will think you're crazy, going against the herd - until they see your rack filling up.


    It works best on Choppy or One ”˜n done tables, which assumes that no shooter will throw greater than 8 - 10 shots.
    Do not use on streaky tables.


    Assume that the table has good energy, but is predominately a “one n’ done”. (How many of those do you see?)
    The "one n' done" scenario is a perfect casino trap as most players are thinking, “this is the beginning of something wonderful"
    and are now fully invested on the 2nd losing roll, causing the frustrating “giveback”.

    The Bell Curve strategy will flip this to your advantage.

    1. Place a pass line bet then the appropriate odds upon making the point. It’s a 5.
    2. Wait 1 or 2 tosses to guard against point 7-out or a repeat number knocking off the-don’t-come.
    3. Now place a-don’t-come. Let’s say it’s a 9. Your-don’t travels to the 9, lay $15 behind.
    4. Place another don’t come. Let’s say it’s a 10. Your-don’t travels to the 10, you lay $20 behind.
    5. Place another don’t come. Let’s say it’s a 6. Say no action. It stays, but is vulnerable to the 7.
    6. Your don’t come is still up. Let’s say it’s a 4. Your-don’t travels to the 4, you lay $20 behind.
    7. Next throw he hits the 5. Winner! You win on your pass line with odds.
    8. Now place another Pass line bet – you are hoping for a 7.
    Next throw he hits a 7. Winner!
    You win on the pass line and your 9, 10, & 4. Now pull everything down.
    9. Trusting the trend, you’re now done with this shooter.
    Lock up your winnings pull your pass line and wait for the next,
    as there is a high probability he will seven out on the next point.
    10. It’s named the Bell Curve because you start going one direction then turn to the opposite direction
    with 2 or 3 numbers waiting for the eventual 7-out bringing you back to the beginning with a profit - timing is everything.

    Let’s say he continues hitting numbers and knocks off 1 or 2 or your-don’t-comes (ouch),
    consider pulling everything down and go with the shooter placing $34 inside
    and watch in amazement as the shooter keeps hitting numbers and your money returns with a profit.

    Another variation is to start with the shooter on the pass with odds.
    The point’s a 6. Now place $32 inside and start your-don’t comes.
    The next number’s an 8 say no action and collect your $14.
    With the-don’t-come - the next number is a 5.

    Take your $14 winnings from your place bet and pull down while laying odds of $15 on the-don’t-come number 5.
    Now you’re leveraging casino money on that number.
    Next hit's a 9. Do the same thing. Another don’t come on the 8 say no action and collect your $14.
    Here you can discontinue your-don’t-comes and wait for the eventual 7-out, or keep the 8 up hoping for more profit.

    Let’s assume nobody can get a point, but their hitting a few numbers. Reverse the strategy.
    1. Place a-don’t-pass bet then lay the appropriate odds. The number’s a 5.
    2. Place $34 on the 6, 8 & 9. After the shooter hits maybe 3 times pull down and wait for 7-out

    Note: Remember the Casino considers the-don’t-pass such a good bet,
    they will allow you to pull it down, anytime you are foolish to do so.
    In other words, if you feel there’s sufficient momentum now to hit the point
    (after 3 numbers) pull that don’t pass down or at least take the odds off.
    The key is to feel for the trend early so you’re ahead of the game.

    Have fun with it.

    Note: I could charge $1,500 for this, but that would be disingenuous on this forum.
    I prefer to win my money at the tables.

    Roll well my friends
     

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  2. KokomoJoe4, Oct 15, 2013

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Comeback,

    As you and I both know, any method, even one universally accepted as being shitty, can win when in action.

    I have no problem with the method you have just described, but the rolls could just as easily have resulted in:

    Point 5 established w/ odds placed

    Sit out a roll or two, then place a DC ---> Bar point rolled, followed immediately by seven out, taking down your five/odds and your DC.

    Just a thought.
     
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  3. The Comeback Kid, Oct 15, 2013

    The Comeback Kid

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    Ko,

    That's why you take the outline of this or any approach, and do an assessment of your comfort areas.

    Ok, I see this 1 or 2 aspects, I like it because it resonates with what I've experienced.

    Teak it to an all new expanded version of what you do now.

    But, you are correct nothing works every time, and that's what make the game so interesting.
    And I for one, would not want it any other way.

    Soon you may find yourself at a table where this may work perfectly given the circumstances.

    Now you have a new wrinkle in your arsenal.

    Keep your bets low when you try it - see what happens.

    A car going 5 mph hits a tree, not so bad. A car going 200 mph hits a tree - big problem.

    Roll well my friend
     
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  4. Dragline, Oct 15, 2013

    Dragline

    Dragline Member

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    i have played this way and yes, it usually works quite well on choppy tables. But sometimes it also knocks off your don't bets and then sevens out. So its a mixed bag, but it can work. Best to increase the bets slowly on whatever side seems to be winning the most.

    And never take don'ts down or call no action. If you don't want to play them, always place the number for an equal or close-to-equal amount. You can usually create a "no-lose" situation -- like a DC 6 for $20 and place 6 for $18 -- you win $1 or $2 no matter what, so long as you work the place 6 on the comeout.
     
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  5. SevenOut, Oct 15, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    If someone had the "system" to predict when a table was choppy... it would be worth every cent.

    I have watched shooters throw numbers, one at a time, never to repeat and Seven Out. This would pay off well. I have also seen a shooter hit every number and then take the Don'ts down, one roll after the other... and repeat some as well. When I say, numbers, I mean the 4,5,6,8,9 and 10 with some 2, 3, 11 & 12's.

    Your system is tailored for a very narrow game plan and like my examples above, can win or can just as easily lose. I always dislike a "complicated game plan". I like the Keep It Simple Stupid plan, that I use. When I play Craps, I am not hedging my bets. I put my money out to WIN and am optimistic that a shooter will run my numbers to embellish my chip rack with color. I do not Doey/Don't my game for a hedge. My bets do not sit out one or any roll... except the Come Out... after a Win, of course.

    I am sure someone could practice your game at home, become confident in its hedging... and develop that extra Craps Sense when to modify while in play. I can see its merits of play, but it appears to me that you want more time at the table for fewer win or loses to suffer. Sadly, those players that have "Craps Sense" are in the minority and pay all of the Casino overhead.

    You did a nice job explaining your game... but it shows you have been working on this for a long time!
     
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  6. The Comeback Kid, Oct 16, 2013

    The Comeback Kid

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    There's an old saying in boxing: We have strategies until we get hit in the face.
     
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  7. SevenOut, Oct 19, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Using the Bell Curve.... DUCK, unless you are a Doey/Dont and want to take the punch on the chin.

    They had a Strong Man Kansas City some years back. The fights in the stands were more entertaining. Almost like a Craps game.
     
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  8. The Comeback Kid, Jan 16, 2014

    The Comeback Kid

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    This post is in reply to The Comeback Kids’ explanation to the “Bell Curve” strategy.
    I have a couple of regulars who use a similar strategy, but they generally “buy behind”
    either the 4 or 10, thus giving themselves a bit more control, and not having to worry
    about losing the DC if 7 or 11 rolls. They also Place the 5, 6 and 8. The bet size of the
    “buy behind” is significantly larger than the amount they invest on the PB’s, of course
    as the payout is 1 for 2. This doesn’t seem to work too poorly, unless the 10’s and 4’s
    appear a lot. What I’m wondering is if this might not be a more prudent tactic?
    Otherwise, you’re screwed if a 7 doesn’t roll on the come out. Or am I missing something?
    RudeBoy
    ---------------------------------------
    You’re not missing a thing R-boy, except the thread location – took the liberty.
    Hope you don’t mind. And thanks for thinking of me.

    Starting from the don’ts, with some choice PBs, offers maximum control, in fact,
    I don’t know if you can get more than that. Hit a few of those puppies, pull down,
    then load up on the DCs, waiting for the inevitable – Repeat! Caaaching!

    And I believe the buy behind is a don’t-side hedger’s dream on the come out, especially if you
    see 7 city – yes they can come in bunches?

    Just realize that you’re putting 5x the money at risk, including the vig, to protect a flat bet!
    And if you go both 4 & 10 - well you can do the math.

    Mmmm, just when you thought you had it figured out.

    One could always switch to the doey side.

    Let me get this out right now...
    One reason I hate the doey/don’t is because you’re denying yourself one of the great joys of the game.
    I'm no good at self-denial.

    Winning a good amount of sweet naturals on come out is part of my game.
    (Don’t rack ”˜em, stack ”˜em)

    My thinking is this, set your course small. Get on the merry-go-round and let the game come,
    being fluid enough to adjust keeping your wits about you. With plenty of action on both sides of the ledger,
    yo’re sure to have a fun time with the “BC” strategy...

    And maybe even walk away with profit.
     
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  9. rudeboy99, Feb 10, 2014

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    Apologies for losing my post!!! Like a guy explained to me long ago..."This getting old ain't for p**sies...lol!" Anyway, the primary drawback I've noticed with the Bell Curve and "doey/don't" types of strategy is that MOST rookie craps players have a terrible time because 1) they have a difficult time remembering where and why their money is heading in separate directions, 2) occasionally, a shooter on a tear will pluck off those back line bets like gangbusters, thus seriously putting a hurt on their B.R. due to larger bet sizes made on the Don't. So my advice concerning these tactics is, Newbies-No! Intermediate and advanced types of players...you might test the waters, particularly if you're having unsatisfactory results with a normal, traditional, approach to the game. As always, this is only MY advice... and isn't meant to be written in stone. ;-P
     
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