The 2016 Biased Dice Conspiracy - Redux by Heavy

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Craps Poopshoot, Jan 3, 2016.

  1. eagleeye2, Jan 22, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,472
    Likes Received:
    587
    Gender:
    Male

    Dam TDV, Re-Read the Full Post, DUH...

    TDVegas,
    I PLAy to WIN, not lose at CRAPS!
    If you truly believe that walking up to a Craps Table; scanning half a dozen or more players shots, then making that decision to Insert Your Own $$$ into the game, on The Do or Don't side, or walk away; looking for better opportunities elsewhere is a waste of time, then IMHO, YOU are a guaranteed loser @ Craps!
    For me, that 1/2 Hour observation & analysis time, simply allows me to have a better chance of WINNING, which is my objective for Playing Craps in the First Place.

    ~ Yep, it says ""half a dozen or more players shots, & also Says ""For me, that 1/2 Hour observation & analysis time, simply allows me to have a better chance of WINNING, which is my objective for Playing Craps in the First Place.""

    Now, apparently you cannot make a decision to Play at that table under Review, in that time frame, IMHO, you Simply Should Not Play there!!!

    But then again, you are simply Playing for FUN!
    eagleeye2
     
    #241
  2. TDVegas, Jan 22, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,332
    Likes Received:
    11,312
    Insufferable... Laughable. Whatever. I've had my morning chuckle.

    Carry on.
     
    #242
  3. Onautopilot, Jan 22, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,767
    Gender:
    Male
    If you are saying that you can identify a bias in the dice after 50-60 rolls, and are able to exploit that observed bias in some way.........I applaud you!

    But I highly doubt you are able to do that!
     
    #243
    wonko33 likes this.
  4. black3car, Jan 22, 2016

    black3car

    black3car Member

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2015
    Messages:
    618
    Likes Received:
    226
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Indiana
    Like I've said...you can't make this stuff up...you just can't. The popcorn is on the stove! :D
     
    #244
  5. TDVegas, Jan 22, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,332
    Likes Received:
    11,312
    No, that's a misnomer. Those playing for fun can and are trying to win. No different than the person not playing for fun. There is no magic. The game remains the same whether you are pounding your fist on the rail...or not. The game remains the same whether you or I are playing pass or don't pass. My attitude at the bubble or table has no bearing on result IMO. If you are suggesting that staring intently at the felt makes you a better player than the guy with the same bet who is sneaking a peak at the nice looking cocktail waitress...you could not be more wrong. He's the same as you with better instincts.

    If it's not being played for fun...meaning the intention is to make a living, you aren't doing that. So, you're no different than anyone else here. No better, no worse.

    You can think whatever you want. Reality is a different story.

    The rules, the betting, the HA...all remain the same for Johnny Psycho or Timmy Quiet. Having fun just means one is enjoying his time there...win or lose. He wants to win, tries to win...but he has fun. In your world....a loss means you are head banging. I have no headache.

    Look at tennis...
    You had cranks, complainers.
    McEnroe, Conners

    You had quiet types..
    Federer
    Sampras

    To each his own. People may think the former were more intent on winning. In reality, the quiet ones did as well, or better. At least Sampras and Federer looked like they were enjoying the game.
     
    #245
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2016
    Onautopilot likes this.
  6. SevenOut, Jan 22, 2016

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    Time watching the table is better spent than too much time AT the table.

    I find myself watching a live Session and imagining MY System in play. When the Point Seven Out several times cleans everyone out... I feel I was doing pretty good waiting this one out. Maybe someone grinding out a couple bucks, but still nowhere close to even money for the night.

    I find myself watching and the hardways are repeating, lots of paying numbers being paid off, points... that smirk on my face is wiped clean and wish I had caught that roll instead of gathering table lint on the sidelines.
     
    #246
    Onautopilot likes this.
  7. TDVegas, Jan 22, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,332
    Likes Received:
    11,312
    Especially at the bubble and seeing the previous 15 rolls on record. I actually like walking up to a table with a bunch of 7 outs...then jumping in. My reasoning is nothing more than superstition saying "a point is due"....
     
    #247
  8. SevenOut, Jan 22, 2016

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    TDV... yep.

    Like being a sleep walker at night on the Las Vegas Strip and not being run down at 2AM for 14 evenings, but the 15th time... your luck runs out with your name on the front page of the Las Vegas Review/Journal wearing a Bally's tee shirt and hat under a Metro Bus with that evening's dinner squeezed out of both ends.
     
    #248
  9. eagleeye2, Jan 23, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,472
    Likes Received:
    587
    Gender:
    Male
     
    #249
  10. SevenOut, Jan 23, 2016

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    eagleeye2 and TDVegas and SevenOut have their own personal Craps style.

    To prejudge one player's strategy, as better or not, cannot be proven on a Live Craps Table unless both are playing at the same time. I cannot even describe my strategy as it changes... if I am winning, holding my own, or losing. My Bankroll determines if I should be cautious or aggressive with my wagering and pressing bets.

    Now... take a simple slice of one's strategy and put it to mathematics and possible outcomes compared to another strategy against a series of random outcomes a comparison can be made.

    Is this comparison valid for ALL sessions? No. All are unique and even if the player's were able to change their wagering on the next Session, there are so many variables to consider, no one can prove anything in their favor.

    Somehow Craps Players assume the other Player is a mirror image of themselves and not following thru what the other would. It is these quirks of personality that by fortune pressed up all their wagers and the dice rolled for thirty minutes with multiple points and hardways.

    Or....

    ....the moment all of my wagers were all pressed up... Seven Out.

    If eagleeye2 is comfortable with his game strategy, at least he HAS a strategy. It is not my game and obviously not TDV's. But who am I to judge the reasons.

    Personally, my good looks and keen sense of Bankroll to Wagering has done me well this year. Losing $67 for 2016. Could I have done better? Nope. Is it the weakness of my play and bankroll? Nope. Am I happy about it.? Never. Losing keeps me off the tables to heal the ego.

    My current loss for 2016 is the result of not having a series of shooters hitting my aggressive Full Monte System wagers often enough and for an extended period of time. I cannot blame the dice, the shooter or myself. Craps mathematics supports why I have a loss for the year. Can I expect this to continue? Most likely if I have confidence on the mathematics of Craps.

    Are there Craps Sessions that can provide a windfall for the aggressive player. Yes. For a timid player. Maybe. For a frequent player. No.

    Anyone who claims to win every year Shooting Craps... has a bad memory or records his winnings and losses differently than most of us. It is great fiction in a book or magazine article, but fiction. After millions of Craps Sessions you read about one person beating the house for taxable winnings... yet never hear about this individual winning ever again. Think about it.
     
    #250
    Onautopilot and TDVegas like this.
  11. TDVegas, Jan 23, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    17,332
    Likes Received:
    11,312
    You sir...are wisdom.
     
    #251
  12. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 27, 2016

    The Midnight Skulker

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2010
    Messages:
    4,087
    Likes Received:
    4,328
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Idaho, USA
    Well, I have finally slogged my way through the resurrected "bias dice question" thread, which at 548 posts and counting has come to resemble the Middle East, where the enemy of my enemy is my enemy as well. Hence I am continuing my dialog with eagleeye2 here. Before getting into the nitty-gritty, however, I feel the need to lay down just what it is this dialog is about.

    What I am disputing is the basic assertion, and not just by eagleeye2, that biased dice cannot be exploited, that they always increase the frequency of the Devil and therefore increase the house advantage (HA) against the right-side player. My assertion is that we have goatcabin's balloon analogy as viewed from the casino's perspective. The casino wants to create a bulge (i.e. increase the HA). To do this it must 1) change balloons (i.e. implement a new pay table) and/or 2) create an indentation in the balloon elsewhere (i.e. accept a reduced HA on some other bets). Off this table is a discussion of whether or not casinos actually do use biased dice.
    Yes, I think we all agree on the distribution of results from unbiased dice and the HA on all bets if that Perfect 36 distribution is the one in effect.
    I beg to differ. Clearly a biased die will produce non-random results, which in turn will produce an asymmetrical distribution. Looking only at the probability of throwing a seven, however, that will remain at 1/6. Regardless of what face shows on the biased die it must be matched with its complement (1 with 6, 2 with 5, etc.) on the unbiased die to produce a total of 7. Each face of the unbiased die has a 1/6 chance of showing as you have stated, therefore there is a 1/6 chance of getting a total of 7 with one biased and one unbiased die. What will be different is the distribution of how that 7 is rolled (1-6 vs 2-5 vs 3-4 vs 4-3 vs 5-2 vs 6-1).
    It seems to me that you are proposing that two identical objects in the same environment exhibit different behavior. The table gravitationally attracts the heavy side of one die while simultaneously repelling the heavy side of the other die. I don't think even Quantum Mechanics works that way; the laws of Newtonian Physics that I learned, albeit more than 50 years ago, certainly don't.

    Be that as it may I must point out that in the analysis I did five years ago on the "bias dice question" thread the probability of a 7 came out to be 0.166616 when using two dice with a heavy six face. This is less than the 0.166667 probability of two unbiased dice.

    Just for giggles and grins I decided to investigate the effect of having dice with different biases in the game (which is why it has taken me so long to compose this post). Five years ago I assumed all dice in play had the same kind of bias, heavy on the 6 in this case, and calculated the maximum bias the casino could introduce and still have an advantage, however minute, on every bet. This "mixed bag" scenario gets a lot messier simply because, from a practical standpoint, the casino cannot tell the shooter which dice he/she must use, nor can it present two bowls and make the shooter select one die from each. IOW not all the dice in a stick are biased the same way! Using the same maximum amount of bias I calculated for all dice biased heavy six I analyzed a scenario where three dice in a stick are heavy six and the other two dice are heavy one. A shooter presented with such a stick had a 30% chance of picking two heavy sixes, a 60% chance of getting one of each, and a 10% chance of getting both of the heavy aces. This is what I came up with.

    Heavy6x3_1x2.jpg

    I make the following observations.
    • The probability of a 7 does increase, but by only .00001. This hardly seems significant, particularly since all the other probabilities look pretty close to their unbiased counterparts.
    • It turns out that, not surprisingly, the HA of many bets is also pretty close to that of their unbiased counterparts. For example,
      • HA(Pass/Come) = 1.48% (vs 1.41%)
      • HA(DP/DC) = 1.26% (vs 1.36% -- oops!)
      • HA(Buy 4) = 1.07% (vs 1.33% -- oooops!)
      • HA(Field) = 2.88% (vs 2.78%)
    • Putting sticks of dice that consistently have different biases into play creates provable intent IMHO and would therefore run amok of general cheating statutes. IOW I don't think the "I trusted my vendor" (casino) and "It's just a fluke" (manufacturer) defenses would fly.

    [Editted to insert "the" before "Middle East" and to change "statues" to "statutes".]
     
    #252
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2016
    SevenOut and Onautopilot like this.
  13. SevenOut, Jan 27, 2016

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    As in any "study", assumptions have to be made to minimize any error(s) made by those doing the study. Often a parallel study is done by an impartial group to confirm one or the other's results.

    The common denominator of Die Bias is that the "six pip" is the culprit responsible. This, I feel, is taking a giant leap in confidence, as the finished cube may be the source of any perceived bias. In that example, the entire result is suspect.

    If individual dies can vary in bias, then I call that normal distribution and would produce expected outcomes.

    Removing acetate or shaving of one or more die sides are "crooked dice", not biased. The penalty would be severe for the source and the user, financially.

    A perfect cube is expected to be within 1/2500 of an inch +/- or 4 mils +/-. These are not my numbers but the Experimental Chaos Conference of 2001.

    Outcomes on one die would expect one face in six on over 640,934 rolls were within plus or minus 0.0010 statistically occuring. Determining that High Quality Casino Dice are Fair.

    Unfair Dice. A Monopoly Die IS unfair. The cube is not perfect or within the same specifications as a Casino Die Cube. The pips are dimpled and colored enamel added. The SIX would be lightest and the ONE would be the heaviest face.

    Toy Dice in games are all biased, as those used in Monopoly.

    Casino "Grade" dice are perfect cubes to the standards of the industry. The pips are filled with fillers for pips of the same specific gravity as the acetate removed. The pips and cube are then finished to flush and perfectly flat on each end. Each side is then repeated to this finishing process. This final finishing COULD EASILY affect the weight difference from one cube to another... that I offer up as a bias, but not for any particular pip face. I admit not all dies will weigh exactly the same, but they remain perfect cubes, non the less. Unless, I am proven wrong, which in this area I admit there are possible exceptions!

    The Die Bias seems to concentrate on the SIX PIP. I feel that is a major mistake. Nobody has determine that the filling is more or less dense than the acetate removed. With the mass of the total die, the depth the white pip is injected HOW could even a slight difference affect the weight, considering there are also FIVE other sides applied exactly with the same material.

    Die Bias supporters need to find a real "smoking gun". There are 21 pips to consider, not six pips. If the pip's specific gravity is the same as the acetate, then the only other option is that the "cube" is out of specification and sides are not equal.
     
    #253
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2016
  14. eagleeye2, Jan 31, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,472
    Likes Received:
    587
    Gender:
    Male

    SevenOut,

    In general, a good presentation, however, that last paragraph needs a Major Assumption to be Valid, i.e. that last paragraph would only be true if the DENSITY of the Die was UNIFORM THROUGHOUT.

    It is known that Density is affected by the rate of cooling from the molten, or extrudable state, to the solid state.

    Thus, a Die could be a "perfect cube", measurement wise, but be Weight Unbalanced due to differential density within that Die.

    Now, watch the casino employees here, say that eagleeye2 now claims DB upon Differential Density!

    What a HOOT those guys ae.

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2
     
    #254
    SevenOut likes this.
  15. Onautopilot, Jan 31, 2016

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2015
    Messages:
    9,405
    Likes Received:
    6,767
    Gender:
    Male
    Well, so far, you have corrected almost everyone here on the forum! You have corrected, or ridiculed the most accomplished probabilities mathematician, dealers, and casino managers, with years of experience in the trade, Dice manufacturing experts, and many other logical and critical thinkers.

    You end most of these ridiculing comments with....DUH, or What a HOOT.

    Must be nice to hold such an elevated position.....the authority on any, and all things.

    Attaining such knowledge must have been a monumental task, since you do not allow that anyone else could not possibly contribute anything to further your own knowledge and understanding of anything.

    The professors at that big 10 school where you received your engineering degree must still be sending you letters of appreciation for all you "taught" them, and for making the necessary corrections to their curriculum.

    Well done!
     
    #255
    Settingcanthurt likes this.
  16. Settingcanthurt, Jan 31, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    4,975
    Likes Received:
    3,498
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Flyover below the tundra
    And this is the casino's fault... So they can cheat gamblers.
     
    #256
  17. Settingcanthurt, Jan 31, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    4,975
    Likes Received:
    3,498
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Flyover below the tundra

    I bet he has a Patent on superior intellect.
     
    #257
  18. eagleeye2, Jan 31, 2016

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    3,472
    Likes Received:
    587
    Gender:
    Male
    Settingcanthurt,

    Your conclusion!

    I simply stated a fact, i.e., Thus, a Die could be a "perfect cube", measurement wise, but be Weight Unbalanced due to differential density within that Die.

    eagleeye2
     
    #258
  19. Settingcanthurt, Jan 31, 2016

    Settingcanthurt

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    4,975
    Likes Received:
    3,498
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Flyover below the tundra
    If anything is unbalanced around here.........
     
    #259
  20. SevenOut, Jan 31, 2016

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Messages:
    2,322
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    89005
    Eagleeye2.... valid point concerning "density" through out a die.

    Density within a die would be concerned not with the chemistry of the acetate, but if any air was incorporated in the process of extruding the slabs to become dice. Since a die can be examined easily, I have yet to see any air inclusions with my naked eye. If one can find air inclusions affecting a die... you have a very rare item and very unlikely to exist at all. But... you are using critical thinking.

    More importantly, I believe, is not the density of the acetate... but with temperature extremes the expansion of the acetate. Unless a Casino is outside the comfort level of its customers, even this is not even valid.
    The following is a bit ill fitted, but I refer anyone to:

    www.azom.com/properties.aspx?ArticleID=1461


    Material: Cellulose Acetate
    Composition: (C5H4O[CH2OR-(OR2)]-O-)n R = COCH3 or H
    Property Minimum Value (S.I.) Maximum Value (S.I.) Units (S.I.) Minimum Value (Imp.) Maximum Value (Imp.) Units (Imp.)
    Atomic Volume (average) 0.006 0.007 m3/kmol 366.142 427.166 in3/kmol
    Density 1.28 1.32 Mg/m3 79.9078 82.405 lb/ft3
    Energy Content 100 120 MJ/kg 10833.9 13000.6 kcal/lb
    Bulk Modulus 4.672 4.906 GPa 0.677616 0.711555 106 psi
    Compressive Strength 29.76 52.99 MPa 4.31632 7.68555 ksi
    Ductility 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 NULL
    Elastic Limit 24.8 44.16 MPa 3.59694 6.40487 ksi
    Endurance Limit 12.4 22.08 MPa 1.79847 3.20243 ksi
    Fracture Toughness 1.053 3.158 MPa.m1/2 0.958279 2.87393 ksi.in1/2
    Hardness 74 132 MPa 10.7328 19.145 ksi
    Loss Coefficient 0.00976 0.0167 0.00976 0.0167 NULL
    Modulus of Rupture 43.4 77.28 MPa 6.29464 11.2085 ksi
    Poisson's Ratio 0.3827 0.3989 0.3827 0.3989 NULL
    Shear Modulus 0.8628 1.474 GPa 0.125139 0.213786 106 psi
    Tensile Strength 31 55.2 MPa 4.49617 8.00608 ksi
    Young's Modulus 2.4 4.1 GPa 0.34809 0.594654 106 psi
    Glass Temperature 325.4 338.6 K 126.05 149.81 °F
    Latent Heat of Fusion kJ/kg BTU/lb
    Maximum Service Temperature 326 340 K 127.13 152.33 °F
    Melting Point 493 513 K 427.73 463.73 °F
    Minimum Service Temperature 150 200 K -189.67 -99.67 °F
    Specific Heat 1451 1509 J/kg.K 1.12287 1.16775 BTU/lb.
     
    #260
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2016