Taking what the Dice Give You

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Nov 14, 2017.

  1. von duck, Nov 18, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Sorry man, but there is NOT a 1 in 11 chance of calling any of the 11 possible summed outcomes. You're chance of calling the summed outcome depends on which outcome you choose to call. 5/36 for 6&8, 1/9 for 5&9, 1/12 for 10&4, 1/18 for 3/11, 1/36 for 2/12 .1/6 for 7. 11 possible calls, six different sets of odds. None of which are one in eleven. :) There is a 1/11 chance of you guessing the combination, if I am setting the dice by hand. You said "balanced" so this post assumes the dice will be thrown.
     
    #101
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2017
  2. von duck, Nov 18, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    There is, the word is serendipity, I can tell you with all certainty, that there IS such a thing. I once had a rendezvous with serendipity, so unlikely, that I believe that it was Devine intervention, and it is a gambling story. :cool:.
     
    #102
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Nov 19, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    How do you get around the fact that if you do not have a bet up on the person preceding you, you will not be allowed to shoot?

    Is this to say that you do not bet when your buddies, who we are told are great shooters, are shooting?

    What are you doing at the table when the other 12 players are shooting?

    What do you do if your first shoot was not so good and you want to have a second shoot, especially if this occurs when you have just traveled a long way to a casino?
     
    #103
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  4. KokomoJoe4, Nov 19, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Baron,

    We are aware that, because nine numbers show in more than one way, that all dice results show in some fraction divisible by 36.

    My point is that there are 11 possible numeric outcomes. This is also not a secret.

    In the post you quote, I am speaking to hear myself talk, and have covered both of these "facts".

    I am in the process of tabulating the results of my "having a winner on each and every toss", and will put up these results when finished.
     
    #104
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  5. basicstrategy777, Nov 19, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    It is an indisputable fact that....some people are more lucky than other people. And some people are just unlucky, and you wouldn't go near them with an 11 foot pole. You've met these people...no ?

    To say luck has no independent existence and is only short term variability ....I personally don't believe, even though I state it in my book. Chapter 11..."Etiquette and Superstritions" goes into the 'usual suspects' when it comes to rock-bed , true and tested superstistions about craps. An old saying doesn't remain and persist and survive 100's of years unless there is a kernel of truth to them....so it is with craps sayings/superstitions.

    When you are hotter than a 2 peckered goat EVERRRYBODY knows lady luck has settled in you and you are invincible......to bet against you at these times is commiting financial suicide....random and math be damned. If I say it will happen....it WILL happen. And it does.

    Luck...voo-doo...the voices.....discount them at your peril.

    Just because you can't explain something....doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

    I'd rather be lucky than good.

    777
     
    #105
  6. von duck, Nov 19, 2017

    von duck

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    I was just correcting a "technical error", so that you might not be accused of lying, by the "troll patrol", Gargoyle is somewhere, just dying to flog somebody. Just covering your back man.:).
     
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  7. von duck, Nov 19, 2017

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    I'm going to tell the "Serendipity Duck" story whenever I can find the gumption to type for a couple hours. I'm a one finger typer, so it takes me a while to "punch out" post. Much truth in your statement, and like you say, no way to explain it.:)
     
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  8. basicstrategy777, Nov 19, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    You sound like me....a Bible typer...." Seek and ye shall find"

    777
     
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  9. KokomoJoe4, Nov 19, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Recorded 55 rolls playing for a winner on every roll. Arbitrarily chose $10 Field, $5 Five, $6 Six and Eight and $1 ea on the reds. Since winning every roll is every roll, working coming out.

    If thinking correctly, Double field winner is net $17, since place bets stay up and reds go down. Net is $7 on the Field winner. Place bet hits win $7, but lose $13 for net -$6. Sevens win $15 and lose $29 for net -$14.

    Results 6/3, 2, 6/2, 6/1 \ 5/1, 4/3 \ 3, 3/1, 12, 3/1 \ 11, 6/4, 11, 6/3, 5/3, 5/2 \ 5/4, 5/2 \ 6/1 \ 5/1, 3/3 \
    4/2, 12, 3/1, 3/3 \ 3, 4/3 \ 5/2 \ 5/2 \ 12, 3/2, 5/4, 11, 6/4, 2/2, 4/4, 5/3, 12, 5/5, 12, 4/4, 3/2 \ 4/3 \ 6/1 \ 5/3, 3, 6/4, 6/3, 4/4 \ 12, 5/3, 11, 3/3, 5/1, 5/2 \

    Result is a +$45 Dave, damn near a dollar a roll.

    Didn't think much about it, but how could the ratio of your outlay with this play be "improved"?
     
    #109
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2017
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  10. lone irish digit, Nov 19, 2017

    lone irish digit

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    Koko,

    I can not speak for James unless perhaps I am James, but over his numerous posts he has addressed all of your questions posed in your post.

    Q1. How do you get around the fact that if you do not have a bet up on the person preceding you, you will not be allowed to shoot?

    He bets minimum pass line bet only on the person to his right much like Supperick


    Q2. Is this to say that you do not bet when your buddies, who we are told are great shooters, are shooting?

    He bets on his buddies only if he has confidence in them.


    Q3. What are you doing at the table when the other 12 players are shooting?

    See basic strategy post #13 House Edge on the Don't pass bet


    Q4. What do you do if your first shoot was not so good and you want to have a second shoot, especially if this occurs when you have just traveled a long way to a casino?

    I think he said if his shot was not up to par he would quit, go eat, back to room, or visit the restroom and focus on what he may have been doing during his toss to get the bad results. In other words, he would quit after the first toss, analyze his toss in his mind, and then make minute corrections to his finely tuned toss before playing again. If you believe in dice influence then this is a reasonable strategy; if you don't then it is silly except by not playing you are more likely saving money.

    Also, when he goes to the casinos it's usually for more than one day so he can pick and choose when and where to play. The only time when this does not happen is when he is traveling to other places and happen to stop at an out of the way casino such as Harrahs in New Mexico.
     
    #110
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2017
  11. KokomoJoe4, Nov 19, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Don't follow all the details around JH but this answers things pretty much in line with what you would expect to hear from a person who is pretty sure he will do OK on himself, but not sure about on others.

    LOL, just saw the post 13 - that would be one way to pass the time LID. :)
     
    #111
  12. James Hall, Nov 19, 2017

    James Hall

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    I have posted several times about what I do in certain situations , I know that you are a busy man and
    don't spend an awful lot of time on the board so if you have a question about what I post , please feel free to ask questions or comment

    What I have posted in the past , and is my rule
    "I generally bet only when I am throwing the dice or when someone I have trained or someone I know really well have the dice.
    I play only when conditions are perfect
    I play from one of two places , I will get on the table when I have to wait for 4 people or fewer to get the dice
    If required , to throw , I will play a $5 pass line bet and double odds to hold my position while waiting

    I never wait for the dice to go around the table , when I seven out , win or lose I walk , I will go to another table or caino
    If I have a short roll and 7 out I will go to the room and reestablish the motion of my throw , then to the casino

    There are specific tables in Vegas I play because the bounce characteristic of those specific tables
    are very similar to the table in my living room , some almost identical
    I will not play on tables when the bounce characteristic is different than my own tables
    \I hoe this gives you the answers you were looking for
     
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  13. FredP

    FredP Member

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    Nothing is ever perfect, so your saying you never play?
     
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  14. KokomoJoe4, Nov 19, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

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    Very good. When I get more of the picture, then things become more realistic. What you are describing is a reasonable method of play for someone who is confident of wagering on himself.

    I do not doubt for a minute that if I personally won with good regularity when shooting myself, I would play in a similar manner, except maybe I would put up big wagers very quickly once I saw that my shot was 'on'.

    Even with all this said, I find it hard, but not necessarily impossible to believe, that there is any craps player who has a large majority of winning hands vs. losing ones. I'm pretty sure there is no one out there who claims to win every time.

    Having no belief in DI, I will still acknowledge that anything is possible.

    I play with a few people who consider themselves DI, but have not played with any of them enough times to reach any kind of meaningful conclusion on their dice shooting ability. There is one guy who I have seen shoot maybe 10-15 times, with 5 or 6 very nice rolls, but the one time I went out on him pretty heavy from the start, he had a clunker, so this did nothing to brighten my outlook on the matter.

    When I really start trying to think about the concept of DI, I always fall back to the universally- taught concept of randomness, that is, that the process is beyond our control. Because I also know that there is the expectation of a lot of variability with a random event, it works out that ANYTHING is possible, but don't count on it being influenced, controlled, or improved upon with practice.

    Why? Because of the universally taught concept of randomness that we all learn as youngsters, where the coin and then the dice are cited as perfect examples of this concept.

    To bring up an old, but I think good point:

    Question: How is it that dice can be influenced but coins can not?

    There happens to exist a casino game of chance involving dice outcomes where it is possible to win large amounts of money. Not so with the flip of a coin. Why? Because there is no way to manipulate such a "game" into anything other than a 50/50 split. There is nothing in it for the house, other than either to (1) rely on luck, or (2) set up the game in such a way that the player wagers on ten outcomes, betting either Heads, Tails, or Tie. Maybe toss in some sucker bets on consecutive H or T, and of course, pay less than fairly. In this sense, it is possible, but we don't see the game.

    I think that the answer to the Q posed is that perhaps someone who sells dice influencing ability must have it as accepted that the tossing of two dice is NOT necessarily a random event, and that someone who learns and practices properly can become an advantage player.

    The fact that a lot of money is wagered at this game of chance will have some people chomping at the bit to learn whatever it is that needs to be learned to become an advantaged player. If they do not succeed, it is important that they "understand" that it is not due to randomness, but rather to a lack of skill. From here, it might be logical to spend a few more bucks on the "necessary" training.

    Note: I am not saying that you or anyone else has spent any money to be taught DI. Many claim to have learned things on their own. However, those who earn money teaching such skills must eliminate the idea of randomness from the equation. Otherwise, they have no customers.
     
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  15. von duck, Nov 19, 2017

    von duck

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    That's correct Ma'am, that's exactly what he was saying, he "only plays never":confused: now turn the computer off, and go play with your dolls, Ma'am.:)
     
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  16. James Hall, Nov 19, 2017

    James Hall

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    I have a post coming your way , give me a few minutes
     
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  17. lone irish digit, Nov 19, 2017

    lone irish digit

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    Great post James. Tabletop accidentally invented the Pre-post Reply and now James accidentally invented the "two minute warning" post.
     
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  18. James Hall, Nov 19, 2017

    James Hall

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    I do not recall saying I NEVER play
    What I mean by perfect is , I have 2 positions on a craps table from which I will throw dice , if neither of those are available I walk
    Before I play I scout the tables , there are a bunch I can play , the bounce characteristic of the table must be very very similar to or exactly like that of mine .
    otherwise I will not play on that table
    I will not play a 14 foot table , 12 foot tables are PERFECT for me
    These and other conditions I require , must be met otherwise I will not play
    any variation of those rules makes conditions less than acceptable / PERFECT for my purposes and I will not play
    Perfect conditions seems to be a stretch perhaps but it's what I require
    CLOSE AIN'T GOOD ENOUGH
    TDVegas likes your post , he monitors this and other forums so he can log
    my playing time ,
    He likes to keep up , "that little dickens"
     
    #118
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  19. James Hall, Nov 19, 2017

    James Hall

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    I got ready to start and had to quickly answer Fred P
    Now I am back to another poster
     
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  20. FredP

    FredP Member

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    As a curiosity, you mention 12-14 people at a table; how do you get that many on a 12' table?
    I play on a 12 footer and all you can get is ten people really squashed together.
     
    #120