Surviving on a \$200 to \$300 Bankroll

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by SevenOut, Nov 11, 2012.

1. basicstrategy777, Mar 4, 2014

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Amen SevenOut....Amen.

777

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2. SevenOut, Mar 9, 2014

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Somewhere on the Forum I had typed up a "Dice Pyramid" that indicated the dice outcomes for the 2 through 12. If someone finds it, I would appreciate that it be "cut and pasted" onto a future post.

There are many critics of a \$200 to \$300 bankroll, but I believe that is the bankroll used by the majority of "recreational Craps Players." If you are winning... there is no further need of a larger bankroll. If you are losing... you may never have a bankroll large enough to... lose playing Craps. I say "playing" loosely, as when I am at a Craps Table it is serious business and this is where my entire focus of thought remains, until I color up and quit, or leave with a pittance of my original bankr0ll.

Discussed in Advanced Craps is always the Dice Influencing, Dice Control, Dice Setters and other techniques of arranging the pair of dies to "favorable outcomes." This is the primary interest of all Craps Players.... favorable outcomes. If I am at the Craps Table and anyone is shooting the dice and their outcomes are following MY BETS... I do not care how it is being done or if any effort is being made to "influence the dice or even one die".

But... if you take the Dice Pyramid you will see that in the middle is the combinations that make up a total of SEVEN... which occurs... "statistically" six times our of 36 possible outcomes. Statistically is an important term. This is if the pair of dice were to be tossed forever... the outcomes would become very close to the "mathematical outcomes of a pair of dies with six sides".

We, and myself is included among the we... are NOT interested in the "statistically or mathematical outcomes of the Dice Pyramid". We have a totally "warped" concept of these outcomes.

We want the dice outcomes to be... outside of the mathematical expectations. A deviation of expectations.

This deviation of outcomes of a pair of six sided dies is in the mind of every Right Side Bettor, aka Pass Line Bettor. This is why there are so many Pass Line Systems that want to take advantage of any major deviation of expected dice combinations. If I had \$25 on the Hard Eight and it rolled four times in a row... that is an extreme deviation of the Dice Pyramid. A Four rolling 4 times in seven rolls... Three elevens in a row. Six sevens in a roll on a Come Out roll and then a Point Seven Out PSO.

If we concentrate on our EXPECTATION OF DEVIATIONS... then everything makes sense. The Dice Influencing players intend to deviate from the mathematical norms to distort the "Outcome Pyramid" versus the "Expected Dice Pyramid". Any aggressive Craps System is designed for these long rolls of dice combinations that do not resemble the mathematical expectations (The Dice Pyramid outcomes).

I want the dice NOT TO BEHAVE AS THE CASINO WOULD LIKE!

Because of the Casino's expectations that the dice WILL be within the norms... the dice must be perfect cubes, and they will operate their table to make CERTAIN the dice ARE random in their outcomes.

This should be WHY you must have a Craps System or Game Plan. You are playing for the dice not to behave. Even if you are setting the dice with skill or just for no reason at all... we all share... well most Craps Systems, excluding the Don't Pass players... a common goal. To WIN at a game of chance, with a built in negative expectation of winning.

We WANT the dice to Deviate from OUR Expectations illustrated in the Dice Pyramid. Expecting and Experiencing occur at the Speed of Light when the dice total is called by the End Dealer. Just that mini second before one or both dies stop their motion... the Die Outcome is Set. Our goal is to catch these "quirks" in the mathematical outcomes and our betting strategy. It may not happen often, but it does. This is why a Craps Player must be focused for the opportunity to take advantage of what we recognize as a aberration and make the best of that moment in time.

#82
Last edited: Mar 9, 2014
3. basicstrategy777, Mar 10, 2014

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In the short term, deviation from the statistical norm and the 7 rolling at just the right time ( luck ) is the only chance we have. For a player to "pounce' when these confluence of events occur requires that a player possess many qualities. If he has them, the chances are very good he will leave a winner.

777

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4. SevenOut, Mar 10, 2014

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777. I did forget that occurrence of the SEVEN coming after a Point is made, versus BEFORE...

How many of us can remember the shooter making Point and on the Come Out throw a Seven Front Line Winner. This has been discussed in previous posts but WHERE the seven is thrown in the sequence can make very LARGE differences in leaving as a BIG winner... or sometimes just making enough on the previous roll... to quit for the day.

When the Seven, Front Line Winner occur, the dealers take the Flat Bets off the table as they are always working (odds are Off, unless called Working)... Place Bets are OFF on the Come Out or if called Off on a or any rolls, or called Working on the Come Out. So many options, so little time to think...

Craps is complicated and the minute "ins and outs" can confuse even the experienced. What else have I missed?

#84
5. Grizzoola, Mar 10, 2014

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This is the truth of the matter. We all know (or should) the Pyramid, negative expectations, etc. Yes, those negatives work out in the "long" run. But, our play is only in the short run, and in those short runs (our sessions), we HOPE that THIS time, we'll fortunately (luckily) be in on a major deviation. Problem is, we don't know when such deviations will occur, and many are trying to predict that or "control" it, despite the fact that when those dice bounce off the pyramided (pun not intended) back wall, no one knows how they will settle on the table.

The casinos are in it for the very long run, and their math says that over that time, they will profit, and they do. They have been profiting many decades & will do so in the long run. It's we individuals, who play in the short run, that can profit or lose less, depending on how much or if the dice DEVIATE enough during our sessions for us to profit or CONFORM enough to the neg. expectations for us to lose.

It's this uncertainty and the anticipation of each roll of the dice that attracts us to this game, plus a lot of other aspects of a live table that give us pleasure, if not profit. It's also good money management. As always, it's always more fun to beat the odds rather than for them to beat us.

#85
6. SevenOut, Mar 18, 2014

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A friend and I would "visit" some of the Kansas City's "finest" Casinos...regularly. I was working up some kind of tight System to catch those long rolls with Place Bets, Hard Ways and Pass Line/Odds. By this time my game developed into the \$200/\$300 Hit and Run System... He played a Pass Line and Come Bet game with odds. And this went on for some time. He an accountant for a large Petroleum Company and myself running a Gaming and Supply operation at the moment.

By the time I left Kansas City, which is a wonderful metro area with great Casinos and table minimums, I was pretty much convinced that my game was the BEST aggressive Craps Game I could use for MY best interests. And I still do play this game for decades. I enjoy it and am comfortable... winning or losing... it reduces some of the Casino's edge from the game that the Casino always "owns".

My friend began wagering "Hop Bets", Craps/Eleven and mostly inside Stick bets. I remember one game especially. I was playing my game and his high House Advantage bets and he was racking up the chips! I was being squeezed out what was left of my bankroll and I backed out of the game. He eventually quit... as misery loves company... but won... and impressive enough to make an impression on my Craps Theology...

I do not play Kansas City any longer and I wonder if my friend still plays this wild game with a chain saw... but I wish him well. Yes... this System does not guarantee anyone any winnings. No more than the center stick bets are any better.

I will stick with my game and he with his probably more exciting game. But... do not be fooled by one Session at a table and change a well studied system that you are comfortable. Do experiment with new ideas, but try it first at home on a layout. If it works at home... then give it a run at the Casino. Maybe I will be playing next to you and be watching your chip rack thicken up, while mine is depleted. Do it often... and I will make good use of my time to watch and find out how this is going to work for ME!

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7. KokomoJoe4, Apr 7, 2014

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As we all know, any method of play can be and is at times successful. Unfortunately, more frequently the experience will be unsuccessful - at least this is what the math tells us.

IF the game is played only as one line bet, either direction, without odds, the math is such that we can likely play tens of thousands of hands and still have a statistical chance, considering calculated standard deviations and variance, to be ahead. Not likely, but possible. When you get up to the hundreds of thousands of hands, it calculates as almost impossible to be ahead. In the millions, impossible is the word.

While taking or laying laying odds will improve these calculations, what effect do you think some (actually all) of our other "favorite" bets have on the calculated possibility of success?

I am no authority on this game, but in ten years of frequent play I am ahead. Not by a significant amount considering the time involved, but ahead. There are no "influencial skills" involved with my play. That leaves two possibilities (1) Luck and (2) Method.

You guys know how I play - this has to be of some help with respect to conservation of funds - but the biggest factor clearly is luck.

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8. SevenOut, May 7, 2014

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This simple system works fine at a Bubble Craps game! My wife's first Bubble Craps session almost tripled her \$100 bankroll with minimum wagers had she not become the "shooter" and promptly lost on a Point-Seven Out.

Positives:

# The dice are random outcomes.
# You have limited time to make bets, so are not doing foolish high percentage house wagers.
# There is NO negative or positive Dice Control behavior to consider when playing this \$200/\$300 or even \$100 System.
# Nobody is counting your bankroll, your betting wagers or critical of your handling of the dice. Peeping Tom Players thinking that racking up rent money in chips for show, but playing \$100 Bankroll games impresses fellow Craps Players. Leaving after a \$50 loss.
#... and Bubble Craps is as much fun for the Large Bankroll and the Small Bankroll Players, alike.

The Bubble Craps machine can be set by the Casino for any minimum bet and odds the Casino is interested. Incorrect Odds or Place Bets are paid down to the last cent... so paid correctly even if you make a mistake in a wager! I suspect that these machines are put onto the floor of the Casino for a percentage, rather than outright purchase. I watched a smoothly operating machine and eager eyes watching for the "POP" of the dice!

A \$5 minimum Bubble Craps gives you plenty of flexibility in increasing or decreasing your flat bets, contract or not. You can play any System and not be judged as some nut job by other players. Have some money to risk and want to test it out...

Bubble Craps Bankrolls from \$100 and UP. With the Pass Line odds at 3X... it beats the 2X table games... if any Casino can pull that off any longer... is the weak player position when you are winning and want to risk a bit of the winnings on a good roll.

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9. SevenOut, Jun 16, 2014

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This Bankroll and Aggressive Wagering is ONLY for Dice Deviates, like myself. Somewhere I posted how this worked while at the Sandia Casino in Albuquerque, NM and Las Vegas, NV several weeks ago. After three sessions, losing \$24 at the Sandia Casino and winning \$686 in Las Vegas... I QUIT and left the winnings in my wallet. It is still there as a reminder that when you are on a winning streak... keep the winnings for another day. I watched some games, one where the shooter by himself made 5 points and missed the 6th, winning \$135 on his \$1 Fire Bet. Sure, I wished I had money on the table, but... watching this shooter win was good enough for me!

Had I been more aggressive on my Hard 6 and Hard 8 wagers, leaving them sitting at \$5 each, when I should have been at \$10, the winnings would have been even better. But... like most... I felt the roll(s) that were paying off had to quit and was getting ready for the SevenOut. But... you have to consider what you have won, how much additional risk late in a hand I want and what to do once the Seven cleans off the cloth.

It IS possible to catch a roll with numerous Hardway 4, 6, 8 and 10's. I never wonder why this occurs, when other times they NEVER show up. The Full Monte System I always play is aggressive when the inside numbers are hitting and also can be aggressive to lose when it is PSO! That is the beauty of the system. \$100 to \$200 at a Craps buy in and losing it will not force you to sell the farm or take a Pawn Shop Loan. But... if you are winning... your bankroll increases as does your wagers being pressed during a hot session at the table.

I play for the Dice Deviation from the statistical norms you see graphed and put into House Advantage percentages. This applies to a Live Craps Table and Bubble Craps. To me, there is no difference, but at times the Bubble Craps can keep you from some impulsive last moment wager pressing. Sometimes good. Sometimes bad timing.

That is why the smart gambler who can stomach the numerous decision making during play, loves this battle against the House Odds.

#89
10. SevenOut, Aug 6, 2014

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IF you have accumulated some time with the \$200 / \$300 Bankroll, take a look at the CSX Controlled Shooting Excellence. There are some very real conversations on DI Dice Influencing or DC Dice Control. I prefer to call BOTH Controlled Shooting Excellence. I do believe the results are very close and within +1.5% to -1.5% of actual results and statistical expectations.

When you pick up the pair of dice and rotate them before you shoot... YOU ARE CHANGING THE OUTCOME. Read the CSX debate with DI conversations. Take your Bankroll Logic, the Full Monte System discussed in Advanced Craps and put them all together with the CSX philosophy.

You will have just grasped the understanding to WINNING at the Craps Table.

-A solid System is most important.
-An aggressive wagering plan with the \$200 /\$300 Bankroll
-and... *Controlled Shooting with or without intent for a particular outcome.

IF a Dice Influencer tells you are "crazy" and CSX is a hoax... they have just condemned their DI experience and admitted that the Dice cannot be influenced. I say the dice are INFLUENCED just by altering their position when the Stickman pushed the pair to you.

Even when I pick a pair of dice... the top pips influence which pair I want. I especially like the 4-4 or the 3-3 pair if possible. Why... just my weakness for always betting on them and making sure there are 4's and 3's. That is my excuse.

*With or without intent for a particular outcome. This would include about 90% of ALL Craps Players who are shooting.

#90
11. SevenOut, Aug 17, 2014

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Grizzola posted this in the Beginner Zone:
I recently played a session with a \$200 BR at a \$10 table. I used the standard PL with 1x odds. I did well with that, \$20 per bet. At times I was sorely tempted to make a \$10 come bet, as well, for a total of \$30 at risk. I prefer two numbers with not so much on each number rather than putting a lot on one number. Just me, I guess.

At any rate, what do any of you think? Would you put \$30 on the table at one time with that BR at a \$10 table?
I'm not interested in place bets, at this point.
********
Grizzola is playing closer to the "expected" Bankroll Management options with a \$200 Bankroll. There is NO wrong or right way to play with two numbers at a \$10 Minimum table. If the table is cold... you are content. If the table is hot, you might have missed an opportunity. This is why you must be flexible in how much you have wagered on the Craps Table.

Playing only a maximum of \$30 can be managed better by a slight addition to take advantage of a "long roll".

My suggestions for flexibility:

-Once point is established ANY ODD(s) is wise. 1X is a bit lean, but if it fits your game strategy... so be it. When it is a Seven Out you lose less. When Point is made you win and increased your Bankroll.

-Do not play the Come once Point is established. You are probably working with the thought that the 11 will roll for a win, a Seven Out is rolled for a Come win but an overall \$20 loss on the Pass Line. Play positive Craps. Do not make wagers that "hedge your wins/losses". PLACE THE SECOND BET. It if hits once, you are paid and if it hits twice, you are paid again. The Come moves to the number, hits the second time and you get paid only ONCE. The Come Bet is a contract bet and cannot be called down. The Place Bet can be taken down upon your request, or turned OFF for a roll or two if you want.

-Whenever you have a 4, 6, 8 or 10 as a Point or Place Bet... throw \$1 or more on the Hardway. Although the hardways have a higher House Advantage built into the payout, they still pays \$9 or \$7 for \$1. There is no "fixed" rule that hardways do not show up more often than expected and in clusters. Why? If I knew, I would take advantage of them every time!

-STRATEGY when your Place Bet has hit the first time... Since none of us can predict the future rolls... take the winnings and make a SECOND Place Bet. If the Place Bet can be played with a \$1 Hardway wager... do it too. Risk is part of the winning attitude at Craps.

If your place bets are getting repeated wins... pull some of the winnings off the table into your Bankroll, if not all. Once your Bankroll is back to the chip total you had when this Session began, take some profit... and then Press your Pass Line Odds or Press a Place Bet or... add ONE more Place Bet and go for it. You might decide to Press up a Place Bet instead. Passive wagering during a long roll defeats your opportunity to add winnings to your Bankroll when... games are short. Or very short... Point Seven Out is the mother of killers to a Bankroll.

Your \$200 bankroll winning 50% is \$100. The High Roller with \$1000 must win \$500 to be even with you mathematically. Do not expect to win BIG with minimal wagers... but be conscious of the fact that you must think in percentages and not in chip "dollar" totals.

When YOU are wagering. YOU are not judged by the other players by HOW MUCH YOU WAGER, but HOW YOU PLAY.

What you do, when winning, always determines how successful you are playing Craps. You might have your butt kicked good one Session, come back in a week playing the same strategy and double your bankroll... and now even.

PLAY TO WIN. If your heart beat is up and your perspiration is noticeable... your game fits you well. When the game(s) become mundane... press up the smart wagers to where you can handle the extra stress. As you gain confidence in your game plan... your wins will be larger and your losses will be managed by quitting and taking a second look at your System of Play.

Good Luck. Your question is not one of a beginner. You are now getting into more dangerous aspects of Craps that an Advanced Player understands.

#91
12. Grizzoola, Aug 17, 2014

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I'll keep your post in mind, 7Out. Thanks.

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13. DeMango, Aug 17, 2014

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And if you go with that \$15 pass, \$10 don't, your \$10 odds becomes 2X odds!

#93
14. SevenOut, Sep 17, 2014

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My Craps game was going so well at the Wind River Indian Reservation Casino, Riverton, Wyoming, I picked up two Blue Heelers and a trailer to live while traveling to Casinos to play. With luck I will be able to get to Las Vegas with my \$200 bankroll, wife, two dogs, trailer, tow vehicle and find a place to park all of us for some time this winter.

Of course, some of this has some truth in it, and some of it... well, is also true. This also applies to this \$200/\$300 Bankroll System.

Have you ever received a Gift Card from someone you never met for \$250? Probably not. Have you ever received an insider phone call about a stock about to jump 25% tomorrow five hours after the Dow opens? Probably not.

Then, why do you question a FREE OFFER of a Craps System that can actually WIN?

The time I soloed in a US Army a helicopter in 1970... many things go through your mind. Like... am I going to crash this piece of shit in Texas and all that will be left are my two dog tags and the steel bolts that hold this aluminum and plastic, abused training chopper together. I did it. Survived to make posts on the Craps Forum and swore that Bull Shit was not in my personality.

This is exactly the feeling you will experience when you practice the System at home and then SOLO. You listen to advice on how to ... play smart Field Bets, but are afraid to play CRAPS. This System is simple. You can make changes in seconds by increasing, decreasing or maintaining current wagers on the table.

If I ran an advertisement in Gambling Times and sold my System for \$300, \$1500... would it be a "swell deal"? The most vulnerable Craps Players are those with the least experience. True.

... these are the same individuals who go for the sucker advice. Once you have been past the gullible and sucker stage... you might even consider yourself a Craps PLAYER. Any fool can play Craps. The Casino wants YOU! The Boxman knows a sucker when one steps up to play. The Dealers know. The sarcastic grey hairs playing a smart Craps Game... know. You are not fooling anyone. Put on that \$20 gold 1894 Double Eagle coin Corum watch with the 18k band. You do not get one of these by being the stooge. So do not play a stooge at a Casino Craps Table.

Don't expect to win every time, but when you are winning... you make the best of it and never give back more of your winnings just to get time at the table. This is the game of the Sucker... more time.

I am not selling a book. I am not expecting to make any friends among the hustlers within the Craps industry. I do tell it like it is and Craps is a game that will bankrupt you, your family and your future. You must play smart. This System is the smartest game plan I have been able to lock onto and never waiver.

Play this System like a Chopper Pilot. Take some risk for big gains when they come your way. Some day you will run out of bankroll and need to auto rotate softly into a field to recover for another day at the table. Be a door gunner. Be a hard core grunt with a M15 on auto. Take your wins and quit before the dice have time to take it all back from you. Come back on your schedule. Never play for time.

If you play Craps for a life time and almost or break even... you are a success. Write your book. Sell your System. Find a thousand suckers who are grasping for anything... But until then, grab the stick, get the rotors up to RPM and be a Craps Player... next time you step up to the table.

Thank you for reading and I think I have said more than enough.

#94
15. far out, Oct 28, 2014

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sir, I have read your comment and would like to add mine. when I have a positive run going I will put green chips in my pocket and they do not go back on the table in that session. I call it garaging but you may have another term. I find it works well for me. I have heard some dealers make comments about this but I persevere anyway. its my money I figure. please respond to this if you will?.. far out

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16. far out, Oct 28, 2014

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To (7 out) ,my bank roll on a session is usually 100 buy in with another 100 for reserves. if I have some hits with my first spell I stick with it as long as I feel good about it. An old timer told me that when you start to feel out of sorts, its time to get off the table. I prefer to get on 5 min tables or less. . I may raise my bets if I can do it with the winnings I'm getting. when the table gets cold it will be pretty obvious. I will head for another table or casino. Does any of this make sense to you, ( 7 out)...far out

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17. KokomoJoe4, Oct 28, 2014

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Fantastic post Seven out. Surprised this is the first I've read it, and the damned thing is over a month up.

Excellent advice. Think about a method of play. Try it at home to see how it works. Take it to the table, but don't count on similar results. This is a game of chance which has buried more than one expert.

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18. SevenOut, Nov 4, 2014

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Far Out said:
To (7 out) ,my bank roll on a session is usually 100 buy in with another 100 for reserves. if I have some hits with my first spell I stick with it as long as I feel good about it. An old timer told me that when you start to feel out of sorts, its time to get off the table. I prefer to get on 5 min tables or less. . I may raise my bets if I can do it with the winnings I'm getting. when the table gets cold it will be pretty obvious. I will head for another table or casino. Does any of this make sense to you, ( 7 out)...far out
**********
Never play blind... with "feelings". Never "feel" that the next session will be a... loser. This is confidence that the game is not going your way matters little if it is in one Casino, the next Casino or two weeks later at another Casino. Have you ever felt a Hard Eight was going to be rolled, so put \$10 on it and it was a Nine? So you split the \$10 to a \$5 Hard Eight and a \$5 Hard Six... and it is a Nine.

A \$100 Bankroll works with this system on a \$5 table. Probably longer if the table has been choppy. It will last as long as a \$10 table minimum and \$200/\$300 Bankroll, if the table is choppy and you are slowly losing bankroll after one shooter to the next.

If you are winning... you play until you begin to lose your winnings and stop to mitigate further losses. Five minutes is a bit short... but if the dice are moving fast... you will have had plenty of time to know how the game is going.

Play "percentage", not chip totals in the chip rail. A \$1,000 player wins \$100 and a \$100 player wins \$10... it is the SAME percentage. That is the secret to remain a winner is not to have high expectations to start with \$100 and leave with \$1000.

I, personally, had been beaten down to my last \$25 or \$30 of a \$300 bankroll with \$200 still in my wallet at the Ameristar Casino at Kansas City, Missouri. My two Craps buddies were going for broke and I backed off, having enough of this losing action.

Wouldn't you know it that the table immediately turned hot. The table filled up and I watched.... watched both of them recover, make money and talked about it all the way out of the Casino...

So... a cold table or a hot table can change immediately with the next shooter. Feeling that the table is cold... is just that... feeling. It is a fact that the dice have been losing, but there is no meter running to indicate if and when the table turns... hot.

If anyone of us could predict when a table turned hot or cold, we would be at the Craps table using that knowledge. But... nobody does. Your guess is as good as the next persons's guess.

When you play a \$5 minimum with a \$100 bankroll with the other \$100 in your wallet, you are minimizing your risk of losing your entire \$200. If you are winning... bankroll is not under threat.

Craps is the only Casino Table Game that has unlimited ways to play, but the dice are confined to the mathematics without wavering. You play your game consistently and each roll will determine your next wagering, and the next, and the next...

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19. SevenOut, Nov 16, 2014

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After shaking off some excess caffeine onto another questionable Thread on the DI Threads, I then realized something so startling and unexpected.... NO DI HAS EVER POSTED ON THIS THREAD. Or if one has, I must have missed it.

You do realize that a \$200 to \$300 bankroll for a DI is "chicken feed". Imagine, gasp... a \$100 bankroll. To them, we are a plugged up stool in a Casino restroom. Just in their way. Move along buddy... move out of my sight.

Disclaimer: I PLAY CRAPS BECAUSE I GET MY MONEY'S WORTH OF ENJOYMENT OUT OF PLAYING.

ONLY Dice Influencers seem to make the big wins. We stool pluggers need to get a life, like maybe playing the penny video slot machines. Yet, I have never in my tormented life seen a DI nor watched someone predicting the outcome of each roll or even every other roll.

It is almost like some Saturday western movie for the kids to enjoy and pay for popcorn and corn candy to fatten the take for the theatre (DI). WE, the \$100 to \$300 Bankroll Players ARE the Craps Players that are the hardest to screw out of their money at a Craps Table! Yeah... you might be chewing tobacco and spitting it into a paper cup... but the Casino depends on your losing and even, winning some times at their tables.

Playing Craps is not much different than going hunting out of State. Buy your Elk license for \$450, a guide for \$500, \$350 air fare, \$125 car rental, etc. etc. and come back with some frost bite and sleep deprivation. And after sleeping it off at home for two days, you discover you are still... Alive. And... enjoyed every minute with the others that came back with only... good memories and headaches.

Develop a SYSTEM that fits your personality and tolerance for chip exposure at the table. After that, work on Dice Control or Dice Chucking. It is all the same to me... random outcomes.

#99
20. SevenOut, Nov 21, 2014

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Amzngguy had a posted an interesting response in the Dice Influencing Thread several days ago.

By trying to set the dice to throw EVEN numbers, if the possibility of eliminating the ratio of outcomes for the Seven from 6 out of 36 rolls to 5, that is an increase of about 2.7% gain against the Craps Table's built in advantage.

I was comparing the DI's 4, 6, 8 and 10 at 44% of total possible outcomes to the \$100, \$200, \$300 System that covers 50% of total possible dice outcomes. Amzngguy than adds this and I figure it at 46.7% by eliminating ONE Seven from expected outcome statistics. Also "milking" the Hard 4, 6, 8 & 10, I suppose.

Eliminating one Seven does not prevent a Point Seven Out (PSO) nor a Seven Out (SO). It is WHERE the Seven is rolled in the sequence from Point to finish.

It is true that on a long roll, having ALL of the numbers covered will guarantee a win... unless the 5/36 Seven versus the 6/36 Seven's are thrown and you will lose... Big Time as you did not have enough coming back into your bankroll as you had placed onto the table. Just WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE playing all SIX numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10).

Taking the center of the Craps Watermelon- 5, 6, 8, 9 are the most likely to be rolled by a Random Dice Chucker. No DI skills involved and the mathematics is simple 18 winners/ 12 neutrals and 6 Seven Losers possible on each roll. It is WHERE the Sevens are thrown in the sequence. Not WHEN, but where.

Get that through your head right now. The Seven is not your 100% of the time bad guy. It can be a Front Line Winner, Point to making Point, and then another Front Line Winner, Front Line Winner.

The Point Seven Out is the "ultimate" loser for the aggressive player. It does not happen as often as one is lead to believe. You just remember the PSO because of the big loss.

Some Thread I asked that you Dice Chuckers record ten random shots, then another ten random shots and compare the 20 results against YOUR SYSTEM. Circle where the SEVEN appears and how your game would have worked out. The PSO is not commonly found among these twenty rolls. Is it? Or... was it?

You have to maintain a steady consistent wagering or you defeat the entire System of Playing.

Example: You are playing with a \$300 bankroll wagering System. A PSO is thrown, so you get worried and drop the wagers 50% due to the previous big loss. It takes longer to recover the previous loss if this next roll is hitting repeating inside numbers. Much like an example I gave on flipping a coin for head or tails and YOU go from heads, to tails, to heads and not consistent, you can lose 100% of the time. By keeping the game and holding steady with one side or the other, you will eventually be closer to 50% in the long run. As there is NO House Percentage taken out of flipping a coin.

Craps has a House "interest" in every payout. If you lose it is 100%. If you win, you can find the percentages on each TRUE ODDS and the Payoff. Even if you win half the time and the house wins half the time... you will always be SHORT. (I use the winning half and half as a crude example.)

So STAY THE COURSE ON THE \$100, \$200 - \$300 SYSTEM. By cutting your wagers you are playing with Scared Money and you WILL NEVER CATCH THAT LONG SERIES OF INSIDE NUMBERS AND HARD WAYS with you maximum wagers working for you.

It sounds counter productive. It is not. Play aggressive, Play for the shortest amount of time... and Quit with your winnings.

You will be coming back anyways, but the best the majority of Craps Players could ever dream of doing IS:

TO BREAK AS CLOSE TO EVEN OVER A LIFETIME.

Edited to add: Since Amzngguy's DI Theory eliminated ONE SEVEN, the ratio percentage should be made with 5 Sevens to 35 possible (with the one Seven taken out as a possibility). Depending on how you want to use that, the percentages can be used to make it look better than it probably would be... We just need to agree that we see things differently. Use everything anyone on the Forum offers as subject to opinion. My opinion is certainly not among the majority.

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Last edited: Nov 21, 2014