Surviving on a $200 to $300 Bankroll

Discussion in 'Bankroll Management' started by SevenOut, Nov 11, 2012.

  1. SevenOut, Nov 11, 2012

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    I had given my strategy for play with a $200 bank roll on a previous post. When I say bank roll, I mean I have $200 to throw into action using my well tested game plan. Of which, I have one game plan that I tweak when I am holding more house chips in my rack than bank roll, and have pressed bets across the table in play. I play the same with a $300 bank roll in the rack, or $500. You press up your game with... HOUSE CHIPS as you are winning. If your are losing... hang in there for those good hits on your bets and begin pressing your bets up as you go. Not all, but what ever bets you... think... could be repeaters. That is what makes Craps the game of champions... well next to Poker, but that takes a different kind of talent, which I do not have.

    If you are stepping onto tables that end up being losers... $200 goes quick. I walk and might just watch. Tough to do when you love to play, but watch other players. If a game goes hot... you already missed the "past plays" and if you step in after the fact, it could be the ultimate cleaning out of your future game play. A losing table, $1000 can go quick with the play that a bank roll of $1000 demands. If you want to toss $1000 onto a table and play $5 bets, all of the players and... dealers know you are no threat. Even the Boxman will not give you a second thought on your game card. You just think people are impressed with lots of green chips with the reds and white/blue $1 chips in table play, they aren't. The table pays the same odds no matter the color of the chip(s) in play. Although having green chips hitting multiple times is a very... pleasant experience. Leaving with them in your pocket is another story.

    Only play what you can afford to lose. That way you do not play conservative when you should be pressing bets during a hot roll. I have been down to my last bit of bank roll, a four becomes point and I put all of my chips out on the table with my 6/8 placed, 6/8 hardways and a hard 4. Anything left over goes onto my Pass Line odds on the 4. If you lose, it was an effort deserving someone with a mind of steel! But, if the 6's and 8's are hitting, and some hard and then the 4 comes in hard for a Pass... you color up and step off the table for a breather. Scared Money is the term the dealers use when a player chokes up and will not back off the table. Play to Win. And if you win big, if the Pit Boss is watching and finds you with some house money with your ambitious play... ask for that FREE BUFFET or show ticket. Casinos LOVE winners. They come back to play and tell their friends how nice the dealers are at that Casino.

    At the worst. If you are leaving as a winner or loser after your game, ASK for some canceled dice. Great hobby and some day they might be worth something! At least practice at home your game plan and see if it is solid... winning more than losing at home. Over the long haul of playing Craps, if you break even over a lifetime of playing... you did BETTER than all of the BSers that NEVER lose at Craps. Those pesky pairs of dice cannot be trusted to pay off a dividend when you have bets on the table, but it sure beats playing other table games, doesn't it?
     
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  2. CubyTuesday, Nov 11, 2012

    CubyTuesday

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    I believe 30x min table limit is the ideal bankroll. My casino has $10.00 min, therefore a $300.00 bankroll.
     
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  3. mrsmooth, Dec 31, 2012

    mrsmooth

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    In blackjack I like to bring 3x the table maximum and in craps 2x the table maximum
     
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  4. goatcabin, Jan 11, 2013

    goatcabin

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    The "ideal" size of bankroll is a function of one's "risk of ruin", determined according to one's play, including bets made, size of bets and desired length of the session. Simulation of the easiest way to figure "risk of ruin". Run 10 or 20,000 sessions in WinCraps with a given starting bankroll and see how often you bust, then decide whether that is acceptable. You can do all sorts of experiments, using different bankrolls (i.e. stop-loss), and/or setting a win goal and stopping if it's reached. This will teach you a lot more about money management, i.e. what are the effects of different combinations of stop-loss/win goal.

    If you bring enough money to the table so that you can't bust within your desired playing time, and don't stop when reaching some win goal, your theoretical results will be symmetrical around the expected loss of your session. IOW, all the sessions will end based on how long you feel like playing, i.e. until you get bored, have to eat, pee or sleep. I generally don't play more than two hours at a time, but I'm a woos. >:)

    Some people think that if you put in a strict stop-loss, you just cut off the left end of the distribution without affecting the other end. This is false. You are not only eliminating sessions where you lost more than that, but sessions in which your luck changed and you came back to win. Same thing with a win goal -- you eliminate sessions in which you got ahead by that amount but lost it back, but also sessions in which you continued to win.

    Money management really boils down to understanding what you are playing for. How long do you want to play? How much are you willing to lose at a session? How much risk are you willing to take that you will lose that amount? How much of a win will satisfy you?

    For myself, I take as much to the table as I am willing to lose, but with a relatively low probability of busting. I set a win goal, but if I reach it I don't just stop; I put all but a couple of rounds' worth aside and set another goal. If I lose, I stop. If I reach the next goal, I repeat the process. I never stop after a win, but I never lose back more than about 20% of the latest win goal. I wrote a "C" program that takes as input your betting method, bankroll, win goal and percentage of win goal to risk, then simulates however many sessions you want. You learn a lot with experiments like these.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  5. mrsmooth, Jan 11, 2013

    mrsmooth

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    Well, I see the 'goat hearder' is attempting to now teach Bankroll Management. FYI, very little of what you just splattered on the forum is true. I don't mean to be negative but when some idliot makes idiotic comments on other threads without any knowledge of the game that same idiot needs a lesson in manners. Mr. Shank-er, you are that idiot. I have NEVER met anyone upset with winning 1k/day consistently (except Alan Shank-er).

    Your comments about not stopping after reaching a goal are COMPLETELY WRONG. Almost 100% of the time those who don't stop when they hit a goal give it all back and more. And for you to even suggest 'never stop after a win'...that too, is just plain dumb. The probability of another win after a win demonstrates guys like you who chase wins after wins end up complete losers. " The chips are only good.....when they are in the wood". Most craps players play (incorrectly) by seeking streaks by positive progressive betting and end up leaving more on the felt than kin the wood. Negative progressive bettors (Martingale bettors like Mr. Shank-er) win 90% but when they lose once, their ONE LOSS is 400% more than their aggreggrate wins. Casinos send jets for players who use the Martingale system. If you have a strategy and it wins, take it down and move to the next strategy as needed or triggered to adapt to the ever changing table conditions . Remember, 'water seeks its own level' meaning that the side wth the mathematical advantage WILL ALWAYS WIN OVER TIME....so take your short term win and put it in the wood. You will NEVER win consistently at craps using one system or one strategy (despite what Mr. Shank-er states).

    Simply put, if you cannot win 1k per day consistently with a 5k-10k bankroll playing blackjack, craps or baccarat, than you should take up lawn bowling, croquet, or perhaps knitting.

    Also, remember that if you want to win the war you MUST have the bullets (BANKROLL). The confidence of having far more than you need is key to winning because you cannot win if you do not feel you can win. Don’t show up to the gunfight battle with a knife or BB gun. Additionally, I have never met a player who can buy a system on-line, read the strategy, and go to the casino and win consistently. Personally, I sit side-by-side with my clients at all times so that they may know when to switch strategies using ”˜triggers’ based on variable counts.

    In order to win consistently at craps one must follow some VERY OBJECTIVE rules and guidelines. Let me give you some very sound and PROVEN advice. One can win 1k/day EVERYDAY playing craps with a 5k bankroll is one takes winning very seriously. In Las Vegas, there are several of us Professionals who do this daily....but, it takes EXTREME discipline and money management skills....Here is what I teach ALL my clients at the tables.
    Read below and feel free to comment.

    1. In order to win consistently, one may have multiple strategies or what is called a 'combinatorial system'. These combinatorial systems MUST be able to tactically adapt to changing table conditions & player conditions.
    2. The casino is a hostile environment and must be treated as such at all times no different than ”˜Waging Business Warfare’ in day-to-day competitive business.
    3. One must be fluent in pre-game preparation. Before I buy in, I:
    a. Look at table size
    b. Feel table surface
    c. Checkout what table positions are open
    d. Check out the color of chips and bankroll sizes in each player’s racks.
    e. Pre-play Table Charting and note DI shooters.
    4. One must understand the complete “Rules of Being a Professional’.
    a. Discipline
    1. The professional will always play the cards and not the money.
    2. The professional understands the secret to winning understands the knowledge when to quit.
    3. The professional will quit whenever the established goal of winning per session has been reached.
    4. The professional quit playing whenever the casino atmosphere, other players, or the dealer is upsetting you.
    5. The professional quits whenever the strategically determined table stake has been lost or severely diminished.
    6. When the professional decides to quit play he removes himself entirely from the casino for at least an hour.
    7. The professional will not gamble when only a short time remains before the scheduled departure time.
    8. The professional will always set aside accumulated winnings as well as a portion of the trip bankroll.
    9. The professional must adhere to all of the money management rules: bringing an adequate trip bankroll, limiting each session to only the session bankroll, taking breaks, and keeping good accurate records at all time.
    10. The professional must recognize that long time periods of play always favors the casino. Short, well planned, playing sessions with winnings and time goals make it more feasible to consistently “walk away a winner”.
    11. The professional understands there are other good times to quit besides when winning or losing. For example:
    a. You feel the table is too hot or you feel the table is too cold.
    b. Other players are making decisions or bets that upset you.
    c. You are losing track of; or losing faith in your system or strategy.
    d. You are tired or have to ”˜pee’ and are subconsciously waiting to lose so that you can take a break.
    e. You lose some bets you feel you should have won and become tempted to over-bet or chase losses.
    12. The professional understands how to ”˜get rich in the dark’:
    a. If someone asks: “How did you do in Vegas?” Reply: “We had a lot of fun.”
    b. If someone asks: “How much money did you make?” Reply: “We did well enough to almost cover costs?”
    c. The importance of disguising you’re a winner cannot be emphasized enough. Casinos love losers.
    d. Pocket some of your winnings to appear to win less and consider cashing in chips during different shifts.

    b. Motivation & Strategy
    1. The most important attribute of a successful professional, other than discipline and patience, is the belief and self confidence that he can win.
    2. Professional playing is a business in which you must have set goals and a predetermined plan to achieve goals.
    3. The true professional tends to be low-keyed, methodical, and very goal oriented in their pursuit of profits.
    4. The professional has a plan that will have provisions for setbacks and will not allow for the free -wheeling approach that most people associate with the common gambler.
    5. In order to gamble and win, the professional must have an edge. The first step in gaining an edge is to only play at those games where your skill, expertise, or inside knowledge have taken most of the risk out of wagering.
    6. The game of choice must have a reasonable probability of being won, and it must be susceptible to the professional’s pre-planned money management strategies to overcome house advantages.
    7. Professional’s understand there are two types of gambling contests: games of skill and pure games of chance.
    8. In games of skill, the professional can gain an advantage through the use of specific expertise and understanding of the game. Examples of games of skill are horse racing, sports betting, poker and blackjack. In each of
    these games, a professional's expertise can give him an advantage over the house or the bookie.
    9. In games of chance, the professional must be concerned with the mathematical advantage the house has over the players, and he must use skill and money management to overcome this advantage.
    10. Games of chance which offer the professional a reasonable expectation of winning, and which can be beaten with skillful play and money management are casino craps, baccarat, and, to a lesser extent, roulette as it is played
    on the two zero American wheels.
    11. The true professional will zero in on one or two games and develop the skill and discipline necessary to overcome the disadvantages facing the player in these games.
    12. Not only must the professional pick & thoroughly learn the correct strategies to win at the right game, he must avoid the undue influence of the distractions so common to casino gambling. (Ie: booze, shills, & hookers)
    13. The best way to tip a dealer is to place an occasional bet for the dealer. This can be especially helpful at blackjack, where with a dealer bet riding on the next hand, the dealer may delay shuffling one or two more hands, or
    show card behind the cut card, offering the professional a chance to capitalize on favorable cards.
    14. The secret to blending in is to act friendly and talk to your fellow players, the dealer, and the floor personnel without succumbing to the negative aspects of the casino. This is Important to avoid being pegged as a pro.

    c. Bankroll Management
    1. In order to begin a career as a successful professional, you must be adequately capitalized.
    2. Professional’s determine a clear and set amount of money should be established as the bankroll fund.
    3. The professional must not be pressured because of money problems into digressing from a basic sound money management strategy.
    4. Once the professional has established his gambling stake, only a portion of this stake should be risked in a planned session or a single trip to the casino.
    5. It is recommended that the total fund be at least five times the amount required for a session or trip bankroll.
    6. For example, if a planned session or visit to the casinos requires a gambling stake of $3,000, then the gambling fund should be five times this amount, or $15,000.
    7. Consider that professional does not win every time they are engaged in a gambling contest, and an important aspect to eventually emerging a winner is to have the staying power to withstand occasional setbacks.
    8. In order to determine the amount of the bankroll required for a casino visit, professionals understand it is necessary to know the size of bets which will be made
    9. For professional progressive system players, the table stake should be the amount required to bet the system. For example, the total cumulative of the "system's" bets.
    10. When using the Matrix Betting Systemsâ„¢ one should have a bankroll at least 3x the table maximum.
    11. The professional must establish a table stake for losses. The table stake defines the limits of the maximum loss a professional can experience in one session at the tables.
    12. The professional will quit whenever his table stake has been reduced to the point that there are not enough chips left to play the system or strategy correctly.
    13. Professional’s quit playing when they have lost so much of your table stake that "normal" play is not possible.
    14. A common (and losing) approach to gambling is one followed by many losers. If they are losing, they increase their wagers to recoup previous losses. If they are winning, they also increase their wagers to increase their
    winning rate. Instead of taking this approach, the professional will place a bet in accordance with the money management rules and not vary his bets based on his current profit or loss position.
    15. The professional establishes an earnings goal for each session & for each casino trip must be reasonable and should range between 75% to 110% of your normal expected win, given your system and expected playing time

    d. Recordkeeping
    1. In order to adhere to all of these disciplines, it is essential that you keep good records of your wins and losses.
    2. A notebook should be purchased and used for record keeping.
    3. These records should not be approximations, but they should be accurate and complete.
    4. Every playing session should be recorded on a separate summary page for each casino game & system of play.
    5. The heading for the page will show the game played, the system used, and the bankroll for each game.
    6. The results for each session will be recorded on the horizontal lines with the following shown for each session: the date played, the casino, the approximate time played, and the amount won or lost.
    7. If partners are playing at the same time at the same table, then an additional column will be used so that each partner's win or loss can be recorded.
    8. A final column will summarize the net win or loss for that particular game and trip
    9. Separate summary sheets will be kept for each casino game such as different for blackjack, baccarat, or craps.
    10. A master summary sheet will be used to record the net wins and losses by game for each day of a trip.
    11. The total of the master summary sheet will show the net win or loss for a particular trip.
    12. The master summary sheet will show the targeted profit for the trip and will give the player his stopping point when this target has been reached or exceeded.
    13. The summary sheets for individual playing sessions and the master summary sheets for each previous trip may be kept by the professional player in a file or some other secure place at home,
    14. These records should not be carried with the player when he makes visits to the casino; the only records with the player should be the records for the particular trip.
    15. As a final bit of record keeping a summary of trip expenses will be kept for each trip.
    16. It is advisable that each day after the record keeping is completed, the daily winnings be set aside as well as some fraction of the original trip bankroll as money which will not be touched for the remainder of the trip.
    17. When this money has been effectively removed from play, it should be physically separated from the player's remaining bankroll. This is more of a loss prevention technique than a method to increase winnings, but it is
    important to assure the player exercises good solid discipline and sticks with his game plan.

    5. Determining Bankroll (assisted by Professional)
    1. PHYSICAL BANKROLL:
    a. Professional will make sure player will always be properly capitalized.
    b. Professional and player will determine amount player can afford to play with.
    c. Professional will review player’s:
    i. past history of gaming
    ii. average bet
    iii. win/loss history
    iv. casinos played
    v. average length of time playing
    vi. size of bets
    vii. systems & strategies
    d. Professional will determine player’s gaming stake to be risked in planned session of trip.
    e. Professional will allocate total fund to be at 3x - 5x the planned session.
    f. Professional and player determine system & strategy to be used including minimum & maximum bet size.
    g. Professional will assure player’s bankroll exceeds the total cumulative amount required to bet the system.
    h. Professional can also reverse engineer player’s bankroll depending on earnings goal.

    2. EMOTIONAL BANKROLL:
    a. Professional and player will determine player’s:
    i. risk tolerance
    ii. threshold of stress
    iii. bet size for thrill vs sweating outcome
    iv. type of player
    1. extreme player: (small bankroll with huge money goals)
    2. conservative player: (big bankroll for padding with small bets)
    3. somewhere in between player: (objective bankroll with objective goals)
    v. past size of losses & wins
    b. Once Emotional Bankroll is determined:
    1. adjust needed bankroll vs measured % of emotional risk
    2. adjust bankroll and betting strategies to win sessions
    3. adjust multiple sessions time of play to achieve money goals

    Colleagues, there is actually much more but I am literally out of charaters for this post. If you who wish to learn more or play along with me here in Vegas just PM me any time.

    Good luck to all!
    MRSmooth
     
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  6. goatcabin, Jan 11, 2013

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Aren't you in the wrong thread? Perhaps the wrong universe.
    I see this is the same post as on the other thread, so I won't bother to read that.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  7. mrsmooth, Jan 11, 2013

    mrsmooth

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    Look Alan, when you make such nit wit comments about someone's expertise or strategy as you did in the other thread you need to either step-up-to-the-plate and back your statement with facts or deal with the consequences. I've read your posts. I understand your frame of mind and play, and I submit reasonable comments accordingly WITHOUT INSULT. If you have something reasonable to say, than say it. But when you slam a Professional as you did in your prior post and then atttempt to BS players with knowledge you don't have, be prepared to eat dirt. You have never seen my play, you don't know what triggers and counts are used, and most of all, you have no idea how consistently I win or how well my clients & colleagues do daily. So no, Alan, this is the right universe, it is the correct thread, and my comments were stricly based on your grandiose about how you determine bankroll and how you play. Right thread, accurate comments. Then you go off and talk about some entry level 'c' program you wrote to determine bankroll....which in itself is irrelevant. How does your simulatons account for DI players? How does your simulation account for variable strategies pertaining to determining bankroll?
    I play in this universe right here in Las Vegas with the big boys daily. No simulations, no desk-jockey mathematics, no theoretical: All real chips, real money, completely real universe. So whatever your selling go sell it. But when you slam a Professional with my credentials ad my play record......please be prepared to back it with facts and not sme idiotic statements based on what sounded like a drinking habit. How do your silmulations account for the table energy? How do your simulations account for table surface, table length? Oh, wait, your a 'c' programmer...none of that is relevant? Tell that to a Professional DI player. Alan, how do your simulations pay the bills or buy you all the 'boy toys from consistent winnings? I digress.

    Alan, in summary, maybe if you read my posting in detail and you have comments....post away dude! There are many opinions that everyone would like to comment on. But when you make such STUPID comments as you did on the other thread that are completely without merit, be prepared to deal with the wrath of a Professional rebuke in detail on your comments.

    No hard feelings, wish you the best. And anytime you get out from behind the des;k and your simulations and decide to attempt live play here in Las Vegas I'd love to enjoy a session with you in craps.

    MrSmooth
     
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  8. SevenOut, Jan 12, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    Mr. Smooth.
    Your long and very comprehensive, detailed game plan should be required reading, before anyone can post on this Forum. Eighty percent or more of your prior Post is absolutely the best information offered by a seasoned professional. The other twenty percent can be debated and discussed by those with a differing approach to the game, but non the less, you have sucked the energy out of the entire Craps Forum into one, exceptionally well done and concise plan on game strategy.

    As I have encountered, when making a detailed account or making strategic points on play strategy, there are individuals that attack the author and not the game plan. You have defended yourself well. I enjoyed reading your game strategy and plan. I cannot think of anyone else on this entire Forum that has reached this level of a Post, as you did yesterday.

    It is one thing to criticize with reasonable counter information one or more statements on play, but to discard totally such well thought out Craps play is another thing.

    I even came out of a "self induced retirement from the Forum" to make comment to your Craps Dialogue. We may be playing in parallel universes, with the same goals, yet operating with a slightly different game plan that works for our personalities and choice to play Craps. My cowboy hat is tipped to you, with the silent western code of acknowledging that we share the enthusiasm and determination to enjoy what our life experiences have brought us, to learn our skills well and I finish to let you know... you have earned my respect on this Forum.

    Best of luck and may the dice always fall in your favor. SevenOut[/quote]
     
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    Last edited: Mar 2, 2014
  9. goatcabin, Jan 12, 2013

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Actually, there's really nothing in there about PLAYING CRAPS, except: "10. When using the Matrix Betting Systemsâ„¢ one should have a bankroll at least 3x the table maximum."

    Note the "trademark" sign. I don't think Mr. Smooth or his guru is going to get very specific about these "triggers" on this forum, because I imagine this system is for sale. I agree that many of the points constitute good advice for any gambler, but my original response was to the very short post about PROVING that one can win 1K/day consistently.

    Again, where is the Craps play in that post?
    Do you intend to buy the "Matrix Betting System(TM)"?

    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  10. SevenOut, Jan 12, 2013

    SevenOut

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    response was to the very short post about PROVING that one can win 1K/day consistently.

    Again, where is the Craps play in that post?
    Do you intend to buy the "Matrix Betting System(TM)"?

    Cheers,
    Alan Shank[/quote]

    Hello Alan,
    Again, you, Mr.Smooth and myself are using different terminology to get our point across for "reasonable, responsible Crap action." I am not a believer in controlling or setting dice, myself. Not that it cannot be done, is possible or even practical... but seeing is believing, which I have yet to see a DI approach to a game. I have watched shooters setting up their dice and also watch my chip count, which is my bottom line. I just have not encountered a shooter that was pulling chips out of the table's bank and into mine in an unusual quantity... that I suspected there was something to the "management" of the dice during his shooting.

    At least finding 80% in agreement and 20% up for serious discussion is more than I can say about some of the "hooey" I read on the Forum. What Mr.Smooth detailed in an unedited explanation was a discipline and applied to "his" or even my game strategy. I am sure if he had the time and inclination, the words could be moved around and condensed for a more definite thought, but this is coming from a mind of a player/student/professional ready to change with the dice in play. You must have the determination of an elephant and the quickness of an Eagle to anticipate any possible outcome of future play. That is playing Craps to me. Not hoarding space at a table and bitching about the shooter or stick man is slow to get the dice out in play. We just have a slight twist in our game plans, but bankroll is just a manifestation of what it takes to make one's play at a Craps table... exciting. I have lots of adrenaline built into my bankroll, win or lose, and can back off the rail whenever I choose to do so.

    No. Never, would I pay for a "system or class(es) in dice setting". Not that I would be disappointed if someone were to have a nice long run while I was playing at that table using "any technique" that would bend the natural statistical odds... in MY favor as a Pass Line/Place Bet hit and run player. Although, there was a time we/I charged "newbies" for basic Craps strategy and some "systems" that $200 to $300 bankrolls could survive over time. Nobody ever walked in and wanted to buy in for $3000 in chips to whip us senseless. It could be done with the $300 bankroll and just move the decimal point over to the right.

    Winning $1000 is equivalent to myself winning $100 at a Craps table with my $300 bankroll. I have yet to have any inclination to expose myself to moving the decimal point to the right once or twice. To each, his own. I play my $200 to $300 bankroll as Craps gives me plenty of risk and entertainment. Those who want to risk a larger bankroll are free to do so, but I do not get any additional enjoyment out of the risk nor rewards myself.

    I have not had the pleasure to follow various posts as I do get bored easily with unrealistic or followers of a particular dice manipulation or intricate systems that need plenty of excuses when a follower loses. Even for old dice degenerates as myself, learning is a continuing process. Given that Craps does not evolve into a Craps like game or into Chuck a Luck or Monopoly... I will proceed with my solid Craps action... but consider some of the really new ideas being presented by those players posts that... can add an extra boost to MY GAME. And, like yourself or Mr.Smooth let the hooey fall apart with presenting some facts, experience or actual play time in some mystical system that just might... just might be what it is being presented... as a realistic way to beat the House out of some hard earned chips from their bank... into OURS.

    Now... Cheers, Alan. Is this the UK speaking, as I do like the bird's eye dice from London and was wondering if the Brits, like the Aussies, also have the better payouts on their hardways? The 10 and 8 TO 1 payouts? Now that would be sweet music if adopted into the US!
     
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  11. goatcabin, Jan 13, 2013

    goatcabin

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    I don't think this guy is hawking dice-setting classes, SevenOut. He is hawking a betting system of some kind that purports to use "triggers" to change betting strategies and win $1000/day.

    There is a famous formula for calculating the probability of reaching a win goal, given a bankroll. Here it is:

    p(reach win goal) = WG / (BR + WG)

    So, if you start with $3000 and want to win $1000, the probability of doing so is:

    p = 3000 / (3000 + 1000) = .75

    For $500, the probability is 3000 / (3000 + 500) = .857

    Sounds pretty good, right?
    There are (at least) two problems with using this formula with craps play:
    1) it assumes a fair game, and craps is not a fair game
    2) it assumes that you play until either reaching the goal or losing the entire stake, i.e. there is no stopping point based on time

    So, it's totally unrealistic for craps, but it does tell us that the smaller the win goal relative to the bankroll, the more chance to reach it.

    Perhaps Mr. Smooth (or his guru -- Mr Smooth seems to be both) will claim that the "Matrix Betting System" turns craps into a fair or even player-advantage game, but we cannot evaluate that without, presumably, buying the system.

    However, to illustrate the principle of high bankroll, low win goal, I ran a simulation using a $300 bankroll and $50 win goal, which are proportional to $3000 and $500. As SevenOut points out, it is the same idea. I used a $5 pass line bet and 3, 4, 5X odds. The sessions ended after 300 rolls if not earlier. The results:

    20000 trials have been run. Expected Value = -0.0037.
    Bankroll of $300, busted 2566, 12.8%.
    Rolls made, avg 183.07; stddev 60.88.
    Win Goal of $50 won 15606 78.03%.
    Rolls made, avg 57.54, sd 65.36.
    Net win when reaching goal: avg $62.60, sd $10.20.
    Max rolls of 300 had 1828, 9.14%.
    Net outcome when max rolls, avg $-137.55, sd $86.83.
    Overall average result is $-2.21 SD $130.77 skew -1.64 .
    Total bets are 10542840; average bet handle $527.14 .
    Overall average HA is -0.0042 .
    15696 sessions won, 15 broke even and 4289 lost.
    Highest ending bankroll ever was 380.
    Average rolls are 96.28; average net per roll is $-0.0230 .

    So, this yielded 78.5% winning sessions, with 12.8% busts and a mean outcome of -$2.21.
    No matter what you do, the overall expectation is still edge * action.

    I am not in the UK. Are you referring to Mr. Smooth?

    BTW, the reason I said this "sounds like some sort of Martingale-like system" is that those systems also can yield a high percentage of small winning sessions, over-balanced by some large losses. Apparently, that's not what Mr. Smooth or his guru have in mind.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
    #11
  12. SevenOut, Jan 13, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    I am not in the UK. Are you referring to Mr. Smooth?

    BTW, the reason I said this “sounds like some sort of Martingale-like system” is that those systems also can yield a high percentage of small winning sessions, over-balanced by some large losses. Apparently, that’s not what Mr. Smooth or his guru have in mind.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank


    When I do business with the British or Australians/New Zealanders they end with Cheers. I have not had any Canadians end with Cheers, but usually Best Regards. The hardway bets in Australia are 10 and 8 to 1 payoffs, which I find attractive.

    I have always believed if a requirement of a large bankroll is part of a game strategy... it can be boiled down to a Martingale system. There are not a lot of basic ways to attack Casino table games.

    I do have to agree with your formula. It is basic mathematics, and when "boiled" down, it probably can stand scrutiny. The vast majority of craps players on the Forum are like myself, under $500 bankroll per game players. Not that they will run down the $500 bankroll to zero, they probably run it down to $200 and figure it is time to reassess the losses and wait it out. I will run my $200 bankroll down to zero and my $300 down to where I feel the game might... improve. Craps as a mathematical pyramid is a wonderful game and with easy to understand payouts. When you add the House Percentages, then it is no longer "honest" as you call it. An honest game of bank craps would spell bankruptcy for a Casino. You cannot have the slot machine players paying for everything, although I think they earn that honor in my view of the World.

    Many years back a group of us kept books on our play- time, bank roll, wins or loses. It is a great reference when you play often. Our objective was to at least break even over a life time and leave it at that. To make a living at a Casino game is just more than I want to tackle, even if I found a method in my madness.

    I prefer to take my chances gambling using the standard methods of inflicting pain- stocks, bonds and metals. The House Percentage is built into these as well, but no way guarantee any positive return in your money (bank roll) and time (time played at the table).

    I found your latest response very reasonable and appreciate putting your position out front for all to see. I am a simple Craps mathematics player, putting my trust in sticking my neck out only so far in the number of bets, but maximizing them when the payouts have favored my chip rack. Hit and Run players are more likely to leave as winners. In my Craps degenerate days when you did not have a Casino on every corner of a city and had to go to Las Vegas or Atlantic City... I would leave town with only pocket lint and a bad taste in my mouth from watered down 7 and 7's, offered by request while playing at the tables. Too much time at the table is a guaranteed way of being a chronic loser... at least in my game.

    We are all idiots to think the Casino likes giving up any of their chips for public relations. But we all would like to get an "edge" to reduce the house percentage and move our game around town, before any Floorman or Boxman figures out something is up with a particular player or group of players and can recall their game and faces! I think that is where Mr.Smooth is coming from and we all hope that his photo is NOT being circulated around the Casinos and security offering him and his group a FREE limo ride to a competing Casino. If you have your Casino Comp Card tossed onto the table to buy-in chips... you have already been "marked"... if you are consistently winning and it goes into the computer. When I am at a table... they know another live one has stepped up and just counting off minutes on their watch to open up the space at the table for fresh cash in action. When I am winning... the greens go into my pocket and the Boxman never is the wiser, seeing another loser back off and time at his "walk up Bank depositing station."

    Cheers...
     
    #12
  13. SevenOut, Jan 13, 2013

    SevenOut

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    I was looking through posts for any content that was attractive, and have called it a day... until I saw the advertisement on the right side of the page.

    The dice are "toy dice" on the $12.00 felt layout from a hobby shop.

    The hard four shows an 8 TO 1 payout! Obviously an Australian and probably United Kingdom Craps layout.

    As you can tell, my dignity has degenerated to criticizing advertising on the Crap Forum website... it is sad and pathetic... but I have been beyond giving a flying $#%@ for some time now! I am sure if I look closer, I can find other mind numbing discoveries. Just give me time.
     
    #13
  14. SevenOut, Jan 13, 2013

    SevenOut

    SevenOut Member

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    goatcabin - 12 January 2013 12:22 PM
    Do you intend to buy the “Matrix Betting System(TM)”?

    SevenOut - 12 January 2013 01:16 PM
    No. Never, would I pay for a “system or class(es) in dice setting”.

    I don’t think this guy is hawking dice-setting classes, SevenOut. He is hawking a betting system of some kind that purports to use “triggers” to change betting strategies and win $1000/day.


    Oops. Sorry goatcabin. I reread your post and picked up on the "triggers" and making $1000 a day. The only "triggers" I am familiar with are on firearms I own. I will have to follow more posts to understand what is meant by "triggers" and how that translates to what a player at a Craps table would find as a trigger. Obviously this is new to me and I profess my ignorance in the matter.

    I guess that leaves both of us at a loss to make any judgment(s). But Mrsmooth did present an impressive list of good information for a Craps player developing some game plan. Just... my plan was worked out after getting "free advice" as a newbie.
     
    #14
  15. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 14, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    I've taken my response to the next level. *plonk*
     
    #15
  16. The Midnight Skulker, Jan 14, 2013

    The Midnight Skulker

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    You're not the only one who has had time on his hands occasionally. See http://www.smartergamblers.com/forum/viewthread/2145/.
     
    #16
  17. 7Craps, Jan 14, 2013

    7Craps

    7Craps Member

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    Good news travels fast
    or is that bad news that travels fast
    Another one...
    sounds like "biggins":

    FORMAL CHALLENGE: NEW BLACKJACK & CRAPS SYSTEM WILL WIN 1K/DAILY FOR MIN 30 SESSIONS
    I think I read somewhere they play with you with their bankroll and you give them 50% of your winnings or.

    "I have formulated a betting system and modified basic strategy system for blackjack & craps. And for the record, it is not for sale.

    However, administrator permitting, I would like to make a challenge to any player who can afford this:

    I challenge any blackjack or craps player to play along with me with a 13k bankroll for 30 sessions. I am VERY confident we will win 1k per session minimum.

    I would like to have the player post the results of each of the 30 sessions on this forum to prove me right or wrong. Each session will be under 2 hours. I will put up the entire 13K bankroll BUT give the player the opportunity to do the same at a 50/50 split of earnings."


    Sounds great to me
    I am waiting for the IPO on this one.
     
    #17
  18. goatcabin, Jan 14, 2013

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Looks like "Mr. Smooth" goes by the handle of "biggins" over on the Wizard's site. He said he could demonstrate that he could win 1K per session for 30 sessions, using a $13K bankroll, and solicited gamblers to play along with him. That was November 7 of last year (2012). On November 9, a poster said he was going to meet up with biggins/Mr. Smooth to watch him win $1k at blackjack and craps. He said that he would report back to the Forum, not the specifics of the system, but a general impression, and also if he thought the wins were "repeatable". That post was on November 9,also. The poster said he/she would not be risking any of his money.

    This poster did not report back, except about a month later posted that Biggins/Mr. Smooth had gotten someone to put up money and split the winnings. Don't know about that.

    So far, as of today, no one has posted results in that thread, positive or negative.

    Biggins did make a comment on somebody else's blog, in which he refers to the same list of principles he posted here, and also "Furthermore, one must understand the mathematics of craps, be fluent in SEVERAL 'Off the Shelf' Systems, as interum offset to adapt to changing conditions BUT most important understand that altering play or betting strategy with tactical field changes is ONLY done for reason and/or information and NOT emotionally."

    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  19. DeMango, Jan 14, 2013

    DeMango

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    When I read the word "triggers", I am tempted to suspect that "The Method" by Steve Nelli, is somewhere lurking in the background. Or someone appropriated it, made possibly a few modifications and is now also in business!
     
    #19
  20. goatcabin, Jan 14, 2013

    goatcabin

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    I went and read a long thread from 2011-2012 where someone bought "The Method" and was going to report back, but never did.

    BTW, on that Wizard of Odds thread I referred to, someone called "thezone" jumped in and claimed to be able to win 25% of starting bankroll 9 times out of 10, wants to play along with Biggins. Then, a DI claimer wanted to shoot against Biggins and "destroy his money" using controlled throws.

    Wow!
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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