# Sure thing

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by KokomoJoe4, Mar 21, 2020.

1. KokomoJoe4, Mar 21, 2020

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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Let's put up a thread about craps rather than the virus, which i hope will soon .

The only sure thing about craps is that the math of the game defines a minimum house edge that exists as a result of the rules of the game.

This applies to all players, including so-called advantage players, so-called DI's, and the rest of us, usually referred to in derogatory terms like chicken feeders, random rollers or assholes.

No matter how the game is played, the player is very likely to be underdog to the house.

It is not impossible to be on an even footing with the house, but don't count on it. Tables offering "free" fours and tens, which are paid 2:1, where no vigorish is charged on these wagers qualify, as do tables with Field paying triple on both 2 and 12. Good luck finding these tables, although sc AP's and sc DI's have no need to rely on luck. Please remember that to keep this even game with the house, you can make no bet(s) other than those that are paid fairly. Obviously, if and ain't showing, you can and will still lose your ass.

A SINGLE P, C, DP or DC has the player with a 49.3% chance to win his wager. This is a 1.41% house advanatge. If you make two such bets, odds against doubles.

Each of these four basic wagers is a potential two part wager, which might or might not resolve on the come out roll. This is how and why these bets differ from, and are better than wagers which are self selected, UNLESS you are playing at a location where outsides can be bought and vig charged only on the win, where vig payment can be further diluted by house rules.

Unless you can find tables with buy rules described above, place bettors pay attention, especially those of you who will "show" that place bets pay better than come bets "because come bets require two hits before they are paid, and I collect twice on my place bet."

Our potential two part line bet has us at 1.4% disadvantage. Place and buy bets are at 1.52% at their best on the 6 and 8, at -4.0% on the 5 and 9, and at -6.7% on the 4 and 10.

Odds can be taken or layed on the line bets which, since paid fairly, has the effect of decreasing house advantage even farther. True, odds do not increase our chances of winning, because when our bets lose, we are losing more money with the use of the odds bet. Chances of winning are defined in the dice and are identical for the line bettor and the place bettor - 1:2 against on the outside, 2:3 against on the odds and 5:6 against on the insides.

My long-standing idea: if every bet made increases the odds against AND enables you to lose more money, why make more than one bet?

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2. DeMango, Mar 21, 2020

### DeMango Member

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My long-standing idea: if every bet made increases the odds against AND enables you to lose more money, why make more than one bet?

Makes too much sense for a gambler to understand.

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3. TDVegas, Mar 21, 2020

### TDVegas Member

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They are relying on variance or a belief they can tilt the odds in their favor.

"Long standing idea" is you are going to lose, period...in theory.

Why bet more than the minimum or make more than 1 bet?...."long standing idea" in mind. I assume the enjoyment factor of "action" supercedes the reality of "long standing idea".

Our "short standing" utility takes over....which is why players bet more and make more than 1 bet. Risk tolerance also plays a roll. How much we are comfortable wagering also plays a roll. "Long standing" negative expectation games, sadly....pay the guy "long standing" running the game.

Haven't see free buy 4 & 10 since the Downtown Grand had it. Long gone.

Haven't seen triple on 2-12 field since Santa Ana? Albuquerque. I also assume long gone.

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4. KokomoJoe4, Mar 21, 2020

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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I am just putting up my thoughts from a lot of years ago, when, wanting to play craps but sick and tired of losing damn near every time I played, thought about the game from the point of view of finding the "best way" to do two things - minimize losses and maximize wins.

There are Martingale and Martingale-like ways to play where you will almost never lose. The unfortunate things here are that your many wins will mostly be very small and your infrequent losses will be catastrophic.

Excitement at play must take a back seat to strategy. While it is easy to go across and collect chips on nearly every roll, if playing this way was easily profitable, everyone would do it.

My idea was/is to find a way to use the lowest HE wagers to the best of my advantage.

In spite of the fact that I can get HE down to -0.85 outside and -1.05 on odd buy bets, I still prefer the -1.41 line bets because they offer the possibility for parlays and odds.

I'm pretty sure that the only way I can improve my chances at the game are to either (1) play at no odds against (tables with either free buys or dual triple fields) or (2) learn to control the dice.

Since I do not believe in the possibility of control and am extremely unlikely to find a table where I have even odds, I'm sticking with what I have.

#4
Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
5. TDVegas, Mar 21, 2020

### TDVegas Member

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There’s a lot of dead time with one bet in craps. No other game offers such dead time. In many respects that’s a good thing.....as long as a player doesn’t mind no pays on what might be a 20+ roll.

Your methods are fine by me, KKJ. Personally, I think it’s the only way to keep long term results as close to net even as possible. There’s even some marginal hope to come out ahead long term.

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6. KokomoJoe4, Mar 21, 2020

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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Yep, but without doing progressions when you are lucky enough to see multiple in a row winners, you still don't stand much of a chance at beating the house. You need some big winners to make up for lots of small losses.

I'm guessing it's June or July before I see the inside of a casino, and I certainly hope they train their cleaning crews to perform like the UCDT and LID did when they handled grounds keeping responsibilities at der Institute in Baden Baden, so good they named it twice.

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7. TDVegas, Mar 21, 2020

### TDVegas Member

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You actually stand a better chance without progressions....technically/mathematically speaking.

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9. Settingcanthurt, Mar 21, 2020

### Settingcanthurt Member

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Reading the Dice Doctor a couple years ago Progression/Regressions were the only way he recommended to take profit. He has about 20 % of the book detailing many different schemes where a outcome should be handled this way or that. Mostly good sound advice to not lose it all but in reality. They seemed to be so complicated, reading one scenario after another I found my mind wondering and unable to realize any real help as they required much memorization. But and I will say if OAP were here it would be on his plus side of ways to play. It's conservative yet if one can stand the losses and bet big, can make some big profits.

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10. TDVegas, Mar 21, 2020

### TDVegas Member

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Very good.

I'm sure there are a lot of theories and ideas on the "best" way to try and make long term bank with progressions and or regressions....

I'm only outlining what is kind of written in stone....the math. As far as I know....a single flat bet with odds will yield better long term results than parlaying wins with a bigger flat line bet. The odds portion doesn't matter...regardless of size (2x, 10x or 100x)....the odds bet is projected to be \$0 net win or lose.

This, if course....is notwithstanding any personal accounts of success or failure. I'm sure there are some good and bad stories on both sides with progressions. The potential for a big win is always there with a progression.

If I recall...could be wrong, OAP had devised a negative progression strategy that ensured more smaller wins but had the potential to suffer a larger loss. He was comfortable with it and enjoyed walking out a winner more often...even if the take was smaller.

Kudos to KKJ, it's kind of good we try and get back to craps and and escape the non stop corona shit...frankly I'm tired of the every minute news onslaught...TV, internet, etc. Depressing. This city is reeling.

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11. Settingcanthurt, Mar 22, 2020

### Settingcanthurt Member

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I wonder if there is could be enough interest from here in a good ol fashioned, whats that term? fade crapes??

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12. Mssthis1, Mar 22, 2020

### Mssthis1 Member

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Most people are looking for action and excitement even if they claim winning is their primary or only goal.

1 bet, pass or don't pass with cheese in a fixed amount relative to your bankroll is always going to be the best play. The problem is it's about as much excitement as watching paint dry for most people.

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13. twodicebilly, Mar 22, 2020

### twodicebilly Member

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Koko

your entitled to your opinion that there is nothing a player can do to give himself a better chance
at the table just like Von Duck has opinion none of us will live through this virus......

I have a different opinion on both...

TDB

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14. TDVegas, Mar 22, 2020

### TDVegas Member

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Spot on.

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15. eagleeye2, Mar 22, 2020

### eagleeye2 Member

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Mssthis1,

Your comments assume (Ass~U~Me) random distribution of the #'s, thrown on a CRAPS Table!!!

MOST, but not all here, understand that Non-Random distribution of #'s thrown on the DICE are required for the player to come out ahead, or WIN @ CRAPS!!!

One's ability to WIN thus depends on one or more of the following:

1) Variability
2) Luck
3) Mind Over Matter
4) Ones Developed Ability to achieve a Non-Random distribution of #'s thrown on the CRAPS Table & to Bet them accordingly

eagleeye2

#15
16. twodicebilly, Mar 22, 2020

### twodicebilly Member

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missthis1

Look at everything people do, the only real difference is how you define action ???

Competitive activity, hell look at fishing tournaments.....you can catch fish on Wednesday
and Thursday, but they dont mean as much as they do on Friday, why? because on
Friday they count as to how what you did is measured against what some one else
did......

Look at poker tournaments...it is for the money, but dont think for a second it is not about
how you stacked up that day against others......

In most people, ( not all on here) there is a desire to see what you can do against opposition, it may
be other fisherman, it may be other poker players, or other business owners that make the same
product that you do, or sell the same service. or at a craps table, where the odds are all against you.
That desire to see what you can do... that is the good stuff.

Over the number of times I have had the pleasure to speak with James since he has been sick, the one
thing I have learned about him is the idea he has that if it can be done, there is no reason to think he
cant do it, and if it has not been done, then he can be the first one to do it ..what a remarkable way
to live.

What pleasure is there in life when all you do is explain what cant be done, or how bad anything can
be ???????

TDB

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Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
17. Mssthis1, Mar 22, 2020

### Mssthis1 Member

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Not so. If you're skilled, betting the maximum amount your bankroll allows on the the number you toss the most of becomes even more important than it does in a random game.

Playing any other way is giving money to the casino.

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18. twodicebilly, Mar 22, 2020

### twodicebilly Member

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missthis 1

that is not an accurate statement.....

That is because the more you learn about shooting the dice to beat the table the more you understand
how hard it is and what goes into that..... the more you understand that, the more you understand when
to bet and when not to bet.

TDB

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19. KokomoJoe4, Mar 22, 2020

### KokomoJoe4 Member

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This could be stated by both a DI and a non-believer, the DI from the point of view of the difficulty associated with aquiring "skill" and the non-believer from the point of view that "things will vary, there is no control over the matter."

This seems to associate with randomness and abandon the idea of "skilled shooting". The non-believer understands that there will be good and there will be bad and that there is no control over this.

For the DI, this seems to state that he is confused by bad results, and decides to stop play rather than continue to lose.

TDB, I am certain that everyone here wishes the best for James, and that perhaps believers among us pray for him.

I am also sure that no one doubts he has had terrific sessions playing craps, and knows enough about the game to offer training sessions.

The only point of contention concerns whether or not these great craps results involve luck or skill.

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20. lone irish digit, Mar 22, 2020

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