Successful Sniping

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Night Attack, Dec 12, 2017.

  1. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    This is exactly what a random roller will do with a progression play or build up play.

    What's the difference between the random guy and the DI?

    Apparently nothing. If results are the "separation" between the two....then at this point in his career he should no longer have to tip toe.

    Phil Ivey
    Hellmuth

    Do not "tip toe" into $3-$5 poker games....

    That is because they know they are skilled and don't need to even consider starting at those paltry amounts.

    This tip toe suggests a DI simply does not know what will happen...much like a random roller does not know. There are many random rollers here who progress wins. I fail to see the difference in their approach vs. a guy who says "it's not random for me"....but takes the exact same betting approach.

    I'm hearing luck, variance...more than anything else. When it goes bad, maybe the DI guy makes an excuse for the loss (bad mechanics) while the randie simply says bad luck. The route or thinking may be different...ultimately the destination is the same. In other words...tis better to blame oneself rather than lady un-luck. It's a mindset.

    Same goes for a win. I don't see an issue with that thinking. It does no harm. If it adds to ones ego not to be thought of as a randie (as James Hall does)...so be it.

    The separation for the two players should be much like poker. The randie starts at the $3-$5. The skilled one starts at $100-$300. It's nothing more than a Kelly. Buy in to overall winnings. A pittance at this stage in their career...IF they are skilled. IF being the holy grail word.

    These debates...like a train with no destination. Just keeps going.
    Something along those lines...especially after 40 years.
    truer words never said...and it applies to everyone.
     
    #121
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
  2. superrick, Jan 3, 2018

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    If you want to lose money fast just use big bets if you want to win start with small bets and work off of the chips you are putting in your rack with smart betting!
     
    #122
  3. DeMango, Jan 3, 2018

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    But do you believe in DI?
     
    #123
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  4. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

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    smart betting can only mean 1 of 2 things....

    smart betting would be betting numbers that carry a lower vig or EV.

    OR

    smart betting would be KNOWING what is going to roll next...and bet it

    The only logical tie in where previous rolls could be tied to future rolls would be DI. Dice influence. A player is doing something with his toss, his mechanics, his set that is making certain numbers appear beyond just random occurrence. That is dice influence in its purest form. Betting on those numbers would be smart betting. It would also require a belief....in...dice influence.

    Suggesting to bet what numbers have been tossed previously without any other force (DI) at work?...there is nothing inherently wrong or right with this play. It could ONLY be "right" or advantageous if dice influence was at work. Otherwise it would simply be a guess.

    Once those dice have landed and stopped moving....there is nothing to suggest the next roll has any tie in to that result---ONLY dice influence could be used as a reasoning. Or bad dice. Or cheating.
     
    #124
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
  5. James Hall, Jan 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    What is the difference between the random guy ?
    ANSWER: How they handle the dice , how soon they are playing on house money,
    when they leave the table , what they do while away , when they return
    and so much more
    There is just not the time nor the space to teach you all these things on this forum , but those facts are available
    What James Hall thinks is very important to James Hall
    even the Bible says a man will be what he thinks
    To me and others , "PERCEPTION CAN BE REALITY"
    If you think of yourself as a randy you couls well be one for life
    I think as much about what I want to be as I do about what I am ,
    That thought process opens me up to improvement
    You may think the negative thoughts you have all your life , the tragedy is doing so
    limits your improvement
    "YOU ARE AS GOOD , RIGHT NOW , AS YOU WILL EVER BE, HOLDING THE
    OPINIONS YOU DO AND THAT YOU POST ON THIS FORUM"
    Such is the true for so many who do not , "BELIEVE" , that better things are available to those who seek , "PERFECTION"
    Anyone who wants to ,"IMPROVE" must believe it's possible or he is wasting space.
    A quote from the master , "ALL THINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THOSE WHO BELIEVE"
    Carry on , "ONWARD and UPWARD"
    When you believe the "NAYSAYERS"
    "YOU RELEGATE YOURSELF TO MEDIOCRITY'
    Like the man was just saying , "SETTINGCANTHURT" , It can't hurt
     
    #125
  6. James Hall, Jan 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Getting to ya is it "POOF"
     
    #126
  7. KokomoJoe4, Jan 3, 2018

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    LID,

    Please tell me this is not the woman who beat the hell out of Barney at the casino.

    If it is, I want her number to get her to do a number on me too.
     
    #127
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  8. James Hall, Jan 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    It's amazing , the way your thought processes work
    two definitions you listed are both shear disaster and the reason people are sucked into the , "WRONG GAME"
     
    #128
  9. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    These are not quantifiable....unless it is conjured up in your own mind without any benchmark, valid comparison.

    You are entitled to these thoughts....but these are merely your own personal thoughts.
     
    #129
  10. James Hall, Jan 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    Nope , wrong again many skilled players hold these same views
     
    #130
  11. James Hall, Jan 3, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

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    I will be back later , gotta go get my lottery tickets
    The lottery ,, "DOESN'T SUCK"
     
    #131
  12. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I see a lot of smart players playing bubble craps that truly make dumb choices. The past few days I witnessed continuous come/odds bettors doing well...only to fuck it up by putting out a constant $4 horn bet.

    What should have been a decent net positive was merely breaking even after 30 minutes of results. I can only imagine what happened after those 12-15-18 roll hands died off.
     
    #132
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  13. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    And the same would apply to them....
    They could employ some craps sabermetrics to verify...

    you do that?
     
    #133
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
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  14. Liman

    Liman Member

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    I can tell you the difference between random rollers and those that consider themselves di rollers.

    the di shooters wait around the table at jokers wild on boulder highway or similar casino for the table to open so they can get their 3 dollar bets down.(I was there, I saw it)
    The random shooters can go to a regular casino where tables are open 24 hours a day, and have enough confidence to bet 5-10 dollars without sweating it.
     
    #134
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  15. Liman

    Liman Member

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    no, AN EXPERIENCED DIVER ALWAYS CHECKS THE POOL FIRST, THE BOARDS, MAKES SURE THE WATER IS DEEP ENOUGH, ETC.....THEN EACH DIVE, HE PERFORMS LLIKE AN EXPERT. SURE, HE FLOPS SOMETIMES, BUT A PROFESSIONAL IS CONSISTENT, that is what separates him from the amateurs.his skills, he is going to perform on a level so far above the rest of the common folk, there would be no question in anyones mind is he a professional.

    if a di has to check to see if his shot is working, it means hes nothing more than a random shooter who has some good rolls and bad rolls, just like me and everyone else.
     
    #135
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  16. superrick, Jan 3, 2018

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    Well, I know that you believe in fairy tales. So what does that tell everybody about you and your hero the great fiction writer the madprofessor. By the way where di you say he was at, Oh, that's right playing craps with our jokester Lid. Byou you got to love that guy DeMano he brought your hero back to life!
     
    #136
  17. basicstrategy777, Jan 3, 2018

    basicstrategy777

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    The start of your play..........you start betting BIG....or you start betting small.

    If you bet BIG and lose, you lose BIG........if you start betting BIG and win you can win BIG

    If you bet small and you lose, you lose small......if you start betting small and you win, you can win BIG ( as you increse your bets to BIG bets)

    It seems to me there is no real advantage to start betting BIG.....and there is a disadvantage.

    Explain to me why people start off with BIG bets........and they prefer to play at a 25 dollar table if a 5 dollar table is available. What is the logic here ?

    777
     
    #137
  18. DeMango, Jan 3, 2018

    DeMango

    DeMango Member

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    All well and good, but do you believe in DI? Or do you have ESP?
     
    #138
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  19. TDVegas, Jan 3, 2018

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    depends...are we talking skilled craps tosser?...or not.

    For a randie....unskilled---absolutely, your way is the way I would go.
     
    #139
  20. tabletop123, Jan 3, 2018

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Here's something else for ya. If Dice Influencing was a TRUE skill for MOST, why do the results get worse the longer that you toss the dice?
    When I used to hustle pool.....the longer that I played, the better that I performed. After hitting the balls for an hour or so.....I was in "Dead Punch"!

    With Dice Influencing you are taught to NOT toss the dice More than 15-20 minutes continuously. Why is that? Lol
    I do realize that with any game, craft, that mental or physical fatigue sets in, but being mentally or physically fatigued after ONLY 20 minutes? Getting headaches from concentrating too hard? Lol

    Give me a friggin break. I will always support Dice Influencing to a CERTAIN extent, but I ain't gonna lie, or embellish things.

    Common sense should tell ya that anytime you toss a perfect toss, & ya get that fucked up seven out.....ya might just need to re-evaluate things.
    Sadly, the deluded will always come up with some bullshit like: " you just THOUGHT it was a perfect toss, but your dice landed to the left/right or some other bullshit.

    Dice Influencing, & successful tosses ( tosses wherein the dice travel in tandem) are built on "feel"!
    You KNOW when you have tossed a perfect/near perfect toss, so for one to stand there, & NOT concede to the obvious ( you just tossed a beauty, yet ya got fucked up results) is beyond me.

    There will always be excuses, because the Practictioners REALLY believe in what they are doing. However, with all of that BELIEF, there is a point in time wherein ( for any rational individual) reality SHOULD set in, & you should realize the realities, & limitations of Dice Influencing.

    The subconscious is a monster. Ya just cannot/will not shake it. My patented excuse for tossing "bricks" these days is....I have arthritis in my dominate hand ( which is true).
    However, most of the "bricks" that I toss cannot be blamed solely on arthritis. How about this....Top, ya just tossed a brick, & it wasn't because of that fucked up hand.(it's called acceptance of responsibility. Lol)

    Acceptance of responsibility.....sound familiar? Lol.

    There are SOME shooters out there that can skew probability at alarming clips. Somehow my better judgement tells me that they just ain't on THIS or any OTHER forums saying: "See, this is what I do"! "This is how I beat the Casinos"!

    "I just want to help other less fortunate shooters, because that's the way that I was brought up"! Lol

    Usually when ya have a person helping others THAT THEY DONT KNOW ( especially in masses).....there's normally money involved, & he/she that's doing the helping is getting a fee.

    Of course there are exceptions to this rule, but those exceptions are far, & few between.

    It takes thousands of rolls, & meticulous, HONEST record keeping, OR some VERY serious SNIPING to KNOW if you have a REAL advantage. Other than THAT.....you are just guessing, & MORE than likely it's simply Variance.

    If you use a particular Dice Set, & you are hitting your number/s within 1-3 rolls CONSISTENTLY....forget the thousands of rolls, & meticulous record keeping. You, my friend...... are a BONAFIDE Dice Influencer, & you should fade into the night.

    Wishing EVERYONE a successful 2018....on, & off of the tables!
     
    #140
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