SHOULDER COMPUTER

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Linaway, Mar 9, 2014.

  1. KokomoJoe4, Apr 30, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    When you look at the possibility of being a long-term winner, calculations are based on the standard house edge of the specific wager under consideration. You determine variance, then standard deviation. Now you have the mathematical possibilities for your method of play. Because of variance, there is absolutely the possibility of being a short-term winner, even a semi-long-term winner. Over the lonnnnnnnnnnnng haul (millions of bets), even a simple -1.41% odds against will calculate to be essentially impossible to be a winner. However, if you placed and hit a winner with a bigger bet here and there, anything is possible.

    If you look at the players BEST POSSIBLE odds against, it would be playing ONE Don't, with 100x odds laid. Nearly the same but slightly better than ONE Do with 100x odds on every bet placed.

    Assuming you can afford this sort of play, play it and only it every time you play with every bet you make, there is a chance, but still not a good one, that you will be a long-term winner.

    Obviously, with -0.02% odds against, variance and standard deviations allow for much better mathematical possibilities.

    For those placing 3 or 4 numbers, pitching some plastic to the stick - hardways, C & E, etc, etc, very best of luck, you'll need it.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  2. basicstrategy777, Apr 30, 2014

    basicstrategy777

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    Hey....if you guys want to think there are no lifetime winners at craps...so be it. It's not worth 'fighting' over.

    Just before I'm ready to check out....I'll let you know. I've been shooting dice since 1950, in a caddy shack when I got in, after 5 hours, carrying doubles ( 4 bucks a bag was BIG money then ).

    777
     
    #62
  3. KokomoJoe4, Apr 30, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    777,

    actually I am agreeing with you that it is possible to be a long-term winner, but almost impossible.
     
    #63

  4. Liman

    Liman Member

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    I believe I am a lifetime long winner at craps.(my wife feels strongly about this, she has been encouraging me to play for 25 years, never asked me to slow down)
    Factor in travel expenses, food, hotel rooms, probably not.
    Gambling costs money.
    But until I feel Im losing money, I wont continue to play 2 times a week.
     
    #64

  5. FredP

    FredP Member

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    If you are not an altruistic inventor to help others. Just buy your gadget because they need help?
    Isn't that a business not a hobby?
    I will accept my loss. Keep lurking. Someday you may find your mind.
    Fred
     
    #65
  6. The Comeback Kid, Apr 30, 2014

    The Comeback Kid

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    Ah the memories. Wack! Looking for a white ball in a white sky, then a thump, somewhere in the tall grass, might be snakes - $6 a bag in Upstate NY

    Even though we had no dice in the caddy shack, one day I jump ship in Hong Kong and make my way over to Tibet, and I get on as a looper at a course over in the Himalayas. A looper, you know, a caddy, a looper, a jock. So, I tell them I'm a pro jock, and who do you think they give me? The Dalai Lama, himself...so I've got THAT going for me...




     
    #66
  7. $nakeEye$, Apr 30, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    TDV -

    If , I , after spending around $100 and reading books on advantage play BJ - and then discover what the author(s) claim is unattainable -
    THEN, spent $900 ( in 1988 dollars ) to learn a " winning method / system " -

    WHY , would I, even ponder the thought of dispensing for naught what I paid good money for ?

    I refuse to do that - although - I did give the course to 1 craps associate - who elected to disregard it - because he " had a better method " -



    Please, correct me if I am wrong here - the casino short changes you on every winning bet - that is their " cut / profit / house edge / advantage -

    Kind of like you and me ' cutting the pot ' in a friendly card game at our homes - someone has to pay for the beer and chips ! -

    I do NOT see being short-changed on the true odds as a ' negative expectation game ' - it is the price one must pay to have the opportunity to liberate some $$ from the casino's coffers !




    I, as many others, DO believe in DI - and practice almost daily - NOT to the extent of SuperRick - but enough to keep my expertise up to snuff -

    Linaway's " flux capacitor " as you refer to it - is a most unique and note-worthy training aid for any DI - whether aspiring to be or an accomplished influencer -

    In addition to the grip, dice set, and proper release - the landing zone is right up there at the top of the list of key elements of DI / DC -

    As a matter of fact - I am going to purchase one of those " flux capacitors " - as I feel it is worth its' weight in gold to enhance every serious student of this " game " !

    $...eE..$
     
    #67
  8. TDVegas, Apr 30, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    How much are you down over the years? Ballpark figure.
     
    #68
  9. $nakeEye$, Apr 30, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    $0.00 to be EXACT !

    HOW do YOU stand - ballpark figures ?

    $...eE..$
     
    #69
  10. Linaway, Apr 30, 2014

    Linaway

    Linaway Member

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    Fred,

    I see you’ve crawled out of your dark place once again. If it is your intention to attempt to eviscerate me, never going to happen. You see in your attempt to defame, all you’ve done is draw attention to yourself. Obviously your not capable of design or even building devices to help others, just make sick attempts at personal attacks. As you said, this is your loss. You can’t even spell my handle correctly.

    Linaway
     
    #70
  11. superrick, Apr 30, 2014

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    TDV,.If I asked you a very simple question like how long do you play craps for every year are you going to give me an honest answer? Is it once a week, once a month, two or three times a year, or just about every day?

    Most players are lucky if they play craps three times a year, they don't understand the game they can't even tell you where their bets are placed on the table! They only look at craps as a fun way to lose money. They love to put his big cigar in their mouth and stand at table end and make like a high roller!

    They have no conception of the long term or short term of the game!

    They will never be a craps table for 10,000 rolls of the dice, some of them walk away winners betting on those stupid prop bets,while the guy standing right next to them is bad mouthing how this stupid prop better is playing craps. The only thing they know is they are winning, nothing else matters to them! There are no bad bets craps table as long as the shooter is hitting the numbers your are betting on!

    In that short little time frame they are at the table, the 12 could have been the best number to bet on.

    What you and most math guys don't know or will never admit to is the math of the game is only for the casinos to figure out the odds of them winning on every bet you make, the math of the game does not guarantee that the casinos will be winners in the short term!

    They know that over the long they should come out winners! Did you happen to catch that word should? Even they know that they could end up losing, if the variance is in the players favor! To put it another way, if they feel a player is to lucky and winning to often they will cut off their comps or just ban them from playing, so please don't make stupid statements like you can't win at playing craps.

    http://urbino.net/bright.cfm?specificBright=When%2C%20Why%20and%20How%20to%20%E2%80%9CFire%E2%80%9D%20a%20Customer

    Now I know that you know it all and you have years of experience, but please tell me why I'm missing something here. The casinos are saying that they can be beating by a skilled craps player but you know better!

    I know guys that do beat the casinos, but they do not do what our great fiction writers write about, they are not taking hundred's of thousands of dollars a year out of the casinos! But they do take enough that the casinos would ban them if they didn't move their play around!

    Not everybody are born losers, some players do take the time to study the games they play, learning how to beat the casinos at their own game. The ones that do, don't play by a system, they don't play the same way every time they play, they adapt to what's happening on the tables they are playing on. They don't sell anything, they don't play in large groups, and they move are play around, they are not playing for comps, anybody that does is a fool in my book, the casinos want you to play their game, where they keep you in their casinos as long as they can, to bleed all the money that they can out of you!

    Your worst enemy in a casino, is overstaying your play. The casinos know that that is why you get comps.

    Everybody must think that you live in Vegas with a handle like TDVegas, are they wrong? Now please tell they truth, or are you just one of those guys that shows up at table end playing the don't, that I beat all the time with that damn stupid cigar stuck in your mouth? If you arethat guy, the casinos love you because you can't figure it out! Yea,... I see players like you everyday, you will bad mouth anybody that is not playing your way! That stupid guy that is playing the field and winning or the stupid guy that is betting the prop bets. Yea,..I know they are so stupid making those kind of bets, to bad they walk away a winner and players like you that say there is no way they can win placing stupid bets walk away a loser!

    Negative players are always playing a negative game, maybe it's why they walk away losers. They are psychologically beat, before they make their first bet! Now where did you say you were from, and how many time a year do you play? The other thing I see all the time are the players that move here to Vegas and lose everything they own, because they love to be entertained by the casinos, they never learn to take the time to find out about the games they are playing.

    Sure they may have read one book, on let's say craps by “John Patrick, but that doesn't do anything for them, they only have one mans perspective on the game. So now they think that they should hedge every bet they make, or play the don't because authors like him say it's the best bet in the house!
     
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    Last edited: May 1, 2014
  12. TDVegas, May 1, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Spare me the long winded diatribe. That went out with letter writing.

    Blackjack and poker are games of skill.
    Roulette and Craps are games of chance.
    You live here and don't know that? Whew. Money management is a different subject.

    There is no "the casinos SHOULD come out ahead over the long haul"...they DID, DO and HAVE.

    You still haven't outlined how you beat the casino. Posts that say "I'm better than everyone else" bore me. The only thing I can think of is you have some misguided idea that previous rolls in craps influence future results. Once more, what is your betting strategy? Or do you charge a fee for that like the other shysters trying to sell something here?
     
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    Last edited: May 1, 2014
  13. KokomoJoe4, May 1, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    As one who does NOT believe, I will at least concede that dice control is theoretically possible. With this in mind, there is no need for a system.

    Rick has stated repeatedly that he has nothing to sell and no system of play to peddle. Not knowing him personally, I would guess that his success centers on some ability to avoid the seven and betting accordingly.
     
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    Last edited: May 1, 2014
  14. KokomoJoe4, May 1, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    #74
  15. TDVegas, May 1, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    "Dice Heirarchy"
    ---------
    which in layman's terms...means what exactly?
     
    #75
  16. KokomoJoe4, May 1, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    it is explained reasonably well in two or three threads posted in the somewhat recent past, but I am not the author.

    six faces, three axes, various arrays of the sevens relating to specific dice sets.
     
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  17. TDVegas, May 1, 2014

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Still doesn't explain what it means to advantage play.
     
    #77
  18. KokomoJoe4, May 1, 2014

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    The only advantage I have ever experienced are nearly 600 sessions where I left ahead, to go against a nearly equal but slightly smaller number of losing ones.

    The concept of an advantage player doesn't ring a bell with me. I have no players card. I am not wined and dined by the casino brass. Maybe one or two of them recognize me because I am like a fly on the wall, present almost as many days as some of their part-time dealers.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised if Rick and Linaway have a decent long-term showing at the tables. It's not easy to do, and it takes some luck as well as smart play, but there may very well be some other things I do not well understand involved. Who knows?
     
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  19. $nakeEye$, May 1, 2014

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Hey TDVegas -

    Couple of questions for ya !

    1. YOU asked me - how much I lost to date - and I responded - and asked YOU what your status is - AND you did NOT respond !

    2. YOU state craps and roulette are games of chance - yet poker and blackjack are games of skill - where do YOU get this information from ?
    I have seen total morons play poker and blackjack - did not have a friggin' clue about anything - and then I have seen shooters who have exhibited a level of finesse in their shooting expertise that it drew the attention of the ' suits ' behind the tables.

    3. WHAT is YOUR attitude / belief towards DI - DO you or do you NOT believe that it alters the " randomness " of the game ?

    Simple questions - should not be too difficult for you to respond to them !

    $...eE..$
     
    #79
  20. superrick, May 1, 2014

    superrick

    superrick Member

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    I hit 4, 5, and six point fire bets all the time,.. no not everyday but enough to make it worth while to play them, and guess what I don't care about the house edge of lets get it right, 25%!
     
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