Secrets To Making Money At Craps

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by Craps Poopshoot, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. Onautopilot, Jan 2, 2017

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    What you are suggesting here, is that the retail store's data collecting and analysis of that data is comparable to collecting and analysis of true random events such as dice rolls. That is not the case, the retail store is conducting a valid study, to attempt to identify trends in fashion, and take advantage of that information.

    Purchase of clothing is not true randomness, and "trends" can be identified. There is "reason" behind a persons choice of clothing, unlike a dice decision, which is totally random, totally chance.

    There is a cause and effect in the case of clothing purchases, there is no cause and effect in random events. No useful information can be gained from past events in observing random outcomes.

    But hope lives eternal, I have been searching for a "hiccup" in random for 50 years.....so far an elusive quest! :)
     
    #101
  2. gargoil, Jan 2, 2017

    gargoil

    gargoil Member

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    OAP. I agree with you except for the fact that the AI doesn't know it's trying to find trend in fashions. The people going over the data have that information. The AI is looking for trends and anomalies in the data and flagging them.

    Example if a shooter rolls a five then a seven. Next shooter rolls a few then a five followed by a seven. Next shooter gets the dice and throws a few then a five. We now have an assumption that a seven will follow. It's not a fact or a guarantee. It's just an assumption.
     
    #102
  3. Edward-ky, Jan 2, 2017

    Edward-ky

    Edward-ky Member

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    The fields alive after a five. A nine on the come out brings a hard 4. I know a guy if a five rolls he hops the 10's. A nine rolls he hops the 4's. And I have seen him hit those bets quite often. I have also seen them not hit. Kinda why I find this a fascinating game. Interesting to see people strategies and most are creatures of habit they do the same style of betting over and over.
     
    #103
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  4. $nakeEye$, Jan 3, 2017

    $nakeEye$

    $nakeEye$ Member

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    Yes, Howard -

    You are onto something here -

    That is WHY your charting is valuable to you -

    Don't forget to turn your bets off - if you have any actually working - after a 5 is thrown !

    Because - HISTORY - dictates that the 7 is a comin' !

    $...eE..$
     
    #104
  5. betwthelines, Jan 3, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    good on yah, garg, i believe you have succeeded nicely...you got a pretty good discussion going.
    i think what i am saying is more that past rolls offer no intelligence, no information, no data if you will, about future rolls...

    "suggestion" dwells in a different realm: that of human nature...as some pointed out, human beings are hard-wired --genetically disposed-- to see patterns in random events...this is not cultural either...it is a human universal, ergo the presumption that it is genetic, ergo the good possibility that now or at some point in the past such disposition has or had survival value (although this is not necessarily so...many---maybe most, i can't remember---random gene mutations are simply neutral in that regard but get passed on anyway because dna is extremely [amazingly] efficient in accurately passing on, accurately reproducing genes...somehow, though, i think this one either has or had some value)

    your purse and shoe buyers also dwell in this realm of human nature.
    ...it took you 7 words to say what i said in about 200...lol...<sigh> the blathering bohunk.
    unless i missed it the discussion has been around randomness and maybe how buying a purse is a different randomness than a dice roll.
    WHAT HAS BEEN MISSING
    in the discussion is that 2 or more dice rolls are not just random but they are also
    INDEPENDENT
    of each other..."random and independent" are the operative words describing craps rolls...x cannot affect y because it has NO RELATIONSHIP to y...it is truly independent of it...nothing like "fashion sense" inheres in a pair of plastic cubes.

    independence and not maybe as much randomness, which, as we've discussed, gets muddled up by human nature--and by opinion even--is the real reason a dice roll offers no intelligence about the next roll.

    now our purse and shoe purchases "appear" random and independent as well and certainly largely are but a human impulse plays into it...a (very) difficult to define cultural phenomena is in play...so difficult in fact that your retail clients are employing AI in an attempt to dope it out (a wise move on their part, btw, and i am sure, garg, that you are providing sound consultation in the endeavor)...if purchases were truly random and independent, why even bother with the research? in that case there could be no actionable intelligence.
    well , in the sense that anything is possible i suppose yes...my opinion is no in a truly independent milleau...but then i have been in arguments that 2+2 doesn't equal 4 too.

    ------------------------------------------------------

    yes, what is certainly possible is that it is my thinking that is muddled on the matter...no moment: it was fun.

    it's just too damn bad i can't say things inna few words, isn't it?...i may hang around here forra little more but i am leaving in a few hours and will be off-line mostly til about april 1

    so let the sighs of relief begin!

    tom p
    -g. geist: <sneering> "i am sure, garg, that you are providing sound consultation in the endeavor"...whatta pandering fuck you are!
    --tom p:
    ---g. geist: have i nice trip
    ----tom p: thanks
    -----g. geist:
    ------tom p: ain't you coming along?
    -------g. geist:


     
    #105
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  6. Onautopilot, Jan 3, 2017

    Onautopilot

    Onautopilot Member

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    Looking for patterns in random is a natural thing for us, and we find them....a kind of illusion we entertain.

    In days gone by, I spent hours graphing dice rolls, then I would overlay the graphs and look for "patterns". The only real thing I found, was that the return to zero, or close to zero, was oddly to me, that it was at a rate equal to the square root of the number of rolls.

    I thought I had stumbled onto a "pattern" that could be exploited....later I read an article on probabilities that stated the same thing. It is a natural expectation in random chance games, one "standard deviation". :)

    It's just we don't know, and can't know when that deviation is coming.

    But, I would never, ever discourage someone for continuing to look for the "hiccup" in random.....I still do it on occasion myself.
     
    #106
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  7. Twelve4s, Jan 3, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    This is what finding the hiccup looks like,

    IMG_5720.GIF
     
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