Random Shooters

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Twelve4s, Sep 17, 2018.

  1. James Hall, Sep 18, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    11,760
    Likes Received:
    1,951
    Gender:
    Male
    I notice you said , "SOMETIMES"
    In your estimation what is the likelihood of that
    happening on a consistent bases?
     
    #41
  2. random_roller, Sep 18, 2018

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2015
    Messages:
    3,737
    Likes Received:
    4,690

    I acknowledge casinos have an actual (realized) advantage at the game of craps when the aggregate of all rolls and bets over the long run are taken into account. The financial reporting that is available confirms this is the case. After that, I can only provide specifics as to my particular situation -- that's all I have complete & "accurate" data for. I don't monitor other craps players 24x7x365 and track all of their play. Thus, anything else would involve assumptions and some degree of speculation on my part. Finally, in the short run, anything can (and often will) happen.

    That being said, when dealing with large data sets not involving a constant (e.g., Pi, the Golden Number, e, etc.), there are almost always outliers. Given the population of craps players, I believe a few random shooters will defy expectations over the long run, just as some who claim DI will. Unfortunately, there is no way to satisfactorily prove this (either way) because the real-time data needed is just not available.

    In the end, for most players betting the same way on more shooters -- random or DI -- is probably counterproductive over the long run if for no other reason than having more money at risk where the house has a theoretical advantage. Any bettor can win/lose money on ANY shooter (random or DI). It's gambling. I'm willing to accept that when I play craps, so I will bet on other shooters. YMMV. However, that doesn't mean I bet the same way when others are shooting. I don't.
     
    #42
    yacraps, Twelve4s and Mssthis1 like this.
  3. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male

    With the advancement of AI, ML and software tools and advanced computer processing capabilities, even Barney could resolve this issue once and for all, if he had access to all the eye in the sky video of millions of hours of Craps play from thousands of tables. The computers could sift through the data and provide an answer, but what would be the point?

    If the data showed conclusively that all players faired the same over millions of hours, the DI believers would dismiss the data and keep on with their beliefs.

    The casinos already know that there’s no threat to their Craps revenue, and if there was they would eliminate the game or the threat.

    Like Liman has pointed out, Craps is dying with the boomers. See a lot of Twenty somethings hanging out at the Craps tables?
     
    #43
    yacraps likes this.
  4. James Hall, Sep 18, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    11,760
    Likes Received:
    1,951
    Gender:
    Male
    We already know that the vast majority
    of players do fair about the same, they
    make the low HA / math correct bets and do little to
    change the outcome of the game.
    The majority of these players play pretty
    much the same game so results will be
    pretty much the same . These
    players will be , at any given time , slightly
    ahead or behind but in the long run net negative.
    These are the random players . The stories
    of these players are all pretty much the same,
    Up one session down the next.
    The DI is another story. Their skill levels
    run the gambit from no skill to somewhat skilled
    and on up. The lesser skilled DI will fair
    pretty much like the random player , up one day
    and down the next , as the skill level increases
    the consistency increases.
    Some DIs are able to achieve long term net positive
    and maintain that situation.
    The only data that has any relevance to a DI
    is the data that relates strictly to his game.
    What thousands of people do over thousands
    of rolls says nothing about what he does or
    should expect to do , he focuses on the
    results he produces , then makes any adjustment
    to his game that might be necessary.
     
    #44
  5. James Hall, Sep 18, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    11,760
    Likes Received:
    1,951
    Gender:
    Male
    This is something that all players should try very hard to understand. Most players might win some on
    a shooter but while betting on the other 10 or 12
    they will lose it all back plus.
    This is why some on this forum advocate
    betting on shooters who you have seen shoot and feel
    they might be able to get it done.
    One very effective way of controlling losses
    is by qualifying the shooters you bet on.
    Good advice for us all.
     
    #45
    yacraps and eagleeye2 like this.
  6. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male
    This guy watched a DI YouTube and now thinks he’s the real deal,

    7275AD17-E9C0-4ADB-BDFD-29035930487D.gif
     
    #46
    yacraps and lone irish digit like this.
  7. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male
    This random shooter could care less about on axis,

    7F4A078F-9F54-4626-9A3A-12695729FE2D.gif
     
    #47
    yacraps and lone irish digit like this.
  8. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male
    This random shooter doesn’t give a damn about dress codes,

    7A1AA6D0-7F00-4E33-836A-F8BEB48C0A59.gif
     
    #48
    yacraps likes this.
  9. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male
    This random shooter can shoot from any position,

    AD0ECF5E-7B71-40B3-AB6C-93EDB9C269EE.gif
     
    #49
    yacraps and lone irish digit like this.
  10. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male
    This guy should be a don’t bettor,

    E061D7B1-81AB-4E32-91FA-A8F547D432F8.gif
     
    #50
    yacraps likes this.
  11. eagleeye2, Sep 18, 2018

    eagleeye2

    eagleeye2 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2015
    Messages:
    2,673
    Likes Received:
    476
    Gender:
    Male
    Yes, I do See a lot o Twenty somethings hanging out at the Craps tables & for the life of me, I do not comprehend where they get the $$$ to do so!

    eagleeye2
     
    #51
    yacraps likes this.
  12. Twelve4s, Sep 18, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male

    I guess I’m playing in the wrong places at the wrong times. All I see are curmudgeons.
     
    #52
    yacraps likes this.
  13. James Hall, Sep 18, 2018

    James Hall

    James Hall Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2016
    Messages:
    11,760
    Likes Received:
    1,951
    Gender:
    Male
    curmudgeons and geezers normally
    have the money to play while the
    young whipper snappers are losing
    car payments and house payments
    When the moneys gone in approximately
    2 hours the whipper snappers are gone
    making room for the curmudgeons
    and geezers , the folks who can actually
    afford to be there , the young whipper snappers
    retire to the dollar bubble craps MACHINES.
    where the tariff is more affordable.
     
    #53
  14. Twelve4s, Sep 19, 2018

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    5,936
    Likes Received:
    5,532
    Gender:
    Male
    Very rare on axis randy,

    2CA649E8-4439-43ED-BF39-8DA68A9DA7FC.gif
     
    #54
    yacraps likes this.
  15. Settingcanthurt, Sep 19, 2018

    Settingcanthurt

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2015
    Messages:
    4,538
    Likes Received:
    2,811
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Flyover below the tundra
     
    #55
    Twelve4s and yacraps like this.

  16. Liman

    Liman Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2013
    Messages:
    7,328
    Likes Received:
    5,393
    theres plenty of 20 y/os at tables, but its 100 dollar buy ins for the entire weekend.

    craps will never make it with these type of gamblers.

    after a few times they will give it up and stick to the 2 dollar corona nights.
     
    #56
    yacraps likes this.
  17. yacraps, Sep 19, 2018

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Messages:
    2,786
    Likes Received:
    2,985
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    san diego
    Wow! Sett..thats impressive I have a nephew whose a cop he carries a glock I can see why..I wonder how a 1911Browning would of done...I havent made it to that job behind me yet, but the fig tree he gave me is kicking arse :)
     
    #57
    Twelve4s likes this.