Question for the Math Guys!

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by tabletop123, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. tabletop123, Apr 9, 2015

    tabletop123

    tabletop123 Member

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    Now, I realize that in Casinos that allow you to pay the Vig on the Wins ONLY, the 5 & 9 are not Considered Bad Bets! I also realize that if your Number/s aren't hitting your Destined for Failure. The 6/8 carries a House Edge or 1.52%, with the 4/10 Holding a 6.67%. Probabilities state that the 6/8 should roll before the 10/4, however the 10/4 pays 9:5, or 2:1? I hope I'm stating this Correctly. With That being said, what is the Value of Placing the 5/9 at all? Seems like it'd be wiser to place the 4,6,8,10 & skip the 5 &9 since it carries a 4% House Edge. Now, Obviously if the 5/9's are trending..... It's a Good bet. Otherwise , shouldn't the 5/9 be avoided? Okay, you Math Guys.... Have at it!! Goat Cabin, Please chime in with your Expertise in the Math of the Game.
     
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  2. Morgue, Apr 9, 2015

    Morgue

    Morgue Member

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    (Talking place bets only)

    HE factors in the higher payouts for the 4/10. A 4% HE on the 5/9 is better than the 6.67% on the 4/10.

    The way I think about the house edge on bets is that "In the long run" you'll lose $4 every $100 wagered on the 5/9 whereas you'll lose $6.67 per hundred on the 4/10.

    That's why it's ALWAYS worthwhile to buy the 4/10 for a 5% vig. Some casinos round the vig, make sure it's always to the players favour and not the houses.
     
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  3. KokomoJoe4, Apr 9, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    It comes down to how much you are comfortable betting and whether or not the house permits stretching of the vig.

    To get yourself a "good" bet that the math guys will congratulate you for, you need to risk $30-$39 dollars on the outside numbers. Some people don't want to put this much on a single number. In that case, it's $5 or $10 and accept the 4% to 6.7% house edge when placing outside.


    At $30 wagered:

    six/eight = 5/11(35) - 6/11(30) / 30 x 100 = -1.52%

    five/nine = 4/10(44) - 6/10(30) / 30 x 100 = -1.33%

    four/ten = 3/9(59) - 6/9(30) / 30 x 100 = -1.11%


    All are "good" bets with $30 at risk. Two work out as "better" than line bets, but a loser is a loser and costs you $30.

    Still don't make too many pick them myself bets, but when I do, it's always the 4, 9 or 10. I guess it's superstition, but don't care for the 7/6 payout inside, and seldom seem to win on the five.
     
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  4. Onautopilot, Apr 9, 2015

    Onautopilot

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    I for one, don't really pay any attention to the difference in the house edge on the different bet options. 1.4%, 2.0%, 4.0%, etc., it doesn't influence my betting strategies for a given session at the table. I figure my average "vig" for a session, with line bets, odds, place bets, an occasional prop bet, probably comes out to about 3+%. If I average $30-40 bet per decision, that's a little over a $1,000 action per hour. My expected loss is about $30. If I played very conservative, and only bet the lowest vig bets, say 1.5% for all my bet selections, my expected loss would be $15 for the same session.

    If I considered the long haul, it would make a pretty good sized difference I suppose, but spread out over hundreds of sessions, I just don't put that much stock in limiting my bet choices to just the very lowest vig bets. If my lifetime bet handle is say, $3,000,000.....3,000 hours of play, 30-40 years, I would expect to lose $90,000 playing my way. The conservative player would expect to lose $45,000......for the extra $1,000 a year, I had more fun and excitement! :)

    Some may find this a little hard to accept, but if you consider my mind set, it makes sense to me. I enjoy life one day at a time, it is always "today" for me, I don't look very far ahead, and don't look over my shoulder very often. I play a craps session "today", like it's only today's session that matters....it might be my last one. So, a few dollars here or there on different HE bets is no concern for me. I am much the instant gratification type, right now! I would never be heard saying, "I need to select very low HE bets today, 'cause it adds up over time if you bet the higher HE bets.", just ain't happening for me.
     
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  5. Morgue, Apr 9, 2015

    Morgue

    Morgue Member

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    Some of us expect to live another 50-60 years. Can't blow our craps budget out too early! :p
     
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  6. basicstrategy777, Apr 10, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    When betting pairs, I prefer even numbers......start with 6/8, then 4/10, then 5/9.

    The 4/10 has a much higher ROI.....however, when coupled with frequency of payment all number pairs can be considered, pretty much, financially equal.

    The 4/10 can make you. Just my preference.


    777
     
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  7. DeMango, Apr 10, 2015

    DeMango

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    If you can't buy 5/9 & 4/10 without vig upfront, you need to find another casino!
     
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