Put Bets

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by lucky4688, Feb 1, 2011.

  1. goatcabin, Feb 11, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    This is very good data; it goes much deeper than HA, of course. I have several programs I wrote that crank out ev, SD, skew, etc.

    Actually, the SD for 11 $6 place bets would be $21.47. The SD for a single place 6 bet is 1.0788 times the amount of the bet. The SD increases with the square root of the number of bets, so sqrt(11) * 1.0788 = 3.578 * $6 = $21.47.

    BTW, the Configure/Advantage tab in WinCraps shows the ev and SD per roll and per decision for every bet on the table, just another of the great features it provides. It's the best $20 you will spend, probably.
     
    #21
  2. goatcabin, Feb 11, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    No bypassing the comeout. Here's what you wrote:
    " But how about this, i cover the across on the come out (working) and then we compare your PL bet to the other wagers i placed. I GUARANTEE you i get more money in return for my investments."

    OK, so you will bet $44 inside working on the comeout, replacing won bets. If I bet $10 pass and take 5X odds, that works out to an average bet of $43.78, since 1/3 of the time I just bet $10 but $60 2/3 of the time. That's another effect of the dual nature of line bets -- your average bet is the weighted average of the line bet and the line bet with odds. Many people would just assume a $60 bet.

    What is your bankroll when you're starting at $44 inside?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #22
  3. goatcabin, Feb 16, 2011

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Well, lucky4688 hasn't answered my question, and I had some time, so I went ahead and ran a couple of simulations in WinCraps 5.1, using $750 as the bankroll for each. Here were the conditions:

    for the place player:
    sessions ends after 200 rolls OR if bankroll is less than $44.

    for the pass/odds player:
    after 200 rolls, no further pass bets made; sessions ends at 200 rolls or when outstanding pass bet is resolved OR if bankroll is less than $60.

    I ran 10,000 sessions of each strategy.

    The results:
    Code:
    *                                     $10 pass, $50 odds       $44 inside
    number of bets resolved:                      avg. 95.4          avg. 228
    average bet handle/session:                        $2479              $2521
    mean net outcome:                                   -$7                -$67
    range:                                   -$750 to +$1800     -$750 to +$954
    standard deviation:                                 $438                 $286
    HA:                                                0.28%               2.67%
    busts:                                              1045                 280
    lost $500 or more:                                  1497                 707
    lost $250 or more:                                  3008                2621
    won $250 or more:                                   2780                1329
    won $500 or more:                                   1264                 226
    won $750 or more:                                    471                  16
    won $1000 or more:                                   136                   0
    winning sessions:                                    4876               4113
    breakeven sessions:                                    36                 11
    losing sessions:                                     5088               5876
    So, the mean loss is almost ten times higher for the place player, but the pass/odds strategy is more volatile, by about half. It may surprise some that the pass/odds player is almost four times as likely to bust. It's easy to see why this is so:

    If a session starts out with a larger-than-usual proportion of comeout point rolls, which lose more than expected, the pass/odds player is losing $60 a pop, while the pass player may be winning a bet or two before losing $44 on the seven out. A high proportion of points on comeout also means that the pass player is not getting as many comeout decisions with that 2:1 advantage.

    At the same time, the pass/odds, contrary to lucky4688's expectation, has more of an upside, with a huge advantage in big wins.

    The combination of low HA and high variance results in more winning sessions, as expected.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    Woodland, CA
     
    #23
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  4. Wrongway, Oct 11, 2019

    Wrongway

    Wrongway Member

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    Far out. Reading this thread has worn me out big time. Just send me off to where I can play the big wheel......lol.
    On a serious not have enjoyed reading this post.
     
    #24
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