Progressive Craps - Six Sixes

Discussion in 'Prop Bets & Side Bets' started by Jacob, Feb 23, 2015.


  1. Jacob

    Jacob Administrator
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    bitcoinvideocasino.com/craps/ (referral | non-referal)
    progressive-craps.png

    I came across this online craps game that has a side bet you can make on a progressive jackpot they are calling "Six Sixes". Making the bet costs 1 credit. The twist on the game is that they give you 3 sets of dice to roll and you win the jackpot by rolling "Six Sixes" where every face comes up 6. There are smaller fixed prizes for when Five Sixes, Four Sixes, and Three Sixes showing

    Whats the math look like on this game? How big would this jackpot need to be in order to make it a +EV bet?
     
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  2. Morgue, Feb 23, 2015

    Morgue

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    I'm an amateur when it comes to math so take this as a prelim art answer until someone who knows what they're talking about comes along...
    Chances of rolling all 6's with 6 dice is 6x6x6x6x6x6=46656 (I think)

    Does this mean that any credit amount over that would make the bet +EV?
     
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  3. superrick, Feb 24, 2015

    superrick

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    I would take your post over to the wizards board, they love to figure out the math on anything.
    I'm not saying that we don't have some very good math guys here, just saying that they have a ton of them there.
     
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  4. KokomoJoe4, Feb 24, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

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    Payment on the six sixes is off by an order of magnitude. They're paying $24,869.07 for a dollar winner. Fair would be something on the order of ten times this; would need a calculator.
     
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  5. basicstrategy777, Feb 24, 2015

    basicstrategy777

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    I can guarantee you the HA will be significant. Very significant.

    Can't help you with what the HA is precisely.

    777
     
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  6. MustangSally, Feb 24, 2015

    MustangSally

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    the bet also pays on 3, 4 or 5
    6s that show as you must know, yes?

    kind of like video poker where the royal flush pays only 4000 for 1 (5 coin bet) and should pay about 40,000 to 1
    but there are other payoffs that add to the players return

    this is simple math using combinations
    I say

    see who else comes up with an answer(s)

    those that do not know should still try
    that is a good way to learn to do these type of problems, I say so
    I mean how difficult is it when only 6d6 are in play?

    more after a trip to the store
    Sally
     
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  7. Dogalot, Feb 24, 2015

    Dogalot

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    I have a question (and a comment)...

    comment first -- cumbersome betting on the site (on a tablet at least it is)...

    question. I Placed 30 on 6, and was credited 64.8 == sound right?

    Actually says payouts of Place 6/8 -- 29 to 25, 5/9 -- 29 to 20 , 4/10 -- 39 to 20 .
     
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    Last edited: Feb 24, 2015
  8. MustangSally, Feb 24, 2015

    MustangSally

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    yes, I see you got the probability for getting all 6 faces to be a 6
    1 chance in 6^6

    5 should be easy too
    1 way on 5 dice = 1*1*1*1*1
    5 ways the 6th dice could be ( a non 6)
    but 6 dice could be the non-6
    5*6 = 30 ways

    and continue on with the others
    there are formulas
    maybe I show if interest
    but most just want the answer

    here are pics from me Excel calculations
    I be a power user

    see if any one else agrees with me (I did this real fast)
    the current house edge from posted photo
    [​IMG]
    added after:
    OK I really did not need to calculate all the ways to roll 0,1 or 2 6s as they lose
    so the 2 other pays, real fast

    4 6s
    1*1*1*1 = the 4 6s
    the other 2 dice are 5*5 = 25 (they can be 5 numbers and not the 6)
    but we have 6 dice and any 2 can be the non-6
    so keeping it easy
    6*5 / 2*1 = 15 = ways to choose 2 dice from 6 that are NOT the 6face
    15*25 = 375

    3 6s
    1*1*1
    5*5*5 = 125

    we have 6 dice and choose 3
    6*5*4 / 3*2*1 = 120 / 6 = 20

    20*125=2500
    sweet ;)


    the second pic is what the progressive needs to be to be an even bet so anything above is +EV
    [​IMG]
    do I hear sucker bet here?

    kind of like a sic-bo bet with mo dice
    I love dice games
    Sally
     
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    Last edited: Feb 24, 2015
    Jacob likes this.
  9. goatcabin, Feb 24, 2015

    goatcabin

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    64.8 from 30? No, doesn't sound right.

    29-to-25 on 6/8 is less than 7-to-6, barely.
    29-to-20 is slightly better than 7-to-5
    39-to-20 is much better than 9-to-5 (1.95 vs. 1.8)

    Most of these games pay the same as regular craps on the common bets.

    As far as the HA, it's a labor-intensive calculation.
    p(3) .16666^3 * .83333^3 times all the ways to arrange 3 sixes and 3 non-sixes

    p(4) .16666^4 * .83333^2 times all the ways to arrange 4 sixes and 2 non-sixes.

    Etc.Etc. Pain in the ass, and we all know the HA is high.
    p(6) of course, is .166666^6.

    Once you have all the probabilities, compare to payoffs.
     
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    Last edited: Feb 26, 2015

  10. Jacob

    Jacob Administrator
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    Thanks @MustangSally any everyone else that chimed in.

    This jackpot seems to be growing pretty slowly -- up to 24,897.58 now, so they added ~30 units in the past 12 hours or so. Presumably that rate of growth will accelerate as it gets closer to 34500, but it appears they are at least several months away from it becoming a good bet. I'll try to keep an eye on it if I remember.
     
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  11. MustangSally, Feb 24, 2015

    MustangSally

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    sure, it was fun
    nice find

    if you take 6d6 and roll them on the carpet as I can
    you will find getting 3,4 and even 5 6s can be done

    6 6s from an online casino
    I would not trust that unless I could see all the code that currently runs the game

    must play safe
    Sally
     
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  12. KokomoJoe4, Feb 24, 2015

    KokomoJoe4

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    LOL Jacob,

    even when it reaches the magical number that makes it a fair bet, you still have to -----------> hit it.

    I believe superrick will advise that MP be the shooter...
     
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  13. obie1

    obie1 Member

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    Not a bad calculation Morgue:,

    I believe the chances of rolling a "6" out of "36" possibilities is (5 out of 36) which = On average: one "6" out of every 7.2 Rolls...,

    Therefore: the chances of rolling 6 "6s' in a row should be: 7.2 to the 6th power (multiple) or; 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x 7.2 x7.2 > which equals 1 in 139,314. attempts...,

    I could be wrong; if anyone disagrees: please enlighten me.

    Thanks,

    Obie1
     
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    Last edited: Feb 24, 2015
  14. Dogalot, Feb 24, 2015

    Dogalot

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    If it is a progressive, shouldn't it increase faster if there are more people placing that particular bet? Or is it progress due to the amount of play the game is getting in total (and total amounts of those bets)? So, might get faster the more people get involved...
     
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  15. Dogalot, Feb 24, 2015

    Dogalot

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    Obie1 -- It's not played that way -- there are 4 other die in their own box that roll at the same time. If you rolled a 12, or any combination involving a 6, the other die are at play (of course, if you placed the bet)...
     
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  16. obie1

    obie1 Member

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    If there are more than 2 dice in play: I withdraw my calculation.

    If there are 2 dice in play..., I stand by my calculation:

    I believe the chances of rolling a "6" out of "36" possibilities is (5 out of 36) which = On average: one "6" out of every 7.2 Rolls...,

    Therefore: the chances of rolling 6 "6s' in a row should be: 7.2 to the 6th power (multiple) or; 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x 7.2x 7.2 > which equals 1 in 139,314. attempts...,

    I could be wrong; if anyone disagrees: please enlighten me.

    Thanks for that feedback

    Obie1,
     
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    Last edited: Feb 24, 2015
  17. MustangSally, Feb 24, 2015

    MustangSally

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    I say it was a real good one
    you are thinking about a different side bet

    and the chance (probability) you show is for the very next 6 rolls only
    1 in 139,314 = the probability of success

    it is only 1 chance in 26,258 over any 11 roll sequence
    so way easier when more rolls are allowed

    to add.
    now when you say attempts, we know each attempt is not one roll in length

    so that requires one more calculation that gives a factor of
    1.161281987 = the average number of rolls in each attempt
    so the average number of rolls to see 6 in a row 6s = 161,782.9194 (rounded)

    this is not the probability, just an average
    the probability of seeing at least 1 run of 6 in 161,783 rolls = 0.632121879048529
    not even a 2 in 3 shot of success

    I pass on making that bet, unless it has more pays for less in a row
    Sally
     
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  18. Dogalot, Feb 24, 2015

    Dogalot

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    obie1 - go back to the top of the thread with the screen shot. There is a box with 4 die next to the two that the roll decisions are based on... Those "roll" as well.
     
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  19. MustangSally, Feb 24, 2015

    MustangSally

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    64.8 from 30?
    sounds right to me
    given
    what they pay at 29/25

    that makes the house edge 1/55 (1 / 25+30) or about 1.82% (rounded)
    instead of the common 1/66 (1 / 30+36) or about 1.52% (rounded)

    any casino (especially online ones)
    can pay what ever they want and most players would (do) just keep on betting
    maybe a little more grumpy but still betting

    playing craps is fun!

    Sally
     
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  20. obie1

    obie1 Member

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    Aaah Dogalot....,

    You know what they say: when all else fails...."Read The Instructions..."...

    With that being said: ignore my posted calculations..., and instead look at Morgue's post #2..., I think he is correct in the math he posted.

    Whoops on me,

    Obie1
     
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