pressing

Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by lucky4688, Jul 1, 2009.

  1. lucky4688, Jul 1, 2009

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    looking to share place bet pressing strategies! Im always lookin for a new edge. My strategy i would consider moderately aggrressive
     
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  2. filthysanches, Jul 20, 2009

    filthysanches

    filthysanches Member

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    Im a poor man so it depends on what numbers im playing. 6&8 ill press up to 3 times never any more, I've seen too many folks press and press and press and at the very most break even. press up to three times that way it pays itself off faster. My betting also depends on who is shooting, a random roller or a controlled shooter, while this may or may not not mean anything to you I feel its an important to determine the length of the roll. If I see allot of outside numbers rolled i usually place but never press, again im a poor man have to play conservative. With this strategy I can and unfortunetly usually go up to the casino with 80 bucks and come back with a small profit, but not bad for a nights work.
     
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  3. lucky4688, Jul 25, 2009

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    filthy,

    Any profit from the casino is a good day, theres nothing unfortunate about that. When you say you only press your 6 and 8 up to three times. Do you mean you press one unit at a time, up to three times? I.E.. 12, 18, 24, or do you use a different system. Do you take the same bet every time after that? It is definately important to know who you are comfortable betting on. I to hate uncontrolled crazy shooters. The dice are meant to be tossed not thrown. I prefer a controlled shooter. When the dice go off the tale, roll all the way back to the prop bets, knock over stacks of chips, and get tossed really short, it is obviously aggravating when that seven jumps up. With that being said, i have seen the worst shooters with the most uncontrolled toss roll for a half hour and make the table a lot of money. Also, i've seen the most controlled shooters go point seven numerous times. Thats why they call the back wall a randomizer.
     
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  4. filthysanches, Jul 25, 2009

    filthysanches

    filthysanches Member

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    Lucky,
    If i place the 6 and 8 and i hit, lets say i hit the 6, ill press my winings one unit. Ill do this up to three times because laws of probability tells me that the shooter is due to seven out. So ill put $6 on six, a 6 will hit so instead of pulling my winnings ill press it on my original totalling $12. and so on until I reach 4 times the original bet, which in this case yould be $24 bucks. This seems to work for me with a fairly consistant success rate. Now pressing it three times is pushing it, allot of "experts" say press it only twice, but always keep in mind that the average random roller rolls 6 rolls before seven. Thats how i live so long at a table with so little money, I always keep this in the back of my mind.

    How about your aggressive strategy, what makes it aggressive.

    If your interested here is a some link to pressing strategies
    http://www.crapspit.org/crapbets.htm

    I might try some of these during my Reno trip next weekend Ill let you know how it goes.
     
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  5. lucky4688, Jul 26, 2009

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    filthy,

    I consider my strategy aggressive because i usually place the inside for 44. Sometimes 66 if i have the proper bankroll in front of me. I use the theory that 1 of every 10 shooters is gonna have a decent shake. So ill bring either 450 to the table or 650 depending on how aggressive i want to be. I leave my bets up. I never call them off, regress them, or take them down. I always take the first three payouts. Just to get my investment back. That would be 42 of the 44 inside. Or it would be 63 of the 66 dollar investment in that case. After which i press each number ever time its thrown. I do not press one unit at a time. However, although its considered moderately aggressive, i still do not believe in full pressing or parlaying. I believe you should always take at least approx. 50 percent of your winnings on every winning number, and then press with the rest.

    6 and 8

    12, 18, 30, 42, 60, 90, 150, 240, 360, 600., etc

    5 and 9

    10, 15, 25, 35, 50, 75, 125, 200, 350, 500, etc

    4 and 10

    10, 15, 25 (buy), 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, etc.

    I also utilize put bets if the casino allows.

    The initial investment is quite a bit to some players, but once i take three im almost even, then its time to press and make money. Yeah i understand that if i profited 1000 on someones roll and they seven out, then i just dumped almost 1000 that was on the layout. But i never take my bets down at any point. One move i will do is when my 6 or 8 gets to 600 if i do want to be conservative, i regress to 300 when its hit and take a 1000. 500 on the 5 or 9, when it hits regress to 200 and take 1000. Anyways, thats just a quick rundown of what i usually do. No, i;ve never gotten to table max, but i have had my numbers pressed very well. When that hot roll comes i;m taking advantage of it for sure.
     
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  6. filthysanches, Jul 27, 2009

    filthysanches

    filthysanches Member

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    Thats actually a real smart bet. Cause if you get a jump on that hot roll your golden. For either of our strategies we need some sort of device to predict the future, then we can make millions. too bad I guess we have to rely on gut feeling.
     
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  7. lucky4688, Jul 30, 2009

    lucky4688

    lucky4688 Member

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    filthy,

    Thanks,

    Yeah i've gotten lucky and caught some hot rolls when going inside for 66. Its nice when you start getting paid in quarters after only one or two presses on a number. 110 inside is too strong for my bankrolls, but i've started at all quarters quite a few times. I played a quarter table at ceasars last year for about an hour. I had no way near the bankroll i should have had, but i stuck it out and actually won about 700.
     
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  8. goatcabin, Feb 8, 2010

    goatcabin

    goatcabin Member

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    Actually, the "laws of probability" say nothing of the sort. I just started reading this forum, coming over from rec.gambling.craps, which has pretty much died out, and I am seeing a fair number of these statements, which are based on a misunderstanding of random numbers.

    Assuming (as I do), that the shooter is either not trying or unable to influence the dice, the probability of any given number showing on a roll NEVER CHANGES. It doesn't matter how many non-seven rolls, for example, have just occurred; the probability of the next roll being a seven is 1/6. The idea that a seven is somehow "due" is an illusion. Ask yourself how that would work.

    The "seven is due" idea comes, I believe, from this kind of reasoning:

    1. the odds against getting no "heads" in four flips of a fair coin are 15 to 1, a probability of only .0625.
    2. therefore, if the first three flips were "tails", the next flip is probably going to be "heads"

    This is probably the most common misconception about probability, i.e.
    the very significant difference between:

    1. the odds of an occurrence of some sequence of events BEFORE the
    sequence begins AND
    2. the changing probabilities of the sequence occurring DURING the
    sequence

    All you need to do is ask yourself these two questions:

    What is the probability, before you toss, of tossing two heads in a
    row with a fair coin? Answer: .25

    What is the probability, after the first toss is tails, of tossing two
    heads in a row with a fair coin? Answer: 0

    The probability started out at .25, but after the first toss, it is
    going to be either zero (if tails was thrown) or .5 (if the first toss
    was heads).

    Another way to look at it - here are the possible outcomes, before we start:

    HH .25
    HT .25
    TH .25
    TT .25
    --------
    1.00 (By definition, all the probabilities must add up to 1.0)

    If the first toss is "tails", here are the new probabilities:

    HH .00
    HT .00
    TH .5
    TT .5
    ------
    1.0

    Since the first roll was "tails", HH and HT are eliminated as possibilities for these two rolls, so their .25's are "redistributed" to the remaining two outcomes. The fact that, before we started, the probability of HH was .25 is now irrelevant.

    If you believe that some shooters can influence the dice to avoid the seven, then there would be even less reason to think it's "due", right?
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
     
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  9. filthysanches, Feb 9, 2010

    filthysanches

    filthysanches Member

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    Good catch, yeah this is a gamblers fallacy for sure. it opperates on the law of averages not probability as i mis-stated before. This is something that normally I would brush off as B.S, and as a matter of fact did, until i noticed a trend of it being more true than not. While it has no mathematical basis, well at least no reputable mathematical basis, it is much better to assume this rule less you loose all your money thinking that your gonna roll for ever, because the laws of nature are on your side. I use it as a guideline and a warning light. And random consistency aside, to assume you will only roll for 6 rolls assuming you have no control over the dice ;) will force you to bet smarter, and budget better.
    praise little Joe,
    filthy
     
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  10. ChumpChange, Feb 14, 2010

    ChumpChange

    ChumpChange Member

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    I bet on the Passline, or the Don't Come line, one bet in play at a time and progress upon winning as follows: $6, $6(repeating original bet because I'm fallacied like that), $8, $10, $12, $14, then go back down to $6. So I'm spending 30-60 minutes before I double $60, or lose it, or neither.
     
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