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Discussion in 'Advanced Craps' started by etr102, Jan 28, 2013.
Von duck will this calculation help you win during an eight hour grind?
I only ride first class ones, not the little yellow buses
Nobody asked that question till now. The question was, what are the odds on the all across bet. I'm only trying to answer the question, but you won't give me enough info to give a definitive answer. First let's establish the number, then we can delve into the virtues, or lack of, for this bet. Now, WTF are you betting on each number, and how do you want to play it place, or buy, 6&8 understood place.
Well, like your mate said "You can't fix stupid!"
He did buy a lottery ticket on the way home with his last couple of dollars and is now a millionaire though...
....The genius told him not to buy the ticket because of the high HA.
Depends on how big the jackpot is. I haven't run the numbers but I think that recent $1.3B made Powerball player positive even taking into account the prospect of a split (which actually happened), taxes, and the 30-year payout period.
I have to wonder when people will stop stressing over , "House advantage"
and realize that it actually has little or nothing to do with winning or losing
"WHEN TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION"
with all things , RELATIVE"
The , "MATE" , as you put it , seems to think that fixing stupid
is so difficult simply because he won't listen to intelligent people
who are constantly trying to help him .
He has chosen , instead to nuzzle up to the most negative oppinions
offered on this forum
Hopefully at some point , he will see the error of his ways and come around
If not , I am afraid , the only other option for him , would be to abandon all hope
Even though they claim your odds of getting hit by lightning is 7 times greater than winning I buy a few powerball tickets when it gets to nosebleed levels.
Also play the progressive $5 slots when a jackpot is super high for that particular machine but I never have hit one yet.
It's all about common sense and moderation. if you have the disposable income no harm in taking a shot now and then.
If you need the money for food, rent, or the plane payment due next week gambling is the last thing you should do with that money. Even if you found a way to create an advantage, nothing is guaranteed.
My wife plays one line every drawing; has yet to win anything more than the lone powerball.
I play five lines when the jackpot gets over a 100M; same with MegaMillions but only three lines. I suppose I could squeak by with less, but that threshold limits how much I squander chasing moonbeams invest in a highly speculative venture.
Amen to that!
For some people....it's how they do retirement planning.
Place the 6 and 8 for 6 dollars
First hit drop a nickel up to 3 units
Second hit collect and press other number to three units
4 dollar profit
The amount you're asking for is 18 dollars on 6 and 8
Again, the question was, what are the odds on the all across. The answer would depend on the proportion of the bet, that was on each number and in the case of 9/5 and 10/4 whether you were placing or buying. In order to determine the odds, that's what we need to know. There is not a "cut-and-dried", number that applies to the question. For $32 across, the answer would be as follows. 6x32 = $192 lost on 7s. 9x6= $54 won on 4/10 + 8x7= $56 won on 9/5 + 10x7= $70 won on 6/8. So, $180 won, $192 lost. Depending on what you do with this number, will determine the answer.
Some years back Zeke Feinberg "proved" that placing both 6 and 8 (HA=1.05%) had a lower house advantage than placing only one of them for the same total amount (HA=1.52%). Using the standard calculation for HA his numbers were correct, but the apparent "synergistic effect" is a mirage, created by comparing the house advantages of two bets which resolve at different rates. Both methods lose $2 on $12 action per decision over 36 theoretically distributed rolls, but the total bet handle for those 36 rolls is 11x$12=$132 for the single place bet and 16x$12=$192 for the combination. Normalizing the two methods to resolve at the same rate (i.e. per roll rather than per decision) yields, not surprisingly, 0.46% IIRC for both methods.
The same sleight of hand produces a house advantage of 1.25% for the $32 across example, and is equally useless for comparison to the individual HA's of the place bets making up the combination.
I was getting numbers that I felt were deceiving, though technically correct, and that is the reason I didn't take it to final number. My number was less than the H/E on the 6&8 alone, so I didn't feel that it could be a good representation. The odds are always deceiving when their are "pushed" type results involved. One must be careful.
I read, or maybe only heard, that when personal computers first became available many small businesses encountered financial difficulties when their owners developed spreadsheets that contained errors. Not being IT professionals these owners did not check their spreadsheets, preferring instead to take the results, which showed that business was booming, at face value...and then reality showed up and rained on the parade. "If it's too good to be true then it probably isn't."
It's like life insurance illustrations....Back in the 80's everybody was selling universal life and said whole life sucked......they would show illustration getting 12% ( which at the time was accurate) but it wasn't a forever rate and would decline as interest rates went down......I was getting 'killed' in the sales department as I could not compete with what people were being shown....I knew those rates would not hold, but the greed gene is powerful.....in later years, when people were being asked for more premium to keep their policy in force, there were some pissed off people.....
My point being, I support what midnite is saying.....that is, if you see something on a spread sheet or a computer tabulated piece of paper, people tend to believe it......"hey, it's computer generated, it's gotta be true.".........my yellow legal pad and pencil came in second, but I gave the clients straight information and did not promise the moon......
Anyone 30 or younger has not experienced what it was like in the early 80's with interest rates in the teens. The first place we bought in 1981 was 18% interest. 3 years later we bought a different house and felt blessed to only have to pay 12%.
If the government ever loses control of interest rates and they go there again it'll be very ugly.
What people have experienced for the past years RE: interest rates, they will never see again in their life time. It is dirt cheap money.
The gov't can't afford to have rates go too high due to the national debt.....it will finish off the country quick......but they will go up some.
A quick story....back in the 80's I sold my house....I played the bank.....I charged the kid only 12% interest which was several points below what he could get at the bank for a mortgage. I had him give me a hefty down payment so if he bailed I'd keep the money and get back my house. Everything worked out for everybody......when rates came down he paid me off and re-financed. The best deals are those where everybody lives.
I bought a house in a very nice area, where I live now...... everybody thought I was crazy due to the high rates, but houses were not selling well and the final price off-set rates....I re-financed when rates came down.
Back when laser printers first came out I almost wrote to HP suggesting they develop a supercharged model capable of printing on tablets to enhance credibility of results. Then I thought of the protective gear the operator would have to wear and the lawsuits that would undoubtedly follow "an accident".
It's not easy selling an intangible product, you can't see, touch, feel, or smell.....only a promise.
Insurance salesman are viewed as 2 notchs below this guy...
"It's not easy selling an intangible product, you can't see, touch, feel, or smell.....only a promise."
Those trying to sell DI can vouch for that. lol.