NFL picks contest (Year 2)

Discussion in 'Offtopic Lounge' started by TDVegas, Sep 4, 2019.

  1. TDVegas, Sep 17, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    I just looked over the past 2 weeks generically to see if I could spot any patterns....home teams covering, underdog covering, away teams, etc...

    Nothing stuck out. I didn't check the over/unders...that may need to be looked at.

    Again, past results are generally not a selling point for future picks but I was wondering if anything stuck out. I went with 5 home teams...each giving points. Time will tell.
     
    #121
    yacraps likes this.
  2. Bases loaded, Sep 17, 2019

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,856
    Likes Received:
    1,683
    Ok, Week 3's sheet has been analysed, reviewed, and double checked. I've run the numbers, and stress tested the output.

    So, here's my wild ass guesses....

    Falcons +3
    Cards +2 1/2
    Niners -7
    RAMS -3
    Bears -4 1/2
     
    #122
    yacraps likes this.
  3. basicstrategy777, Sep 17, 2019

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,220
    Likes Received:
    8,411
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    Eli benched.

    777
     
    #123
    yacraps likes this.
  4. TDVegas, Sep 17, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    Everyone is getting in on the action.

    Miami has become an outright embarrassing organization. Can’t remember seeing a prop sheet like this before...especially this early in the season.

    CE4A5095-00A5-4F31-988E-D2C704F9BB4F.jpeg
     
    #124
    yacraps likes this.
  5. Bases loaded, Sep 17, 2019

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,856
    Likes Received:
    1,683
    They're fine. I see the Jets on the sheet twice. That makes them 2 - 14
     
    #125
    yacraps likes this.
  6. Bases loaded, Sep 17, 2019

    Bases loaded

    Bases loaded Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,856
    Likes Received:
    1,683
    Wow. Panic, or just good time to get the future started?

    Don't know if it will help or hurt the Giants?
     
    #126
    yacraps likes this.
  7. TDVegas, Sep 17, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    Jets hired the guy Miami fired. I knew they were doomed when ink hit paper. Gase is a clown.

    Didn’t understand the hiring at all.
     
    #127
    yacraps likes this.
  8. TDVegas, Sep 17, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    $600 gets you $100.
     
    #128
    yacraps and Bases loaded like this.
  9. basicstrategy777, Sep 18, 2019

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,220
    Likes Received:
    8,411
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    I love Eli, but the change was the right play.....one of my rules in my book is, if what you are doing is not working YOU MUST CHANGE SOMETHING.....

    I feel this move will help the Giants, maybe immediately but for sure the last 4 games and onward.

    Eli has not played bad but sometimes a different voice is needed and will yield results...it just is.........the coach should not have announced the move as now opposition for next game can prepare better.

    777
     
    #129
    TDVegas and yacraps like this.
  10. TDVegas, Sep 18, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    Overall, I think the Giants were a better run, better disciplined team under Coughlin. He was the biggest CRANK you ever set your eyes on....but he ran that team without tolerating any of the weekly bullshit that has plagued this organization since he left. He handed McAdoo a well run team even though they missed the playoffs...over the next two years things imploded. Hasn't been right since.

    Players age. Skills degrade. Eli is no different. Just a normal situation. It's not all on him. Giants and Jets both look pretty bad this year.
     
    #130
    basicstrategy777 and yacraps like this.
  11. basicstrategy777, Sep 18, 2019

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,220
    Likes Received:
    8,411
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    If I had any stones I'd bet money on the Giants this week....the kid is smart ( Duke)...can move very well....is extremely accurate.....he might be the next Joe Montana......my all time #1 quarterback.......777

    777
     
    #131
    yacraps likes this.
  12. basicstrategy777, Sep 18, 2019

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,220
    Likes Received:
    8,411
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
    eagles
    falcons
    seahawks
    forty-niners
    rams

    777
     
    #132
    yacraps likes this.
  13. basicstrategy777, Sep 19, 2019

    basicstrategy777

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2010
    Messages:
    9,220
    Likes Received:
    8,411
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    CT.
  14. von duck, Sep 19, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    2,514
    Gender:
    Male
    Don't know about week 1, but in week 2, the under was a big winner. Why are both teams negative, in the money line, for Thursday's game?
     
    #134
  15. von duck, Sep 19, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2017
    Messages:
    9,518
    Likes Received:
    2,514
    Gender:
    Male
    That pretty good, almost sounds like you've actually seen cricket being played. That term "dead rubber"? I'm not sure what it means in cricket, but if you here anybody say "dead rubber" here on the forum, they're talking about that condom, that TD carries in his wallet. :)
     
    #135
  16. TDVegas, Sep 19, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    Unders went 13-3 on the week and now sit at 20-12 on the year.

    No idea why both teams are negative moneylines....but I have seen negative money lines for both teams in MLB.
     
    #136
    yacraps likes this.
  17. yacraps, Sep 19, 2019

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Messages:
    3,619
    Likes Received:
    3,986
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    san diego
    titans
    colts
    cards
    texans
    redskins
     
    #137
    basicstrategy777 and TDVegas like this.
  18. TDVegas, Sep 19, 2019

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2014
    Messages:
    16,708
    Likes Received:
    10,515
    Very tough picking, imo.

    3 games into the season and up to one quarter of the teams are using a QB who wasn’t going to be the opening game starter.

    Looks windy and wet tonight. Good luck.
     
    #138
    yacraps likes this.
  19. yacraps, Sep 19, 2019

    yacraps

    yacraps Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2011
    Messages:
    3,619
    Likes Received:
    3,986
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    san diego
    with the weather being the way it is the under bet must be going crazy...books are tough to beat...except for 777s,Mr.inside and of coarse the Twelve man
     
    #139
    TDVegas likes this.
  20. Night Attack, Sep 19, 2019

    Night Attack

    Night Attack Member

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2014
    Messages:
    725
    Likes Received:
    861
    Gender:
    Male
    Typically when the game is so close for the betting public the spread will be a PK and -110 for both sides which in effect should be the same as the money line. That way the book can ensure the juice. These movements are all about getting equal action on both sides as the books are not in the business of gambling themselves which is why they will occasionally layoff elsewhere if the monetary difference is material.
     
    #140
    yacraps and TDVegas like this.