NFL picks contest (Year 2)

Discussion in 'Offtopic Lounge' started by TDVegas, Sep 4, 2019.

  1. von duck, Sep 15, 2019

    von duck

    von duck Member

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    Tough to find anything I really liked on the sheet, but here goes.
    Lions +3
    Titans -3
    Chiefs -9.5
    Rams -3
    Vikings +3
    Again no locks, couldn't even find a game I wanted to put money on. :confused:
    :cool:
     
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  2. basicstrategy777, Sep 15, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    Like horseracing, you learn you don't bet every race......but this is for fun , so what the heck......I hope you win 4 out of 5 duck.

    777
     
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  3. von duck, Sep 15, 2019

    von duck

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    This photo is pretty typical of what to "New NFL" looks like. His attitude exactly matches that photo too. What you see, is what you get. He plays like he looks too. :cool: 0 for 8, in his last 8 starts. :) Awesome!
     
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  4. TDVegas, Sep 15, 2019

    TDVegas

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    You can only find them after the game is over. You would need one of his “clients” to post the picks pre game.

    While he was 2-6 or 3-9 last week or whatever....I accept no picks after the fact. Same goes for a roll of the dice or dealt cards.:cool:

    He claims an overall 60% win rate.

    I call bollocks. Only Twelve4s can do that.
     
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  5. TDVegas, Sep 15, 2019

    TDVegas

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    It's a shadow. :p

    Btw....

    If it was a "spill"....it would be a lager or amber spill.:D
     
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  6. von duck, Sep 15, 2019

    von duck

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    I believe 60% is doable. If a coin flip will get you 50%, and it will, a guy with the time to look at all of the angles, injuries, officiating crew, weather, team psych, individual match ups, etc, might be able to better a coin flip by two games a week.
     
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  7. basicstrategy777, Sep 15, 2019

    basicstrategy777

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    Where have you read anywhere that someone gets 6 out of 10.......nowhere...that's where.

    777
     
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  8. von duck, Sep 15, 2019

    von duck

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    I saw a guy do it on this forum, during the regular season, last year. A GD coin, will get you 50%. I'm sure there are a few guys that can do it. I doubt if any of the touts can. You're not picking six out of ten, because you have 5 in the bag to begin with. you have a fifty/fifty shot, picking them blind, or stupid, TD can almost get 50%. Being selective is probably, the main thing.
     
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  9. MisterInside, Sep 15, 2019

    MisterInside

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    BUT.......Is it possible to be able to pick 60% LOSERS consistently? Haven't we all seen
    a guy who never, ever wins?
     
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  10. von duck, Sep 15, 2019

    von duck

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    Sure, we got a guy with a chance at a perfect 0/5 week, right now. Same guy had two 0/5s last season. It's a special talent. :)
     
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  11. yacraps, Sep 15, 2019

    yacraps

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    Twelves is the man
    that be me :)
     
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  12. von duck, Sep 15, 2019

    von duck

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    :confused: How are doing in the cricket matchs? :)
     
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  13. Night Attack, Sep 15, 2019

    Night Attack

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    Fine. The Aussies retained the ashes by winning the previous test match and anything after that is more or less a dead rubber. Of course they wanted to win the last test match as well but they did not.

    As for betting on cricket, I do not. And by the way I'm going in the NFL picks so far I would be better served to stick to craps.
     
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  14. MisterInside, Sep 15, 2019

    MisterInside

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    Play of the Week? Bears edge Broncos 16-14 as rookie placekicker goes 3-3.

    Eddy Pineiro nails a 53 yarder at Mile High to defeat the Broncos on game's last play.


     
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  15. von duck, Sep 16, 2019

    von duck

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    Problem with football is, people have all kinds of emotional bullshit about it. They like this team hate that team, etc, it clouds their judgment. Also, they, they "weight" one bad game, much more than they should. It's tough to handicap football, without some predisposed biases, working their way into your program. A good handicapper, would most likely analyze, in a very "clinical" manner, no biases. I think the average "Joe" picks about 45% winners, :cool: So, most likely about a 15% "rake" for the house. In my oppinion, the line is not set to bring equal action on both teams, but more to steer the bettor to the wrong team. There are times when I know damned well the action would not go down even. When I see this, I'm inclined to bet the opposite of where I think the money is. I'll call a few of these type bets as the season progresses. :)
     
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  16. MisterInside, Sep 16, 2019

    MisterInside

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    Way back in the late 60's and early 70's, I knew a guy who sold what we called 'pools' on the East coast. Most people probably call them parlay cards. For $1, you could pick 4-15 teams against the spread. Most people played 4 teams which paid $10 or 9 for 1; 5 teams $16; 6 teams $26; 7 teams $45; I forget 8 and 9; 10 teams $300; 9 of 10 paid $30; 15 paid $1000; 14 out of 15 paid $100. In the many thousands of dollars of pools that he sold, there was only ONE $300 winner and nobody ever hit 14 of 15. By the way, ties would LOSE not push. There were no 2 point (pro) conversions back then and extra points were automatic. That meant that many lines were 3-4-6-7-8 points which caused many more ties than exist today. I remember now that 8 teams paid $75 and 9 paid $150.

    He made a 30% commission and sold a couple hundred dollars worth each week. Instead of taking the 30% in cash, he bought pools. He was a pretty good handicapper back in the day. He liked to "wheel" his best bet each week with other multiple picks. He played 4 teams cards only. His 'best bet' seemed like the LEAST LIKELY team to win according to the masses. He called this pick "the fix of the week". The fix of the week, back then, won more times than it lost. Seriously. He wondered about the integrity of the NFL and the referees, but that argument always hit the same wall. "They" couldn't keep something like that quiet. Too many people would have to be involved. The same is true today, in my opinion.

    That was a very nice post VD. I do disagree with you as I think that the line is set to hopefully get 50% of the money bet on each team. That never happens, of course. Books LAY OFF regularly when they are too heavy on one particular team. It's hard for them to lose when they can lay off action.

    How could they afford to pay 30% commission you might ask. The odds of a 10 teamer is 1024 for 1, excluding ties. You all know that but, I bet, the 30% commission surprises you.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 16, 2019
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  17. von duck, Sep 16, 2019

    von duck

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    I will call these bets when I see them we'll see how they go. Didn't say anything about a fix, just that the "line maker" knows more than anybody else. Who do the "books" lay off to? By the way, one safety slacking, and you have no defense at all, but I don't think that is how the game is "shaded". I think it has more to do with Q-B "tells", etc. :cool:
     
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  18. MisterInside, Sep 16, 2019

    MisterInside

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    Books lay off to other books, whenever possible.

    What percent of games have a safety? My point was that 50 years ago, game differentials were more often 3-4-6-7-8 points than they are today. I didn't do a research paper on it, but I'd bet that's true.

    When Sam Rosenthal sets the line, he takes into account how he thinks money will fall. I'm sure that he 'cheats' on the Cowboys and Steelers, for example, because of their huge fan base. His goal is to get 50-50 action, NOT to outsmart the betting public.

    I think that I read that Las Vegas has only lost money on 3 Super Bowls. Some of that is due
    to the high margin prop bets, but the accuracy of the line in getting 50/50 action accounts
    for a lot of the Las Vegas success as well.
     
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  19. MisterInside, Sep 16, 2019

    MisterInside

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    Current ODDS to Win Super Bowl. Updated after Brees/Roethlisberger injury update.

    NE +250
    KC +600
    DAL, LAR +1200
    PHL +1500
    GB +1800
    BAL +2000
    CHIC, SF, SEA +2500
    ATL, CLE, HOU, LAC, MIN +3000
    NO +4000
    BUF, DET +7500
    CAR, IND, PIT, TAM, TEN +10000
    OAK +15000
    DEN, JAX, NYJ +25000
    ARZ, CIN, NYG, WAS +50000
    MIA +2500000 (not a misprint)

    printed for informative purposes only and not an inducement to wager
     
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  20. MisterInside, Sep 16, 2019

    MisterInside

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    With Roethlisberger out for the season, we may have seen the last of him. Two SB rings, he's in my
    top 10 quarterbacks of all time. As a Ravens fan, I hope that he hangs up the cleats. He was greatest in the last 2 minutes with the game on the line.

    Who comprises my TOP TEN?

    Top 3 are easy:
    1) Brady
    2) Montana
    3) Unitas (3 rings, 3 MVPs, held EVERY meaningful QB record when he retired. Was the most
    highly recognized player in the NFL during the popularity explosion of the 60's).

    4 thru 10 are tough. Listed alphabetically:
    -Favre
    -Graham
    -Manning
    -Marino (no rings, only 1 MVP but a helluva lot of records)
    -Roethlisberger
    -Starr
    -Staubach
     
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