New System: 6 & 8 - 12 for 14 system

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Craps Poopshoot, May 7, 2017.

  1. TDVegas, May 12, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    You guys should have listened to me...

    Macy's plummeted 17% Thursday.

    a bunch of them got creamed this week.

    10K buy in....you just won $1,700.
     
    #201
    Last edited: May 12, 2017
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  2. random_roller, May 12, 2017

    random_roller

    random_roller Member

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    Nice call on Macy's. I don't follow retail at all. Nvidia (NVDA) had a nice bump this week (more than +20%). I might have to take a closer look at shorting that stock.
     
    #202
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  3. TDVegas, May 12, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Tech has been on a run...not sure I would short anything in the sector right now. At least not yet.

    SNAP would have been a nice short. Down 22% on earnings.

    Hell, ya wanna make some money on tech?---pick 10 tech companies and do nothing but short them 1 minute before the market closes on their earnings announcement day. Then close out the short the next day.

    Upside stock movement is VERY difficult. Downside?....seems no matter what the report is (unless they beat handily on EVERY line item)...the stock drops. Some get hammered (like SNAP). Previous FB earnings report (October- December) was a beat...stock down $8. This report (Jan.-March)...missed. Stock was down $3 after hours. It's still at a record high...but earnings days have become nerve racking for me.

    Seems like a no brainer. 40 attempts (10 stock x 4 earnings reports) during the year. I'll almost guarantee 30 of them will show a stock drop on earnings day. It's not an indictment on the company or the stock...but investors and traders get irrational on earnings and dump. Why not make some money on their irrationality?

    Wanna make some big money?...use put options on earnings. Risky and ya need not only an iron gut but one with depleted uranium---but could be extremely rewarding.
     
    #203
    Last edited: May 12, 2017
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  4. badddoin, May 13, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    Kinda reminds me of the ol' saying: The market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.
     
    #204
  5. basicstrategy777, May 13, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    As you get older, it's not a return ON your money, it's a return OF your money.

    You youngsters better have a Plan B to cover a sharp market reversal ala 2008, or even worse.

    777
     
    #205
  6. Twelve4s, May 13, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Playing options in the stock market is like playing prop bets at craps. You might get some big wins, but do it often enough, and you will lose your ass.
     
    #206
  7. basicstrategy777, May 13, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    It a real tough game and as usual, greed is the cause for losses.

    A great way to play options is own the stock and sell the calls.....hard not to make money that way.

    777
     
    #207
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  8. Twelve4s, May 13, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    I used to play around in the market, when young and single, with some disposable income. Just like craps, some winners and some losers, and of course the vig. Seems like index funds are the way to go nowadays?
     
    #208
  9. betwthelines, May 13, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    why?

    dont misunderstand. that question does revolve around what you mean by "youngster"...if you began working at 21 in 1999 and were smart enough to start putting small amounts into the market (with gradually increasing amounts one would hope) and with, for example, let's say, the expectation of retiring at 65 in 2043, the 2008 great recession will have had approximately zero affect on your retirement.

    indeed the market has already recovered to levels higher than prior to that recession....such "youngster" is already better off than before 2008...

    the only time such a recession really, really, really hurts is for soon to retire peoples if bad declines happen just before retirement...say 10 years and on without recovery (even 20 years has happened).

    hell, even some of us old farts who ARE retired were not hurt all that much by the great recession...have recovered from it...

    EVEN THEN THE "HURT" while very real, IS MAINLY
    PSYCHOLOGICAL.you have still been much better off being in the market than not...NEVER over ANY 44 year period, our example here, ---start ANYWHERE you wish, this century, the last century, the 1800s--- has the market done worse than, for example, your "investment" in social security. (actually the real stats show that statement as true over just something like a 30 year period, much shorter than the "average" work-life span)...this true statement too is adjusted for inflation.

    now i say "mainly" psychological as the plans one was making with his paper wealth may very well have been dashed by the actual material, market recession (other factors can apply too, eg a divorce) so i am not trying to minimize a plan b...my point is only that it those nearing retirement in, say 10-15 years prior that really need a "plan b"..."youngsters" in fact may not, which was your assertion.

    just sayin'...no biggie...just another perspective from a contrarian who does not completely "buy in" to the common "wisdom" that the great recession was this big disaster.

    and by the way, 7s i see no problem whatsoever with you using this recession as a template to sell your products...in fact as an unreconstructed capitalist (and former salespuke myself), i see it as admirable! & wish you only the best in your business endeavors.

    wealth creation is good.

    tom p
     
    #209
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  10. badddoin, May 13, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    Sure seems like a boom-n-bust cycle is the new norm. Any speculation on what the next bubble might be?
     
    #210
  11. Twelve4s, May 13, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    How about this one?


    IMG_2192.JPG
     
    #211
  12. badddoin, May 13, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    BTW, you are absolutely correct. Those folks that had the intestinal fortitude (guts) to continue making retirement contributions through the plunge did real well. They benefited from some really cheap stock prices. The problem was, it sure didn't look that way at the time.
     
    #212
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  13. TDVegas, May 13, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    Like gambling, you have to be a bit lucky in the market. I've come to the point...pick a solid product (I thought the iPhone was unreal in 2007 upon release)....

    A good leader...

    And hold on tight. I got distracted with Steve Jobs illness and that was one of the reasons I bailed. The stock moved on his latest health report...not product selling.

    Buffet will tell you the same thing. Buying and selling, trying to time it is near impossible. You can make a lot of money in the market with good choices. If the casino presented the same opportunities...I wouldn't be playing $1 bubble craps.

    I'm big on the 3 right now...
    FB
    AMZN
    APPLE

    And I like Bofa.
     
    #213
  14. basicstrategy777, May 13, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    tomp....it can be said, the quality of life is dependent upon your plan B. And, it should be noted, plan B should contain different elements than your plan A.

    People often quote the average return in the market is about 10%....but they never quote what the average return of an investor is. I can assure you it is considerably lower.

    And you are right about the timing of the market dump.. If you had 500,000 and were 65 and ready to retire ....and the dow got cut in half like it did in 2008....you now have 250. Not good and everything is now changed in a not good way.

    There are only 2 ways to make money....you need alot of time or alot of money.
    If you are 65 or over and you have no money and no time, you are up the creek and have to use the lottery as your retirement plan.

    My main, overall point was, even if you are young and in the market, this does not guarantee success. You can have 2 people, both making exactly 8% after 20 years, yet the amount of money they have is significantly differerent. Sequence of returns is key in investing.

    I just worry about people that work and save from 20 to 60, 40 years, with the idea of enjoying retirement; how would they feel, how would their life change if they lose it all or most of it. People must be careful, especially as they get older. Time is like altitude to a pilot....the more you have the safer you will be and have time to recover.

    Like the Trumpster said in' the art of the deal'....you want to micro-manage the downside....don't worry about the upside.

    When all is said and done....plan B's and C's are not a bad idea...IMHO.

    And BTW....I'm not trying to sell anything...we're just echanging idea on the subject......BUT....I do have a book to sell you.

    777
     
    #214
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  15. betwthelines, May 13, 2017

    betwthelines

    betwthelines Member

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    it is not "new" at all

    boom and bust have always been part and parcel of capitalism and a not irrational criticism by anti-capitalists.

    paraphrasing winston churchill who said that democracy is not a very good form of government but it is just that we have not discovered anything better...knowing what we know about churchill's thought process, he might just as well have been talking about capitalism.

    tom p

    "The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries."
    --winston churchill
     
    #215
  16. TDVegas, May 13, 2017

    TDVegas

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    The elimination of defined pensions is going to have negative implications for years to come. Even those collecting $18-$25K per year in pensions...coupled with $14k in SS....they will be ok. Not living high on the hog but ok.

    People who aren't getting a defined pension and have been lax in funding their IRA's or 401ks are going to pay a steep price.

    My friend at MGM...he said they have matching contributions up to 5%. He says he can't believe how many either don't partake or only take a minimum. It's FREE money!!
     
    #216
  17. basicstrategy777, May 13, 2017

    basicstrategy777

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    I wish I knew badddoin.....but I do know one thing for certain....you cannot time the market.

    777
     
    #217
  18. Onautopilot, May 13, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    Thanks! My retirement is a tad more than your example, but I am happy to hear that I will be o.k.!

    Did that o.k. include casino tours? :)
     
    #218
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  19. badddoin, May 13, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    BUT IT'S DUE!!
     
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  20. random_roller, May 13, 2017

    random_roller

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    Often it's a cash flow issue. College loan, auto, mortgage/rent payments eat up a high percentage of take home pay. It's often worse for a single person who don't have a roommate to share common expenses.

    Someone who participates in a retirement plan with a company match has to be vigilant and make sure not to keep too high a percentage of assets in company stock, which is usually the source of the company match. Years ago my 401K took a big hit when my former employer filed for bankruptcy.
     
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