New System: 6 & 8 - 12 for 14 system

Discussion in 'General Craps Discussion' started by Craps Poopshoot, May 7, 2017.

  1. Craps Poopshoot, May 7, 2017

    Craps Poopshoot

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    I have been playing with a new system...

    First, I want to set a goal to make roughly $15 a shooter. I can do this with my current don'ts play that is working out very well, but I want to do it with a do's play too.

    So, this is what I have worked out..

    When I find a table that is seemingly warm; that is no PSO's and the shooters are generally rolling 3 insides rolls before any seven, and I have already considered NOT playing don'ts on that table.

    Here is my method
    New shooter. They must set the inside point on the first roll. Any roll that does not set the inside point disqualifies that shooter and we wait for the next shooter.

    Once the inside point is set, I will bet the 6 and 8 for $6 each. On a win of the first 6 I tell the dealer to place the 9, or if the 8 wins first then I place the 5.

    If by 4 rolls of the shooter I have not hit my win-takedown conditions, I then tell the dealer to take down all the bets and I wait for the next shooter

    On the next win, I tell the dealer to take it all down and I wait for the next shooter.

    This above method has worked out very well over the last week. I am risking $12 to make $14

    View more at my tumbler blog
     
    #1
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  2. Onautopilot, May 7, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    As good as most strategies, better than some. A low volatility, and not too much risk for reward. I hope it continues to work well for you.
     
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  3. Dave G Ct, May 7, 2017

    Dave G Ct

    Dave G Ct Member

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    I had a similar play.On that first hit went to $22 inside.My mistake was trying to get it up to $44 inside before waiting for that last hit.Should have used yours.
     
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  4. badddoin, May 8, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    I agree this is as good an approach as any, but I have some issues with this type of "in-and-out" play.

    Seems to me that it's based on "due-theory." And I don't really have a problem with that, aside from the fact that you're basically dealing yourself out of the occasional long roll.

    My problem is with coming down on all bets. Why not lay the four or ten at that point? It fits right in with the theory (IMO). If your table stays "warm" then it would seem likely you'd hit more than 50 percent of the laying bets.

    Following that due-theory logic, maybe only lay a number if it's rolled already during this hand.

    I'm not intending to single you out, CPS, I've been thinking about this for awhile, as it pertains to "three-hits-and-down, four-hits-and-down, two-hits-and-down, etc.

    I'm not near smart enough to run sims, but maybe OAP could run one.
     
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  5. Craps Poopshoot, May 8, 2017

    Craps Poopshoot

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    The idea is to play "with a plan, with a goal", and not just with HOPE for a long roll that is very elusive here in Vegas!
    This is not based on any 'due theory', it is based on the math! The idea is to make a bit of profit on each shooter.
    Laying the 4 and 10 can be done if those numbers are not being hit that often and the rolls are short. Otherwise just work the system as I stated and enjoy the wins.
     
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  6. KokomoJoe4, May 8, 2017

    KokomoJoe4

    KokomoJoe4 Member

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    Plans & goals work no better and no worse than hope, although it can be said that a method of play (a plan) that includes a minimal number of low HE bets is probably (but not definitely) going to be better than a plan that doesn't even consider the consequences of method of play.

    When the shooter seven outs before he has made you a profit, he's history, until his next roll. Now the planner must "hope" to do better on the next guy.

    When playing at Venetian and Palazzo, I did not one time place the 6 or the 8. Odds and outsides only, usually one at a time. Worked pretty well, but no skill involved - just an observation that, as advised, the outsides would show better than the insides :confused:.
     
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  7. TDVegas, May 8, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    I stayed net positive in 2016 thru low house edge wagers. It certainly wasn't a lot, I could not depend on it to continue and I was lucky. Playing against 1.41% or 1.54% or 0% and keeping your head above water for an extended time is not some impossibility.

    On the flip side...no one is depending on it as a sure fire way to win at craps. It's not. If it happens, it was luck. Not a whole lotta luck (you don't need it)...but just a little.

    These people are still working day jobs because they simply don't know if Lady Luck is going to hit them....or not. They will know after the fact. No one quits their job to focus on craps with that basis.

    Discipline, patience, "game face"....you still need luck. Random luck.

    Wonderful. What about the week prior to that?

    If you're confident this works well and can be utilized as a money maker and not just have to get lucky...I'm willing to submit it to a test. I'll track you playing this method for 25 sessions. Let's see what happens after 25 sessions. I'll report results back here.

    If this system actually works...why $6? Start at $6....go to $12.....$18....$24. By now in your Vegas playing career, you should be at a level greater than $6....

    If...if....it actually works.

    They call it a Kelly progression.

    The reality is I'm sure it works sometimes...others not. If sometimes is more than not and you discount luck as the factor, then it would be foolish to not up the ante.
     
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    Last edited: May 8, 2017
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  8. badddoin, May 8, 2017

    badddoin

    badddoin Member

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    OK, so the math. You mean like the 7 appears 1 in 6 rolls? And the table is warm with no PSOs, and shooters hitting 3 or 4 points then SO? So when you take all your bets down, why is that? Alright it's based on the math. Great. So the math doesn't suggest to you that the player is more likely than not to keep hitting box numbers, else you wouldn't pull your bets, right?

    So then, following your logic, and using the math, I'm just a little hard-pressed to figure out, why laying a number or two at that point doesn't fit.

    It probably doesn't make much sense at the 6 dollar level, because you haven't yet "earned" enough to cover a 41 dollar lay.
     
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  9. Onautopilot, May 8, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    Actually, a sim would just show what the mathematical expectation would be for each scenario, or very close.

    One hit and down on 6 or8, has about a 5/11 winning expectation, and you get paid 7 to 6.

    Two hits and down has a 5/11 x 5/11 chance.....three and down 511 x 5/11 x 5/11, and so on.

    1 hit about a 45% chance, 2 hits, about a 21% chance, 3 hits, about a 9% chance.

    No bet is the very best scenario, followed by one hit, etc.

    But what it boils down to is the old adage....push the balloon in on one side, and it bulges out the other side the same amount...or almost.

    So with more hits and down, you lose a lot more bets, but when you win, you win a lot more money, than one hit and down.

    What the one hit and down has going for it over multiple hits and down, is the lower volatility....small risk, small return. The multiple and down has a larger risk, but also a larger return, with added volatility.

    Ya bets your quarter and ya takes your chances. :)

    Disclaimer.....I do most of my math in my head or pencil scratching, so I'm not guaranteeing it's spot on. :)
     
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    Last edited: May 8, 2017
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  10. TDVegas, May 8, 2017

    TDVegas

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    OK, well now I'm confused because ONE WEEK later you say this....

    Well, either the evidence is clear or not, poop. You seem to be saying two different things here. In the first post "the evidence is clear" that dice influence is not real...and then the second post where you claim you can influence. You can't be a little bit pregnant.

    Which is it???

    If I could influence "two or three rolls" per session....I would be writing this from a beach in Hawaii.
     
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  11. Liman

    Liman Member

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    first rule of thumb when posting on a craps board, never, ever, at anytime bring logic into the equation. you might not only get heat from other posters, theres a chance you will be banned.
    Logic and craps boards don't mix, like oil and water.

    (btw, if and only if I was using your kind of logical and common sense reasoning, why would I use a system that works and only bet 18, 24, why not start at at 600 on 6 or 8? 500 on the 5 or 9?)
     
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  12. TDVegas, May 8, 2017

    TDVegas

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    It's amazing isn't it?. When I hear this stuff from the short bussers...

    Question 1....does the play, the strategy, the concept, the plan actually WORK??

    If yes...

    Question 2...WTF does it matter what color chip is in use (green, purple, black, orange)

    They are always wagering with red.

    What we are really talking about here is someone playing a low house edge strategy who wins with it sometimes and loses with it sometimes. Nothing more. There's no "toys" being bought. There's no one contemplating whether to "turn pro" and there is no one "playing with an advantage".

    How is that different than ANY of us here.

    What the hell is this "I sit at the Palms and I observe what's happening"....?
    Who cares what you observe...

    Does the strategy work is the only question...

    Then I refer to Question 2 above...

    Luck isn't a strategy to beat craps.
     
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  13. TDVegas, May 8, 2017

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    You want guaranteed money?....buy Apple.

    800 billion and counting.
     
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  14. Twelve4s, May 8, 2017

    Twelve4s

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    If they are Really going to build their own car, it might be a good time to short the stock. But I suspect Apple cars is just more fake news?
     
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  15. Onautopilot, May 8, 2017

    Onautopilot

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    Yeah, I think Forest Gump did well when some of his money got invested in that "fruit" company. :)
     
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  16. Twelve4s, May 8, 2017

    Twelve4s

    Twelve4s Member

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    Life is like a box of chocolates or a basket of apples.
     
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  17. Freddyy, May 8, 2017

    Freddyy

    Freddyy Member

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    I found betting minimum unit don't let you press or spread bets as easy and put you at a disadvantage. Best starting level is 3 units. Cuz it almost pays 4 units on 6-8 and reinvestment is low. You can also spread bets for 2 units on 2 outside numbers at a time on a win. Now that is what I like. But it does shorten your session on a bad day, although most people will bet 250-300$ anyway, but I found my winning side to cover more losses that way.
     
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  18. von duck, May 8, 2017

    von duck

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    Very elusive in Vegas? I can show you some places where They are a lot more ELUSIVE, than Vegas.
     
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  19. TDVegas, May 8, 2017

    TDVegas

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    I believe they have re-evaluated that idea and turned towards developing software instead to aid self driving vehicles...as opposed to building their own car.

    FB, Apple and Amazon...3 stocks I would not short.

    Retail is the short play, IMO.
    Macy's
    Nordstrom
    JCP
     
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  20. bleeckerboy, May 8, 2017

    bleeckerboy

    bleeckerboy Member

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    My play is similar, I drop $12.00 each on the 6/8 but regress to $6 each after the first hit. 2nd hit is same bet, then start pressing one unit at a time to a 3 unit max and start line and / or come bets. Keeps losses down and lets you in on hot rolls.
     
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