My odds problem

Discussion in 'Beginner Zone' started by Grizzoola, Apr 16, 2016.

  1. TDVegas, Apr 25, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    You're not a math or probabilities expert nor likely even a novice. Don't feel bad. Neither am I..my say is you are doing nothing more than guessing that the sequence of rolls is bias, rather than simple variance.

    I really don't believe you have the capabilities to make a bias determination. i think that has been noted by others. You're guessing, which is fine. It's still a guess.
     
    #81
  2. hartzehn22, Apr 26, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- "You're not a math or probabilities expert nor likely even a novice" Again you are twisting up the story. I never claimed to be a math expert but a simple application of statistics 101 works when you want to analyze craps numbers to see if there is any kind of significance. Track, analyze and interpret. It's not like I'm trying to figure out how to get to the moon.
     
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  3. hartzehn22, Apr 26, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV "noted by others?" Which "others" would that be? I can think of one person but not more than one? You seem to twist and tumble and float ideas out on this forum that do not actually represent the reality of what is being said on this forum. "You're guessing, which is fine. It's still a guess." I'm not guessing TDV- you are!
     
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  4. TDVegas, Apr 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    My point again...you have no way of knowing it is bias dice and not just plain, simple variance that has given what you call bias dice results. Even during an 8 hour session of recording results...those results can be shown to to be nothing more than variance. Meaning it will happen. Unless you get your hands on those dice...that is the only way you can be certain the dice are biased.

    Your only response to the following statement (offer) was..."huh"?

    Really?

    From tomp
    "if you want 8 hours or whatever hours of rolls, just input what your opinion is---or maybe better yet, if possible, use your own data---of the "average" number of rolls in that period and wincraps will spit out series after series of them for you...

    I GUARANTEE YOUthat you will find numerous--hundreds--of 8 hour series that would match your idea, your opinion, of what constitutes "ridiculous" distributions"
     
    #84
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
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  5. hartzehn22, Apr 26, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- I'll just have to cordially disagree with what you say as I am not going to report here on the forum findings of bias dice results. BUT let me ask you.....Why are you SO certain that casinos aren't using bias die? Do you really believe the casinos will follow the statutes you posted earlier on this board? WHOSE really holding the casinos accountable for implementing fair die? WHERE are the controls? WHO is conducting the oversight with each new sleeve of die as they are put out on the table? It is not difficult to test whether a dice is balanced or not. It takes less than a minute and yet it is rarely done.
     
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  6. hartzehn22, Apr 26, 2016

    hartzehn22

    hartzehn22 Member

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    TDV- it is simple to calculate the bias using Excel. Here's a partial example for you (please note this is not my example but a post by boymimbo on Wizardofvegas back in Feb 2nd 2013). The post exemplifies how easy it is to determine bias or not)...

    Type in the following formula in cell A1.
    =BINOMDIST(59,280,1/6,TRUE) (press enter)
    see the result:
    =.977649

    -59 is the number of 1s you threw (or any number)
    -280 is the number of trials (you are throwing two dice, that is two trials)
    -1/6 is the true probability of throwing that number
    -True means it's cumulative

    The answer shows the cumulative odds of throwing that number of rolls OR LESS. That means that only (1-.977649 = .022351) will throw more 1s than you.

    That puts you in the lucky range. When you start getting above 99% or <1%, you can claim very lucky. You could probably claim bias at the 0.1% range.......

    Please refer to the original post online for more information.
     
    #86
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  7. rudeboy99, Apr 26, 2016

    rudeboy99

    rudeboy99 Member

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    Does this bickering ever find an end? LMAO!
     
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  8. Druck

    Druck Member

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    No end ever reached.

    Lots of Good threads with some value get taken over with the BS.

    Yous disagree. Fine. Move on. Lots of wasted time and energy.
     
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  9. TDVegas, Apr 26, 2016

    TDVegas

    TDVegas Member

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    The end is reached...you just have to make your own conclusions based on the discussion. Like someone trying to convince others that chocolate is better than vanilla. You listen, taste and make your own conclusion.

    If you think there is a conclusion to the chocolate/vanilla argument...not sure what to tell you.

    Best thing to do is draw your own conclusion and never again look at that particular thread.
     
    #89
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2016
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